solar technologies for the transformation of our …€¦ · hydrogen and fuel cell technology...

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SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE TRANSFORMATION OF OUR ENERGY SYSTEM

Eicke R. Weber Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and University of Freiburg, Germany Fraunhofer-Chile Solar Seminar Centro de Innovacion UC Anacleto Angelini Santiago, Chile, May 27, 2015

© Fraunhofer ISE

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  Limited availability of fossil fuels

Fossil fuels get scarce

A Radical Transformation of our Energy System is Needed Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3rd Industrial Revolution!

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  Danger of drastic climate change:

  Global warming

The world gets warmer

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  Danger of drastic climate change:

  Global warming

  Loss of climate stability

“Anthropocene”

Time before present present [kys]

For reasons unknown, the last ca. 10,000 ys were

extraordinary stable: “Holocene”

Temperature fluctuations in the last 100kys

© Fraunhofer ISE

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  Danger of drastic climate change

  Risk of nuclear disasters

  Growing dependency on imports from politically unstable regions

New since recently:

Increasing economic opportunities!

Time before present present [kys]

For reasons unknown, the last ca. 10,000 ys were

extraordinary stable: “Holocene”

Temperature fluctuations in the last 100kys

© Fraunhofer ISE

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CO2 – free energy resources

  Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, dangers during operation, final storage unsolved: no sustainable solution for the global energy problem!

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CO2 – free energy resources

  Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, dangers during operation, final storage unsolved: no sustainable solution for the global energy problem

  Clean coal technologies - require carbon sequestration and long-term storage, energy inefficient, may pose danger of accidental CO2 release

  Wind – low cost, but: fluctuating production, suitable sites limited

  Hydro - can be switched on instantaneously, suitable for storage, maximum production desirable, but: suitable sites limited

  Biofuels - interesting as liquid fuel for traffic, but: low efficiency of photosynthesis, production energy intensive, competition with food plants

  Geothermal - excellent where easily accessible (example: Iceland)

  Solar energy (Photovoltaics, Solarthermal) - unlimited energy resource PV: continuous price reductions through innovation, savings of scale

© Fraunhofer ISE

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World EnergyRessources

2 – 6 per year

2010 World energy use: 16 TWy per year

COAL

Uranium

900 Total reserve

90-300 Total

Petroleum

240 Total

Natural Gas

215 Total

WIND

Waves 0.2-2 per year

60-120 per year

OTEC

Biomass

3 -11 per year

HYDRO 3 – 4 per year

TIDES

SOLAR

23,000 per year

Geothermal 0.3 – 2 per year

© R. Perez et al.

0.3 per year 2050: 28 TW

finite renewable

World Energy Ressources (TWyear)

© Fraunhofer ISE

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2 – 6 per year

2010 World energy use 16 TWy per year

COAL

Uranium

900 Total reserve

90-300 Total

Petroleum

310 Total

Natural Gas

330 Total

WIND 60-120 per year

OTEC

Biomass

3 -11 per year

HYDRO 3 – 4 per year

TIDES

SOLAR

23,000 per year

Geothermal 0.3 – 2 per year

© R. Perez et al.

0.3 per year 2050: 28 TW

finite renewable

Waves 0.2-2 per year

World Energy Ressources (TWyear)

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Cornerstones for the Transformation of our Energy System to efficient use of finally 100% renewable energy – Energy System 2.0

  Energy efficiency: buildings, production, transport

  Massive increase in renewable energies: photovoltaics, solar and geo thermal, wind, hydro, biomass...

  Fast development of the electric grid: transmission and distribution grid, bidirectional

  Small and large scale energy storage systems: electricity, hydrogen, methane, methanol, biogas, solar heat, hydro.....

