South Florida Demographics Part IIHow South Florida Compares To Its Metro Peers On

Census 2000 Socio-Economic Status Indicators

Presented By: Dr. John P. McHenryPresident, Demographic Data For Decision-Making, Inc.

305-591-1224 demographicdata@bellsouth.net

At the Urban Land Institute’s

2nd Annual State of the Region Economic Symposium, Broward County Convention Center: Thursday, November 7, 2002

MSA Review

History

• In 1940’s, no countrywide statistical standard for “metropolitan” areas

• Variety of definitions used

• Bureau of Budget developed “standard metropolitan area” definition in time for 1950 U.S. Census

General Metro Concept

• “An area containing a recognized population nucleus and adjacent communities that have a high degree of integration with that nucleus.”

• Source: Federal Register / Vol. 65, No. 249/Wednesday, December 27, 2000/ Notes

• Provide nationally consistent definitions for collecting, tabulating, and publishing federal data

• Definitions based on “applying published standards to Census data”

• OK as info in debate on public policies or used for statistical comparisons

Purpose of Metro Definition (According to Office of Management and Budget)

Improper Use of Metro Definition(According to OMB)

• Implement non-statistical programs

• Determine program eligibility

Other Considerations

• General OMB concerns:– Definitions do not necessarily equate to

urban/rural classification• Non-metro areas not all rural;

• Metro areas not all urban

– County-level definitions (Metro area components are counties) mask local variability and are too blunt a definitional instrument

Changes in Metro Terminology

• 1949 = Standard Metropolitan Area (SMA)

• 1959 = Standard Metropolitan Statistical area (SMSA)

• 1983 = Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

• 1990 = Metropolitan Area (MA), including, in order of increasing size by 1999:– MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area), N=261

– PMSA (Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area), N=76

– CMSA (Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area), N=19

• 2003 (proposed)– MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area (again)

– CSA = Combined Statistical Area

Census 2000: Top 50 MA’sPop

2000 Rank April 1, 2000 April 1, 1990 Number Percent

1 New York--Northern New Jersey--Long Island, NY--NJ--CT--PA CMSA21,199,865 19,549,649 1,650,216 8.4% 5602

2 Los Angeles--Riverside--Orange County, CA CMSA 16,373,645 14,531,529 1,842,116 12.7% 4472

3 Chicago--Gary--Kenosha, IL--IN--WI CMSA 9,157,540 8,239,820 917,720 11.1% 1602

4 Washington--Baltimore, DC--MD--VA--WV CMSA 7,608,070 6,727,050 881,020 13.1% 8872

5 San Francisco--Oakland--San Jose, CA CMSA 7,039,362 6,253,311 786,051 12.6% 7362

6 Philadelphia--Wilmington--Atlantic City, PA--NJ--DE--MD CMSA6,188,463 5,892,937 295,526 5.0% 6162

7 Boston--Worcester--Lawrence, MA--NH--ME--CT CMSA 5,819,100 5,455,403 363,697 6.7% 1122

8 Detroit--Ann Arbor--Flint, MI CMSA 5,456,428 5,187,171 269,257 5.2% 2162

9 Dallas--Fort Worth, TX CMSA 5,221,801 4,037,282 1,184,519 29.3% 1922

10 Houston--Galveston--Brazoria, TX CMSA 4,669,571 3,731,131 938,440 25.2% 3362

11 Atlanta, GA MSA 4,112,198 2,959,950 1,152,248 38.9% 0520

12 Miami--Fort Lauderdale, FL CMSA 3,876,380 3,192,582 683,798 21.4% 4992

13 Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA 3,554,760 2,970,328 584,432 19.7% 7602

14 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 3,251,876 2,238,480 1,013,396 45.3% 6200

15 Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--WI MSA 2,968,806 2,538,834 429,972 16.9% 5120

16 Cleveland--Akron, OH CMSA 2,945,831 2,859,644 86,187 3.0% 1692

17 San Diego, CA MSA 2,813,833 2,498,016 315,817 12.6% 7320

18 St. Louis, MO--IL MSA 2,603,607 2,492,525 111,082 4.5% 7040

19 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 2,581,506 1,980,140 601,366 30.4% 2082

20 San Juan--Caguas--Arecibo, PR CMSA 2,450,292 2,270,808 179,484 7.9% 7442

21 Tampa--St. Petersburg--Clearwater, FL MSA 2,395,997 2,067,959 328,038 15.9% 8280

22 Pittsburgh, PA MSA 2,358,695 2,394,811 -36,116 -1.5% 6280

23 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 2,265,223 1,793,476 471,747 26.3% 6442

