space and poverty

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.05 ** P>.0I

t Statistics in parenthesis

* Interaction indices are for the same racial group as the dependent variable i.e. the white

concentraction equation includes white interaction with blacks, and white interaction with hispanics.


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Variable

Table IB

3SLS Estimate of Concentration ,Model

Dependent Variable: Poverty

Log White

Poverty Rate

Log Black

Poverty Rate

Log Hispanic

Poverty Rate

Intercept

Log % ]Employment

4.742 5.7 I** 2.736

(i.55) (2.97) (1.30)

Manufacturing

Trade

Business Services

Professional

Services

-0.002*

-0.001" -.002**

(2.55) (2.18)

(3.48)

-0.246

0.066 -0.186

(0.43)

(0.18) (0.43)

-0.597"

0.533* 0.747**

(2.14)

(2.12) (2.71)

-1.179" -0.261

0.305

(2.2I) (0.82)

(0.71)

Log % High School 0.444

-0.570** -0.555**

Graduates*

(1.05) (3.45)

(3.56)

Log Median Age*

- 1.24 I** -0.800*

-0.444

(2.76) (2.12) . (.148)

Log Unemployment

White 1.439 *

(5.59)

Black

--

Hispanic

0.762**

(3.91)

0.886**

(4.45)

* For same demographic group as dependent variable.

* P>.05 ** P>.01

t Statistics inparenthesis


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P

0

~

.u

I

-I

v

~ C>

,4

cO

~J

i.j

r

0~

-d I~

(:~ Pt

Pl

(u

o

.J

~J

~0 E,I

N

v

o. r~

.,o

(J

(:

~3

c:~ o,

(;


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Table 1D

3SLS Estimate of Concentration Model: Unemployment

Log Unemployment

Variable

Intercept

White Black H__~anic

- I.(535 0.722 0,294

(0.68) (0.27)

(0.12)

Log % Employment in:

Manufacturing

Trade

Business Services

Professional Services

0.002** 0.002*

0.001

(3.05) (:.63)

(1.71)

0.002 0.358

0.525

(0.00) (0.69) (1.07)

-0.622"* -.858"* -0.614*

(3.03) (4.18)

(2.46)

-0.506 0.670 1.I 59*

(0.97) (1.63) (2.67)

Log % High School

0.698 0.355 -0.094

Graduates*

(1.03) (0.81) (0,53)

Log Median Age* 0.732* 0.011 -0.282

(2.54) {0.02) (0.94)

Log Concentration

1.264"* 0.979** 0.507*

of Poverty* (3.46) f2.761

(2.68)

* For same demographic group as dependent variable.

t statistics in parenthesis

*

p

05 **

p>

01


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Concentration

Actual levels

Table 2

Estimated MSA Unemployment rates

Using Coefficients from Table 1A

Unemployment rates

White Black Hispanic

5.11 11.28 8.79

A t race-specific

minimum 2.91 5.94 6.77

At average white

concentration 5.11 6.73 7.00

At race-specific

minimum

Percentage decline, compared to unemployment

at actual concentration levels

White

Black

Hispanic

43.1 473 22.9

A)t average white

concentration

40.3 20.4


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Tabte 3

Logit Models of Employment Probabilities for At-Home Youth

(t-ratios in parentheses)

Variable Model I

Modte II Model III

Sex

(l=female)

Residence

( I =Central City)

Age

(years)

Education

(years)

In-Schooi

(l=yes)

Female Headed Household

(l=yes)

Education of head parent

(years)

Family income

(thousands of dollars)

MSA unemployment rate

(adult, white workers)

Race

(l=black)

Ethnicity

(1=hispanic)

0.016 0.016 0.016

(0.69) (0.68)

(0.68)

-0.071 ** -0.059" -0.058"

(2.68) (2.22) (2.20)

-0.079* 0.079"" 0o079"*

(5.37) (5.37) (5.39)

-0.159 0.158 0.158 *

(14.29) (14.24) (14.20)

-0.529** -0.530** -0.530"*

(17.54) (I7.56) (17.55)

-0.211"* -0.207"*

-0.207"*

(6.51) (6.39) (6.39)

-0.028

-0.028"* -0.028*

(7.23)

(7.25) (7.24)

-0.003*

-0.003"*

-0.003""

(3.87) (3.93) (3.94)

-0.048" -0.049* -0.050"*

(4.85) (5,05)

(5.00)

-0.696* 0.088 0.087

(18.47) (0.43) (0.41)

-0.I93"* 0.043 0.013

(4.41) (0.28) (0.08)

Concentration:

White -1.903"* .... 0.237

(2.61) (0.20)

Black -0.344 .... 0.084

(1.05)

(0.25)

Hispanic

Concentration interacted

with youths race:

White * White youth

Black * Black youth

Hispanic * Hispanic youth

0.081 ....

0.223

(0.22) (0.59)

-I.974"* -2.595"

(3.13) (2.04)

-3.270* -3.525"*

(5.45) (5.04)

-2.101" -2.335

(3.75)

(3.56)

Log likelihood

Number of observations

23974.91 23959.44 23959.01

55,41I 55,411 55,411

* P>.05 **P>.OI

Logit models also include 10 variables indicating youth industrial affiliation, 3 region

dummies, and intercept terms.