  Sustainable mobility as integral part of the energy system: electric mobility with batteries and hydrogen/fuel cells

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Research for the Energy Transformation

  Largest European Solar Energy Research Institute

  about 1300 members of staff (incl. students)

  18 % basic financing

  82 % contract research , 24 % industry, 58 % public

  € 86.1 M budget (2014, incl. investments)

  >10 % growth rate (until 2013)

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE 12 Areas of Business

  Energy Efficient Buildings

  Silicon Photovoltaics

  III-V and Concentrator Photovoltaics

  Dye, Organic and Novel Solar Cells

  Photovoltaic Modules and Power Plants

  Solar Thermal Technology

  Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology

  Energy Efficient Power Electronics

  Zero-Emission Mobility

  Storage Technologies

  System Integration and Grids – Electricity, Heat, Gas

  Energy System Analysis

Foto

s ©

Fra

un

ho

fer

ISE

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Electricity generation from renewable energy Development in Germany 1990 – 2013

Year 2013 Total* 25.4%

152.6 TWh PV 4.7%

30 TWh 35.9 GW

Bio 8.0% 48 TWh

Wind 8.9%

53 TWh 34.7 GW

Hydro 3.5% 21 TWh

* Gross electricity demand

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Example: Scenario for 100% Renewable Energy Supply till 2050 in Germany

  Strong decrease of heat demand from buildings (energy renovations, ‘zero-energy’ houses

  Increase of combined-cycle heat/power plants

  Thermal storage for heating and cooling

  Coupling of electricity grid and gas pipelines through production of regenerative hydrogen and methan

  Introduction of e-mobility with battery- and fuel cell powered cars

  Use of liquid biofuels, especially for heavy trucks and air traffic

Key Features:

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Price Learning Curve of Solar Energy (c-Si Photovoltaics) - Driven by Innovation & Market Introduction! Preis über kumulierter Kapazität in GW

Learning Rate: Each time the cumulative c-Si PV production doubled, the price went down by 20 %

- by a factor of 10 in 25 years!

Solar Electricity Today: 8-10 ct/kWh in Germany, half in sun-rich countries!

Source: Navigant Consulting; EUPD PV module prices (since 2006), Graph: ISE 2014

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PV Market Growth (IEA 2014)

Source: IEA 2014

  Rapid introduction of PV globally is fueled by availability of cost-competitive, distributed energy

  In 2050 between 4.000 and 30.000 GWp PV will be installed!

  By 2015, less than 200 GWp have been installed!

We are just at the beginning of the global growth curve!

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Crystalline Silicon Technology Portfolio c-Si PV is not a Commodity, but a High-Tech Product!

material quality

  diffusion length   base conductivity

device quality   passivation of surfaces   low series resistance   light confinement

cell structures   PERC: Passivated Emitter

and Rear Cell   MWT: Metal Wrap Through   IBC-BJ: Interdigitated Back

Contact – Back Junction   HJT: Hetero Junction Technology

Adapted from Preu et al., EU-PVSEC 2009

material quality

module efficiency

Industry

Standard

IBC-BJ

HJT

PERC

MWT- PERC

20%

19%

18%

17% 16%

15% 14%

21%

device quality

BC- HJT

© Fraunhofer ISE

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World Market Outlook: Experts are Optimistic Example Sarasin Bank, November 2010

  market forecast (2010): 30 GWp in 2014, 110 GWp in 2020 annual growth rate: in the range of 20 % and 30 %

Newly installed (right)

Annual growth rate (left) Sou

rce:

Sar

asin

, So

lar

Stu

dy,

No

v 20

10

Gro

wth

rat

e

2014: ca. 45 GWp, 50 % above forecast!

Total new installations (right scale) Annual growth (left scale)

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Global PV Production Capacity and Installations

Source: Lux Research Inc., Grafik: PSE AG

Outlook for the development of supply and demand in the global PV market.

Production Capacity

Installations

Excess Capacity

Mo

du

le C

ap

aci

ty

(GW

)

Exce

ss C

ap

aci

ty (

GW

)

© Fraunhofer ISE

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High-Efficiency III/V Based Triple-Junction Solar Cells

Slide: courtesy of F. Dimroth

© Fraunhofer ISE

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World Record Solar Energy Conversion Efficiency: 46 % for a Wafer-Bonded Four-Junction Solar Cell!