24 Cincinnati--Hamilton, OH--KY--IN CMSA 1,979,202 1,817,571 161,631 8.9% 1642

25 Sacramento--Yolo, CA CMSA 1,796,857 1,481,102 315,755 21.3% 6922

26 Kansas City, MO--KS MSA 1,776,062 1,582,875 193,187 12.2% 376027 Milwaukee--Racine, WI CMSA 1,689,572 1,607,183 82,389 5.1% 5082

31 Norfolk--Virginia Beach--Newport News, VA--NC MSA 1,569,541 1,443,244 126,297 8.8% 5720

32 Las Vegas, NV--AZ MSA 1,563,282 852,737 710,545 83.3% 4120

33 Columbus, OH MSA 1,540,157 1,345,450 194,707 14.5% 1840

34 Charlotte--Gastonia--Rock Hill, NC--SC MSA 1,499,293 1,162,093 337,200 29.0% 1520

35 New Orleans, LA MSA 1,337,726 1,285,270 52,456 4.1% 5560

36 Salt Lake City--Ogden, UT MSA 1,333,914 1,072,227 261,687 24.4% 7160

37 Greensboro--Winston-Salem--High Point, NC MSA 1,251,509 1,050,304 201,205 19.2% 3120

38 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 1,249,763 846,227 403,536 47.7% 0640

39 Nashville, TN MSA 1,231,311 985,026 246,285 25.0% 5360

40 Providence--Fall River--Warwick, RI--MA MSA 1,188,613 1,134,350 54,263 4.8% 6480

41 Raleigh--Durham--Chapel Hill, NC MSA 1,187,941 855,545 332,396 38.9% 6640

42 Hartford, CT MSA 1,183,110 1,157,585 25,525 2.2% 3280

43 Buffalo--Niagara Falls, NY MSA 1,170,111 1,189,288 -19,177 -1.6% 1280

44 Memphis, TN--AR--MS MSA 1,135,614 1,007,306 128,308 12.7% 4920

45 West Palm Beach--Boca Raton, FL MSA 1,131,184 863,518 267,666 31.0% 8960

46 Jacksonville, FL MSA 1,100,491 906,727 193,764 21.4% 3600

47 Rochester, NY MSA 1,098,201 1,062,470 35,731 3.4% 6840

48 Grand Rapids--Muskegon--Holland, MI MSA 1,088,514 937,891 150,623 16.1% 3000

49 Oklahoma City, OK MSA 1,083,346 958,839 124,507 13.0% 5880

50 Louisville, KY--IN MSA 1,025,598 948,829 76,769 8.1% 4520

Census Population Change, 1990 to 2000MSA/

CMSA Code Area

South Florida MA’s

• The Miami-Fort Lauderdale CMSA has the 12th largest population (3,876,380).– Comprised of Miami-Dade and Broward

Counties

• The West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA has the 45th largest population at 1,131,184– Comprised solely of Palm Beach County

And, In Terms of Inter-Censal Population Growth (1990-2000)

• Miami-Fort Lauderdale ranks 11th nationally in absolute population increase (+683,798) and 15th in percentage population increase (21.4%), while

• West Palm Beach ranks 45th nationally in absolute population increase (+267,666) and 7th in percentage increase (31.0%)

Why Not A Combination of Miami-Fort Lauderdale &

West Palm Beach-Boca: South FloridaPop

2000 Rank April 1, 2000 April 1, 1990 Number Percent

1 New York--Northern New Jersey--Long Island, NY--NJ--CT--PA CMSA 21,199,865 19,549,649 1,650,216 8.4% 5602

2 Los Angeles--Riverside--Orange County, CA CMSA 16,373,645 14,531,529 1,842,116 12.7% 4472

3 Chicago--Gary--Kenosha, IL--IN--WI CMSA 9,157,540 8,239,820 917,720 11.1% 1602

4 Washington--Baltimore, DC--MD--VA--WV CMSA 7,608,070 6,727,050 881,020 13.1% 8872

5 San Francisco--Oakland--San Jose, CA CMSA 7,039,362 6,253,311 786,051 12.6% 7362

6 Philadelphia--Wilmington--Atlantic City, PA--NJ--DE--MD CMSA 6,188,463 5,892,937 295,526 5.0% 6162

7 Boston--Worcester--Lawrence, MA--NH--ME--CT CMSA 5,819,100 5,455,403 363,697 6.7% 1122

8 Detroit--Ann Arbor--Flint, MI CMSA 5,456,428 5,187,171 269,257 5.2% 2162

9 Dallas--Fort Worth, TX CMSA 5,221,801 4,037,282 1,184,519 29.3% 1922

10 South Florida Proposed CMSA 5,007,564 4,056,100 951,464 23.5% 4992

11 Houston--Galveston--Brazoria, TX CMSA 4,669,571 3,731,131 938,440 25.2% 3362

12 Atlanta, GA MSA 4,112,198 2,959,950 1,152,248 38.9% 0520

13 Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA 3,554,760 2,970,328 584,432 19.7% 7602

