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Future perfect:Managing thegovernance ofOlympic risk

Judith Rees:Coping witha changingclimate

Education:How homelife affectslearning

Pillow talkHave we

become anation of

insomniacs?

Society

owSPRING 2011 ISSUE 9

ESRC RESEARCH MAKING AN IMPACT

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REGULARS3 News

16 OpinionsThe power of the internet to mobiliseprotest; student protests and techniques for

crowd control

18 The UK by numbers: Health29 Information and updates

People; publications; news briefs; events

2 SOCIETY NOW SPRING 2011

Welcometo the Spring issue ofSociety Now, the ESRCsregular magazine that showcases the researchwe fund and the impact of social science.

As the rst ndings of the UnderstandingSociety survey are published, our main featureon page 10 looks at how working longer hoursis affecting our sleep and family life, potentiallyputting our health at risk.

This issue also includes a feature oneducation and social mobility why dochildren growing up in poorer households stillunderperform in school and eventually driftaway from education?

The work to assess and manage the complexrisks of staging the London 2012 OlympicGames is explained on page 20. And this issuealso includes two opinion pieces that lookat protest: what is the role of the internet ingalvanising protestors; and what can socialscience teach us about the best and leastprovocative ways to manage demonstrations?

I hope you nd the magazine enjoyableand informative. We always welcome letters,feedback and ideas for content.

Nick Stevens, Editor

10 14

16 20

24 26

The views andstatementsexpressed in thispublication arethose of the authors

and not necessarilythose of the ESRC

In this issue...

Futureperfect:ManagingthegovernanceofOlympicrisk

JudithRees:Copingwithachangingclimate

Education:Howhomelifeaffectslearning

Pillow talkHave we

become anation of

insomniacs?

Society

owSPRING 2011 ISSUE9

ESRCRESEARCHMAKINGANIMPACT

FEATURES10 Pillow talk

New research nds that we are sleepingless than ever, with consequences for ourhealth, well-being and family life

14 Smoking on the silver screenTobacco advertising and sponsorship aremore strictly regulated than ever yet many

lms accessible to children and youngpeople still contain images of smoking

20 Risky businessThe assessment and management of riskis woven into the administration of large-scale events. How are the organisers of theLondon Olympics preparing for the worst?

24 The gap yearsDespite having been high on the politicalagenda for decades, the educational gapbetween rich and poor children is still starkin Britain in 2011

26 Voices: Climate change championProfessor Judith Rees, director of the ESRCCentre for Climate Change Economicsand Policy, talks about initiatives to tackleclimate change and how evidence informsclimate policy

AllSocietyNowphotographyA

lamyunlessotherwisemark

ed

Sarah Womack Freelancejournalist and former socialaffairs correspondent of theDaily Telegraph

Helen Margetts Professor ofSociety and the Internet atthe Oxford Internet Institute,University of Oxford

Dr Clifford Stott SeniorLecturer in Social Psychologyand director and founder ofthe Henri Tajfel Laboratory

at the School of Psychology,the University of Liverpool

Arild Foss ESRC Copy Editor

Will Jennings HallsworthResearch Fellow at theSchool of Social Sciences,University of Manchester

Judith Rees Professorof Environmental andResources Managementat the London School ofEconomics

CONTRIBUTORS

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SPRING 2011 SOCIETY NOW 3

CUTS IN FUNDING to the voluntarysector are placing the Governmentsvision for a big society in jeopardy,

according to researcher Dr JaneHolgate of Leeds University BusinessSchool. A three-year study of howethnic minority workers deal withproblems they have encountered atwork nds evidence of an advicedesert. Problems at work can havea serious impact on employeespersonal lives in terms of ill-health,unemployment and poverty. The lackof support for employment problemsis a serious issue, argues Dr Holgate.Current advice agencies are seriously

under-funded and this is likely to getworse because of forthcoming cuts.If the big society is to be meaningful,then resources need to be directed atcommunity level to provide the adviceand support that is needed.

The study, conducted among Kurdsin Hackney, South Asians in Ealingand Black Caribbeans in Lambeth,was prompted by concerns about thelack of support for workers facingdisciplinary and grievance issuesranging from bullying to failure to

pay wages (including the NationalMinimum Wage). With over 70 percent of workers in the UK labourmarket without union representation,researchers aimed to discover what

people do when they have a problemat work.

Findings reveal a dearth of

employment advice available,particularly for the most vulnerableworkers, but also for most workerswithout trade union representation.Only 44 per cent of those interviewed

were trade union members. Of thenon-trade union members, 45 per centsaid they either did not have a unionin their workplace, or that no-one hadasked them to join.

Finding timely, informative andappropriate employment advice fromsources other than trade unionswas very difcult. While there are anumber of government and voluntarysector advice websites and telephonehelplines available to workers, very fewof those interviewed knew about these.

Moreover, what workers really wantedwas to talk through the specics of theircase and to nd an advisor who wouldrepresent them in dealings with theiremployer. When advice was available

from Citizens Advice Bureaux or LawCentres there were problems withaccess, restricted opening hours and

ineligibility for legal aid.The government appears not to

realise the devastating impact that thecuts in funding to voluntary sectororganisations will have on the most

vulnerable in society, Dr Holgatepoints out. Recently, we heard how veBirmingham Citizens Advice ofceswere to close immediately. And this isonly the start. Our research shows thatif the government is serious about itsbig society agenda then we will needthese types of services more than everas hundreds of thousands of peoplelose their jobs and are in need of helpand advice to keep themselves and theirchildren out of poverty.n

NEWS

NEWS

Advice to prevent poverty nMigrants boost UK hotel innovationn

Rape case attritionnRussian female prisoners suffer dual isolationn

Long-term costs of birth problems nUS home ownership falls for the youngn

Working on worrying lessnNew wave of North African militants n

Make up your mind timenNudging citizens into active partnershipn

Planning undermines land reform nLets talk about it n

Advice toprevent poverty

What workers really wanted was to talkthrough the specics of their case and tond an advisor who would represent themin dealings with their employer

ContactDr Jane Holgate, Leeds UniversityBusiness [email protected] 798399ESRC Grant NumberRES-062-23-0464

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WEIGHING THE RISKS

Many choices in life, such ashow much to save, depend onhow willing people are to takerisks. Research will provide newmeasures of the willingness totake risks and to forgo currentpleasures for future rewards.Having such measures willprovide a more complete pictureof the factors that shape choicesrelating to savings, borrowingand health behaviours.ESRC Grant NumberRES-000-22-4264

SURROGATE MOTHERSWhat are the longer-termexperiences of surrogatemothers? A previous study ofwomen who were interviewedone year after the birth of thechild suggested surrogacy couldresult in positive experiences.Researchers will follow up thissample of surrogate mothers tenyears after surrogacy. Findingswill be of relevance to families,

clinicians and other professionalsinvolved in surrogacy and willinform policy and legislationnationally and internationally.ESRC Grant NumberRES-061-25-0480

A CHILDRENS FORUMThe newly established ChildrensSector Forum in Scotland aims toprovide a powerful, unied voicein national-level policymaking.Researchers will identifysustainable ways of working

which support childrens andyoung peoples participationthat are effective in inuencingpolicy and meaningful to thepeople involved for ScotlandsChildrens Sector Forum andthus national policymaking.ESRC Grant NumberRES-189-25-0174

IN BRIEF

Migrants boost UKhotel innovationMIGRANTS PLAY A key role inmaking smaller British hotels moreinnovative, according to research.Findings show that migrants are animportant source of fresh ideas andcapacity to implement change for thehotel industry.

Migrants are essential becausethey constitute two thirds of the

management in Londons smalland medium-sized hotels and theyare more innovative than Britishmanagers, particularly in areas ofmarketing and management, saysProfessor Gareth Shaw. The types ofinnovation they implement are smalland incremental (such as updatingsoftware) but are essential in terms ofimproving the quality and performanceof hotels and, in the longer term, theUKs international competitiveness.

Researchers explored innovation

processes in large hotel organisationsoperating at the international level, aswell as innovations within micro andsmall enterprises in London.

The research also found that manylarge hotel groups are quick to adoptand exploit innovations developedoutside the industry, although thereis a considerable gap between themost and least effective companies interms of innovation. While hotels ofall types have low levels of in-houseresearch and development, innovative

activity has been boosted through theformation of strong links and directco-production between the hotel and,for example, IT providers. In-roomtechnology for guests has become

an important service, for example,with hotels initiating direct links withIT companies to develop products.The strong level of co-productionof innovation means that the hotelindustry is critical to the developmentand survival of many UK-based ITcompanies, co-researcher ProfessorAllan Williams points out.

