small cardamom seasonal report'2015 1 - commodity india · cardamom prices (market:...

Small Cardamom Seasonal Report 2015

Small Cardamom Seasonal Report 2015

Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd

#146, Ramaiah Street, 1

Near Anjenaya Tech Park, Airport Road, Kodihalli,

Bangalore – 560008 INDIA Tel: +91 080 25276152

web: www.CommodityIndia.com, www.fbspl.com

Small Cardamom Seasonal Report 2015-16

Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd

#146, Ramaiah Street, 1- 2 Floor, Gopal Towers

Tech Park, Airport Road, Kodihalli,

560008 INDIA Tel: +91 080 25276152-53, Fax: +91 080 25276154

web: www.CommodityIndia.com, www.fbspl.com

Table of contentExecutive summary

All India production

Small cardamom production scenario

Kerala

• Idukki

• Wayanad

Karnataka

• Kodagu

• Hassan

• Chikamagloure

Tamil nadu

• Theni

Arrivals and Sales trend

Peak season arrivals v/s prices

Cost of cultivation

Export and import scenario-India

Demand and supply –India

Guatemala production scenario

Export scenario-Guatemala

Cardamom price trend in international market (New York)

Technical views

Table of content

Small cardamom production scenario-

India


2

List of Figures:

1. Small Cardamom Area & Production

2. Area & Production – Kerala

3. Idukki Area & Production trend

4. Wayanad Area & Production trend

5. South West Monsoon –Idukki

6. Area & Production-Karnataka

7. Area & Production trend

8. Area & Production trend

9. Area & Production- trend Chikmagloure

10. .South West Monsoon - Kodagu

11. Area & Production- Tamilnadu

12. South West Monsoon – Theni

13. Arrivals and price trend during 2011





18. Cost of cultivation comparison

19. Small cardamom export-

19a. Cardamom olioresins

20. Indian small cardamom export destination

21. Indian small cardamom import trend

22. Cardamom area & production trend in Guatemala

23. Monthly rainfall at Coban

24. Average temperature across Coban

25. Cardamom export trend in

26. Price trend of Indian extra bold

27. Price trend of fancy green

List of Tables:

1. Replant ion and rejuvenation area across Kerala,Tamilnadu and Karnataka

2. Pre monsoon weekly rainfall



5. Arrivals and sales trend at Vandanmedu and Bodi auction centers

5a. Arrivals and production comparison

5b. Arrivals and price comparison

6. Factors changes in cost of cultivation

7. Cardamom cost of cultivation

Small Cardamom Area & Production- India

Kerala

Idukki Area & Production trend

Wayanad Area & Production trend

Idukki

Karnataka

Area & Production trend –Kodagu

Area & Production trend –Hassan

trend Chikmagloure

Kodagu

Tamilnadu

Theni

d during 2011

Arrivals and price trend during 2012




Cost of cultivation comparison

India

19a. Cardamom olioresins export-India

Indian small cardamom export destination

Indian small cardamom import trend

Cardamom area & production trend in Guatemala

Monthly rainfall at Coban-Alta verapaz

Average temperature across Coban- Alta verapaz

Cardamom export trend in Guatemala

Price trend of Indian extra bold

Price trend of fancy green

Replant ion and rejuvenation area across Kerala,Tamilnadu and Karnataka

Pre monsoon weekly rainfall-Idduki region

Pre monsoon weekly rainfall-Kodagu region

n weekly rainfall-Theni region

Arrivals and sales trend at Vandanmedu and Bodi auction centers

5a. Arrivals and production comparison

5b. Arrivals and price comparison

6. Factors changes in cost of cultivation

ation-(Idukki) Kerala.

3

Replant ion and rejuvenation area across Kerala,Tamilnadu and Karnataka

Executive summary:

For the first time Indian small cardamom

production has crossed 20 thousands

tonnes in current crop year of 2015-

Small cardamom production is estimated

to be around 22,000 tonnes which is 29%

higher than the previous year production

of 17,000 tonnes. In current crop season (2015

is same as previous year area.