14 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 3,251,876 2,238,480 1,013,396 45.3% 6200

15 Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--WI MSA 2,968,806 2,538,834 429,972 16.9% 5120

16 Cleveland--Akron, OH CMSA 2,945,831 2,859,644 86,187 3.0% 1692

17 San Diego, CA MSA 2,813,833 2,498,016 315,817 12.6% 7320

18 St. Louis, MO--IL MSA 2,603,607 2,492,525 111,082 4.5% 7040

19 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 2,581,506 1,980,140 601,366 30.4% 2082

20 San Juan--Caguas--Arecibo, PR CMSA 2,450,292 2,270,808 179,484 7.9% 7442

21 Tampa--St. Petersburg--Clearwater, FL MSA 2,395,997 2,067,959 328,038 15.9% 8280

22 Pittsburgh, PA MSA 2,358,695 2,394,811 -36,116 -1.5% 6280

23 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 2,265,223 1,793,476 471,747 26.3% 6442

24 Cincinnati--Hamilton, OH--KY--IN CMSA 1,979,202 1,817,571 161,631 8.9% 1642

25 Sacramento--Yolo, CA CMSA 1,796,857 1,481,102 315,755 21.3% 6922

26 Kansas City, MO--KS MSA 1,776,062 1,582,875 193,187 12.2% 3760

27 Milwaukee--Racine, WI CMSA 1,689,572 1,607,183 82,389 5.1% 5082

28 Orlando, FL MSA 1,644,561 1,224,852 419,709 34.3% 5960

29 Indianapolis, IN MSA 1,607,486 1,380,491 226,995 16.4% 3480

30 San Antonio, TX MSA 1,592,383 1,324,749 267,634 20.2% 7240

31 Norfolk--Virginia Beach--Newport News, VA--NC MSA 1,569,541 1,443,244 126,297 8.8% 5720

32 Las Vegas, NV--AZ MSA 1,563,282 852,737 710,545 83.3% 4120

33 Columbus, OH MSA 1,540,157 1,345,450 194,707 14.5% 1840

34 Charlotte--Gastonia--Rock Hill, NC--SC MSA 1,499,293 1,162,093 337,200 29.0% 1520

35 New Orleans, LA MSA 1,337,726 1,285,270 52,456 4.1% 5560

36 Salt Lake City--Ogden, UT MSA 1,333,914 1,072,227 261,687 24.4% 7160

37 Greensboro--Winston-Salem--High Point, NC MSA 1,251,509 1,050,304 201,205 19.2% 3120

38 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 1,249,763 846,227 403,536 47.7% 0640

39 Nashville, TN MSA 1,231,311 985,026 246,285 25.0% 5360

40 Providence--Fall River--Warwick, RI--MA MSA 1,188,613 1,134,350 54,263 4.8% 6480

41 Raleigh--Durham--Chapel Hill, NC MSA 1,187,941 855,545 332,396 38.9% 6640

42 Hartford, CT MSA 1,183,110 1,157,585 25,525 2.2% 3280

43 Buffalo--Niagara Falls, NY MSA 1,170,111 1,189,288 -19,177 -1.6% 1280

44 Memphis, TN--AR--MS MSA 1,135,614 1,007,306 128,308 12.7% 4920

45 Jacksonville, FL MSA 1,100,491 906,727 193,764 21.4% 3600

46 Rochester, NY MSA 1,098,201 1,062,470 35,731 3.4% 6840

47 Grand Rapids--Muskegon--Holland, MI MSA 1,088,514 937,891 150,623 16.1% 3000

48 Oklahoma City, OK MSA 1,083,346 958,839 124,507 13.0% 5880

49 Louisville, KY--IN MSA 1,025,598 948,829 76,769 8.1% 4520

Census Population Change, 1990 to 2000MSA/ CMSA Code Area

2002-2003 OMB MSA/CSA Recommendations

• The above proposed MSA/urbanized areas are a done deal.• The proposed CSA’s are “potential CSA’s.”

– They are based on intermediate level C2000 commuting data.– They must be approved by Florida’s national Congressional Delegation which, in

turn, is free to seek local opinion.– Our Congressional Delegation also has some naming rights (but the first name must

be the name of the largest city in the proposed CSA).– Miami delegation has until the end of November, 2002 to send in its

recommendations

• There are multiple South Florida CSA possibilities, ranging from 3 to 5 to 6 or even a 7 county South Florida CSA.