The study reveals that the UKhotel industry is a rich environmentfor innovation, and a good exampleof how the shifting boundaries oftechnology innovation are promotingnew forms of co-production. Hoteliersneed to ensure they have the necessaryexpertise and attitude to take advantageof new technological approaches in theindustry, researchers suggest.

Findings further indicate thata continuing supply of migrantmanagers into the UK is essential.

Many do not have a professionaleducation or previous backgroundin hotels, but have strong genericskills. A new points-based migrationmanagement system could make ithard for these managers to work in theUK, Professor Williams argues. Butcutting off this source of innovativemanagers could pose problems forthe competitiveness of the small tomedium-sized enterprises hotel sectorin cities such as London. n

i ContactProfessor Gareth Shaw, University of [email protected] 723332ESRC Grant NumberRES-180-25-0014Targeted Initiative on Innovation Programme


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AT THE END of 2009, there wereapproximately 49,000 womenimprisoned in 46 of Russias penalcolonies. The majority were heldat considerable distances fromhome, often in remote placesdifcult for their relatives to access.Transportation of prisoners, includingjuveniles, to some colonies could take

over two weeks.New research with imprisoned

women and girls and formerprisoners in Russia highlights thedual isolation they feel within theRussian penal system. Distanceresults in women feeling out of placeand makes maintaining contact withthe outside world difcult, which canlead to family breakdown. More than70 per cent of female prisoners in thecolonies receive no visitors.

Despite the recent announcementof a radical restructuring of the penalsystem, which includes plans toincrease the number of facilities forwomen, the prospects for change inRussias penal system geography thatvictimises as well as punishes arenot, in the short term, encouraging.Although there are humanitarian and

economic reasons for Russia tryingto achieve a more geographicallyproportional spread of male andfemale prisoners, there are interestsworking in the opposite direction,including some public support forpunitive measures. n

Russian female prisonerssuffer dual isolation

ContactProfessor Judith Pallot, University of [email protected] 276222ESRC Grant NumberRES-062-23-0026

i

IN BRIEF

SUSTAINABLE FISHINGTension is growing between theneed to conserve dwindling shstocks through conservationmanagement, and the needs

of those dependent uponaccess to sh for their well-being. Based on two sites in SriLanka and India, this projectwill both advance conceptualunderstanding of sheries-conservation conict andgenerate evidence on how suchconict affects the well-being ofthe shers and their families.ESRC Grant NumberRES-061-25-0485

UPSKILLING IN POVERTYExpanding the supply ofgraduates in the UK has notmarkedly improved economicperformance. Government nowrecognises the importance ofhow employers use graduateskills in the labour process. Astudy of UK residential estateagents will explore the range ofskills that are being supplied bygraduates, how and where theseskills are developed and the typeof skills demanded by employers.

ESRC Grant NumberRES-000-22-4343

ANTI-SOCIAL BEHAVIOUROne hundred and fty sevenspecialist anti-social behaviourresponse courts were created in2005. This research explores theimplications of the creation ofanti-social behaviour responsecourts in England and Wales forthe judicial role. Findings willestablish to what extent there hasbeen an expansion of the judicial

role and how far improvingoutcomes for the communityfeatures as part of the judicialdecision-making process.ESRC Grant Number RES-000-22-3715-A

Rape case attritionA THREE-YEAR RESEARCH study into the actors

that infuence the very low conviction rate or rapends that most cases drop out at the earliest,

policing stages o the justice process. Nearly

two thirds o cases are lost at this stage with

victim withdrawal continuing to be a signicant

problem. Researchers tracked one years reported

rape cases in the Sussex area and interviewed

criminal justice personnel and women and men

who had, and had not, reported rape to the police.

Signicant numbers o police ocers believe a

large proportion o rapes (mean response o 53

per cent) are alse allegations, in contrast to thecase review research ndings showing that just

our per cent o cases were ormally documented

as alse.n

iContactDr Lesley McMillan,Glasgow Caledonian [email protected] 331 8284ESRC Grant NumberRES-061-23-0138


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IN BRIEF

YOUTH POLITICSOnly 39 per cent of youngpeople voted in the 2001 General

Election. This project followsa 2002 survey investigatingattitudes towards politics held by18-year-olds. It will focus on thenew generation a decade laterand examine whether their viewson the political and democraticprocess differ from thoserecorded in 2002.ESRC Grant NumberRES-000-22-4450

EXPERIENCE OF AWETechnological advances have

come at the cost of naturalresources, putting humanity atrisk. Researchers will examinehow far awe-inspiring naturalenvironments (eg, wilderness)sensitise people to natureby providing exceptionalemotional experiences ofawe and self-transcendence.Outcome measures will includequantication of concern for thenatural environment and theprotection of resources.


EFFECTIVE LEADERSHIPLittle is known about the roleleadership plays as small,innovative companies grow andface increasing organisational,strategic and commercialchallenges. This study willexplore the factors affectingleadership and the types ofleadership in small, innovativecompanies and small to medium-

sized enterprises as thesetransform into larger enterprisesand encounter increasingorganisational complexity.ESRC Grant NumberRES-073-27-0024

HOME OWNERSHIP AMONG youngAmericans fell strikingly between 1980and 2000, a period when ownershipshould have become easier. Why wasthis? A new study has explored houseownership during a period when USgovernment initiatives to increasehome ownership and developmentsin the mortgage market should havemade it more attractive to own a home.

Findings show that a fall inmarriage rates accounts for half of the

decline in young Americans homeownership. The other main reasonwas a rise in household earnings risk.A substantial increase in uncertaintyabout earnings resulted in peopledelaying home ownership. These tworeasons account for three to four-fthsof the decline in home ownershipamong the young.

This research, the rst to drawthe connection between heightenedearnings risk and lower home

ownership, has important implicationsfor public policy both in the US andthe UK. To the extent that heightenedincome risk is here to stay, thenwe should expect aggregate homeownership rates to begin to declinegoing forward, states researcherProfessor Martin Gervais. If sucha decline is the optimal response ofhouseholds to an increase in risk,then policymakers should be wary ofintroducing market distortions to offset

the decline. On the other hand, if highrates of home ownership are viewed asa desirable public policy objective thenexisting institutions and regulationsdesigned to boost home ownership willneed to be rethought. n

US home ownership falls for young

ContactProfessor Martin Gervais,University of [email protected] 593 847ESRC Grant NumberRES-000-22-3532

i

Long-term costs of birth problemsAVERTING WOMENS pregnancy-related death

is recognised as an international health anddevelopment priority. Maternal survival is, in this

sense, a success story. However, new research

into those women who survive severe obstetric

complications in Burkina Faso, West Africa nds

that the long term-effect is social and health-

related rather than nancial. These survivors had

more fertility and chronic health problems, and

were still experiencing higher mortality, as did their

children four years on. They were also more likely

to migrate or to divorce. Researchers suggest that

maternal health policy needs to be concerned notonly with averting the loss of life but also with

preventing or ameliorating other losses set in

motion by an obstetric crisis.n

ContactDr Veronique Filippi, London School ofHygiene and Tropical [email protected] 7927 2874ESRC grant numberRES-183-25-0011ESRC/Hewlett Joint Scheme

i


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MEDIA PORTRAYAL OF NorthAfrican radicalism as a uniformphenomenon is wide of the mark,according to a three-year study ofradicalisation in North Africa.

People tend to lump togethermilitancy in North Africa when a more

nuanced and balanced view is requiredif you really want to understand thesituation, argues Alison Pargeter.Militancy in Morocco, for example,has very different characteristics frommilitancy in Libya and to understandthis properly we need to considerthe different national or, moreappropriately, local experiences.

Researchers set out to analyse whatfactors have had and continue to havea bearing on Islamic radicalisation inNorth Africa, in particular what local

factors may have fuelled support forIslamist alternatives in the region.Researchers interviewed North AfricanIslamists including militants andformer militants, as well as ofcials,defence lawyers, human rightsactivists and the families of suspectsimprisoned on terrorist charges.

A key nding is that a newgeneration of militants has emergedthat differs in many respects from thatof the 1980s and 1990s. This newgeneration is less overtly politicised,

explains Pargeter. Up to the 1990seven those in militant groups hadsome sort of directed political goaland were also able to articulate thegrievances felt by certain parts of

the population. In marked contrast,todays militants seem to be driven byrejectionism, despondency, religiousfervour and, in many cases, appear tobe wrapped up in a reckless nihilism.Where violence used to be almost a by-product of the political environment,

for this new generation it appears tohave become an end in itself.