Good and supportive rainfall (March to May) improved the

in 2008-09 reached its peak yielding

India’s carry forward stocks of small cardamom

is 10% less than 2014-15 carry forward stock of 3800 tonnes

around 350 tonnes, lower than the 4

Total supply for 2015-16 seasons is estimated to be around 25

years supply. Exports are estimated to be

ground), from 2014-15 exports of 4036 tonnes, due to benign prices and lower anticipated Guatemala

crop. Domestic consumption for 2015

than the previous year demand of 13

In current crop season, Guatemala cardamom production is estimated to be around 28

which is lesser than the 4 years average production of 34

declined due to dry spell in the flowering and fruit setting season.

For the first time Indian small cardamom

production has crossed 20 thousands

-16.

mall cardamom production is estimated

which is 29%

the previous year production

tonnes. In current crop season (2015-16) area is estimated to be around 72,000

Good and supportive rainfall (March to May) improved the yield. Besides, crop replanted and

ing period across the growing regions in India.

of small cardamom for 2015-16 is estimated to be around 3424 tonnes which

carry forward stock of 3800 tonnes. Small cardamom imports

than the 4-year average import of 500 tonnes.

is estimated to be around 25,774 tonnes which is highest in the last 4

. Exports are estimated to be grow by 7% to around 4300 tonnes (neither crushed nor

15 exports of 4036 tonnes, due to benign prices and lower anticipated Guatemala

. Domestic consumption for 2015-16 is estimated to be around 14,000 tonnes, which is 2% higher

than the previous year demand of 13,800 tonnes.

In current crop season, Guatemala cardamom production is estimated to be around 28,

which is lesser than the 4 years average production of 34,250 metric tonnes. Production has mainly

ue to dry spell in the flowering and fruit setting season.

4

,000 hectares which

replanted and rejuvenated

around 3424 tonnes which

are expected to be

which is highest in the last 4

around 4300 tonnes (neither crushed nor

15 exports of 4036 tonnes, due to benign prices and lower anticipated Guatemala

which is 2% higher

,000 metric tonnes

duction has mainly

Small cardamom production outlook:

India’s small cardamom production for the crop year

2015-16 is estimated to be around 22,000

higher than the previous year production of 17

tonnes. In current crop season

estimated to be around 72 thousands

same as previous year area.

Yield for the current crop season (2015

increased to 306kg/ha which is 30% high

previous year yield of 263kg/ha.

From 2008-09 spices board has started the

plantation and rejuvenation of old and uneconomic

plants for better productivity. So far (2008

spices board has covered an area of 14905 hectares

under the replantation and 3503 hectares under rejuvenation (Ref .Table5). However

60%) had reached its high yielding stage across Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil nadu r

crop yield is estimated around 700-800kg/ha).

Good rains during Mar-May’15 (summer rains) across the cardamom growing regions (Kerala and

Tamilnadu) followed by uniform distribution of rainfall across the growing regions during the monsoo

season (Jun- Sep’15) was supportive to

diseases is estimated to be around 5

Cardamom prices (Market: Vandanmedu) during the crop year 2014

965/Kg

Small cardamom production outlook:

production for the crop year

imated to be around 22,000 tonnes, 29%

higher than the previous year production of 17,000

In current crop season (2015-16) area is

72 thousands hectares which is

for the current crop season (2015-16) has

which is 30% higher than the

09 spices board has started the re-

ion and rejuvenation of old and uneconomic

So far (2008-2015)

spices board has covered an area of 14905 hectares

under the replantation and 3503 hectares under rejuvenation (Ref .Table5). However, now that crop (55

high yielding stage across Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil nadu r

800kg/ha).

ay’15 (summer rains) across the cardamom growing regions (Kerala and

wed by uniform distribution of rainfall across the growing regions during the monsoo

Sep’15) was supportive to cardamom flowering and fruit set. Damage

diseases is estimated to be around 5-10%.

