SOVIET & RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS SOVIET & RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS

Mackinder’s Heartland TheoryDrawn from Ratzel’s geographic view of state as organism

Mackinder’s Heartland Theory

Whoever controls “Heartland” (Pivot Area) can control world

The “Great Game” between Britain, Russia, 1800s-1900s

Maritime powers need controlin “Rimland” (Inner Crescent), esp. Middle East

Prevent Russo-German allianceor Russian control of Germany

Containment Theory

Extension of Mackinder

Isolation of Soviets after 1917

George Kennan (State Dep’t)resurrects after WWII

Encircle USSR with militarybases, treaties, alliances

Containment Theory

View of Communist “Red Bloc” during Cold War

Lumping failed to recognizedifferences among Communists,

or local causes of conflict(Vietnam War 1960s)

NATO and Warsaw Pact, 1945-89

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NATO and Warsaw Pact

NATO not all democratic(Portugal, Spain, Greece, Turkey)

Brezhnev Doctrine preventsdemocratization in East

U.S. saw Soviets as “totalitarian,” rightist dictators as “authoritarian”

Greece 1968

Czechoslovakia 1968

WW III possible flashpoints

West Germany/West Berlin(1948, 1961)

Yugoslavia (1946, 1980s)

Cuba (1961, 1962)

Iran (1946, 1980)

Fears of Soviet invasion?

Military budgetsBoth economies reliant onmilitary-industrial complex

U.S. forced Sovietsto keep up? (Star Wars 1983).

Military spending stillup since Cold War

National Missile Defenseas US nuclear umbrella

Third World • US-USSR indirect “hot wars”

• Struggles mainly nationalist not Communist

• Third World competed for aid until Cold War ended

• East-West competition in culture

Cuba

Vietnam

Star Trek

Third World Soviets pro-”liberation” in Cuba,

Vietnam, Angola, South Africa, Chile,

Nicaragua, Palestine, etc.

East German posters

China Rivalry Mao felt Khrushchevsold out Communism

Competed in Third World

Cultural Revolution inChina, 1960s

China Rivalry

Historic ChineseClaims in Siberia

Border clashes, 1969

Nearly nuclear war

China Card, 1972 Nixon visits Moscow,Détente started

Nixon visits China as counterweight

Russian fear of West,East teaming up

Also saw West as protection from China

George Orwell’s 1984

“Oceania” (NATO)

“Eurasia” (USSR)

“Eastasia” (China)

On the sixth day of Hate Week, after the processions, the speeches, the shouting, the singing, the banners… the rolling of drums and squealing of trumpets, the tramp of marching feet, the grinding of the caterpillars of tanks, the roar of massed planes, the booming of guns… at just this moment it had been announced that Oceania was not after all at war with Eurasia. Oceania was at war with Eastasia. Eurasia was an ally. There was, of course, no admission that any change had taken place. Merely it became known, with extreme suddenness and everywhere at once, that Eastasia and not Eurasia was the enemy…. Oceania was at war with Eastasia: Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.

Soviet military overextendedbeyond Russian Empire

Too far to(Muslim) South

Lost in Afghanistan

Too far to(Catholic) West

Unraveled inPoland, Baltics

Too far to EastDivertedby China

Breakup of Soviet Union into 15 states, 1991

Atlanticists vs. Eurasianists(both want Russia as great power)

Atlanticists(Modernizers)

Lean to West

Russia European

Statist

Eurasianists(Slavophiles)

Mistrust West

Unique E-W bridge

Nationalist

Russia’s geopolitical fears revisited

Threatfrom EastResurgentChina

Threat from WestNATO expansion,

U.S. missile defense

Threat from SouthMuslim fundamentalism

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 2004

Kosovomilitaryzones

19991999

1999

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 2004

New members:

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Slovakia

Slovenia

Romania

Bulgaria

Not yet:

Croatia

Macedonia

Albania

Russian fears rekindled

Historic buffer vs. West shrunk- Expanded NATO border on Russia

Kaliningrad enclave cut off by NATO

NATO intervenes vs. Serbs in ex-Yugo.-Russians balance force in Kosovo

U.S. troops in Hungary, Bosnia, Kosovo

Iraq Crisis, 2003

Russia sides with Germany, France, Belgium- Mackinder theory- Like brief Soviet alliance with France, 1935-39

Eastern European NATO members side with U.S. -Polish troops head up sector, others send non-combat - Polls show majority public opposition (all but Romania)

Historic realignment underway?- Independent Western Europe with Russia- U.S. sphere of influence in UK, East-Central Europe

Government Positions on Iraq War, 2004Blue: Supported war (some withdrew 2005) Green: Did not oppose war

Red: Opposed war Gray: Neutral

In E. Europepolls, onlyRomanians

backed their government’s

pro-warposition

New U.S. military bases

1. Gulf War, 1991

2. Yugoslav Wars, 1995-99

3. Afghan War, 2001

4. Iraq War, 2003

Base clusters left over from recent wars creating a

U.S. “sphere of influence” between Europe, Russia

and East Asia?

Russian preferences

Independent European military force-Taking over ex-Yugo. peacekeeping

“Decoupling” of U.S., Western Europe

Or Russia becoming full NATO member

Reassurance for Putin?

Partnership for Peace

Future NATO membership for Russia, CIS?

U.S.-Russian oil alliance vs. OPEC

Allow free hand in Chechnya, Georgia

Russian intervention in Caucasus region

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Caspian Basin

oil and gaspipelines

Routes throughRussia, Turkey, Iran,China, Afghanistan

Oil/gas pipeline routes

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Putin vs. Muslims

Crushed Muslim secession in Chechnya, curbed in Tatarstan

Fought Muslim rebels in Uzbek., Tajik. Allowed U.S. troops in Central Asia, Georgia after 9/11

Continued verbal support forIraqi, Palestinian people

Putin and East Asia

Visited China, placated Eurasianists

China better economy, huge market

1/4 million Chinese illegals in Siberia

Asian companies in Siberia

Japan talks over trade, Kuril Is. claims

How Many Americans View the World

Cartoon:

Bush’s Viewof the World

Problem:some formerallies laterseen as “evil”

Samuel Huntington theory of Western, Islamic, Slavic, etc. “blocs” in conflict with each other.

“Clash of Civilizations” theory

Fails to recognize differences within each “bloc.”

Most sources of conflict are local (often ethnic), not religious.

Often blames the victimfor the conflict (Chechens, etc).

West shares responsibility(military aid arms both sides)

“Clash of Civilizations” theory

“Push” of USSR, “Pull” of EU

EuropeanUnion

Began as EuropeanEconomic

Community(EEC), 1957.

EU decision 1988;

Implemented 1994

euro

EuropeanUnion

10 new members join, 2004

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Poland

Czech Rep.

Slovakia

Hungary

Slovenia

Cyprus

Malta

2007:

Romania

Bulgaria

Turkey ???

A “Blue Curtain”?

Catholic/Protestant West

Orthodox/Muslim East

Who will be welcomein the EU “club”?

Orthodox Greece in EU

A “Blue Curtain”?Eastern Europe asa “Mexico” for West?

Less developed economy;Reserve for labor?

Bordertowersmovedfrom Hungaryto Austria

Religious minorities

Orthodox stuck in West:

Serbs in Croatia (expelled)

Russians in Kaliningrad

Russians in Baltic States

Catholics stuck in East:

Croats in Bosnia

Hungarians in Romania

“Uniates” in western Ukraine

Poles in Ukraine/Belarus

Also Lutheran Karelian Finns in Russia

Religious minorities