space debris: from the ivory tower to creating …...space debris: from the ivory tower to creating...
TRANSCRIPT
Space Debris: From the Ivory Tower to Creating Public Awareness
Ward MuntersInstitute for International Law & Leuven Centre for Global Governance Studies, KU Leuven
Space Debris: The Problem
Median speed between twospace objects colliding
= 12 km/s= +‐ 40,000 km/h
Hypervelocity impacts (> 6km/s)
Space Debris: The Problem
GEO
LEO
• ~ # Debris• >10cm: ~ 30.000• >1cm: ~ 700.000• >1mm ~ 170.000.000
Source: ESA
KESSLER SYNDROME?
Source: NASA
C975: 11%‐ 4000 catalogued‐ 40000 LNTs
C850: 1%‐ 16000 catalogued‐ 160,000 LNTs
Modeled time evolution of afragmentation cloud generatedby the explosion of anAriane‐1 H‐10 upper stageon Nov. 13, 1986
FACTORS IMPACTING SUBSTANTIVE INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATIONS?
[T]ime + [L]ocation + [S]tateT1L2S1
T1L1S2
T1L3S1
TIMEObject Population Flux‐Debris population (LNTs)‐Object population‐MicroMeteoroids‐Collisional Reservoirs (Graveyard)
PMD Cycles‐25 years‐5 years‐…
Variable Decay Rates‐Atmospheric variability
Tech Development‐Varying capability levels
Air and Suborbital Traffic
Launch Traffic
Human Presence
Regime Change
Space Weather…
LOCATIONObject Population Flux‐Debris population (LNTs)‐Object population‐MicroMeteoroids‐Collisional Reservoirs (Graveyard)
PMD Cycles‐25 years‐5 years‐…
Variable Decay Rates‐Atmospheric variability
Tech Development‐Varying capability levels
Air and Suborbital Traffic
Launch Traffic
Human Presence
Regime Change
Space Weather…
STATESignatory Status?
Practice‐Persistent Objector?
Standard of Development
Historical ContributionsCurrent Capabilities
Civilian/Military?
National Legislation?
‘Complex Geometry’…
P x C: Spatiotemporal
4D‐Array of continuously variable risk Variable obligations?
4D‐Arrayed Orbital Space
Collision Risk:
The Ivory Tower
Create Public Awareness!
Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space?
Prevention of Space Debris?
Create Political Awareness!