southwest florida regional economic...

Southwest Florida Regional Economic

Indicators

April 2014

Regional Economic Research Institute

Lutgert College Of Business Phone 239-590-7319 Florida Gulf Coast University 10501 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL 33965 www.fgcu.edu/cob/reri

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Table of Contents

Introduction: Regional and National Background ....................................................................................... 3

Airport Passenger Activity ............................................................................................................................ 7

Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity............................................................................................... 7

Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity ............................................................................................................ 8

Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity ..................................................................................................... 8

Tourist Tax Revenues .................................................................................................................................... 9

Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties .......................................................................................... 9

Chart 5: Lee County Tourist Tax Revenues ............................................................................................................. 10

Chart 6: Collier County Tourist Tax Revenues ........................................................................................................ 10

Chart 7: Charlotte County Tourist Tax Revenues ................................................................................................... 11

Single-Family Building Permits.................................................................................................................... 11

Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County ......................................................................................... 12

Chart 9: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County .................................................................................... 12

Chart 10: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County ............................................................................. 13

Taxable Sales ............................................................................................................................................... 13

Chart 11: Taxable Sales for the Coastal Counties ................................................................................................... 14

Chart 12: Taxable Sales for the Inland Counties ..................................................................................................... 14

Workforce – Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment .................................................................... 15

Chart 13: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment ......................................................................................... 16

Chart 14: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment .................................................................................... 16

Chart 15: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment................................................................................ 17

Chart 16: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment ................................................................................... 17

Chart 17: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment .................................................................................... 18

Sales of Existing Single–family Homes and Median Sales Prices ................................................................ 18

Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County ................................................................................. 19

Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County ............................................................................. 19

Chart 20: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County ......................................................................... 20

Consumer Confidence Index ....................................................................................................................... 20

Chart 21: Consumer Confidence Index ................................................................................................................... 21

Consumer Price Index ................................................................................................................................. 21

Chart 22: CPI Annual Percentage Change............................................................................................................... 22

Chart 23: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change ................................................................ 23

Population ................................................................................................................................................... 23

Chart 24: Coastal Counties Population Growth 1990 to 2012 ............................................................................... 24

Chart 25: Inland Counties Population Growth 1990 to 2012 ................................................................................. 24

Chart 26: Population Projections by County .......................................................................................................... 25

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Contact Information: Dr. Gary Jackson, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute

Phone: 239-590-7319 Email: [email protected] Dr. Ron Coccari, Staff Economist, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-1885 Email: [email protected] Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute

Phone: 239-590-7315 Email: [email protected] Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support

Phone: 239-590-7489 Email: [email protected]

Introduction: Regional and National Background The nation is continuing its economic recovery and Southwest Florida has benefited from a strong winter season. The winter storms (Polar Vortex) have had a negative short-term impact on the national economy but highlighted the mild winters in Southwest Florida. Taxable sales in the region were up eight percent ($141.7 million) in January 2014 over January 2013. Total tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties increased by 16 percent from February 2013 to February 2014. Passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports was 1,021,888 passengers in February 2014, up seven percent over February 2013. Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates in March 2014 showed noticeable improvement over the corresponding month of the prior year in all counties. The Florida unemployment rate is 6.3 percent lower than the national unemployment rate of 6.7 percent. The national seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate decreased from 7.5 percent in March 2013 to 6.7 percent in March 2014. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or longer) is 3.7 million or 35.8 percent of all unemployed. County employment, labor force, and unemployment information is available beginning on page 15. As reported last month, real GDP growth in the U.S. was 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 according to the third revised estimate. The real GDP growth was 4.1 percent for the third quarter of 2013, compared to 2.5 percent in the second quarter of 2013. Real personal consumption expenditure growth for the fourth quarter was 3.3 percent, compared to 2.0 percent for the third quarter. The March Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey showed that national nonfarm payroll employment increased by 192,000 for the month, approximately the same as the revised increase of 197,000 in February. The February employment increases included 57,000 in professional and business services, 34,000 in education and health services, 29,000 in leisure and hospitality, 21,300 in retail trade, 19,000 in construction, 7,900 in transportation and warehousing, 7,100 in wholesale trade, 6,000 in other services, 2,000 in information, 1,000 in financial activities In contrast, manufacturing was down by 1,000 and government showed no change. The national consumer price index increased by 1.5 percent from March 2013 to March 2014. The shelter index (rental equivalence measure for homeowner costs) has risen 2.7 percent over the last 12 months. This is the largest 12-month increase since the period ending March 2008. Medical care services increased 2.4 percent, and energy prices increased by 0.4 percent. Core inflation (all items less

