social-economic differentials of the dying risk of the oldest- old chinese 1998-2002 liu, guiping...
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Social-economic Differentials of the Dying Risk of the oldest-old Chinese 1998-2002
Liu, Guiping
Max-Planck-Institute for Demographic Research
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Summary • 1. Briefing the existing studies • 2. A simple framework• 3. Data and method • 4. Variables and descriptive statistics• 5. Statistical outcomes• 6. Main findings• 7. Brief discussion
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1.Briefing the existing studies
• 1. Kannisto (1994) reported the differentials of mortality at high ages in developed countries. No social economic factors were involved.
• 2. Martelin, Koskinen, Valkonen (1998): the dying risk of the oldest-old Finish is significantly associated with income level, educational attainment, occupational experience,marital status, residential place,linguistic attachment.
• 3. The similar researches in developing countries are rare.
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2.A simple framework
•
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3. Data and method
• Data: the second wave of Chines Healthy Longevity Survey 2000– Starting time of the observation:1998 base-line
survey
• Method: Cox Proportional Hazard Model
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4.Variables
• Variables:– age group, sex , place of birth,ethnicity;– years of education, number of children ever
born; number of biological siblings, birth orders, main occupation before age 60;
– marital status, living arrangement, main source of financial support,
– self-rated health status.
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5. The descriptive statistics • Majority of the oldest-old were born in countryside;
• Hans account for major proportion of the interviewees;
• A few people received education longer than seven years;
• Fifty percent of the interviewees were farm labors before age 60;
• Eighty percent of the interviewees were taken care by children, grand-children, or children-in-law when they were ill;
• Eighty-four percent of the oldest-old are living with household members;
• Sixty-five percent of the oldest-old depended on their children financially.
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6. Statistical outcomes (1)
• Age group relative risk of dying– 80-84(ref.) 1.00– 85-89 1.27*– 90-94 1.73*– 95-99 2.27*– 100-101 2.74*– 102-105 2.82*– 106 and older 3.04*
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6. Statistical outcomes (2)
• sex relative risk of dying– Male ( ref.) 1.00– Female 0.81*
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6. Statistical outcomes (3) •
• place of birth relative risk of dying– urban areas ( ref.) 1.00– rural areas 1.11*
• ethnicity – Hans (ref.) 1.00– minority groups 0.84*
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6. Statistical outcomes (4)
• Marital status relative risk of dying– married, living with spouses ( Ref.) 1.00– separated or divorced 1.27– widowed 1.41*– never married 1.10
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6. Statistical outcomes (5)
• Years of education relative risk– 0 year (ref.) 1.00 – 1-6 years 0.90*– 7 years or more 0.92
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6. Statistical outcomes (6)• Main occupation before age 60 relative risk
– professional & technical personnel ( ref.) 1.00– governments, management 1.26– farm labors, forest, husbandry,fishery workers 1.34*– manufacture workers 1.42*– commercial or services workers 1.48*– househusband or housewife 1.54*– other 1.61*
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6. Statistical outcomes (7) • Main source of financial support relative risk
– retirement pension ( ref. 1.00– spouse 1.08– children 0.97– grand-children 1.06– other relative 1.00– local governments or community 0.94– still on work 0.50*– others 1.17
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6. Statistical outcomes (8) • No.of biological siblings relative risk
– 0 ( ref. ) 1.00– 1 0.95– 2 0.93– 3 0.95– 4 0.91– 5 0.84*– 6 or more 0.82*
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6. Statistical outcomes (9)
• Birth order relative risk– 1st ( ref. ) 1.00– 2nd 0.98– 3rd 0.98– 4th 0.80*– 5th 0.91– 6th or higher 0.92
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6. Statistical outcomes (10)
• Self-rated health status relative risk of dying– very good ( ref. ) 1.00– good 1.15*– so-so 1.45*– poor or very poor 1.98*– not able to answer 2.38*
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7. Main findings • Social economic statuses are associated with
mortality of the oldest-old Chinese;• Lower social status, e.g, born in rural areas;
manual workers, expose to higher risk of dying than do professionals and technicians;
• The widowed expose to high risk of dying;• Having more siblings indicate a lower risk of
dying;
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7.Main findings (continued)
• Those persons who were in birth order four show lower risk of dying, but we have no solid theory to explain the result;
• We did not find living arrangement, residential place, are associated with the dying risk of the oldest-old Chinese.
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8. Discussion
• Our study is based on the following background: – 1. The oldest-old is a highly selective groups;– 2. The length of the observation is around 24
months; – 3. A common statistical method is applied.
• Our study suggests that the early events in human life course have impacts on survival probability at age 80 and over.