C2000 C2000 CombinedCounty Designation Population CSA Population

Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach MSA 5,007,564 5,007,564Martin, Saint Lucie MSA 319,426 5,326,990

Okeechobee Urbanized Cluster 35,910 5,362,900Indian River MSA 112,947 5,475,847

As A Combined MSA, South Florida Would Be ….

• 10th nationally in population size at 5,007,564• 6th nationally in inter-censal, absolute population

growth at 951,464• 14th nationally in inter-censal percentage

population growth at 23.5% for a 2.11 annual, continuous growth rate

• On our (revised) top 10 list of MSA’s by size, only one -- Dallas –Fort Worth-- is growing at a faster rate (29.3%)

In Graphs To Follow, We Compare South Florida’s Demographics To Those We Believe To

Be Its Most Important Metro Competitors

• Top 10 Metro’s

– 1. New York

– 2. Los Angeles

– 3. Chicago

– 4. Washington D.C.

– 5. San Francisco

– 6. Philadelphia

– 7. Boston

– 8. Detroit

– 9. Dallas

• Other Important National and Regional Competitors

– 11. Houston

– 12. Atlanta

– 14* Greater Orlando

– 19* Greater Tampa

– 32* Las Vegas

– 35* New Orleans

– 45* Jacksonville

– 50+* Greater Naples

We Will Also Compare The Proposed Tri-County South Florida MSA To

• 1990 Tri-County South Florida

• 2000 U.S.A. averages

And Since We Modified South Florida, In Fairness,

We Modified Orlando, Tampa, and Naples

Revised Florida Metro/County Equivalents

• South Florida (new Census/OMB definition)

– Broward– Miami-Dade– Palm Beach

• Jacksonville (no change)– Clay– Duval– Nassau– St. Johns

• Greater Naples– Charlotte*– Collier– Lee*

• Greater Orlando– Brevard*– Flagler*– Lake– Orange– Osceola– Seminole– Volusia*

• Greater Tampa– Hernando– Hillsborough– Manatee*– Pasco– Pinellas– Polk*– Sarasota

* = county added to “official MSA definition by DDD. The full 2003 updated metro list has not yet been officially released.

Transportation Comparisons

Commuting Hours

Average Travel Time

Mode Of Transportation

Percent Early Rising Commuters: 12: A.M. to 5:59 A.M. (V151a)

• Very few South Floridians start their commutes this early – 7% in 2000 and 6% in 1990.

• The Las Vegas metro area is an outlier here with relatively high percentages commuting to work in the mid-night hours.

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Percent Prime-Time Commuters: 6:00 A.M. to 8:59 A.M. (V151b)

• In 1990, 70.0% of South Floridian workers began their commute in prime time, but by 2000, the percentage has dropped to 67.3%.

• Relatively few works in Las Vegas commute to work during prime time hours.

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Average Travel Time To Work (V141)

• New York is the outlier at 34.1 minutes.• South Florida2000 commuters were ranked 8th at 28.2 minutes.• In 1990, South Florida commuters only averaged 23.0 minutes – so the traffic

situation is clearly getting worse.

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Percent Take Car, Truck Or Van To Work, Alone (V136)

• Here South Florida has slightly greater than average percentages of “lone commuters” in 2000 at 77.3%, up marginally from the 1990 percentage (76.1%)

• However, South Florida rates are lower/better than all other Florida metros.

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Percent Workers Who Carpool In Car, Truck, Or Van (V137)

• Slightly more South Florida2000 workers carpool (13.1%) than the U.S. average (12.2%)

• But the 2000 percent is down from the South Florida1990 figure of 14.1% so we’re going the “wrong way” here.

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Percent Workers Take Public Transportation To Work (V138)

• Relatively few South Floridians take public transportation to work (3.3% in 2000 down from 3.4% in 1990.

• The New York metro is the obvious outlier here at 25%.

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Education

• Public Versus Private

• Educational Levels

Percent Private School Attendees (V155)

• South Florida private school percentages are slightly higher than average (20.0% in 2000, down from 20.5% in 1990).

• Higher percentages are typically found for northeastern and/or heavily Catholic metros.

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Percent Age 25+ With Less Than Complete High School Education (V160)

• Unfortunately, South Florida2000 has the 2nd highest percentage (23.8%) of poorly educated (didn’t complete high school) persons.

• We improved, somewhat, from South Florida1990 which had an even worse percentage -- 28.1%

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Percent Age 25+ With Some College Or Higher Education (V162)

• South Florida does not fair well at the upper end of the educational spectrum with the 5th lowest college plus percentage (50.8%).

• Still, this is a marked improvement over the 1990 percentage (44.5%).• San Francisco is an outlier on this variable, with very high educational attainment.