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food and energy) increased by 1.7 percent. National housing prices increased 12.9 percent for the 20-city composite S & P Case-Shiller Home price index in the 12 months ended February 2014. The latest statement of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) was issued on March 19th. As noted last month, its key points included the following:

There is sufficient underlying strength in the economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions;

In light of the progress toward maximum employment, it was desired to make a further measured reduction in the pace of asset purchases;

Accordingly, the Committee announced a further reduction in the pace of its asset purchases, Beginning in April, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term treasury securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month;

Asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee’s outlook for the labor market and inflation, as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases;

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate.

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for April 29-30, 2014.

The FOMC released its latest forecast for real GDP and the unemployment rate on March 19, 2014, which is shown on the following "box and whiskers" charts. The red boxes are the central tendency forecast and the full range of uncertainty is reflected in the whiskers, or vertical lines. The March forecast was similar to the December forecast with a slightly lower range of forecast GDP growth and a lower range of forecasts for unemployment rates.

The GDP chart shows that recovery started in 2009, but it is expected to be couple more years before the economy returns to a more normal long-run trend (“LR”). For 2014, the overall projected range is 2.1 to 3.0 percent with a central tendency range of 2.8 to 3.0 percent. For 2015, the overall projected range is 2.2 to 3.5 percent with a central tendency range of 3.0 to 3.2 percent. For 2016, the overall projected range is 2.2 to 3.4 percent with a central tendency range of 2.5 to 3.0 percent. The long-run trend for Real GDP has a range of 1.8 to 2.4 percent growth with a central tendency range of 2.2 to 2.3 percent. Real GDP growth rates are based on the change from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next year.

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Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, March 19, 2014.

As shown in the chart below, the 2013 national unemployment rate was high at 7.0 percent but an improvement over the 2012 rate of 7.8 percent. For 2014, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 6.0 to 6.5 percent with a central tendency range of 6.1 to 6.3 percent. For 2015, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 5.4 to 5.9 percent with a central tendency range of 5.6 to 5.9 percent. For 2016, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 5.1 to 5.8 percent with a central tendency range of 5.2 to 5.6 percent. Long-run unemployment is expected to be in a range of 5.2 to 6.0 percent with a central tendency of 5.2 to 5.6 percent. The projections for unemployment are for the fourth quarter of each year.

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Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, March 19, 2014.

Congress passed a two-year budget agreement but issues surrounding the need to balance the long-run Federal budget remain and state budgets are improving with the economy. There remains uncertainty over the costs and implementation of the new health care law. In addition, Congress agreed to suspend the limit on federal borrowing (debt ceiling) for another year.

RERI extends its sincere thanks to all the individuals and organizations that have helped to bring together the regional information for this report. These include the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties, the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Collier and Lee Counties, the regional airport authorities, the REALTORS® of Lee and Collier County, the University of Florida Survey Research Center, and the county and city permit offices.

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Airport Passenger Activity Airport passenger activity is the sum of arrivals and departures for Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate the seasonality of airport passenger traffic and the changes from year to year. Activity for the three Southwest Florida airports climbed to 1,021,888 passengers in February 2014, an increase of seven percent over February 2013. Chart 1 shows SW Florida International Airport passenger activity of 862,899 in February 2014, the highest February on record, and four percent over February 2013. Sarasota Bradenton passenger activity amounted to 102,988 passengers in February 2014, five percent below February 2013 but four percent above January 2014, as shown in Chart 2. Punta Gorda reported passenger activity of 56,001 in February 2014, up 167 percent over February 2013, as shown in Chart 3.

Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity

Source: Local Airport Authorities

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Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity


Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity


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Tourist Tax Revenues Tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties are shown in Charts 4 through 7, based on month of occupancy. Beginning with last month’s report, tourist taxes are shown on a seasonally-adjusted basis, in order to better depict underlying trends. Total tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties of Lee, Collier, and Charlotte are shown in Chart 4 for five years plus the current year to date; while the individual county charts focus on the most recent 13 months. For February 2014, total tourism tax revenues showed a 16-percent increase over February 2013, continuing the strong trend seen throughout 2013. Lee County seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues amounted to $2,739,254 in February 2014, an increase of 15 percent over February 2013, as shown in Chart 5. Collier County’s February 2014 tourist tax revenues grew to $1,490,879, a 16-percent improvement over February 2013, as shown in Chart 6. Charlotte County had seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for February 2014 of $230,206, up 20 percent over February 2013, as shown in Chart 7.

Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties

Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports

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Chart 5: Lee County Tourist Tax Revenues


Chart 6: Collier County Tourist Tax Revenues


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Chart 7: Charlotte County Tourist Tax Revenues


Single-Family Building Permits Lee County issued 245 permits in March 2014, up 10 percent from March 2013, as shown in Chart 8. Collier County data for March was not available as this report was published; Chart 9 shows results through February 2014. Charlotte County issued 43 permits in March 2014, up from 29 issued in March 2013, as shown in Chart 10. Hendry County has issued two permits through March 2014.

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Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County

Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County,

Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits.

Chart 9: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County

Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only.

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Chart 10: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County

Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only.

Taxable Sales Taxable sales data track consumer spending, an important component of the regional economy. The following charts show the latest month of merchants’ collections, one month earlier than the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. The five reporting counties reported total taxable sales of $1.99 billion, an 8-percent gain ($141.7 million) for January 2014 compared to January 2013. Taxable sales for the region were six-percent lower than the prior month of December 2013. Taxable sales for the coastal counties are shown in Chart 11. Lee County taxable sales rose to $1,051.4 million for January 2104, a seven-percent increase over January 2013. Collier County reported taxable sales of $710.7 million in January 2014, up nine percent over January 2013. Charlotte County’s taxable sales of $196.7 million in January 2014 were five-percent higher than January 2013. Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties continue to show strongly positive year-over-year comparisons for every month over the past two years. Taxable sales for Hendry and Glades Counties are shown in Chart 12. Hendry’s taxable sales of $26.6 million in January 2014 were 11 percent above the January 2013 figure. Glades County reported January 2014 taxable sales of $2.7 million, a drop of six percent from January 2013.

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Chart 11: Taxable Sales for the Coastal Counties

Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research

Chart 12: Taxable Sales for the Inland Counties

Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research

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Workforce – Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts 13 through 17 show total persons employed and unemployed, as well as the unemployment rate for each county from January 2005 to March 2014, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Unemployment rates above five or six percent generally reflect cyclical unemployment and a slowdown of the economy from long-run trends.

The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates in March 2014 showed noticeable improvement over March 2013, most edged up slightly compared to the prior month of February 2014. Lee County's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 6.3 percent in March 2014, up from the February 2014 figure of 6.2 percent, but below the 7.5 percent figure of March 2013. Collier County’s unemployment rate was 6.0 percent in March 2014, slightly above the 5.9 percent figure of February 2014, and 1.2 percentage points below March 2013. Charlotte County had an unemployment rate of 6.4 percent in March 2014, up from 6.3 percent in February 2014, but below the 7.5 percent of March 2013. Hendry County’s February and March employment and unemployment data had some large swings and are being reviewed. We did not include the February and March data in this month’s report but hope to solve the discrepancy before next month’s report. Hendry’s employment picture through January 2014 is depicted in Chart 16. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Glades County was 7.1 percent in March 2014, slightly higher than 7.0 percent in February 2014, and down from 8.0 percent in the March 2013 figure. Florida’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6.3 percent in March 2014 from 6.2 percent in February 2014, but dropped 1.4 percentage points from March 2013. This is its lowest level since June 2008. Nationally, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate remained at 6.7 percent in March 2014, albeit 0.8 percentage points below the March 2013 figure.

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Chart 13: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI

Chart 14: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment


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Chart 15: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment


Chart 16: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment


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Chart 17: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment


Sales of Existing Single–family Homes and Median Sales Prices Charts 18 through 20 show the existing single-family home sales by a Realtor® for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties. The line represents median prices with the scale on the right side; and the bars represent the number of homes sold with the scale on the left side. Sales of single-family homes in the three coastal counties amounted to 1,849 units in March 2014, up 34 percent from February 2014, but 28 units fewer than March 2013. Lee, Charlotte, and Collier Counties each saw higher median prices in March 2014, compared to March 2013. Lee County sales of 1,068 units were down seven percent from March 2013, and the median price increased nine percent over the same period to $185,000. Sales were 37-percent higher than the previous month’s figure of 779. Collier County had 431 single-family home sales in March 2014, a three percent increase from March 2013, accompanied by a 26-percent increase in median price to $360,000. Charlotte County recorded 350 single-family home sales in March 2014, up 13 percent from March 2013. The median price of $142,500 in March 2014 was seven percent higher than that of March 2013.