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Solar Thermal Systems Solar cooling and process heat for all sectors

Methodology:

  Map the application potentials

  Component testing of durability

  Integration of solar thermal into processes

  agro-industry: freezing, drying, fermentation, sterilization, washing, …

  mining industry: e.g. leaching, electro-winning, water, …

  Energy efficiency concepts

Results:

  Affordable and flexible technology

  Local supply chain and engineering (value and jobs)

  Minimized technical and financial risks

  Optimal business models

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Combined CSP-CPV power plant One of a number of concepts for ALMA: 1MW CPV, 1MW CSP-turbine, 18hrs storage, 24hrs stable elctricity Combination of solar generators:

  CPV -> electricity supply for the day

  CSP+Storage -> supply for the night

Results:

  Yearly solar yield: 10.4 GWh

  Operation hours: 8640 h

  Cost of electricity: ca.14 $ct/kWh

  Electricity from Diesel: >20 $ct/kWh!

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Optimization of Germany’s future energy system based on hourly modeling

REMod-D

Renewable Energy Model – Deutschland

Electricity generation, storage and end-use

Fuels (including biomass and synthetic

fuels from RE)

Mobility (battery-electric,

hydrogen, conv. fuel mix)

Processes in industry and

tertiary sector

Heat (buildings,

incl. storage and heating networks)

Comprehensive analysis of the overall system

Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning 2014

© Fraunhofer ISE


TWh

TraktionH2-Bedarf

45

11TWh

TWh39

TWh

14TWh

Einzelgebäude mit Sole-Wärmepumpe

Solarthermie

11

Solarthermie 8 Gebäude9

TWhel. WP Luft 43

TWh

TWh44

4

Einzelgebäude mit Gas-Wärmepumpe

13TWh

14 4

W-Speicher

GWth TWh 60 TWh

82TWh

220TWh

420

22 GWth TWh 103 GWh51 W-Speicher14el. WP Sole

Biomasse

TWh

0

TWh15

KWK-BHKW

Solarthermie 13

TWh

Strombedarf gesamt (ohne

Strom für Wärme und MIV)

375

TWhTWh

3

GWgas 0

220

0TWh

0Sabatier Methan-Sp.

H2-Speicher

7 GWth TWh

TWh 41

3

GWth

Gas-WP

W-Speicher25

20

40TWh

388 TWh

20 GWth TWh Wärmenetze mit GuD-KWK

7 GWth TWh

W-Speicher

TWh Wärmenetze mit BHKW-KWK

Wärmebedarf gesamt

TWh

26

TWh

TWh

217TWh

82

16TWh

GWel

TWh 23

4TWh

9 Pump-Sp-KW 7TWh

TWh

6TWh

GasturbineW-Speicher

Steink.-KW Braunk.-KW Öl-KW3 GW 0 GW5 GW 0 GW 7 GW

Atom-KWPV Wind On Wind Off Wasserkraft

112TWh

103TWh

147

Batterien24 GWh

GW 120 GW 32 GW143

TWh

5TWh 60 GWh TWh

TWh

Einzelgebäude mit Luft-Wärmepumpe

GWth

Gebäude8

TWh

7TWh 50

14

4 TWh

TWh

19 GWth TWh GWh

Einzelgebäude mit Gaskessel

TWhGaskessel 71 Gebäude

32 GWth

0

4

Gebäude59

0.0

TWh3734

Solarthermie 6 W-Speicher

Gebäude15

27 GWh

23TWh

TWh

TWh 173 GWh

3

TWh

ungenutzter Strom (Abregelung)

TWh0

TWh26

TWh12

TWh

TWh

5TWh

TWh

241 TWh

Gebäude4

87

TWh 6 TWh

Gebäude59

7 GWth TWh

3

TWh

WP zentral 20

KWK-GuD 2735 GWel TWh

20

60TWh

7

GW

Einzelgebäude mit Mini-BHKW

6 46

WP zentral 23

4

8TWh

TWh

Verkehr (ohne

Schienenverkehr/Strom)