Cardamom prices (Market: Vandanmedu) during the crop year 2014-15 traded in the range of Rs

5

now that crop (55-

high yielding stage across Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil nadu regions (replanted

ay’15 (summer rains) across the cardamom growing regions (Kerala and

wed by uniform distribution of rainfall across the growing regions during the monsoon

Damage due to pest and

15 traded in the range of Rs 595-

Small cardamom production scenario

Kerala

Kerala’s small cardamom production for 2015

estimated to be around 18,000 tonnes as against

15 production of 13,000 tonnes. Area for the current

crop season is expected to be remains same as previous

year area of 41,760 hectares.

Yield for the current crop is estimated to be around

431kg/ha which is higher than the last five years

average yield of 278kg/ha.

Idukki region production during 2015

be around 15,000 tonnes as against the previous

production of 11,400 tonnes.

Wayanad and others regions production

is estimated to be around 2,000 tonnes.

Replanted crop had reached its high yielding

Kerala region. Therefore production could increase as

compared to previous year production level.

Small cardamom production is mainly influenced by

pre monsoon (March-May) rain.

crop season 2015-16, Idukki regions

rainfall between 11th March and 27th

Higher yield from replanted crop further

However, crop damage of around 10

reported due to heavy rainfall accompanied by strong

production scenario

production for 2015-16 is

tonnes as against 2014-

Area for the current

crop season is expected to be remains same as previous

Yield for the current crop is estimated to be around

431kg/ha which is higher than the last five years

2015-16 is estimated to

tonnes as against the previous year

and others regions production for 2015-16

tonnes.

high yielding period in

Kerala region. Therefore production could increase as

previous year production level.

mainly influenced by

During the current

regions received adequate

th May (ref .Table2).

further supported higher production.

around 10-15% was

accompanied by strong

6

winds recived during 2nd week of June

Karnataka

Kodagu, Hassan and Chikamagloure are

cardamom growing regions in Karnataka.

Cardamom is mainly cultivated as

between coffee and areca nut across Karnataka

regions.

Karnataka cardamom production for the current

crop season 2015-16 is estimated to be around

2200 tonnes as against the previous year

production of 1700 tonnes.

In current season, area remains same as previous

year area of 25,080 ha. Yield for the current crop

year is estimated to be around 88kg/ha as against

the previous year yield of 68kg/ha.

In Kodgu region, production for the current crop

year 2015-16 is estimated to be around 1400

tonnes as against the previous year production of

900 tonnes.

In Hassan region, cardamom production for the

current crop season 2015-16 is e

around 635 tonnes as against the previous year


In Chikamagloure region, cardamom production

for the current crop season 2015-16 is estimated to

be around 165 tonnes as against the previous year


week of June till 4th week June (ref fig 5).

hikamagloure are the main

cardamom growing regions in Karnataka.

as an intercrop

across Karnataka

Karnataka cardamom production for the current

estimated to be around

2200 tonnes as against the previous year

area remains same as previous

ha. Yield for the current crop

year is estimated to be around 88kg/ha as against

production for the current crop

16 is estimated to be around 1400

tonnes as against the previous year production of

cardamom production for the

estimated to be

around 635 tonnes as against the previous year

cardamom production

16 is estimated to

be around 165 tonnes as against the previous year

7

In current season, Kodagu region received

3 & fig 10). So far crop condition is good across Karnataka regions

Tamil nadu

� Tamil nadu cardamom production for the

current crop season 2015-16 is est

around 1800 tonnes, 39% high

2014-15 season production

� Yield is estimated to increase

2015-16, against 252 kg/ha

� Rainfall during the curre

supportive though the crop cycle

and pest are minimal.

received good rains, supporting the flowering and fruit set

So far crop condition is good across Karnataka regions.

production for the

16 is estimated to be

39% higher compared to

15 season production of 1300 tonnes.

is estimated to increase to 349kg/ha in

in 2014-15.