This reckless nihilism may,researchers say, be the consequenceof the lack of progress made by earliermilitants. Todays militants seem toradicalise quickly and have shallowreligious knowledge. The internet isnot their biggest inuence. Rather,these young militants are often heavilyinuenced by individuals withintheir own circle and by the radicalideology advocated by religious satellite

channels from Egypt and the Gulf.While todays militants may be

inspired by Al-Qaida, particularly interms of tactics, they appear largelydriven by local preoccupations andgrievances. Despite repeated effortsby the State and by older generationsof Islamists to portray this new currentas something imported from abroad,the disaffection has deep roots withinindividual North African societies,Pargeter concludes.n

New wave of NorthAfrican militants

i

Stockphoto

ContactAlison Pargeter, University of [email protected] Tel07958 643820ESRC Grant NumberRES-181-25-0022New Security Challenges: Radicalisation andViolence Programme

i

Working onworrying lessWORRYING AND RUMINATING about work

during evenings and weekends impairs

sleep quality, and leads to lower well-being

and perormance, according to a series o

studies involving UK healthcare and central

government employees.

The research assessed the nature and

impact o poor psychological detachment

rom work during leisure time (eg, evenings

and weekends) among UK public sector

employees. The same research also

evaluated a brie mindulness-based

training programme, which was deliveredto employees in the workplace.

We ound the training resulted in

signifcant reductions in psychological

distress, rumination and worry, and

improved lie satisaction over a fve-month

evaluation period, explains researcher

Dr Paul Flaxman.

Two key implications o this research

are: frst, that thinking about work during

leisure time is most harmul to our

well-being and recovery when it takes the

orm o worry and rumination (known as

perseverative cognition); and second, thatmindulness-based training delivered in the

workplace appears to be an eective and

efcient method or improving employees

mental health.n

ContactDr Paul Flaxman,City University [email protected] 7040 8484ESRC Grant NumberRES-061-25-0232

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WHAT ARE THE most effective waysof engaging citizens so they do thingsfor the common good? Researchersfrom an ESRC Ventures project haveconducted 12 experimental trials and

initiatives to test whether nudgingcitizens to get involved using someincentive, feedback or cue is effectivein giving people the opportunity tothink about key social problems andprompt them into action.

Researchers carried out a rangeof research developing innovativeexperiments over a three-year periodin areas such as charitable giving,recycling and volunteering. ResearcherProfessor Peter John says: We foundthat citizens are willing to change

their behaviour and do more to helpthemselves and others if approachedin the right way. But government willhave to learn to operate differently ifthe big society is to be encouraged.

For example, in one projectresearchers tested the impact ofcanvassing on household recycling.In partnership with EMERGE, a socialenterprise which delivers a weeklykerbside recycling service, more than6,500 households were assigned toeither a control or treatment group.

The treatment group was visitedby canvassers trained to promote andencourage recycling. The canvassingcampaign raised participation inkerbside recycling by ten per cent and

this effect was found to be sustainedafter three months, albeit at a reducedrate of four per cent. Canvassingwas found to be most successful instreets with low initial recycling rates,

deprived areas and areas with a highethnic minority population.

Other trials found a six per centincrease in household food recycling asa result of residents getting a smileyface feedback on how their street wasperforming; book donations risingby 22 per cent as a result of peoplepledging to donate and their namesbeing publicly displayed; and provisionof tailored information about organdonation resulted in a 17 per centincrease in registered donors.

In contrast, an online experimentin which participants debated youthanti-social behaviour led only tomodest shifts in opinions among thosewho participated.

Professor John concludes: Overall,we show that governments andother agencies should customise themessages they convey to citizens toensure they nudge them to achieve thebest impact. n

Nudging citizens intoactive citizenship

ContactProfessor Peter John,University of [email protected] 275 0791ESRC Grant NumberRES-177-25-0002An ESRC Venture

i

STARTING FAMILIES IN the 21st century is a

complex affair with a strong desire for children

competing with other life demands and

sources of life satisfaction. This competition,

argue researchers from the Fertility Pathways

Network, makes childbearing today less of

a drive and more of a decisional issue that

requires deliberation. People now require

increasingly more time before they feel ready

to conceive.

What people still dont seem to fully realise

is that a long deliberation period comes at the

cost of potentially not achieving parenthood(inadvertent childlessness), says researcher

Professor Jacky Boivin. Nor, according to a pilot

study on fertility awareness, do young people

necessarily behave in ways that will give them

the best chance of conceiving such as not

smoking and maintaining the right weight. The

need to increase awareness of the importance

of preconceptional health for fertility is one

of the early messages from the network

which aims to improve understanding of how

individuals make decisions regarding their

reproductive lives and the factors that affect

reproductive success.n

Make up your

mind time

ContactProfessor Jacky Boivin,University of [email protected] 208 74007Websitewww.fertilitypathwaysnetwork.co.ukESRC Grant NumberRES-355-25-0038Understanding Individual Behaviours Network

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Stockphoto

IN BRIEFLAND REDISTRIBUTION IN Southern Arica has had

signifcantly dierent impacts on poverty reductionand improvement in livelihoods. Research at sites

in South Arica, Namibia and Zimbabwe fnds

that planning approaches have been inormed by

a model o arm viability drawn rom large-scale

commercial agriculture. As a result, project plans

and support systems are poorly aligned to the

needs and aspirations o benefciaries and allow

or little exibility in implementation. Positive

impacts, where ound, have oten been the result

o benefciaries abandoning ofcial plans. There isan urgent need, researchers conclude, to radically

rethink the notion o viability in land reorm.

Planning undermines land reform

NETWORKS FOR HEALTHWhat is the nature and extentof social networks for maternaland child health in England

and how are these shaped byethnicity, religious identity,social class and gender? Infantmortality among some UKminority groups and teenagemothers is signicantly higherthan the average. This researchwill identify womens socialnetworks for health and gapsin support.ESRC Grant NumberRES-061-25-0509

LIFETIME VIEW ON TAXHow do nancial incentives towork change over the lifecourse?How is the tax burden sharedover the population and overthe lifecourse? How do changesin taxes/benets affect thedistribution of lifetime income?New research will provide aricher understanding of the UKtax system and its effects onindividuals decisions to invest inhuman capital and work, lifetimeincome and well-being.


EXPERIENCING COURTFieldwork at two CrownCourts will inform researchinto the publics experience ofthe criminal justice process.The study will examine howfar victims, defendants andwitnesses understand courtproceedings, perceive them tobe fair and believe that they aretreated respectfully by the court.

Researchers will identify thefactors that determine levels ofunderstanding and perceptionsof fair and respectful treatment.ESRC Grant NumberRES-062-23-2493

HOW DO PEOPLE in the UK feelabout talking about their emotions?Research based on a survey ofmore than 2,000 adults views andexperiences of emotional distress andsupport suggests that Britain is nowcharacterised by a relative openness totalking about emotions.

Yet, while attitudes towardsemotions talk are more positive,people are still not comfortable withthe idea of discussing their problemswith a therapist or counsellor and

would prefer to turn to friends orfamily for support.

Over half of those surveyed saidthey found it easy to talk about theirfeelings and two thirds felt that peoplein Britain now are more comfortabletalking about feelings than they were.But differences by age and sex areevident with women under 45 the mostpositive towards emotions talk.

Findings also highlight thesignicance of non talk-basedresponses to emotional difculties

including listening to music,exercising and keeping things to

Lets talk about it

ContactDr Julie Brownlie, University of [email protected]

Telephone01786 467980ESRC Grant NumberRES-062-23-0468

ourselves as well as the continuingimportance of privacy in our everydayemotional lives features which, DrJulie Brownlie suggests, are oftenoverlooked because of the assumptionthat our culture is now uniformlycharacterised by disclosure andunburdening. She concludes that weneed a more nuanced understandingof contemporary emotional culturein Britain and of how people getthrough emotionally difcult times rather than one necessarily dened by

a sense of vulnerability.A number of issues for policy

and practice are raised, includingwhether the balance is right betweentalk- and non talk-based services.More fundamentally, researchersargue, it asks how we should view nottalking. Is it a sign of resilience or ofemotional failing; is it something to beencouraged or overcome?n

ContactDr Ben Cousins,University of the Western Cape, South [email protected] Grant NumberRES-167-25-0037ESRC/DFID Joint Programme

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HAS THE UK become a nation ofinsomniacs? New research suggestsit has, with 26 per cent of those whowork in excess of 48 hours a week

sleeping for less than six hours a night. FoundingFather of the United States Benjamin Franklinmay have claimed that fatigue was the bestpillow, but the longer the working day, the worsea persons sleep becomes, in length and quality.