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Labor Force

• Civilian Participation Rate

• Unemployment Rate

Civilian Participation Rate (V171)

• Defined as: (pop age 16+ employed – military pop + pop age 16+ unemployed and looking for work)/(pop age 16+ - military pop )

• Because of its aging population, South Florida has the one of the lower civilian participation rates at 58.7% in 2000, down from 62.1% in 1990.

• Naples is a metro outlier with much lower civilian participation rates due, most likely to its large number of retirees.

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Unemployment Rate (V172)

• South Florida2000 has the 4th highest unemployment rate (6.7%), trailing Los Angeles (7.4%), New Orleans (6.8%) and virtually tied with New York.

• South Florida1990 rate was moderately lower at 6.4%

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Income/Poverty

• Overall Residential Market

• Average Household Income

• Percent In Poverty

Aggregated Annual Household Income (V1)

• South Florida household market = $110 Billion per year• South Florida ranked 10th – same as population ranking• Rank tends to follow population counts• The New York metro area market is an outlier.

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Average Annual Income Per Household (V2)

• South Florida ($57,936) is just above the U.S. average of $56,644.

• Naples is just ahead of South Florida, all other Florida metros lag behind

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aples

Housto

n

Philad

elphia

Detro

it

Los A

ngele

s

Dallas

Chicag

o

Atlant

a

Bosto

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New Y

ork

Was

hingto

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.

San F

ranc

isco

Region

$'s

Percent Below Poverty Level

• South Florida2000’s poverty rate of 14.0% is the third highest metro rate and slightly higher than the 13.7% for 1990.

• The New Orleans metro area is an outlier on this indicator.

0.0000.0200.0400.0600.0800.1000.1200.1400.1600.1800.200

Was

hingto

n D.C

.

Bosto

n

San F

ranc

isco

Atlant

a

Great

er N

aples

Chicag

o

Great

er O

rland

o

Detro

it

Jack

sonv

ille

Dallas

Philad

elphia

Great

er T

ampa

Las V

egas

USA

New Y

ork

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Housto

n

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Los A

ngele

s

New O

rlean

s

Region

Pe

rce

nt

Immigrants

• Recent Levels

• Percent Foreign Born

• Percent Citizens

• Language Issues

International Migration: 1995-2000 (V42)

• South Florida2000 leads all metros with its international migration rate of 7.4%, up moderately from the 6.1% registered over the 1985-1990 interval.

• Note – the base for these percentages is the total population (age 5+). An earlier slide used a “total migrant population” as the base.

0.0000.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.080

New O

rlean

s

Detro

it

Philad

elphia

Jack

sonv

ille

Great

er T

ampa USA

Bosto

n

Great

er N

aples

Chicag

o

Great

er O

rland

o

Was

hingto

n D.C

.

Atlant

a

Las V

egas

Los A

ngele

s

Dallas

Housto

n

New Y

ork

San F

ranc

isco

South

Flor

ida 1

990

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Region

Ra

te

Percent Foreign Born Population (V27)

• South Florida2000 is #1 at 35%, followed by metros in major U.S. ports.

• Our percentage is up considerably over South Florida1990 (29%).

• Note that we have more than 3 times the U.S. average of 11%

0.0000.0500.1000.1500.2000.2500.3000.3500.400

New O

rlean

s

Jack

sonv

ille

Detro

it

Philad

elphia

Great

er T

ampa

Great

er O

rland

o

Atlant

aUSA

Great

er N

aples

Bosto

n

Was

hingto

n D.C

.

Dallas

Chicag

o

Las V

egas

Housto

n

New Y

ork

San F

ranc

isco

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Los A

ngele

s

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Region

Per

cen

t

Percent Of Foreign Born That Have Become Citizens (V28)

• This is a decent proxy for assimilation.

• South Florida2000, at 46%, is ranked 6th -- a very good score. None of the higher ranked metros are major immigrant destinations.

• We have made a major improvement over the South Florida1990 score of 39%.

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

Dallas

Atlant

a

Housto

n

Las V

egas

Great

er N

aples

Los A

ngele

s

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Chicag

oUSA

Was

hingto

n D.C

.

Bosto

n

Great

er T

ampa

San F

ranc

isco

New Y

ork

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Great

er O

rland

o

Detro

it

Jack

sonv

ille

Philad

elphia

New O

rlean

s

Region

Per

cen

t

Language Capabilities

• English Speakers Only

• English Language Ability Of Those Whose Primary Language Is Not English

English Speaking Only (V49)

• Only Los Angeles (53%) has lower percentages of “English only” speakers.• And South Florida’s percentage has dropped dramatically from 64% in 1990 to 55%

in 2000.

