spaces & places: 2016 regional development briefing
TRANSCRIPT
Welcome!
Aaron NelsonPresident & CEO
Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce
Thank you, briefing sponsors!
René Hendrickson Real Estate
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Gold Sponsors
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Thank you to our 2016 Major Investors!
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Dwight Bassett Economic Development Officer
Town of Chapel Hill
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___Dwight Bassett,
Economic Development Officer
[share info…]
“No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's
not the same river and he's not the same man.
You could not step twice into the same rivers; for
other waters are ever flowing on to you.”Heraclitus
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Approved
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Carolina Square> 300 Residential Units
> 159,000 SF Office
> 55,000 SF Retail
Glen Lennox> 1,500 Residential Units
> 600,000 SF Office
> 150,000 SF Retail
> 150 Hotel rooms
South Creek
> 600 Residential Units
> 600,000 SF Office/Civic
> 475,000 SF Retail
> 130 Hotel rooms
Ephesus-
Church/Fordham> 1,000 +/- Residential Units
> 350,000 +/- SF Office
> 250,000 +/- SF Retail
> 150 +/- Hotel rooms
Carraway Village(Eubanks Road)
> 400 Residential Units
> 100,000 SF Office
> 120,000 SF Retail
> 150+/- Hotel rooms
Hotel
Mixed-use
Mixed-use
Residential
415 W Franklin
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Commercial Development Strategy
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MISSION: Support opportunities to put Chapel
Hill’s people to work, and create economic prosperity for all, now and in the future.
TARGETS: Output of Medical School, Pharmacy
School (and research), Applied Sciences and Technology
1) Strengthen the Town-Gown Relationship
2) Work becomes part of The Life of The Town
3) Tell our Story
1) Strengthen the Town-Gown Relationship
For 200 years, this has been the place people go to college and then leave. The downtown hasbecome a place to dine, but not to shop or work. The town and the university need to coordinate their growth, so that this becomes one lively and diverse place.
2) Work becomes part of The Life of The Town
People want to start companies here, but there is not enough room for them to grow, especiallydowntown, where they can walk to coffee. Skilled and creative people need not only offices andlabs to design and make things, but workshops and studios as well.
3) Tell our Story
The name “Chapel Hill” is nationally recognized. To locals, this is still “The Village”, with stonewalls and the shade of stately trees that beckon for conversation. It offers something differentthan Boulder, Berkeley or Cambridge. For the post-doc looking to settle down, this can be theirnew hometown.
For Pride: Chapel Hill is nationally recognized as an intellectual center, but it lacks the local jobs and business that translate new ideas into new products and services that have impact on the world.
For Prosperity: More jobs and business will create community wealth and build the tax base.
For People: Recent graduates will be able to start their careers and families here, filling outthe middle of the generations.
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Market conditions
Office – 8-9% +/- vacancy(approximate 2.4 million SF)
Retail – 6% +/-vacancy(approximate 2. million SF)
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Room for growth!
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Marketing___
Follow us @CHEconDev
Tell our Story![ ]
Tell our Story![ ]
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Market Demand
Office> In walkable environment
> Changing the regional development
perspective of Chapel Hill
> Up to 1,000,000 SF of demand
Retail>To meet growing demand of existing
businesses
> To capture more of our own demand (up to 1,000,000 SF by 2020)
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Mark Zimmerman Owner
RE/MAX Winning Edge
Places and SpacesThe Residential Real Estate Market
August 25, 2016
Mark Zimmerman
Broker/Owner - RE/MAX Winning Edge
Please note:
All data from Triangle Multiple Listing Service &
10K Research and Marketing
All data through July, 2016
County review, not cities
Focused on single family detached
Not multi-family (townhouse/condo)
No rentals/apartments
2016 - The Year that Just Keeps Giving
2016 builds on 2015 success
Momentum continues through 2nd quarter
Reaching or surpassing historic highs
Closed Sales Continue Steady Climb
YTD July:
● Orange
○ +9.0%
● Chatham
○ +9.0%
● Durham
○ +9.2%
Closed Sales - Closing in on Historic Peaks
2016 - The Year that Just Keeps Giving
Shortage of listings
Particularly in Durham
Multiple offers
Lower inventory at all price points
Month’s Supply of Homes for Sale
July:
● Orange
○ 4.6 months
○ -27.0%
● Chatham
○ 5.4 months
○ -8.5%
● Durham
○ 2.1 months
○ -27.6%
Month’s Supply by Price Point - Orange
July:
● $459,000+
○ 7.3 months
○ -33.0%
● $290,000 - $459,000
○ 3.1 months
○ -43.6%
● $179,000 - $289,000
○ 2.8 months
○ -30.0%
Month’s Supply by Price Point - Chatham
July:
● $475,000+
○ 11.3 months
○ -4.2%
● $325,000 - $475,000
○ 4.3 months
○ -10.4%
● $204,000 - $325,000
○ 1.7 months
○ -52.8%
Month’s Supply by Price Point - Durham
July:
● $246,000+
○ 3.3 months
○ -19.5%
● $175,000 - $246,000
○ 1.5 months
○ -25.0%
● $125,000 - $174,000
○ 1.3 months
○ -45.8%
2016 - The Year that Just Keeps Giving
Limited Supply + High Demand =
Increasing prices
It’s a Seller’s Market
Frustrated Buyers
Orange reaches milestone
Chatham & Durham = more price value
Average Sales Price
12 months thru July:
● Orange
○ $401,063
○ +5.2%
● Chatham
○ $393,573
○ +8.1%
● Durham
○ $245,470
○ +8.7%
Average Sales Price per Square Foot
12 months thru July:
● Orange
○ $155
○ +4.7%
● Chatham
○ $143
○ +5.9%
● Durham
○ $117
○ +9.3%
2016 - How has Market Reacted?