These are the rst ndings of the Understanding

Society study tracking 100,000 people in 40,000British households. It says that while exhaustionmay set in after a week of nine-hour days at theofce, the chances of restorative sleep becomeincreasingly elusive. One in ten men (11 per cent)and one in seven women (14 per cent) working 48

hours a week now sleeps less than six hours a night

two hours less than the recommended amount.Poor sleep quality is also experienced by nearly athird of women (31 per cent) working 48 hours ormore a week, while a quarter of women working31-48 hours per week complain of the same.

For their research on our sleeping habits,academics drew in part on responses from 15,098adults and stated that sleep was clearly an area ofconcern for public health and public policy. Thesituation is so signicant that some experts havecalled for a public health strategy to help preventsleep problems, on a par with campaigns onalcohol and smoking.

Lack of sleep has many bad health effects, theysay, including obesity, hypertension and diabetes.

It has been attributed to raising the chances of awoman getting breast cancer by as much as 60per cent, because melatonin, a hormone producedby the brain during sleep to regulate the bodysinternal clock, plays a key role in preventing breasttumours by suppressing the amount of oestrogenthat is released.

Academics in the UK and Italy recently claimedthat sleeping less than six hours a night increasedthe risk of early death, with people who regularlyhad this little sleep becoming 12 per cent morelikely to die over a period of 25 years or less, thanthose who got the recommended six to eight hours.

The sleep decit also contributes to productivityslumps, caused by sickness absence and accidents.The current sleep shortfall is estimated to costemployers eight million sick days a year, comparedwith just over three million in 2008.

New research nds that we are sleeping less than ever, with consequences for our health,well-being and family life. How and why did this happen? Sarah Womack investigates

Pillow talk

Lack of sleep has many bad healtheffects, researchers say, includingobesity, hypertension and diabetes

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PILLOW TALK

Dr Mark Bryan, Senior Research Fellow at theInstitute of Social and Economic Research, based atthe University of Essex, who conducted some of theUnderstanding Society research on sleep, said thatone important factor in whether people slept wellwas job satisfaction. People who are completelydissatised with their job and this may bebecause they are fearful of losing that job, or cannotnd another one in a contracting jobs market sleep badly and for shorter hours. An economic

upturn may generate better sleep patterns if peoplebecome happier at work.

FOG OF DROWSINESS

For now, however, workers wade through a fog ofdrowsiness, with all its concomitant effects. Ourresearch, conducted in 2009 (when the UK enteredrecession for the rst time since 1991) shows thatworking long hours affects peoples sleep qualityand increases the number of people sleeping veryshort durations, he said.

Working long hours, with the accumulationof physical fatigue which accompanied that, was

no guarantee of sleep. In fact, the opposite wastrue. Long hours jobs tend to be those with moreresponsibility, so poor sleep may be attributed tosheer workloads, and it is higher qualied peoplewho tend to be those putting in the long hours.

Working women were particularly hard hitby poor sleep, he said, and not, as one mightassume, because they were juggling paid jobs withchildcare responsibilities although many are.A large proportion of women in our study whoworked long hours did report bad sleep quality

and we thought this might be because of theirother responsibilities. But women with childcareresponsibilities tend not to be able to work longhours so these were actually women with non-dependent children.

Dr Bryans research conrms recent ndingsin the Financial Times on the sleep decit. A surveyby Philips, the Dutch healthcare and electronicscompany, of respondents in ve countries, foundthat the average manager was sleeping 19 per centless than the ideal eight hours, according to the

newspaper. Forty per cent of those questionedblamed the state of the global economy for theirinsomnia. Americans were more likely than othernationalities to lose sleep through work stress, with30 per cent citing it as the reason they wake up at

Working long hours affects sleepquality and increases the number of

people sleeping very short durations

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PILLOW TALK

night. Germany was next, with 27 per cent; thenthe UK, 24 per cent; and Japan, 20 per cent. TheDutch, at 12 per cent, were the least affected.

Understanding Society found that it was not justlength of sleep and quality of sleep that was theproblem, it was getting to sleep in the rst place.

A quarter of women said they had trouble droppingoff within 30 minutes on three or more nights aweek. One in ve men said the same. By the timemen and women reached the age of 65, half hadtrouble sleeping on three or more nights a week.

Many of these people were still working.Around 28 per cent of people over the currentretirement age, and without long-term illness or

limitation, are still in employment. Dr Bryan said:The EU Working Time Directive (introduced in1993 to regulate the amount of time spent at workin order to protect the health and safety of theEuropean workforce) restricts long hours, but inthis country you can opt out of that, which accountsfor people working 48 hours or more a week.

In the UK an estimated 3.2 million people areworking these long hours. While lack of sleepaffects health and productivity, it may also skewDavid Camerons project to measure societalhappiness. The Prime Minister says he inherited

a Broken Britain. He wants to create a greaterfocus on well-being rather than wealth, and from2012 has pledged to introduce a happiness or GWB general well-being index which will measurepeoples quality of life.

But sleep deprivation has an effect on well-being because of its impact on temper and mood.Tired parents bicker and are less optimistic.Children suffer when mum and dad snap at them,argue with each other, are too exhausted to listen totheir problems or too busy to eat with them.

For Understanding Society, 1,268 childrenbetween the ages of 10 and 15 were interviewed

about family life and how happy they were athome. The research showed that the biggestinuence on childrens well-being was the qualityof relationships within their family not justrelationships between parents and children,

but also the quality of the parents partnership.Children who ate at least three evening meals aweek with their parents were more likely to reportbeing completely happy with family life. Hoursspent watching TV were unrelated to a youngpersons happiness with his or her family situation.

Watching TV has been linked to severaladverse outcomes among children, said Dr MariaIacovou, a Research Fellow at ISER specialising infamily structures and education. But it looks asthough childrens perception of their own well-being isnt one of them.

CHILDLESS COUPLESThe research found that childless couples werehappiest with their relationships, while those witha pre-school child and often the least sleep wereleast happy, although happiness increased withthe age of the youngest child. Dr Iacovou said:

When you have a baby, it is terribly hard and a verydifcult time in the life of couples. When you havea pre-school child, thats the time when there isthe most strain on a relationship and it is possiblethat some people never recover the happinessthey had originally (as childless couples). Moreresearch is planned on whether these differencesvary according to whether couples are childless bychoice or expecting to have a family in the future.

Other research showed that while being joblesswas associated with lower levels of happiness in amans relationship with his partner, income had noadditional effect on relationship happiness among

men, and was only mildly important for women.But better educated people were happier withtheir relationships, and for women the associationbetween relationship satisfaction and educationwas stronger than for men. Dr Iacovou said: Itmight be that better educated people nd it easierto conduct their relationships they may havemore space and more money, and relationships arenot such a strain. But it may also be because peoplewho have more education are more likely to matchup with someone better suited to them. People whoare more educated also tend to settle down later inlife and when you are more mature, you tend to

make a better choice of partner.With work-life balance, marriage, mental

health, and job satisfaction increasingly regarded asthe solvent of societal happiness, the issue of sleepand how it affects all these things is becomingan important area of study. If the Government iskeen on our collective happiness, perhaps it shouldconsider ways to improve peoples sleep a recipefor increased happiness for us all. n

The UnderstandingSocietystudy hasindicated severeproblems with our

sleeping habits

Sleep deprivation has an effect onwell-being because of its impact ontemper and mood

i Sarah Womack is ormer social aairs correspondent o theDaily Telegraph

The ESRC commissioned and is the major under o the Understanding

Societystudy. The research team is led by the Institute or Social andEconomic Research (ISER) at the University o Essex and the studyincludes research fndings on our working lives, relationships, health,fnances and neighbourhoods.

Webwww.understandingsociety.org.uk

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T

OBACCO USE CAUSES nearly fve milliondeaths worldwide each year more than anyother avoidable cause. In England 85 per cent

o all lung cancer deaths and 80 per cent o allChronic Obstructive Pulmonary disease deaths areattributable to smoking.

Preventing smoking is a public health priority

and because the majority o smokers become

addicted in their teens, measures to prevent the

exposure o children and young people to tobacco

products are especially important. Adolescents who

view tobacco use in flm and who admire leading

actors and actresses whose characters smoke in flms

are arguably more likely to view smoking avourably

and are more likely to start smoking themselves.

However, whilst tobacco advertising and sponsorship

are now heavily restricted in the UK and many othercountries, tobacco imagery in the media has not

been controlled to the same extent.

Recent research by Ailsa Lyons, Ann McNeill,

Yilu Chen and John Britton at the ESRC-unded

UK Centre or Tobacco Control Studies (UKCTCS)

looked at images o tobacco and related products in

the most popular flms shown in the UK.

We ound that while tobacco imagery hasdeclined substantially over the past 20 years it

continues to occur and predominantly in flms

categorised as suitable or viewing by children and

young people, said Ailsa Lyons.