0.0000.1000.2000.3000.4000.5000.6000.7000.8000.9001.000

Los

Angele

s

South

Flor

ida 2

000

South

Flor

ida 1

990

San F

ranc

isco

New Y

ork

Housto

n

Chicag

o

Dallas

Las

Vegas

Bosto

nUSA

Great

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rland

o

Was

hing

ton D

.C.

Great

er N

aples

Great

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ampa

Atlant

a

Philad

elphia

Detro

it

New O

rlean

s

Jack

sonv

ille

Region

Per

cen

t

Of Those Who, At Home, Speak A Language Other Than English – What Percent Speaks English “Not Very Well” Or “Not At All” (V51b)

• Unfortunately, 27% of South Floridians who “speak a language other than English at home” respond that they speak English “not very well” or “not at all” so we have the fifth worst score on this measure.

• This percentage is a slight improvement over the higher 29% figure of 1990.• Metros with higher percentages tend to be those with recent immigrant

population waves from Mexico (Dallas, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Houston).

0.0000.0500.1000.1500.2000.2500.3000.350

Jack

sonv

ille

New O

rlean

s

Detro

it

Great

er O

rland

o

Bosto

n

Philad

elphia

Was

hingto

n D.C

.

Great

er T

ampa

San F

ranc

isco

New Y

ork

USA

Chicag

o

Las V

egas

Great

er N

aples

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Housto

n

Los A

ngele

s

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Atlant

a

Dallas

Region

Per

cen

t

Population Mobility/Migration

• Same house (non-mobility)

• Different house/same county

• Different house/different county/same state

• Different house/different state

Percent Of Non-Movers in Population: 1995-2000 (V37)

• Half of South Floridian’s remained in their same homes from 1995 to 2000.• This represents an increase in stability over the South Florida1990 figure of 45%.• The current U.S. average is 54%, so South Floridians are more mobile than the average

U.S. citizens.

0.0000.1000.2000.3000.4000.5000.6000.700

Las V

egas

Atlant

a

Dallas

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Great

er O

rland

o

Great

er N

aples

Housto

n

Jack

sonv

ille

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Great

er T

ampa

Los A

ngele

s

San F

ranc

isco

Was

hingto

n D.C

.USA

Chicag

o

Detro

it

Bosto

n

New O

rlean

s

New Y

ork

Philad

elphia

Region

Per

cen

t

Intra-County Migration: 1995-2000 (V39)

• South Florida2000 has a high rate of intra-county migration (29.5%), almost the same as its 1990 level of 30.1%, with a 4th place ranking – behind three western metros (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Houston).

• This reinforces our notions of widespread movement within South Florida from established eastern housing units to newly developed housing units on the west sides of our counties.

0.0000.0500.1000.1500.2000.2500.3000.3500.400

Region

Per

cen

t

Inter-County/Same State Migration: 1995-2000 (V40)

• South Florida ranks very low on “inter-county/same state” migration (6% in 2000 up marginally from 5% in 1990.

• Apparently very few Floridians step-migrate down to South Florida.

• Las Vegas is an outlier with much less inter-county migration than any other region.

• The Atlanta region is an outlier with much more inter-county migration migration than any other region.

0.0000.0200.0400.0600.0800.1000.1200.1400.1600.180

Region

Perc

en

t

Interstate Migration: 1995-2000 (V41)

• South Floridians show “average” rates of interstate migration (8.5%) compared to U.S. average of 8.4% for the 1995-2000 interval.

• The South Florida2000 rate has dropped considerably from the South Florida 1985-1990 rate of 14%, indicating a decline in our attractiveness to potential out-of-state migrants.

• The metros ahead of us include Las Vegas, Atlanta, Washington D.C., Dallas, and all our Florida competitor metros.

• Las Vegas is an outlier here, with much higher interstate migration than any other metro area.

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.300

Los A

ngele

s

Detro

it

New Y

ork

San F

ranc

isco

Chicag

o

Housto

n

New O

rlean

s

Philad

elphia

Bosto

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South

Flor

ida 2

000

Dallas

Was

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.

Jack

sonv

ille

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Great

er T

ampa

Great

er O

rland

o

Atlant

a

Great

er N

aples

Las V

egas

Region

Per

cen

t

Housing

• Type of Housing Unit

• Home Ownership By Race

• Occupancy/Vacancy Info

Percent of Housing Units That Are “Single Family Detached” (V71)

• South Florida2000 trails all metros (except New York) with its 43% “single family detached” percentage.

• This percentage is up, however, from the 39% South Florida1990 percentage.

0.0000.1000.2000.3000.4000.5000.6000.7000.800

South

Flor

ida 1

990

New Y

ork

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Philad

elphia

Was

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ton D

.C.

