So what is a public opinion poll?

Poll

A scientifically-sampled survey to assess public opinion or to forecast an

election's outcome.

• 3 Rules of polling:• 1)Sample Group Valid (people

randomly selected)• 2)Good un-biased questions• 3)Good communication by

questioner (don’t lead or push)*Internet polls are crud + invalid!

How is it done?

• For a poll to be accurate, it must be based upon a representative, randomized sample, employ valid or reliable questions, and have polling personnel carefully communicate with those interviewed.

• First, a representative sample is chosen through the process of random selection, which is basically a lottery system whereby every individual in the population (by age, religion, race, living area, etc.) in the nation has an equal mathematical chance of being included in the sample, just as in a lottery every number has the same probability of being selected.

• If the national sample is large enough (typically 1200-1500 people interviewed) and is truly randomly formed, then those laws of probability state that final opinion results will be satisfactory, usually within a small margin of error-typically no more than plus or minus 3 to 5 percent in national polls.

Sample Group

• 1)Randomly selected• 2)Large enough group (1200-

1500)• ***If truly randomly selected, a

group large enough will guarantee results of opinions expressed to within 3-4% error.

• How are individuals in the sample chosen? One of the most simple and inexpensive methods is to use computerized random digit dialing that automatically chooses telephone numbers.

• Second, the manner in which questions are phrased is quite important to a poll's final results. Questions that are emotionally loaded can predetermine responses from those being interviewed. EX: THE EAGLES ARE THE BEST AREN’T THEY???

• For example, the question "Do you agree with a woman's freedom of choice to have an abortion?" will elicit different responses than will the question "Do you agree with a woman's right to murder her unborn child by means of an abortion?"

• Third, questioners conducting polls through face-to-face interviews, or over the phone, must avoid contaminating truthful responses through their voice inflections, pre-existing attitudes toward the questions asked, or unintentional coaching of interviewees.

• When asking your questions or making your questionairre, do not use emotional wording or push person in one way or another.

• Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

• Accepted Responses

• Approve

• Disapprove

• Don’t Know

• Refused to answer

• Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

•

• Approve

• Disapprove

• Don’t Know

• Refuse to answer

• In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

•

• Satisfied

• Dissatisfied

• Don’t Know

• Refuse to answer

• In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in your personal life at this time?) [IF SATISFIED/DISSATISFIED, ASK:] Are you very (satisfied/dissatisfied), or just somewhat (satisfied/dissatisfied)?

• Generally speaking, how happy would you say you are -- Very happy, Fairly happy, or Not too happy?

•

• Very happy

• Fairly happy

• Not too happy