The UKCTCS research sought to objectively

measure the extent to which tobacco imagery

and specifc products have appeared in the most

popular flms viewed in the UK rom 1989 to 2008,

in relation to year o release, the age certifcation

allocated to the flm by the British Board o Film

Classifcation (BBFC), the country o origin and

other characteristics.

The researchers used listings o the mostcommercially successul flms based on gross

UK cinema box ofce takings data provided by

the UK Film Council to identiy the most popular

flms viewed in the UK or each year between

Cigarette brandappearances occurmore oten in British

flms, such as BridgetJoness Diary, above

Smoking on the silver screenTobacco advertising and sponsorship are more strictly regulated than ever and yet

many lms accessible to children and young people still contain images of smoking.

By Nick Stevens

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1989 the frst year that UK-specifc fgures were

collected and 2008. The researchers viewed and

coded the flms to record appearances o tobacco or

tobacco-related products, inerred tobacco use, and

verbal or non-verbal inerence such as a comment

on smoking or leaving a scene with a packet o

cigarettes and lighter.O the 300 flms analysed 15, 27, 26, 26 and six

per cent respectively were BBFC U, PG, 12/12A, 15

and 18 categories. Most flms (94 per cent) were

produced by or in partnership with US producers,

and 68 per cent were produced solely rom the US.

UK producers were involved in 20 per cent o flms,

and were solely responsible or three per cent. Other

countries were involved in producing 19 per cent o

flms, but only one flm, Muriels Wedding, had no

UK or USA involvement. The 15 most popular flms

typically accounted or 50 per cent o each years

gross UK cinema box ofce takings.

Occurrence o tobacco use, implied use orappearance o smoking paraphernalia occurred in

70 per cent o all flms. Over hal (56 per cent) o

those were rated by the BBFC as suitable or viewing

by children aged 15 and under, and 92 per cent

were rated as suitable or people aged 18 and under.

However, tobacco use did not occur in any U-rated

flm released ater 1999.

Tobacco appearances did all by 80 per cent

over the study period, yet persisted in flms in all

BBFC categories. Brand appearances were nearly

twice as likely to occur in flms originating wholly

or in part rom the UK (UK flms) and most brand

appearances (39 per cent) were in flms with BBFC

15 classifcation. This raises the possibility that

product placement by tobacco companies could still

be occurring. As ar as brands were concerned, the

leaders were Marlboro, which eatured 21 times in13 flms, and Silk Cut, which eatured 14 times in

our flms. Marlboro occurred in all BBFC categories

except U, and with no relationship to country o

origin. Silk Cut appearances all occurred between

1996 and 2004 in flms set in the UK and made

with UK production involvement.

The most Silk Cut brand appearances were in

Bridget Joness Diary and About a Boy, both o which

were categorised as suitable or youth viewing

(BBFC categories 15 and 12, respectively). The lead

character in Bridget Joness Diary smoked Silk Cut

regularly throughout the flm, as she does in the

novel on which the flm was based. In About a Boythe main character (Will) also smoked Silk Cut

regularly throughout the duration o the flm, mostly

in the presence o a 12-year-old boy. However, in Nick

Hornbys novel on which the flm was based, Will

smoked inrequently and no brand was identifed.

BBFC classifcation guidelines do not directly

reer to tobacco use under the suitability criteria or

certiying ratings o flms submitted, but do state

in U and PG category guidance that flms receiving

these certifcations will show No potentially

dangerous behaviour which young children are

likely to copy. No reerence to tobacco use, smoking

or imitable behaviour is mentioned in either o the

other youth-rated age categories (BBFC 12/12A or

15). The BBFC reers specifcally to use o drugs,

violence, bad language and sex in ofcial guidelines,

including strict limitations in youth-rated flms, so

its surprising, given the extent o the harm caused

by smoking, that these guidelines do not includetobacco, said researcher Ailsa Lyons.

As exposure to tobacco smoking and other orms

o tobacco imagery in flm is a potent driver o youth

and adult smoking, the research team concluded that

the serious potential hazard represented by tobacco

exposure should also be a determinant o flm

classifcation. This could then prevent unnecessary

or inappropriate exposure o children and young

people to smoking role models when they are at

their most impressionable and vulnerable. n

SMOKING ON THE SILVER SCREEN

The days ofcigarettes beingopenly on sale in UK

shops are numbered

Whilst advertising and sponsorship are nowheavily restricted, tobacco imagery has notbeen controlled to the same extent

The UK Centre for Tobacco Control Studies is a UKCRC Centre of

Public Health Research Excellence. It is funded by the Economicand Social Research Council, the British Heart Foundation, CancerResearch UK, the Medical Research Council and the Department ofHealth, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration.

Webwww.ukctcs.org

i

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THE YEAR 2011 is bringing dramaticpolitical developments in a growing listof Arab states, including Iran, Tunisia,Jordan, Algeria, Yemen, Libya, Bahrain

and Egypt, where mass demonstrations arechallenging authoritarian regimes. The mediahas associated the internet with all these protestsbut in Egypt the internet was cut off for six dayson day three of the 18-day protest leading to theunseating of President Mubarak. So is the internet

really vital to contemporary protest or is the neteffect insignicant?

The scale, sustainability and success of theEgyptian protests raise questions for politicalscience, which draws on Mancur Olsonsargument that the logic of collective actionworks against mass demonstrations. Large-scalemobilisation will be paralysed by free-riders,people who still receive the benets of collectiveaction without incurring the costs, which in Egypt

were tragically high for many. Some argue thatmobilisations can be rescued by a critical mass ofactivists who undertake the bulk of the costs. Butthis work doesnt quantify critical mass, or providetools to predict when mobilisations will attain it.

Enter the internet. Although commentatorshave long predicted the potential of technologyto empower citizens and subvert bureaucraticpower, mainstream political science has tended to

minimise the effect of the net on collective action.Some recent research identies internet use

and skills as being signicantly associated withpolitical activity, as much as interest in politics.Other researchers dismiss this aimless surng asmere slacktivism. The author Malcolm Gladwellargued in the New Yorkeron 4 October 2010(Why the Revolution wont be tweeted) that theweak ties accumulated on the internet couldnever bring about the type of organised protestthat sparked off the civil rights movement.

Perhaps the best clue to how the internetmobilises protestors comes from economics.

In Micromotives and MacrobehaviorThomasC Schelling argues that people differ in theirthreshold for joining a mobilisation. Thisvariation leads to a tipping point at around 45per cent of the number needed for success; when

they perceive that this is reached, most potentialjoiners will join.

So how many protestors were needed to actcollectively to unseat Mubarak? In the minds ofthe protestors, one million was signicant. On 1February, the rst march of millions, involvingbetween one and two million protestors in Cairoalone (Al Jazeera) was clearly a turning point forthe protestors and the regime. The rst protesttook place on 25 January. We dont know how

many gathered on the rst days but it seems therewere tens of thousands rather than Schellingstipping point, 45 per cent of one million.

On 27 January, the Egyptian government shutdown access to the internet through the mainEgyptian ISPs. But by this time, the net had giventhree important signals to potential protestorsthat the tipping point had been reached. First, ithad publicised plans for the demonstrations of28 January via Facebook, Twitter and SMS, whichhad been used by the early protestors (with lowjoining thresholds) for many months.

Second, the Google executive Wael Ghonims

Facebook page (We Are All Khaled Said) showingimages of a young man brutally killed by Egyptianpolice, had collected 473,000 supporters. It wasa weak signal, yet important for the ve millionEgyptian Facebook users in a newly impoverishedinformation environment, with little coverageof the protests by the state-controlled media andevents on the ground making it impossible tojudge numbers.

Third, the very act of cutting off the internetsent a nice fat public signal (see the economistJeff Elys blog) to the protestors that the regimeconsidered the protest a real threat. It also

minimised the likelihood of potential protestorsbeing put off by news of pro-government violence.

On 28 January, the number of demonstratorsreached hundreds of thousands in mostreports and continued to grow into the marchof millions. Malcolm Gladwell might like torevisit his own book, The Tipping Point, beforedismissing the potential of internet-based protestto topple governments. n

OPINION HELEN MARGETTS

The net effectProfessor Helen Margetts assesses how the internet has made a difference to

collective action, participation and protest

Commentators have long predicted

the potential of technology to empowercitizens and subvert power

i Helen Margetts is Professor of Society and the Internet at theOxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford. In October 2010she was awarded an ESRC Professorial Fellowship to re-examine

collective action, governance and citizen-government interactionsin the digital era.