Rainfall during the current season was

he crop cycle in Theni region (ref table 4 & fig12). Damages due to diseases

8

the flowering and fruit setting (ref table

amages due to diseases

Arrivals and sales trend:

� Cardamom plants normally start bearing capsule from 3

at an interval of 30 days.

� Normally harvesting season

harvesting starts from September.

� Peak arrivals season starts from

� Good export demand will pick up after the 2

� Arrival and sales growth rate

Total arrivals and sales were more compared to

produce is recycled. Some reasons for recycled are a).if

poor/inferior quality/growers not satisfied with offered price

once again. b) The product which wa

The above mentioned reasons create mismatches between arrivals, sales and production.

Cardamom plants normally start bearing capsule from 3rd year of planting, picking is carried out

harvesting season across Kerala regions starts from August while in Karnataka region

from September.

s from end of September.

export demand will pick up after the 2nd round picking.

Arrival and sales growth rate shows positive growth trend from last 4 years (ref.

otal arrivals and sales were more compared to total supply because during auction nearly

. Some reasons for recycled are a).if quantity unsold during the auction due to

poor/inferior quality/growers not satisfied with offered price then it will come back to the

b) The product which was rejecting by exporters will also come to the market (Ref.Table5a).


9

year of planting, picking is carried out

rom August while in Karnataka region

(ref. table 5)

auction nearly 15% of the

quantity unsold during the auction due to

the auction centers

by exporters will also come to the market (Ref.Table5a).


Peak season arrivals and prices trend

During the current year 2015 (August

higher than the same period of previous year arrivals of 1768 tonnes. Prices for the current crop year

season (August-September) traded around Rs 620

period of previous year of Rs 734-795 per

trend(Vandanmedu& Bodi markets):

(August-September) total arrivals were around 2899 tonnes which is 64% s


September) traded around Rs 620-664/kg which is lower than the pr

795 per kg (ref .table5b)

10

September) total arrivals were around 2899 tonnes which is 64% s


the price for the same

Cost of cultivation:

Idukki region

� Cost of cultivation mainly

on maintenance

costs.

� For the current crop year (2015

cost of cultivation have

calculated based on Idukki region

yield of 450 kg/ha. According to our

estimate, overall cost is around Rs

504 /kg as against the previous year

cost of Rs 635/kg (ref.table7

� However overall total cost is to be around Rs 2

previous year total cost of cultivation of 2

average total cost of Rs 187692/ha. But cost per kg has declined due to increased of yield

in current season (ref.fig18

� In current crop year labor wages

marginally as comp

cultivation mainly depends

and processing

For the current crop year (2015-16),

cultivation have been

calculated based on Idukki region

yield of 450 kg/ha. According to our

overall cost is around Rs

504 /kg as against the previous year

ref.table7)

However overall total cost is to be around Rs 2,15,966/ha which is 5% higher

previous year total cost of cultivation of 2,05,966/ha and also so higher than the 4


(ref.fig18).

crop year labor wages, fertilizer cost and processing cost have

marginally as compared to previous year (ref. table 6)

11

966/ha which is 5% higher than the

a and also so higher than the 4-year


and processing cost have increased

Small cardamom export scenario:

� India is second the largest exporter of

cardamom across the world.

� During 2014-15, cardamom crop output

declined in Guatemala, creating

demand for Indian small cardamom in

international market.

� In 2014-15 small cardamom (neither

crushed nor ground) exports

increased to 4026 tonnes (ref.fig

against the previous year e

tonnes.

In 2014-15 cardamom oleoresins export

from India were around 11 thousands

which is lesser than the previous year

export of 14.68 thousands tonnes and also

lesser than the 4 years average

14.81 tonnes.(ref:fig19a)

� The main international markets where our Indian cardamom sold are: Saudi Arabia, U.A.E,

Pakistan, and U.S.A and followed by UK (ref fig 20

Import scenario:

� In 2014-15 small cardamom imports

were around 450 tonnes (ref.fig21

which is lesser than the four

average import of 500 tonnes.