Great

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aples

Bosto

n

Chicag

o

Las

Vegas

Los

Angele

s

Great

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ampa

San F

ranc

isco

New O

rlean

s

Housto

nUSA

Dallas

Great

er O

rland

o

Jack

sonv

ille

Atlant

a

Detro

it

Region

Per

cen

t

Percent Housing Units That Are “Single Family Attached” (V72)

• Philadelphia (28%) and Washington D.C. (22%), with their row houses, dominate – both are outliers.

• South Florida2000 ranks third at 10% -- up marginally from the 9% for South Florida1990.

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

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0.250

0.300

Region

Perc

en

t

Percent Housing Units Are 20+ Units (v75)

• To no one’s surprise, South Florida leads the country in large condo/apartment complexes at 25.1% in 2000, down marginally from 25.7% in 1990 – both numbers are outliers.

• New York is very close (24.2). It also, is a statistical outlier. And then there is a big drop off.

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.300

Detro

it

Atlant

a

Jack

sonv

ille

Great

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rland

o

New O

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s

Philad

elphia USA

Great

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Las V

egas

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Was

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Dallas

San F

ranc

isco

Chicag

o

Los A

ngele

s

Housto

n

New Y

ork

South

Flor

ida 2

000

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Region

Per

cen

t

Percent White Homeownership (V78)

• Homeownership rates for whites (including white Hispanics) are modest at 71% in 2000, up from 67% in 1990.

0.0000.1000.2000.3000.4000.5000.6000.7000.8000.900

Los A

ngele

s

San F

ranc

isco

New Y

ork

Las V

egas

Bosto

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Dallas

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Housto

n

South

Flor

ida 2

000

New O

rlean

sUSA

Jack

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ille

Was

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Chicag

o

Great

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rland

o

Atlant

a

Great

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ampa

Philad

elphia

Detro

it

Great

er N

aples

Region

Per

cen

t

Percent Black Homeownership (V79)

• Black homeownership in South Florida2000 is high (50%), ranking fourth in our metro list.

• The South Florida1990 percentage (44%) is considerably lower, so there has been some progress on this indicator.

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

Bosto

n

New Y

ork

Los A

ngele

s

San F

ranc

isco

Las V

egas

Dallas

Chicag

o

South

Flor

ida 1

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Housto

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Great

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Was

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Jack

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South

Flor

ida 2

000

Great

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Detro

it

Philad

elphia

Region

Per

cen

t

Percent Hispanic Homeownership (V84)

• South Florida2000 leads all our metro areas on Hispanic homeownership at 57%.

• This is a marked improvement over the 1990 percentage (49%).• All Florida metros do well on this indicator --probably because Florida

attracts most of its Hispanics from Cuba as well as attracting disproportionately from wealthier South American countries.

• The Boston and New York metro areas are (low) outliers on this indicator.

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

Bosto

n

New Y

ork

Atlant

a

Los A

ngele

s

Dallas

San F

ranc

isco

Was

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Philad

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Las V

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Chicag

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South

Flor

ida 1

990

New O

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Great

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Jack

sonv

ille

Detro

it

Great

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Great

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rland

o

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Region

Per

cen

t

Percent Homeownership Age 55-64 (V90)

• Homeownership peaks during this interval – so it’s a good choice for an overall measure.

• South Florida has relatively low scores on this indicator – 78.8% in 2000 up from 75.9% in 1990.

• All other Florida metros have higher scores.

0.0000.1000.2000.3000.4000.5000.6000.7000.8000.9001.000

New Y

ork

Bosto

n

Los A

ngele

s

San F

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isco

Was

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New O

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Chicag

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South

Flor

ida 1

990

Las V

egas

Philad

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Housto

n

Atlant

a

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Detro

it

Dallas

Jack

sonv

ille

Great

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rland

o

Great

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ampa

Great

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aples

Region

Per

cen

t

Percent Housing Units Occupied (V102)

• To the Census Bureau, a housing unit is not occupied unless it is the respondent’s “usual place of residence.”

• Since many Florida metros contain numerous 2nd homes, it is not surprising that we score low on this indicator – 89% in 2000, up somewhat from 85% in 1990.

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

Great

er N

aples

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Great

er T

ampa

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Las V

egas

Great

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rland

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New O

rlean

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Jack

sonv

ille

Philad

elphia

Housto

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Dallas

New Y

ork

Los A

ngele

s

Detro

it

Was

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n D.C

.

Chicag

o

Atlant

a

Bosto

n

San F

ranc

isco

Region

Per

cen

t

Percent Owner Occupied Housing Units (V103)

• The denominator here is occupied housing units (census definition of occupied).

• South Florida has average “owner occupied” percentages (66% in 2000 up from 63% in 1990).