[email protected] 287210Webwww.oii.ox.ac.uk, www.governmentontheweb.orgESRC Grant NumberRES-051-27-0331

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CAIRO HAS RECENTLY been the focusfor perhaps the most fascinating series ofcrowd events since the velvet revolutionsof the late 1980s. Despite a peaceful

beginning, conict emerged when the widelydespised police tried to disperse the crowds throughforce. The violence ebbed as the police withdrew, andthe arriving army were embraced as liberators.

This was not an uncontrolled explosion of ragethen, but a meaningful attack on a specic authority

that had lost legitimacy. Of course, there were othertransitions; at the height of the protest pro-Mubaraksupporters mobilised in an attempt to destabilise thecrowds revolutionary thrust. And it was only thenthat widespread collective conict again emerged.

Eventually, the forces of change became so strongthat the army effectively undertook a coup dtat. Thisepisode demonstrates once again how the actionsof crowds are not peripheral phenomena of passingcuriosity. These crowds have played and will continueto play a central role in global politics. In this sensealone, Egypt demonstrates precisely why the studyof crowds should be central to the social sciences. In

particular, we see some powerful lessons about thenature of crowds in our own society.

It is hard to see how the Cairo crowds can beunderstood from the perspective of theories thatrender crowd action irrational. These were not mobsblindly open to the casual inuence of foreignagitators seeking to destabilise a legitimate politicalregime despite the regimes attempts to denethe situation in such terms. The crowds mobilisedaround a shared belief in the illegitimacy of theMubarak regime and acted to create meaningfulsocial change. These crowds were not the enemy ofenlightened democracy but its origin.

But the events in Egypt resonate powerfullywith the Elaborated Social Identity Model of crowdbehaviour (ESIM). Research within the ESIMtheoretical tradition demonstrates how crowds act interms of shared beliefs about the social world aroundthem. It has shown that the perceived legitimacy ofthe relationships between crowds and the authoritiescan be central to whether or not widespread collectiveviolence develops. This is a general pattern: whatis true of crowds in Egypt is true of crowds inthe UK and this is why we have argued forcefullyfor an analysis of the role of police tactics in thedisturbances surrounding the recent student protests

in central London (Gorringe, Stott, and Rosie, 2010).The ESIM has recently played a signicant role

in informing Her Majestys Inspectorate of theConstabularys (HMIC) inquiry into public orderpolicing. The inquiry came about as a consequence

of the death of a member of the public following theuse of the police tactic of kettling during the 2009G20 protest in central London (Stott, 2009). In myreport to the HMIC, I suggested that the police oftenrely too heavily on the use of force in their attemptsto manage crowds. Such police tactics inadvertentlyrun the danger of initiating and escalating rioting.

Preliminary research suggests that there isa need to develop techniques of dialogue andcommunication with the radicalised groups

within protests crowds. Such non-confrontationaltechniques allow the police to move from the reactivecontrolling of public disorder to the proactivefacilitation of public order. Consequently, the policeare much better positioned to prevent escalations ofdisorder and avoid the use of kettling with all of itssubsequent dangers.

Not long after these recommendations werepublished, November and December 2010 saw aseries of student protests in London. During the rstof these, protestors managed to occupy ConservativeParty headquarters. Almost immediately theMetropolitan Police faced a media backlash againstthe core recommendations of the HMIC and of thescience that underpinned them. And by the timethe largest of these demonstrations occurred inDecember we had witnessed a return to kettling inParliament Square, widespread rioting and seriousinjuries to both protestors and police.

There can be no sense in which the science ofcrowd psychology can or should be seen as somepanacea that can remove the potential for conictfrom society. But this science has begun to makean important contribution to our understanding ofhow and why riots come about and of how to preventthem. What these episodes make clear is that anunderstanding of crowds is fundamentally importantand has a place of central theoretical and practicalimportance within the social sciences.n

CLIFFORD STOTT OPINION

Mob mentality?The study of crowd psychology is essential to understanding how and why riots

come about, and how to prevent them, argues Dr Clifford Stott

Dr Clifford Stott is Senior Lecturer in Social Psychology anddirector and founder of the Henri Tajfel Laboratory at the School of

Psychology, the University of Liverpool. In 2005 he completed anESRC research grant on Crowd Dynamics, Policing and Hooliganismat Euro2004.

[email protected] Telephone0151 794 1417ESRC Grant NumberRES-000-23-0617

i

These crowds were not theenemy of enlightened democracybut its origin

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Our at-a-glance overview of the changing face of lifestyle, health andtreatment in Britain today

HEALTHTHE UK BY NUMBERS

The greatest wealth is healthVirgil

Since 1995 home visits and consultations at a GPs surgery have fallen, while the percentage

of consultations by telephone has quadrupled. (Source: QResearch, University of Nottingham)

England 2008 England 1995

GP consultationsPercentage of consultations by location

24%48%24%44%37%

16%

In 2007, almost a quarter of adults were

clinically obese. (Source: The Health andSocial Care Information Centre HSCIC)

Just under half of the population drankmore than twice a week. (Source: Ofce or

National Statistics ONS)

In 2007, almost a quarter of respondents to

the National Travel Survey reported that they

took walks of at least 20 minutes less than

once a year or never. (Source: HSCIC)

Those aged 20 to 24 reported the highest

prevalence of smoking. (Source: ONS)

The number of death certicates in England

and Wales mentioning methicillin-resistant

Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) fell from

1,230 in 2008 to 781 in 2009. (Source: ONS)

Deaths involving SA (including those which

did not specify methicillin resistance) fell

by 16% from 1,500 in 2008 to 1,253 in 2009.

(Source: ONS)


THE UK BY NUMBERS

GP phone12%

GP visit4%

Other

3%

GP Surgery81%

GP phone3%

GP visit9%

Other

2%

GP Surgery86%

Hospital admissions from drug-related mental health disorders are more than

twice as likely to be from the 25-34 age group as from the 16-24 age group.

(Source: NHS Information Centre)

Drug-related admissionsHospital admissions in England where there was a primary diagnosis ofdrug-related mental health and behavioural disorders, by age group

Under 16 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2007/08

2008/09

Lie is not merely to be

alive, but to be wellMartial

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Life expectancyWithin the UK, life expectancy varies by country.

England has the highest life expectancy at birth,

78.0 years for males and 82.1 years for females,

while Scotland has the lowest, 75.3 years for males

and 80.1 years for females. Life expectancy at age

65 is also higher for England than for the other

countries of the UK.(Source: Ofce or National Statistics, November 2010)

Teenage conceptionIn 2008 the number of conceptions to women aged

under 18 was 41,361 compared with 42,988 in

2007, a decline of 3.8 per cent. Nearly half (49.4

per cent) of conceptions to women aged under 18

in 2008 led to a legal abortion.

(Source: Ofce or National Statistics, November 2010)

In Western Europe the Irish consume the most alcohol per capita, ollowed by France.

The UK is ourth, just behind Germany. (Source: World Health Organization)

Alcohol consumptionEquivalent pure alcohol consumption, litres per capita, age 15+ (2005)

Cancer survivalFive year survival % for adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with cancerBreast cancer in women and prostate cancer in men remain the two mostsurvivable types o cancer. (Source: Ofce or National Statistics)


Cigarettes consumedNumber of cigarettes consumed per person smoking per year

The British are relatively light smokers. (Source: World Health Organization)

Breastwomen

Colonmen

Colonwomen

Lungmen

Lungwomen

Prostatemen

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Belgium France Germany Spain UnitedKingdom

Ireland Italy

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Netherlands

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

United Kingdom

Spain

Netherlands

Italy

Ireland

Germany

France

Belgium

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THE LONDON 2012 Olympics will be thelargest sports event ever to be staged inthe UK. As recently as February 2011, theNational Audit Ofce reported that the

nal cost of the Games to the British taxpayer wasinherently uncertain due to timing constraintsleaving little scope for responding to unforeseen,last-minute nancial pressures.

Risk, and the associated vocabulary of hazardsand threats, is pervasive in preparations forLondon 2012. With little more than a year tothe start of the Games, uncertainties and risksremain across the Olympic programme, such

as potential repercussions of the success of theLondon Organising Committee of the Olympic and

Paralympic Games (LOCOG) ticket pricing for itsbusiness plan, the threat from terrorism and cyberattacks, and the danger of legacy planning beingsidetracked by more immediate concern with thedeadline for the opening ceremony on 27 July 2012.