Brennstoff-basierter Verkehr

Batterie-basierter Verkehr

Wasserstoff-basierter Verkehr

137

TWhTWh

TWhTWh

TWhTWhTWhTraktion gesamt

BrennstoffeTraktion

erneuerbare Energien primäre Stromerzeugung fossil-nukleare Energien

14 GWth TWh 56 GWh

86 TWhGeothermie 6 Gebäude

2 GWth

10

TWh

TWh108 TWh

57 TWh

0TWh

3TWh

TWh 173

Wärmenetze mit Tiefen-Geothermie

TWh

Brennstoffe

TWhErdgas 394

TWh

4

TWh22

TWh

Elektrolyse

8233 GWel

4

21TWh

0TWh

TWh 26

1 GW

GuD-KW

ungenutztWarmwasserRaumheizung290 TWh 98 TWh 2

Solarthermie

GWhMini-BHKW 23

GWh

TWhSolarthermie 13

20 GWth

GWel TWh

TWh0.6

GWth TWh

TWh

W-Speicher

TWh

TWh76

6

4182

StrombedarfTraktion

Solarthermie 12 6

TWh

73TWh

25 TWhBrennstoffe

55220

100% Wert 2010

335

TWh

TWh

Treibstoff Verkehr

55TWh

420 TWh

Brennstoff-basierte Prozesse in

Industrie und Gewerbe

gesamt 445 TWhSolarthermie

%

4155

© F

raun

hofe

r ISE

Optimization of Germany’s future energy system based on hourly modeling

REMod-D

Renewable Energy Model – Deutschland


© Fraunhofer ISE


TWh

TraktionH2-Bedarf

45

11TWh

TWh39

TWh

14TWh


Solarthermie

11


TWhel. WP Luft 43

TWh

TWh44

4


13TWh

14 4

W-Speicher

GWth TWh 60 TWh

82TWh

220TWh

420


Biomasse

TWh

0

TWh15

KWK-BHKW

Solarthermie 13

TWh



375

TWhTWh

3

GWgas 0

220

0TWh


H2-Speicher

7 GWth TWh

TWh 41

3

GWth

Gas-WP

W-Speicher25

20

40TWh

388 TWh


7 GWth TWh

W-Speicher


Wärmebedarf gesamt

TWh

26

TWh

TWh

217TWh

82

16TWh

GWel

TWh 23

4TWh

9 Pump-Sp-KW 7TWh

TWh

6TWh




112TWh

103TWh

147

Batterien24 GWh

GW 120 GW 32 GW143

TWh

5TWh 60 GWh TWh

TWh


GWth

Gebäude8

TWh

7TWh 50

14

4 TWh

TWh

19 GWth TWh GWh



32 GWth

0

4

Gebäude59

0.0

TWh3734


Gebäude15

27 GWh

23TWh

TWh

TWh 173 GWh

3

TWh


TWh0

TWh26

TWh12

TWh

TWh

5TWh

TWh

241 TWh

Gebäude4

87

TWh 6 TWh

Gebäude59

7 GWth TWh

3

TWh

WP zentral 20


20

60TWh

7

GW


6 46

WP zentral 23

4

8TWh

TWh

Verkehr (ohne





137

TWhTWh

TWhTWh


BrennstoffeTraktion


14 GWth TWh 56 GWh


2 GWth

10

TWh

TWh108 TWh

57 TWh

0TWh

3TWh

TWh 173


TWh

Brennstoffe

TWhErdgas 394

TWh

4

TWh22

TWh

Elektrolyse

8233 GWel

4

21TWh

0TWh

TWh 26

1 GW

GuD-KW


Solarthermie

GWhMini-BHKW 23

GWh

TWhSolarthermie 13

20 GWth

GWel TWh

TWh0.6

GWth TWh

TWh

W-Speicher

TWh

TWh76

6

4182

StrombedarfTraktion

Solarthermie 12 6

TWh

73TWh

25 TWhBrennstoffe

55220

100% Wert 2010

335

TWh

TWh

Treibstoff Verkehr

55TWh

420 TWh




%

4155

© F

raun

hofe

r ISE

Electricity generation

Photovoltaics 147 GWel

Medium and large size CHP (connected to district heating)

