socioeconomics, transportation trends, & scenario · pdf filemid-region council of...

Mid-Region Council of Governments

Socioeconomics,

Transportation Trends, &

Scenario Planning in the

MRCOG Region

Albuquerque – Bernalillo County

Air Quality Control Board

September 11, 2013


A Little Bit About MRCOG…

•Mid-Region Council of Governments

•Established in 1969 through State

Statute

•Regional Land Use, Water, Economic

Development & Transportation Planning

•Metropolitan Planning Organization

•Established in 1973 through the

Federal-Aid Highway Act

•Program Federal Metropolitan

Transportation $$ using the 3-C’s


Historical Trends

Mid-Region Council of Governments Urbanized Areas

43%


Slowed Pace of Growth

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

2000 -

2001

2001 -

2002

2002 -

2003

2003 -

2004

2004 -

2005

2005 -

2006

2006 -

2007

2007 -

2008

2008 -

2009

2009 -

2010

2010 -

2011

2011 -

2012

Average Annual Growth Rate Albuquerque, MSA


Economic Influences

340,000

350,000

360,000

370,000

380,000

390,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Employment Albuquerque, MSA

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Residential Units Permitted City of Albuquerque


Shifting Demographics

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

NM Migration (net)

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Birth Rate (per 1,000)


The Forecast


The 2035 Population

Forecast

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2035

2035 MTP

1.5 M

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2035

2035 Revised Forecast

1.3 M


The 2040 Population

Forecast

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040


Growing Presence within the

State

31.4% 35.3%

37.8% 39.6% 40.1%

43.1% 45.2% 46.9% 48.2%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Albuquerque MSA,

Historical and Projected


Growth in Metropolitan Areas


Absolute Growth

30 Year Growth by County

Percentage Growth

-

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

325,000

Bernalillo Sandoval Torrance Valencia

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Bernalillo Sandoval Torrance Valencia


Demographics &

Housing


An Aging Population

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

Youth

Seniors

Demographically, the boomers are sure going to shake things up!


Shrinking Workforce

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2040

Seniors

Working Age

Youth


Demographics

Very Similar

Very Different


Generation Y

Born early 1980’s to early 2000’s

They are 3 times more likely to use transit

(18% compared with 6%)

63% are expected to move within the next 5

years

Preference for smaller home closer to work


Age of Housing by Type

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

SF MF

1940 - 1959

1960 - 1979

1980 - 1999

2000 +


Multi-Family Construction

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Share of MF permits in Albuquerque


Residential Permits in the

“Urban Core”

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Percentage within Albuquerque's 1960’s Boundary


Commercial Permits in the

“Urban Core”

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Percentage within Albuquerque's 1960's Boundary


Projected Land Use Pattern


Today Future Scenario


The River Crossing Dilemma

1 of 2 jobs will locate west of the Rio Grande

3 of every 4 persons will locate west of the Rio

Grande

Sustained jobs - housing imbalance

1.5 jobs for each home on the east side

0.56 of a job for each home on the west side.


The 2035 Metropolitan

Transportation Plan


What is an MTP?

Anticipate future growth over 20+ years

Consider impacts of growth on

infrastructure

Prioritize regional transportation needs

Requires air quality

conformity determination

Fiscally constrained project list

Collaborative, Comprehensive & Continuous


Roadway

Enhancements

2012-2035

$3 billion in increased

capacity

600 new lane miles

North-south capacity

New network

9 new/reconstructed

interchanges

ISLETA PUEBLO

SANTA ANAPUEBLO

ZIA PUEBLO

SAN FELIPEPUEBLO

SANDIAPUEBLO

S A N D O V A L C O U N T YS A N D O V A L C O U N T Y

T O R R A N C E C O U N T YT O R R A N C E C O U N T YV A L E N C I AV A L E N C I A

C O U N T YC O U N T Y

B E R N A L I L L O C O U N T YB E R N A L I L L O C O U N T Y

Peralta

Tijeras

Corrales

Los Lunas

Rio Rancho

Bernalillo

Albuquerque

Bosque Farms

Los Ranchos

Rio

Gra

nde

I-40

N.M. 6

N.M. 337

I-2

5

N.M. 1

4

N.M

. 31

3

CENTRAL

N.M

. 47

N.M

. 31

4

CO

OR

S

LOMAS

MENAUL

N.M

. 16

5

N.M

. 528

U.S. 550

EU

BA

NK

TR

AM

WA

Y

BR

OA

DW

AY

PASEO DEL NORTE

WY

OM

ING

N.M. 536

4T

H S

T

ISLE

TA

BLV

D.

COMANCHE

IRVING

MONTANO

CANDELARIA

JU

AN

TA

BO

IRIS

CA

RL

ISLE

ACADEMY

GIBSON

NORTHERN BLVD.

HA

GA

N R

D.

MONTGOMERY

GIR

AR

D

N.M

. 45

PA

SE

O D

EL V

OLC

AN

UN

SE

R B

LV

D

YA

LE

TULIP

SOUTHERN BLVD

OSUNA

UN

SE

R B

LVD

.

ALAMEDA BLVD.

BRIDGE BLVD.

N.M. 317

UN

IVE

RS

ITY

JE

FF

ER

SO

N

GRIEGOS

N.M. 263

KIM RD.

DENNIS CHAVEZ

SARA

RIO BRAVO BLVD.

IDALIA R

D.

