smallsats by the numbers 2020 - bryce...smaller satellites are of increasing interest; more widely...

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Smallsats by the Numbers 2020


Overview

  Introduction

  2019 Smallsat Highlights

Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)

  Commercial Smallsats

  Government Smallsats

  Non-Profit and Academic Smallsats

  Looking Forward: Areas To Watch


Introduction

  Smaller satellites are of increasing interest; more widely used in recent years

  Bryce’s Smallsats by the Numbers presents historical information on smaller satellites launched 2012-2019 (regardless of operational status)

  Definition used here, 600 kg and under, reflects the five smallest mass classes defined by the FAA

  ‘Smallsat’ or ‘very small satellite’ are often used to refer to smaller satellites

Mass Class Name Kilograms (kg)

Femto 0.01 – 0.09

Pico 0.1 – 1

Nano 1.1 – 10

Micro 11 – 200

Mini 201 – 600

Small 601 – 1,200

Medium 1,201 – 2,500

Intermediate 2,501 – 4,200

Large 4,201 – 5,400

Heavy 5,401 – 7,000

Extra Heavy > 7,001

From FAA The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2018

Smal

lsat

s


26%

32%

37%

3% 2%

average smallsat mass, nearly 2x increase from 2018, 6x increase from 2017

of smallsats launched by U.S. launch providers

dedicated smallsat launches, almost half by China

of launches included smallsats, nearly doubling from 24% in 2012

28

45%

109 kg

57%Smallsats by Use

389 Smallsats Launched

Remote Sensing

Technology Development

Communications

ScientificOther/Unknown

2019 Smallsat Highlights


Smallsat usage began to increase in 2012

smallsats launched

increase in proportion of upmass represented by smallsats over 7 years

of smallsats provide commercial services

Government and commercial sectors are increasingly using smallsats

52%

1,700+

11x

Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)Highlights


The Big Picture of Smallsats: Smallsats in Context

52

130

195173

126

338 328

389

0

100

200

300

400

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Smallsat (.01-600 kg) Small (601-1,200 kg) Medium (1,201-2,500 kg)

Intermediate (2,501-4,200 kg) Large (4,201-5,400 kg) Heavy (5,401-7000 kg)

Extra Heavy (7,000+ kg)

Num

ber

of

Spac

ecra

ft L

aunc

hed



Number of Smallsats by Mass Class

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Femto (.01-.09) Pico (.1-1) Nano (1.1-10) Micro (11-200) Mini (201-600)

Num

ber

of

Smal

lsat

s La

unch

ed



Share of Smallsats by Mass Class

3% 4% 3%

29%29%

6%6%

10% 5%12% 6%

21%

37%

67%65%

58%

83%

59%

38%

33%

14%

21% 17%24%

9%

18%

16%

17% 17%

7% 8% 8%2%

9%

37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Femto (.01-.09 kg) Pico (.1-1 kg) Nano (1.1-10 kg) Micro (11-200 kg) Mini (201-600 kg)

Per

cent

age

of

Tota

l Num

ber

of

Smal

lsat

s



Share of Smallsats by Use

Planet owned 55% of remote sensing smallsats launched; SpaceX owned nearly 50% of communications smallsats

17%9%

54%

39%

53%

66%

38%

26%

52%58%

28%

43%

36%

30%

40%

32%

12% 11%

10% 10%11%

38%

15% 18%

7% 6% 10% 6%3%4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 5% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Remote Sensing Technology Development Communications Scientific Other/Unknown

Per

cent

age

of

Smal

lsat

s La

unch

ed



Number of Smallsats by Operator Type

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Commercial Academic Government-Civil Government-Military Non-Profit

Num

ber

of

Smal

lsat

s La

unch

ed


Share of smallsats providing commercial services grew from 6% in 2012 to 62% in 2019


Average Smallsat Mass

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mas

s o

f Sm

alls

ats

Laun

ched

(K

ilo

gra

ms)



Smallsats as Percentage of Total UpmassSmallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Percentage of Total Upmass

Represented by Smallsats

1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 5% 11%

In 2019, smallsats made up 11% of all mass launched into orbit


60%

10%

4%

4%

3%

14%

Percentage of Smallsats by Operating Country

Each 1%AustraliaCanadaIndiaSouth KoreaUK


USA

China

Japan

Russia

Germany

1,731Smallsats Launched

(2012 – 2019)


45%

18%

18%

11%

5%

2%

Percentage and Number of Smallsats by Country of Launch Provider

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

USA India Russia China Japan Europe Iran North Korea Israel

Num

ber

of

Spac

ecra

ft


USA

India

Russia

China

JapanEurope

≤1%IranNorth KoreaIsrael

1,731Smallsats Launched

(2012 – 2019)

Rocket Lab is headquartered in the U.S. with a subsidiary in New Zealand. It is counted here as a U.S. company


Percentage of Launches With Smallsats

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Launches Without Smallsats Launches With Smallsats Percentage of Launches With Smallsats

Tota

l Num

ber

of

Laun

ches

Percentag

e of Launches w

ith Smallsats



63% 61%

95%

74%

84%92%

87%80%

37% 39%

5%

26%

16%8%

13%20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Medium-Heavy Launch Vehicle Small Launch Vehicle

Per

cent

age

of

Laun

ches


Medium-Heavy Launch Vehicles (Capacity >2,268 kg)*

Small Launch VehiclesVehicles (Capacity ≤2,268 kg)* *FAA definitions of medium-heavy and small launch vehicles

Share of Smallsats by Launch Vehicle Category


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Percent of Smallsat Launches that were Dedicated Dedicated Smallsat Launches