As the worlds largest peace-time event,the Olympics represent a special venue for thegovernance of risk. The prominence of riskmanagement in the organisation of London 2012highlights the complex mix of risks that organisersface. The event has massive nancial expense and alarge-scale construction programme; it is dependentupon Londons fragmented transport network; the

main Olympic site is close to high density domesticand commercial populations; and the UK is exposedto both domestic extremism and internationalterrorism. Finally, a successful Olympics is vital tothe reputation of the UK. For London 2012, risk estimation of the likelihood of an event multipliedby its adverse outcome can be related to variousaspects of organising the Games. These include

security, nance, construction and transport, aswell as different geographical locations the mainOlympic site, central London, the regions.

As a consequence, a number of stakeholdersare dealing with a diverse set of risks, includingstrategic national level risks (Cabinet Ofce),programme risks (Government Olympic Executive),project management and delivery (Olympic DeliveryAuthority), Games operations and commercialrevenue (LOCOG), safety and security (the HomeOfce and the Metropolitan Police) and social andeconomic legacies (the Greater London Authority,the Olympic Delivery Authority and the Olympic

Park Legacy Company). While such a broadoverview of Olympic risks provides a list of thingsthat might go wrong, it also shows the complex andinterconnected nature of Olympic governance.

Because of the extended lead time ofpreparations for 2012, there are numerous criticalrisks that have emerged or changed over thelifetime of the project. Since feasibility studieswere conducted by the British Olympic Associationduring the late 1990s organisers have had to adaptto the new threat from Al-Qaeda and domesticextremists, and downgrading of the threat fromIrish Republicanism. Likewise, in the period since

the Games were awarded to London in 2005, theglobal nancial crisis has created a far tougherclimate for public and private nancing of theGames than expected, with the developer of theathletes village encountering difculties in raisingprivate equity and debt funding for the project, andrequiring a government-led rescue package.

HAZARDS AND THREATSThroughout history, the Olympic Games andOlympic movement have experienced hazards andthreats including political protests and boycotts,budget overspends, terrorist incidents, logistical

difculties, refereeing controversies and doping.Risk has become increasingly important to theOlympic movement and its governance.

Within the International Olympic Committee(IOC), there is growing interest in risk and its

Risky businessThe complex assessment and management of risk is now woven

into the administration of large-scale events. Will Jennings explainswhat the organisers of the London 2012 Olympics are doing toprepare for the worst

Throughout history, the OlympicGames and Olympic movement haveexperienced hazards and threats

Below: Chris Hoysthree gold medalsfrom the Oympic

Games in Beijing

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management both in selection o host cities andin monitoring preparations or the Games. Pastexperience o difculties with venue readiness,

operations and fnancial management have led tostandardisation o the IOC candidature procedure.The IOC actually describes the selection processor 2012 as a risk assessment exercise to veriythe inormation stated in the candidature fle, todetermine whether proposed plans are easible andto make a qualitative assessment o risk.

The preparations o host cities are subject toadditional monitoring through the IOC CoordinationCommission appointed or each Games, whichregularly assesses progress, preparedness andexpected exposure to operational risks during theGames itsel. The IOCs interest in risk thereore

contrasts with the disregard o FIFA or its owntechnical reports in awarding the 2018 and 2022Football World Cups.

Risk-based thinking has been more extensivethan ever beore in preparations or London 2012,with audit and risk management practices in useacross all aspects o the Olympic programme. Thisreects the organisers eorts to integrate risk intodecision-making processes o all major strategic,delivery and operational unctions. Risk is anobject o strategic planning as well as a ocus oadministration and operations, through reportingsystems aimed at perormance and delivery.

For example, the audit and management oprogramme risks is conducted by the OlympicBoard and Government Olympic Executive. Theyuse general inormation rom reports on threatsand hazards to the UK (such as the Cabinet Ofces

National Risk Register) as well as Olympic-specifcinormation compiled rom risk registers andrisk logs o bodies such as the Olympic Delivery

Authority (ODA) and the Olympic SecurityDirectorate (OSD) within the Metropolitan Police.

At the same time, audit and managemento project and operational risk is conducted atthe level o the individual organisation throughimplementation o bespoke strategies. Thesestrategies include the ODAs three lines o deencepolicy o line management, programme assuranceand risk and audit unctions, and evaluation o riskand value or money in the OSDs assurance osecurity projects or internal unding.

THE LANGUAGE OF RISK

While increasing reliance upon risk managementwithin Olympic governance is a response toits organisational environment, it also reectsthe growing inuence o the risk managementproession. The language o risk is common toorganisers responsible, or example, or security,legacy, inrastructure, operations and fnance eveni that common language is subject to difcultieso translation across jurisdiction or dierences inopinion concerning priorities or risk mitigation.

Concern with the ormalised managemento risk is associated with oresight and control.It does not guarantee, though, that all risks are

avoidable. Tools such as risk registers are reliantupon the quality o inormation ed into them andcreation o risk-based cultures inside organisations.Maintaining consistency in risk assessmentsacross the programme has been one o the major

Beijings BirdsNest Stadium wasa triumph of riskmanagement as well

as architecture

RISKY BUSINESS

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Olympic risk, observed as early as the Paris 1900Olympics, was the purchase of insurance to coverliabilities for personal injury claims from workers,athletes and spectators, or loss of revenues from

cancellation or postponement of events. What haschanged in governance of the Games in recenttimes is increasing concern with formalised andstandardised anticipation and management of risk,beyond taking steps to cover the costs when thingsgo wrong.

While London 2012 might be said to be risk-based in terms of its general organising principlesand integration of risk throughout its programmeand its frontline operations, these cannot guaranteethat the Games will pass without minor or moreserious incident. Such possibilities often remainuncertain because the likelihood of threats and

hazards is difcult to quantify and, moreover,inherently probabilistic. Even in the governance ofrisk there is such a thing as bad luck.

The case of the London 2012 Olympicshighlights the degree to which the concept ofrisk, which 30 years ago would have been rarelymentioned in the same organisational contexts, hasbecome central to the practice of administration andour desire to anticipate and control future events.n

Will Jennings is Hallsworth Research Fellow at the School of SocialSciences, University of Manchester. From October 2008 to September2010 he held an ESRC Research Fellowship on the Olympics, Risk andRisk Management. This article is based upon interviews, meetingsand documentary research undertaken during the ESRC Fellowship.

[email protected] 306 6560ESRC Grant NumberRES-063-27-0205

i

challenges for Olympic organisers and principlesof risk management across organisations canvary due to differences in functional objectives orprofessional background. The level of acceptable

risk is, for example, quite different in Gamessecurity compared to construction. For some, zerotolerance is the norm, while for others the slackbuilt into budget contingencies or project timelinesprovides scope for absorbing risk.

The importance of reputational risk is a subjectof ongoing debate in planning for London 2012.

For some organisers, reputation is a consequenceof operational factors, so if functional objectivesare delivered, reputation should look after itself.Others are more concerned with reputation. In oneof the early feasibility studies for the London bidit was noted that: The Atlanta experience showedthe media can play an important role in deningthe perception of the success or otherwise of theGames. A recent Foreign Affairs Committee reportrecommended creation of a rapid response unitto rebut negative stories in the international mediaduring the Games, to manage reputational risks tothe UK. On top of concern with project risks and

operational risks, then, is increasing preoccupationwith the framing of risks and adverse events.

The idea of risk has been argued to beinextricably interlinked with control of the future.One of the oldest solutions to the management of

There is increasing concernwith formalised and standardisedanticipation and management of risk

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STRAIGHT TO THE point, easy navigation anddynamic research content on the important topicsfacing society today are just some of the new featuresof the ESRCs web portal, launched in January 2011.

This unique online resource is dedicated to high qualityand leading research on subjects from British business andforeign ownership to child happiness and the UKs journeyfrom recession to recovery. Through the new researchtopics section visitors will have access to topical features,case studies, informed debate and expert opinion on a rangeof topics including climate change, ageing, employmentand crime.

The innovative research catalogue has an improvedsearch feature which allows users to nd information theywant with a few taps on the keyboard. The new design of theresearch catalogue clearly details all ESRC-funded researchndings and outputs including books, papers and journalarticles, holding over 11,000 research ndings and over100,000 outputs covering the past 20 years. There are alsodetails of the impacts that research has had on the economy,society and individuals. The ESRC is committed to ensuringthat our research community makes the outputs fromESRC-funded research readily available and the researchcatalogue is one of the ways we can achieve this goal. Thisavailable source can be used by the public, business, third

sector and academics alike, by providing research on thebiggest issues affecting Britain today.

The emphasis on providing rst-time and regularvisitors with a more informative and easy-to-use resourcecontinues throughout the site. Users can navigate between

current funding opportunities, research evidence orimpact case studies by topic, collaboration schemes andpublications or, for a quick update on the latest information,read the notice board on the home page.