60 GWel

Onshore Wind

120 GWel

Offshore Wind 32 GWel


© Fraunhofer ISE


TWh

TraktionH2-Bedarf

45

11TWh

TWh39

TWh

14TWh


Solarthermie

11


TWhel. WP Luft 43

TWh

TWh44

4


13TWh

14 4

W-Speicher

GWth TWh 60 TWh

82TWh

220TWh

420


Biomasse

TWh

0

TWh15

KWK-BHKW

Solarthermie 13

TWh



375

TWhTWh

3

GWgas 0

220

0TWh


H2-Speicher

7 GWth TWh

TWh 41

3

GWth

Gas-WP

W-Speicher25

20

40TWh

388 TWh


7 GWth TWh

W-Speicher


Wärmebedarf gesamt

TWh

26

TWh

TWh

217TWh

82

16TWh

GWel

TWh 23

4TWh

9 Pump-Sp-KW 7TWh

TWh

6TWh




112TWh

103TWh

147

Batterien24 GWh

GW 120 GW 32 GW143

TWh

5TWh 60 GWh TWh

TWh


GWth

Gebäude8

TWh

7TWh 50

14

4 TWh

TWh

19 GWth TWh GWh



32 GWth

0

4

Gebäude59

0.0

TWh3734


Gebäude15

27 GWh

23TWh

TWh

TWh 173 GWh

3

TWh


TWh0

TWh26

TWh12

TWh

TWh

5TWh

TWh

241 TWh

Gebäude4

87

TWh 6 TWh

Gebäude59

7 GWth TWh

3

TWh

WP zentral 20


20

60TWh

7

GW


6 46

WP zentral 23

4

8TWh

TWh

Verkehr (ohne





137

TWhTWh

TWhTWh


BrennstoffeTraktion


14 GWth TWh 56 GWh


2 GWth

10

TWh

TWh108 TWh

57 TWh

0TWh

3TWh

TWh 173


TWh

Brennstoffe

TWhErdgas 394

TWh

4

TWh22

TWh

Elektrolyse

8233 GWel

4

21TWh

0TWh

TWh 26

1 GW

GuD-KW


Solarthermie

GWhMini-BHKW 23

GWh

TWhSolarthermie 13

20 GWth

GWel TWh

TWh0.6

GWth TWh

TWh

W-Speicher

TWh

TWh76

6

4182

StrombedarfTraktion

Solarthermie 12 6

TWh

73TWh

25 TWhBrennstoffe

55220

100% Wert 2010

335

TWh

TWh

Treibstoff Verkehr

55TWh

420 TWh




%

4155

© F

raun

hofe

r ISE

Storage

Heat buffers in buildings Total 320 GWh (e.g. 7 Mio units with 800 Litres each)

Large scale heat storage in district heating systems Total 350 GWh (e.g. 150 units with 50.000 m³ each)

Pumped storage power plants 42 units with a total of 60 GWh

Stationary batteries Total 24 GWh (e.g. 8 Mio units with 3 kWh each)

Electrolysers with total capacity of 33 GWel (needed for mobility)


© Fraunhofer ISE


Investments vs. saved fuel cost in bill. € p.a.

Fuel price increase 2 % cumulatively avoided fuel cost 1072 bill. €

0 % 679 bill. €

1 % 851 bill. €

cumulative investments 515 bill. €


© Fraunhofer ISE

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RE-Power Generation in Grids Support for Energy Sector in Chile

Optimizer Tool RE Technology Mix

(Invest & Operation)

Ressources Data base Power plants

Transmission capacities Demand profiles

Technology models of Renewable Energies

Site evaluation: Demand vs. resource

Technology-Mix Wind, PV, CSP, Gasturbines,..

Operation Strategies power plants

© Fraunhofer ISE

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  The global energy transformation is the challenge of our generation, it will be the first step of the needed transformation to sustainability.

  A near-100% renewable energy system that is safe, cost-effective and sustainable is possible, at similar cost as today’s energy supply.

  Solar technologies will be the key pillar of our future energy system

  This includes solar thermal systems, solar photovoltaics, solar water desalination, and solar fuels for mobility

  We are just at the beginning of this development, there are great economic opportunities ahead for countries and companies devoted to these technologies

  Fraunhofer ISE is proud to support solar developments in Chile with the new Center for Solar Energy Technologies CSET, to be inaugurated tomorrow, Mai 28, 2015!

Solar Technologies for the Transformation of our Energy System

© Fraunhofer ISE

31

Thank you for your Attention!

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

Eicke R. Weber, Hans-Martin Henning and ISE coworkers

www.ise.fraunhofer.de

[email protected], [email protected]

solar technologies for the transformation of our …€¦ · hydrogen and fuel cell technology...

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