� To discourage the cheap quality

cardamom imports, the government has

Small cardamom export scenario:

India is second the largest exporter of

cardamom across the world.

cardamom crop output

creating more

demand for Indian small cardamom in

15 small cardamom (neither

crushed nor ground) exports from India

increased to 4026 tonnes (ref.fig19) as

year exports of 3600

15 cardamom oleoresins export

from India were around 11 thousands

which is lesser than the previous year

export of 14.68 thousands tonnes and also

lesser than the 4 years average export of

The main international markets where our Indian cardamom sold are: Saudi Arabia, U.A.E,

.A and followed by UK (ref fig 20).

15 small cardamom imports

ref.fig21)

four years

tonnes.

To discourage the cheap quality

, the government has

12

The main international markets where our Indian cardamom sold are: Saudi Arabia, U.A.E,

fixed a minimum cost insurance freight value (CIF) of Rs 500 a kg for the imported cardamom.

� It has also imposed a duty of 70% on small and large cardamom imports

� However import of cardamom for the current crop year 2015

tonnes.

Demand and supply outlook:

� Stock carry forward (

year) for the current crop is

lower than the last

stocks of 3800 tonnes.

� In the current season productions is

30% higher than the last


� Import are projected to

import of 350 tonnes.

� Total supply is estimated to be around

supply of 21250 tonnes.

� Export for the current crop season

� Domestic consumption for the current crop year is

consumption of 13800 tonnes.

� However carry forward stock to next

previous year carry forward of 3424 tonnes


imposed a duty of 70% on small and large cardamom imports.

However import of cardamom for the current crop year 2015-16 is estimated to be around 350

forward (from previous

year) for the current crop is 10%

year carry forward

stocks of 3800 tonnes.

current season productions is

% higher than the last year

000 tonnes.

Import are projected to be around 350 tonnes which is 22% lesser than the last

tonnes.

estimated to be around 25,774 tonnes which is higher than the previous year total

Export for the current crop season is 7% higher than the previous year exports of 4020 tonnes.

for the current crop year is 1.5% higher than the last year domestic

consumption of 13800 tonnes.

However carry forward stock to next is estimated to be 7474 tonnes which is higher than the

previous year carry forward of 3424 tonnes(ref.table8) .

13


16 is estimated to be around 350

% lesser than the last year

previous year total

of 4020 tonnes.

than the last year domestic

is estimated to be 7474 tonnes which is higher than the

Global outlook:

.

� Guatemala is the world’s largest producer,

consumer and exporter of cardamom

followed by India.

� For the year 2015-16, cardamom area is

unchanged at previous year area of 69

hectares but production is expected to be

28,000 metric tonnes which is 7% less of

previous year production o

tonnes (ref.fig22).

� Guatemala cardamom production

distributed as follows

� Alta Verapaz 68%, Quiche 14 %,

Huehuetenango 8%, Izabal 4 %, Baja

Verapaz 2%, and other departments of the

republic adding the remaining 4 %.

� In current season, Coban place (AltaVerpaz

Department) has received less rainfall, when

crop has reached to flowering season (May

July) (ref.Fig23).

� Cardamom crop is very sensitive to tem

� In Guatemala, optimum growth and development is observed in warm and humid condition

temperature range of 18-23.5°C.

Guatemala is the world’s largest producer,

consumer and exporter of cardamom

cardamom area is

unchanged at previous year area of 69,510

hectares but production is expected to be

tric tonnes which is 7% less of

previous year production of 30,000 metric

Guatemala cardamom production is

Alta Verapaz 68%, Quiche 14 %,

, Izabal 4 %, Baja

2%, and other departments of the

republic adding the remaining 4 %.

oban place (AltaVerpaz

Department) has received less rainfall, when

ring season (May-

very sensitive to temperature fluctuation.