Professor Paul Boyle, Chief Executive of the ESRC, said:We are delighted to launch the ESRCs new website. Thesite caters for anyone with an interest in the UKs societyand economy by providing leading social science research atthe touch of a button. Visitors will now have unprecedentedaccess to expert opinion, informed debate and features onthe topic of the day.

Although the new website will deliver some signicant

changes, key services such as competition announcementsand information on ESRC funding and trainingopportunities will continue to be available on the newESRC site. The new site will not only offer an improvedservice, it also offers signicant cost savings. The sitehas been improved in response to feedback from visitorsand the academic community. It is structured around keytasks and information that visitors require. This enhancedperformance will ensure a better experience for all users.

The ESRC will continue to develop and improve thesite through user feedback. Jonathan Connor, ESRC DigitalCommunications Manager, is enthusiastic about the positivechanges ahead for the site: Our new website provides

improved functionality, design and content based around theneeds of our users; it also creates opportunities for furtherdeveloping our online presence over the coming years. n

www.esrc.ac.uk

ESRC WEBSITE

Digital developmentsThe ESRC starts 2011 with a new, improved website offering easy access to our

comprehensive research catalogue, features, expert opinion and informed debate


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On the education of the people of thiscountry the fate of the country depends.This proclamation from Benjamin Disraeli

is still shared by todays politicians acentury and a half later. Ensure access to a propereducation for all, and the result is improved well-being, prosperity and social mobility beneting bothindividuals and society in general. Or at least, that hasbeen the ambition.

But although the politicians may be willing,the results are weak or limited at best. Childrengrowing up in poorer households are still generallyunderperforming in school. Despite hopes,performance targets and rigorous testing have notpropelled ever larger numbers of British children andteenagers up the education ladder.

As research shows, there is no silver bullet totackle the education challenge. The report Poorerchildrens educational attainment: how important areattitudes and behaviour,by Alissa Goodman at theInstitute for Fiscal Studies and Professor Paul Gregg at

the ESRC Centre for Market and Public Organisation,uses data from several ESRC-funded longitudinalsurveys to analyse inuences on childrens educational

attainment. It reveals that a wide range of factors comeinto play including not only material resources, butalso aspirations and attitudes both from the child andfrom their parents.

The report, funded by the Joseph RowntreeFoundation, shows that the cracks appear at a veryearly stage. According to data from the MillenniumCohort Study there are already considerable gapsin cognitive test scores by the age of three betweenchildren in the poorest fth of the population andchildren from better-off households and these gapswiden by the age of ve. Not only cognitive abilities,but childrens social and emotional well-being follow a

similar development through childhood years.One important factor may be the home

environment and how much it encourages, ordiscourages, learning. Results show clear differencesbetween poor and better-off households both in health

The gap yearsDespite having been high on the political agenda or decades, theeducational gap between rich and poor children is still stark in Britain in2011. Research shows that a wide range o infuences conspire against

poor children gaining a good education. By Arild Foss

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and well-being, amily interactions, home learningenvironment and parenting styles.

Children rom poorer amilies enter the school

system considerably behind those rom afuentamilies. This is associated with a weaker homelearning environment and less sensitive parenting,says Proessor Paul Gregg.

Ironically, once children start school theeducational gap does not narrow; it widens morequickly. An analysis o the Avon Longitudinal Studyo Parents and Children reveals that the gap growsparticularly ast during primary school years. Poorerchildren who perormed badly at Key Stage tests atage seven were less likely to improve their rankingcompared with better-o children. And even thosepoorer children who perormed well at this age were

more likely to all behind the better-o by age 11.Only around three-quarters o children rom the

poorest th o amilies reach the expected Key Stage 2level at age 11, compared with 97 per cent o childrenrom the richest th.

Throughout the school years bright childrenrom poorer amilies drit away rom educationalachievement through lower aspirations, a lack obelie that their own eorts can lead to academicsuccess, and ewer material resources in the hometo support learning, or instance internet access,explains Proessor Gregg.

Alissa Goodman and Paul Gregg point to several

reasons why poorer children all ever urther behindduring primary school including parents aspirationsor higher education, the belie o parents and childrenin determining their lie course through their ownactions, and childrens behavioural problems. Findings

show that only 37 per cent o the poorest motherssaid they hoped their child would go to university,compared with 81 per cent o the richest mothers.Such adverse attitudes to education o disadvantagedmothers are one o the single most important actorsassociated with lower educational attainment at age

11, the researchers state in their report.By the time the children nish primary school

these gaps are wide and established. Analysis o theLongitudinal Study o Young People in Englandshowed that urther widening through teenage years isrelatively small in comparison to the childhood years.At this stage it is harder to reverse patterns o under-achievement, but attitudes and aspirations continueto be important actors. Pupils are more likely todo well at GCSEs with a good home environment,parents expecting them to go on to higher education,and access to computers and internet. Their ownattitudes are also crucial, such as a belie in their own

abilities, a belie that their actions make a dierence,an expectation o applying or and entering highereducation, and avoidance o anti-social behaviour.

These ndings suggest that attitudes andbehaviour are potentially important links betweensocio-economic disadvantage and childrenseducational attainment, conclude the researchers.They argue that policy measures should target twoareas in particular: the home learning environmentand parents aspirations, and the childs own attitudesand behaviours.

Without success in closing the education gapbetween poorer amilies and the better-o, true social

mobility and an equal society will remain an elusivepolitical goal.

As the American educational reormer HoraceMann declared: Education, beyond all other devices ohuman origin, is the great equalizer o the conditionso men the balance-wheel o the social machinery. n

Arild Foss is ESRC Copy Editor

THE GAP YEARS

Eton College pupilsgrow up with anexpectation offurther education

ESRC Centre for Market and Public Organisation

ContactProfessor Paul [email protected]/cmpo

i

The educationgap is already wellestablished by thetime children go tosecondary school

There are alreadyconsiderable gaps in cognitivetest scores by the age of three

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Professor Judith Rees, director of the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy,

talks to Martin Ince about local, national and global initiatives to tackle climate change and howevidence informs climate policy

Climate change champion

The generally accepted scientic

picture of climate change has becomeembedded in the life of decisionmakers in the UK at a national level

Judith Rees is not someone to get annoyedeasily. But she shows every sign of irritationwhen she describes how, following theCopenhagen climate conference in 2009,

the whole process of attempting to reach aninternational agreement to curb greenhouse gasemissions is described as a failure.

For her, our future approach to climate changemay not involve a big international treaty like

the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Instead, she thinks thatsolid progress on mitigating climate change andadapting to it will come from modest agreementssuch as those struck at Copenhagen and a yearlater at Cancun. These should be regarded asimportant stepping stones towards the stronginternational framework that will still be needed.

The ESRC Centre for Climate ChangeEconomics and Policy is a joint venture with theSustainability Research Institute at the University

of Leeds, where her co-director Andy Gouldson isbased. At the LSE the Centre is situated alongsidethe Grantham Research Institute on ClimateChange and the Environment, of which ProfessorRees is also director. Together this has createdperhaps the UKs biggest group of researchersinto the politics and economics of climate andenvironmental change. It numbers about 70

people in all, including associates based in otherdepartments, visiting fellows and PhD students.

Professor Rees original academic interest isin water and other natural resources, and she hasundertaken research on the energy industry. Shesays that once climate change emerged as an issue:It was always obvious that I would be involved.For one thing, climate change can have big effectson water resources. Professor Rees points out thatour ability to adapt to climate change will dependcritically on how we manage water to ensure foodsecurity and minimise the effects of extremeevents such as oods and droughts. Additionally,

the policy instruments available for cutting carbonemissions are basically the same as those whichhave already been used in attempts to managewater demand and curb water pollution. Theyinclude one family of measures which involves

trading and taxing emissions, and another whichinvolves regulation and enforcement.

As someone who speaks often to policymakers,business executives and politicians, Professor Reesis reassured by how rarely she encounters full-blown climate change scepticism. She believes:The generally accepted scientic picture ofclimate change has become embedded in the lifeof decision makers in the UK at a national level.

People in the street are less convinced, and still askwhy we have cold winters if the world is gettingwarmer. But I am impressed by the way in whichboth the last and the new UK government seem toregard managing the risks of climate change as acentral aim.

She is aware that the picture is less clear in therapidly developing countries, which are now majoremitters of greenhouse gases. On a recent trip toIndia, it was evident that climate change seems tobe accepted as a reality and is blamed for droughtsand for changes to weather patterns and growingseasons. But there was still a strong view that the

problem was caused by the advanced nations andhad to be solved by them.

However, it is now clear that action by theadvanced countries alone will not be enough tosolve climate change. Professor Rees sees that thereis growing acceptance in India and other emergentecon

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