0.0000.1000.2000.3000.4000.5000.6000.7000.8000.900

New Y

ork

Los A

ngele

s

San F

ranc

isco

Dallas

Housto

n

Las V

egas

Bosto

n

New O

rlean

s

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Was

hingto

n D.C

.

Chicag

o

South

Flor

ida 2

000

USA

Atlant

a

Jack

sonv

ille

Great

er O

rland

o

Philad

elphia

Great

er T

ampa

Detro

it

Great

er N

aples

Region

Per

cen

t

Percent Vacant Housing Units (V105)

• Note – vacant housing units here include second homes, seasonal homes, etc. The housing unit must be the resident’s “usual place of residence.”

• Because of these definitions, South Florida (11.4% in 2000 down from 14.8% in 1990) has a poor score on this indicator. The same problem plagues most other Florida metros and metros with a strong tourist/vacation influence.

0.000

0.050

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San F

ranc

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Chicag

o

Atlant

a

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.

Detro

it

New Y

ork

Los A

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Dallas

Housto

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Philad

elphia USA

Jack

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ille

New O

rlean

s

Great

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rland

o

Las V

egas

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Great

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ampa

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Great

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aples

Region

Per

cen

t

Percent Housing Units Vacant For Seasonal, Recreational, Or Occasional Use (V109)

• Here all Florida metros, except Jacksonville, rank very high on this indicator.

• Naples is the runaway leader (77%) followed by South Florida2000 (56%), up from South Florida1990’s 45%.

0.0000.1000.2000.3000.4000.5000.6000.7000.8000.900

Chicag

o

Atlant

a

Dallas

Was

hingto

n D.C

.

Detro

it

New O

rlean

s

Housto

n

Jack

sonv

ille

Philad

elphia

San F

ranc

isco

Las V

egas

Los A

ngele

s

Bosto

n

New Y

ork

USA

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Great

er O

rland

o

Great

er T

ampa

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Great

er N

aples

Region

Per

cen

t

Homeowner Vacancy Rate (V112b)

• Computed as: # vacant units for sale/(# of vacant units for sale + # of owner occupied housing units).

• South Florida2000 has the fourth highest metro homeowner vacancy rate (at 2.4%) – down somewhat from 1990’s rate of 3.1%.

• Tourist destinations (including several Florida metros) score highest on this indicator.

0.0000.0050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.035

Bosto

n

San F

ranc

isco

New Y

ork

Chicag

o

Was

hing

ton D

.C.

Detro

it

Dallas

Philad

elphia

New O

rlean

s

Housto

n

Jack

sonv

ille

Los

Angele

sUSA

Atlant

a

Great

er O

rland

o

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Great

er T

ampa

Great

er N

aples

Las

Vegas

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Region

Per

cen

t

Rental Vacancy Rate (V112a)

• Computed as: # of vacant housing units for rent / (# of vacant housing units for rent + number of occupied housing units)

• South Florida’s rental market in 2000 is a tight 6.6%, much lower than the 10.4% rate of 1990.

• Naples is the clear outlier here with a 13.3% rental vacancy rate.

0.0000.0200.0400.0600.0800.1000.1200.140

San F

ranc

isco

Bosto

n

New Y

ork

Los A

ngele

s

Was

hingto

n D.C

.

Chicag

o

South

Flor

ida 2

000

Atlant

a

Detro

it

Philad

elphia USA

Dallas

New O

rlean

s

Great

er O

rland

o

Housto

n

Las V

egas

Jack

sonv

ille

South

Flor

ida 1

990

Great

er T

ampa

Great

er N

aples

Region

Per

cen

t

Summary Caveats

Census 2000 doesn’t provide us with a complete set of indicators

Census 2000 data is 2.5 years out-of-date, but Florida’s data was just released in mid-September, 1992.

Certainly our three South Florida counties differ substantively from one another on many of these indicators, so our regional MSA average can sometimes be misleading

Nevertheless…

According To Census 2000 Data,

South Florida Is Worse Than Other Competitor Metros On:

• Public transportation > and we’re not improving

• Educational levels > but we’re getting better

• Foreign immigrant inflows > short term negative effects

• Poor English language capabilities > but we are improving slightly

According To Census 2000 Data:

South Florida Is Intermediate Compared To Other Metro Areas On

– Prime time commuting > and we’re getting a little better

– Total commuting time > but we’re getting worse

– Percent commuting alone > we’re about the same

– Percent carpooling > but we’re slightly worse

– Private schooling > and we’re about the same

– Aggregate and average household income > no comparative data

– Overall home ownership > and we’re improving slightly

According To Census 2000 Data,

South Florida Is Better Than Other Competitor Metros On:

• Immigrants who become citizens > and we’re improving

• Minority Black/Hispanic homeownership > and we’re getting better

• International migration > this is helpful in the long run