In Guatemala, optimum growth and development is observed in warm and humid condition

23.5°C. However, current crop season temperature is normal (ref.fig

14

In Guatemala, optimum growth and development is observed in warm and humid condition

current crop season temperature is normal (ref.fig24)

Guatemala export scenario:

� Guatemala exports 95% of

production.

� During 2014-15(Sep-June) total exports

around 28,500 tonnes for the value of 235

million dollars as against the same period of

2013-14 export of 38,850 tonnes and value of

217 million dollars (ref.fig25).

� Main importers are U S A, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Lebanon, Germany Kuwait, Pakistan, Jordan,

UK, UAE, Syria, Egypt, Switzerland, England, and India, among others are importing of cardamom

from Guatemala.


Cardamom extra bold 6-7mm grade traded weak at

New York spot market. The average prices have

violated last year price level of $12.26/kg. So it

great opportunity for bulk buying as prices are

attractive and going forward one could expect lower

level of $10-9/Kg. In near term,

cardamom average prices to trade in the range of $

9/Kg.(ref fig.26)

Similarly Fancy Green Cardamom cou

the zone of $7.25/Kg and further downside looks

limited and one could enter bulk contract around

current levels of $7.25/Kg.(ref.fig27)

95% of its cardamom

June) total exports were

500 tonnes for the value of 235

million dollars as against the same period of

export of 38,850 tonnes and value of

, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Lebanon, Germany Kuwait, Pakistan, Jordan,


Cardamom price trend in international market (New York):

7mm grade traded weak at

New York spot market. The average prices have

violated last year price level of $12.26/kg. So it is a

great opportunity for bulk buying as prices are

attractive and going forward one could expect lower

one could expect

cardamom average prices to trade in the range of $13-

Similarly Fancy Green Cardamom could stabilize in

the zone of $7.25/Kg and further downside looks

limited and one could enter bulk contract around

(ref.fig27)

15

, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Lebanon, Germany Kuwait, Pakistan, Jordan,


Technical review:

Cardamom average prices at Puttady market continue to struggle for most part

traded around Rs.655/kg. Chart action hints at consolidation pattern above base support of Rs.600/kg. So

as long this level is valid, the buyers will be interested in the counter. While on the higher side Rs.700

750/kg looks possible, only on breach of this level, cardamom average price is going to test Rs.800/kg.

MACD hint at sluggishness in prices as it lies in negative territory.

could be around Rs.600/kg.

Similarly best cardamom price at Putta

accumulation/consolidation above key support of Rs.850

this level, buyer will be active and ideal purchase price could be around Rs.800/kg. However below

Rs.750/kg, the price risk could widen till Rs.700

sustain above Rs.1000/kg, which could take it towards Rs.1100

Cardamom average prices at Puttady market continue to struggle for most part of 2015. Currently it is


as long this level is valid, the buyers will be interested in the counter. While on the higher side Rs.700

le, only on breach of this level, cardamom average price is going to test Rs.800/kg.

MACD hint at sluggishness in prices as it lies in negative territory. Ideal seasonal purchase

Similarly best cardamom price at Puttady is ruling around Rs.950/kg. It is witnessing

key support of Rs.850-750/kg. As long as best cardamom trades above


g, the price risk could widen till Rs.700-660/kg. To witness substantial rally, the buying should

sustain above Rs.1000/kg, which could take it towards Rs.1100-1200/kg.

16

of 2015. Currently it is


as long this level is valid, the buyers will be interested in the counter. While on the higher side Rs.700-

le, only on breach of this level, cardamom average price is going to test Rs.800/kg.

Ideal seasonal purchase price level

dy is ruling around Rs.950/kg. It is witnessing

best cardamom trades above


660/kg. To witness substantial rally, the buying should

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