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Table 4

Logit Models of Employment Probabilites for At-Home Youth

(t-ratios in parentheses)

Variable White Black

Hispanic

Sex 0.023 0.028 -0.152

(1 =female) (0.88) (0.85) (1.89)

Residence -0.052 -0.071

-0.024

(l=central city) (1.68)

(1.05) (0.28)

Age 0.047**

0.089" 0.188**

(y ears)

(2.66) (2.42) (4.24)

Education 0.190"* 0.152"* 0.051

(years) (I 3.41)

(5.55) (1.94)

I~-School -0.538"* -0.468* -0.522""

(1--yes) (15.1 O) (6.48) (5.46)

Female headed household -0.203** -0.213"* -0.104

(1 =yes)

(5.t 3) (2.99)

(1.02)

Education of -0.037** 0.014 -0.019*

head of household (8.00) (1.37) (2.02)

Family income -0.003 **

0.001 0.002

(thousands of dollars)

(4.3 I)

(0.45) (0.79)

MSA unemployment rate

-0.049"* -0.075"* 0.050

(adult, white worker) (4.59) (2.77) (1.04)

Concentration

-2.329**

-Io737" -1.968

(3.56) (2.53) (1.86)

Log likelihood

Number of observations

P > .05 ** P> .01

18435.73 338987 2033.66

40289 9667 5455

Logit modelslso include 10 variables indicating industrial affiliation ofyouth, 3 region

dummyvariables, and an intercept term.


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Table 5

Logit Coefficients for Concentration Effects interacted with

Central City Residence

Variables Coefficients

White youth:

White Concentration

White Concentration

*Central City

Black youth:

Black Concentration

Black Concentration

*Central City

Hisoanic youth:

Hispanic Concentration


*Central City

Log likelihood.

Observations

-0.827

(1.19)

-4.333**

(429)

-1.919"*

(2.81)

-2.000**

(4.30)

-0.273

(0.35)

-2.593**

(3.99)

23949.36

55,4t 1

** P >.01

Logits include all control variables noted in Table 2.


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Variables

White youth:

White Concentration

Table 6

Logit Coefficients for Concentration effects

interacted with Central City Residence

Including MSA Dummies

Coefficients

White Concentration

*Central City

BIack youth:

Black Concentration

Black Concentration

*Central City

~anic youth:



*Central City

Log Likelihood

Observations

-1.412

(1.05)

-3.710"*

(3.47)

-2.253**

(2.81)

-1.811**

(3.71)

-0.358

(0.41)

-2.255**

(3.30)

23892.89

55,411

* P >.05 **P


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Table 7

Estimated Youth Employment Probabilities

Using Logit Coefficients from Table 6

Concentration

Actual levels

Emolovment Probabilities

White

Btack

CC Non-CC CC Non-CC

Hislganic

CC Non-CC

.474 .90

.217 .268 .323 .409

At race-specific

minimum .517 ,502 .306 .322 .364 .414

At average white

concentration

.474 .489 .297 .316 .361 .413

Concentration

At race-specific

minimum

Percentage change, compared to employment

probability at actual concentration levels

Wh te Black HisDa n ic

CC Non-CC CC Non-CC CC Non-CC

9.1 2.4 41.0 20.1 I2.7 1.2

At average white

concentration 36.9 I7.9 11.8 1.0


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APPENDIX

Table A 1

Poverty Concentration Measures, 1980

Metropolitan rea

White Black Hispanic

Albany

.knaheim

Atlanea

Baltimore

Birmingham

Boston

BuffMo

Chicago

Cincinnati

Cleveland

Columbus

I) allas

I) ayton

Denver

Detroit

Fort Lauderdale

G

reensboro

Houston

Indianapolis

Kansas City

Los Angeles

Louisville

Miami

Milwaukee

Minneapolis

Nashville

New Orlean-~

New York

Newark

Oklahoma ity

Philadelphia

Phoenix

Pittsburgh

Portland

Providence

Riverside

Rochester

Sacremento

Saint ouis

Salt ake City

S

an

Antonio

San Diego

San Francisco

San Jose

Seattle

Tampa

Washington,

C

0.139 0.296 0.184

0.087 0.110

0.123

0.125 0.371 0.240

0.139 0.346 0.252

0.164 0.246 0.236

0,142 0.329

0.304

0.144 0.362 0.329

0.103 0.367

0.237

0.144 0.357 0.232

0.128 0.380 0.306

0.174 0.326 0.269

0.117

0.312

0.196

0.148 0.316 0.255

0o116 0.372 0.255

0.124 0.315 0.250

0.111

0.295 0.135

0.139

0.266

- 0.245

0.102 0.237 0.159

0.137 0270 0.214

0,121

0.284 0.215

0.137 0.293 0.224

0.173

0.402

0.319

0.175 0.333 0.230

0.117

0.332 0.246

0.I17

0.306

0.216

0.158

0.366

0.289

0o157

0.409

0.215

0.177

0.376

0.380

0.123

0.341 0.327

0.158

0.284 0.231

0.138 0.347 0.372

0.132

0.312 0.261

0.126 0.335

0.212

0.121 0.264 0.138

0I~8 0.321 0.281

0.148 0.201

0.183

0.128

0.298

0.300

0.144 0.218

0.204

0.119 0.331

0.231

0.123 0.254 0.184

0.168

0.318 0.301

0.143 0.240

0.206

0.120 0.279 0.172

0.088

0.141

0.146

0.107 0.214

0.145

0.156 0.375

0.222

0.076

0.222

0.126

Average 0.134 0.301

0.234


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