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Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County

Source: REALTOR® Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, Inc.

Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County

* Does not include Marco Island.

Source: Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR) www.naplesarea.com

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http://www.naplesarea.com/

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Chart 20: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County

Source: Florida REALTORS ® Punta Gorda, Florida MSA ; http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.html

Consumer Confidence Index Chart 21 shows monthly data for the last three years and a linear trend line based on that data for both the Florida Consumer Confidence Index (“CCI”) reported by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and for the United States Index of Consumer Sentiment (“ICS”) reported by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. The trend continues to be positive for both indices. The national ICS dipped to 80.0 in March 2014 from 81.6 in February 2014, but was 1.4 points above March 2013. As noted in the March 28th Survey of Consumers: “The current state of consumer finances were(sic) just as strong in March as in December, and more importantly, consumers viewed their financial prospects for the year ahead much more favorably in March than at the start of the winter season. The gains in personal finances were offset by rising concerns about the outlook for the overall economy. While consumers still anticipate that the national economy will continue to grow during the year ahead, they have become increasingly concerned about the ability of the economy to avoid a downturn sometime in the next five years”. The Florida Consumer Confidence Index rose to 81 in March 2014, an increase of 3 points over the prior month and 5 points higher than March 2013. “This increase is consistent with our expectations that consumer sentiment among Floridians would remain near post-recession highs, given relatively good economic news and the more budget certainty with deals to fund federal budgets through this year,” said Chris McCarty, the Survey Director. “While keeping in mind that an index number of 81 is modest when looking at the entire history of the index, it is as high as we have achieved since before the recession began in December 2007”.

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http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.html

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Chart 21: Consumer Confidence Index

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida and Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan

Consumer Price Index As noted last month, year-to-year changes in consumer price indices (CPI) through February 2014 are shown in Chart 22. These changes reflect reductions in the rate of growth of CPI’s. The National CPI grew by 1.1 percent from February 2013 to February 2014, compared to 2.0 percent from February 2012 to February 2012. The Southern Region CPI growth rate dipped to 1.2 percent for the 12 months ending February 2014, compared to 1.8 percent in the period ending February 2013. The Miami-Ft. Lauderdale CPI increase was 1.6 percent from February 2013 to February 2014 2013 compared to an increase of 1.9 percent from February 2012 to February 2013.

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Chart 22: CPI Annual Percentage Change

Source: BLS The components of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending February 2014 are shown in Chart 23. The largest increases from February 2013 were seen in apparel costs (6.0 percent), other goods and services (3.6 percent), medical care (3.2 percent), and housing (2.8 percent). The transportation cost segment declined, by 2.9 percent.

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Chart 23: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change

Source: BLS

Population As we have previously reported, the following charts reflect updated county population forecasts released by Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR) working with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). Population growth from 1990 to 2012 is shown in Charts 24 and 25. Collier County grew at a compound average annual growth rate of 3.6 percent from 1990 to 2012. Lee County’s population grew at an annual rate of 3.0 percent. Charlotte, Glades, and Hendry Counties had average annual rates of population growth between 1.8 and 2.4 percent per year. Chart 26 and its accompanying table show projected population increases from 2015 to 2040. These projections are consistent with those previously reported. The overall rate of regional growth still averages 1.6 percent compounded per year for this period, resulting in a 28-year increase of 55 percent for the five-county region from 2012 to 2040. Projected growth rates in all five counties are substantially below their actual growth rates for the period 1990 – 2012

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Chart 24: Coastal Counties Population Growth 1990 to 2012

Source: Florida EDR: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 2013 and BEBR Florida Population Studies, March 2013.

Chart 25: Inland Counties Population Growth 1990 to 2012


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Chart 26: Population Projections by County


2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Glades 13,286 14,135 14,953 15,723 16,442 17,127

Hendry 38,488 39,615 40,665 41,620 42,484 43,279

Charlotte 164,784 173,129 181,028 188,302 194,940 201,123

Collier 341,959 375,585 408,254 439,367 468,770 497,011

Lee 674,992 763,232 847,963 928,484 1,004,503 1,077,279

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Population Projections 2015 - 2040

southwest florida regional economic...

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