Per

cent

age

of

Smal

lsat

Lau

nche

s th

at w

ere

Ded

icat

edN

umb

er of D

edicated

Launches


Launches Dedicated to Smallsats


Percentage of Smallsats Launched that are CubeSats

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Per

cent

age

of

Smal

lsat

s la

unch

ed t

hat

are

Cub

eSat

s



64%

15%

7%

7%5%

Share of CubeSats by Dimension

3U

1U

2U

6U

1.5U ≤1%All Others


CubeSats are a “kit” form of smallsat with a standard form factor•  1 kg, 10-centimeter cube = 1

unit = 1U•  Can combine to form larger

CubeSats (e.g. 3U, 6U, more)

1,126CubeSats Launched

(2012 – 2019)


Number of CubeSats Launched Directly into Orbit vs Deployed From ISS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Launched Directly to Orbit Launched to be Deployed from ISS

Num

ber

of

Cub

eSat

s La

unch

ed



Commercial Smallsats

commercial smallsats launched, 2012 – 2019

owned by Planet, SpaceX, Spire (largest smallsat operators)

manufactured by U.S. companies

for remote sensing

81%

68%

899

70%

Highlights


80

22

140

Commercial Smallsats by Use

243 Commercial

Smallsats Launched in 2019

Remote Sensing Technology Development Communications Scientific Other/Unknown

21%

87%

76%

97% 93%

61%

33%33%

57%

5%

9%

2%5%

20%

9%

67%

14%

8%16%

16%

58%

7%

2%2%1%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Commercial Smallsats1Other/Unknown

Per

cent

age

of

Co

mm

erci

al S

mal

lsat

s La

unch

ed

Num

ber o

f Co

mm

ercial Smalllsats Launched

Number of Smallsats


43%

14%

13%

30%

Percentage by Operator

113 Commercial

Operators

899Commercial

Smallsats Launched (2012 – 2019)

Commercial Smallsats


Government Smallsats

owned by U.S. government (about 1/3 NASA)

governments (including Europe) own smallsats42

38%

government smallsats launched 2012 – 2019353

Highlights


Total Number of Government Smallsats (2012 – 2019)

Six or Fewer Government Smallsats

Iran Vietnam

Canada Egypt

South Korea Ecuador

Norway Singapore

France Belarus

Australia Argentina

Algeria Philippines

North Korea Ethiopia

Israel Colombia

United Kingdom Malaysia

Poland Kazakhstan

Brazil Spain

Turkey Mexico

Saudi Arabia Pakistan

UAE Peru

Indonesia Rwanda

Italy Sweden

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USA China Russia Japan India Germany Europe Taiwan

Num

ber

of

Go

vern

men

t Sm

alls

ats



Largest Government Smallsat Operators

Type Operator# of Satellites Launched

2012 – 2019

Civil

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 51

Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) 22

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), US 16

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) 12

Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) 9

Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR) 7

European Space Agency (ESA) 7

National Space Program Office (NSPO), Taiwan 7

Military (based on public sources)

US DoD 58

Russia Ministry of Defence 21

People's Liberation Army (PLA), China 22

Project Biarri, Australia 3

Korean People's Army 3



Academic and Non-Profit Smallsats

smallsats launched by academic (348) and non-profit (111) organizations 2012 – 2019

academic (189) and non-profit (53) organizations own smallsats (often only one or two)

for technology development

242

~80%

459

Highlights


Number of Academic Smallsats by Institution

Nearly 190 academic operators launched smallsats 2012 – 2019

Num

ber

of

Aca

dem

ic S

mal

lsat

s

Academic and Non-Profit Smallsats

Delete Cal Poly and (SJSU) Either delete (Beijing) from Tsighun, or add (city) or (country) to others

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Kyushu Institute of Technology

Technical University of

Berlin

University of Colorado at

Boulder

California Polytechnic

State University

Nanyang Technical University

San Jose State University

Tsinghua University

University of Toronto

Nearly 190 academic operators launched smallsats 2012 – 2019


Business Outcomes Smallsat business ventures of all types continue efforts to prove both their business models and their ability to generate

significant revenue. Financial outcomes of today’s smallsat companies will impact the long-term smallsat market

Communications Constellations Smallsat telecommunications operators have said they plan to launch tens of thousands of smallsats. Initial

deployment of these large constellations will dominate smallsat activity in the next few years

Small Launch Vehicles Dozens of new small launch vehicles (many <500kg capacity) are in development to launch smallsats. Governments are

increasingly interested in small launch vehicles. Among commercial customers, competition from larger vehicles and uncertainty in smallsat business cases will shape the market

Orbital DebrisLarge smallsat constellations raise concerns about orbital debris. How businesses and policy makers respond

to debris risk will be a trend to watch in 2020

Looking Forward: Areas To Watch


Bryce Space and Technology

DC Metro • Chicago • London(703) 647-8078 [email protected]

@BryceSpaceTech

linkedin.com/company/bryce-space-tech

www.brycetech.com

Bryce Space and Technology partners with technology and advanced R&D clients to deliver mission and business success.

Bryce Space and Technology has partnered with technology and R&D clients to deliver mission and business success for nearly 20 years. Bryce combines core competencies in analytics and engineering with domain expertise. Our teams help government agencies, Fortune 500 firms, and investors manage complex programs, develop IT tools, and forecast critical outcomes. We offer clients proprietary, research-based models that predict critical outcomes and enable evidence-based decision making. Bryce cultivates a culture of engagement and partnership with our clients.

smallsats by the numbers 2020 - bryce...smaller satellites are of increasing interest; more widely...

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