CONSTITUTION

PASEO DEL VOLCAN

PAJARITO RD.

UN

IVE

RS

E B

LV

D.

19TH AVE.

RAYMAC

98T

H S

T

MCMAHON

CHAVEZ

ENCHANTE

D

HILLS

RD.

RA

INB

OW

BLV

D.

10T

H S

T.

CHER

RY RD.

N.M

.147

40T

H S

T

MORRIS RD.

CO

ORS

OSUNA

2N

D S

T

CO

RR

ALE

S R

D

LO

UIS

IAN

A

I-40

COPPER

I-25

SA

N M

AT

EO

0 42 Miles

11/10

L

Source: MRCOG.

2008-2035 Change in Lanes

Lane reduction

Add center turn lane

2-3 lane increase

4-5 lane increase

AMPA Boundary

New or RebuiltInterchange

ISLETA PUEBLO

SANTA ANA

PUEBLO

ZIA PUEBLO

SAN FELIPEPUEBLO

SANDIAPUEBLO





Peralta

Tijeras

Corrales

Los Lunas

Rio Rancho

Bernalillo

Albuquerque

Bosque Farms

Los Ranchos

Rio

Gra

nd

e

0 42 Miles

3/11

2035 SE Data on 2035 Build Network

PM Peak Hour V/C

Acceptable V/C=0 - 0.89

Approaching Capacity V/C=0.9 - .99

Over Capacity V/C=1.0 - 1.09

Severely Congested 1 V/C=1.1 - 1.49

Severely Congested 2 V/C>1.5

AMPA Boundary

L

Source: MRCOG.

ISLETA PUEBLO

SANTA ANAPUEBLO

ZIA PUEBLO

SAN FELIPEPUEBLO

SANDIAPUEBLO





Peralta

Tijeras

Corrales

Los Lunas

Rio Rancho

Bernalillo

Albuquerque

Bosque Farms

Los Ranchos

Rio

Gra

nde

0 42 Miles

10/10

2035 SE Data on 2015 No Build Network

PM Peak HourV/C

Acceptable V/C=0 - 0.89

Approaching Capacity V/C=0.9 - .99

Over Capacity V/C=1.0 - 1.09

Severely Congested 1 V/C=1.1 - 1.49

Severely Congested 2 V/C>1.5

AMPA Boundary

L

Source: MRCOG.

2035 No-Build 2035 Build


2035 Summary

Miles on our roads: 16 million to 24 million (+ 50%)

Hours on our roads: 400,000 to 740,000 (+ 80%)

Average speeds: 40 mph to 33 mph (- 17%)

Trips across the river: 492,000 to 960,000 (+94%)

•These are draft figures that reflect the new population projections released by UNM-GPS.


Key MTP Findings

River crossing congestion / No new bridges

Building our way out of congestion is not realistic

There is no silver bullet. A variety of strategies will

be necessary to tackle congestion.


MTP Toolkit

New Roads and Interchanges

Operations & Systems Management

Transit / Bus Rapid Transit

Bicycle & Pedestrian Infrastructure

Integrating Land Use & Transportation


Air Quality Control Board

Determine conformity

Compliance with EPA guidelines for

regulating mobile source emissions

Limited Maintenance Plan for CO

Recent years - Below National Ambient Air

Quality Standards


Central New Mexico

Scenario Planning Project:

An Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and

Climate Change Initiative


Only Metropolitan Planning Organization in the nation

selected to participate

Will focus on entire MRCOG region

Confront unique challenges to region

Air quality/emissions

Water resource availability

Vulnerability to drought and wildfires

Growth pressures – land consumption, transportation challenges

Climate Change

Scenario Planning Project


>$500,000 in federal funds for technical support and

consulting services ($45,000 in staff support)

Timeline: 18 months

Climate Change Action Plan for Mid-Region (FHWA)

Guidebook for other regions across the country (FHWA)

Integrated in 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan

(MRCOG)

Project Highlights


Long-range planning approach that uses growth scenarios to consider different outcomes for the region

Allows us to ask: Where are we now?

Where do we want to be?

How do we get there?

Help government agencies understand the costs and benefits of different development patterns

Integrate land use and transportation planning to manage growth through effective long-term policy decisions

What is Scenario Planning?


Why Scenario Planning?

Proactive vs. reactive approach to long-range planning

No longer makes sense to predict one future and respond to it

Standard or “business as usual approach”

findings from one MTP to next do not change

Tools are improving – easier to measure and visualize

different outcomes


Scenario Planning –

Nashville, TN

TREND SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO


Advance climate analysis in scenario planning – Analyze ability for expanded public transportation, employment and housing locations, and development patterns to reduce carbon pollution

Impact decision-making – Incorporate results into local planning efforts

and the 2040 MTP, which guides investment of federal, state, and local transportation funding.

Develop a transferrable process – Be able to replicate the

process and apply strategies to other region.

Build partnerships –Strengthen relationships between federal, state, local

and tribal governments around common goals.

Project Goals


Gather federal and local partners

Contract with planning consultant

Scenario development and analysis

Workshop – July 2014

Analyze benefits associated with various growth scenarios

Identify policy measures and action items

Integrate results into planning documents and policies across

region

Project Components


Contact Information

Kendra Watkins

Socioeconomic Program Manager

Telephone –724-3601

Email – [email protected]

Aaron Sussman, AICP

Transportation Planner

Telephone – 724-3631

Email – [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]






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