Durham & Chatham adding new homes
Orange living off existing homes
New construction helps keep older home
prices more affordable
New Construction Listings
12 months thru July:
● Orange
○ 177
○ +9.6%
● Chatham
○ 588
○ +15.7%
● Durham
○ 600
○ +42.5%
New vs Resale - Price per Square Foot
12 months thru July:
● Orange
○ $160 vs $154
○ -3.7%
● Chatham
○ $151 vs $137
○ -9.2%
● Durham
○ $142 vs $113
○ -20.4%
2016 - The Year that Just Keeps Giving
Sales up
Inventory down
Prices up
Chatham & Durham responding to demand
Orange staying the course
Kyle TouchstonePresident
Chatham Economic Development Corporation
Chatham CountySPACES & PLACES: 2016 REGIONAL GROWTH
AND DEVELOPMENT BRIEFING
Chatham County
• Overview
• Governors Village
• 15-501 Corridor
• Briar Chapel & Veranda
• Chatham Park
• Pittsboro
OverviewSPACES & PLACES: 2016 REGIONAL GROWTH
AND DEVELOPMENT BRIEFING
Who We Are
Kyle TouchstonePresident
Jamie VaughnVice President
Ben TownsendBusiness Services
Manager
Alyssa ByrdCommunications
Specialist
About Us
Chatham Economic Development Corporation (EDC) is the lead economic
development agency for Chatham County. The EDC is a 501(c)3 economic
development non-profit that provides support to businesses throughout the county
and markets Chatham County as the preferred location for emerging growth
companies.
Economic Indicators
• Population: 70,928 (July 2015)
◦ Fastest growing between 2014-2015
• Labor Force: 33,331 (June 2016)
• Jobs: 14,179 (Q1 2016)
• Unemployment: 4.4% (June 2016)
◦ 4th lowest in NC
• Average Weekly Wage: $643.27 (Q1 2016)
◦ State Average: $927.78
Population Growth 2010-2015
13.7%
11.7% 11.5%
5.7%
Wake Chatham Durham Orange
Governors VillageSPACES & PLACES: 2016 REGIONAL GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT BRIEFING
The Commons at Governors Village
The Bold Building
15-501 CorridorSPACES & PLACES: 2016 REGIONAL GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT BRIEFING
ExtraSpace Storage
2015 2016
North Chatham Village
2011
2015 2016
Formerly Cole Park Plaza
North Chatham Village
2015 2016
North Chatham Village
2015 2016
2011
Polks Village
Briar Chapel & VerandaSPACES & PLACES: 2016 REGIONAL GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT BRIEFING
Chatham ParkSPACES & PLACES: 2016 REGIONAL GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT BRIEFING
• 7,100+ acre mixed-use development
• 22,000 residential units (60,000 people)
• 22 million square feet of non-residential development◦ Targeted businesses:
Technology, biotech, clean tech, and medicine
Bellemont Station
2015 2016
Bellemont Pointe
Photo: Town of Pittsboro2015 2016
Chatham County Agriculture and Conference Center
Laurie PaolicelliExecutive Director
Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
Spaces & Places
Orange County Travel and Tourism
August 2016
Name City Rooms Open Date
Holiday Inn Express Hillsborough 83 April 1997
Microtel Inn & Suites by Hillsborough 70 May 2000
Hampton Inn & Suites Carrboro 142 August 2013
Autograph Collection The Siena Hotel Chapel Hill 79 October 1987
University Inn Chapel Hill 132 June 1966
Days Inn Chapel Hill 50 January 1999
Quality Inn Chapel Hill 119 January 1987
Residence Inn Chapel Hill 108 January 2007
Curio Collection Franklin Hotel Chapel Hill 67 January 2007
The Carolina Inn Chapel Hill 185 June 1924
Aloft Hotel Chapel Hill 130 April 2010
Courtyard Chapel Hill 169 September 2004
Sheraton Chapel Hill 168 June 1980
TOTAL: 13 Hotels 1502
358 new rooms (21% increase in supply)
Hyatt Place 110 Rooms Chapel Hill 5 Stories
AC By Marriot 123 Rooms Chapel Hill 4 stories
Hilton Garden Inn 125 Room10,000 sq. feet meeting space
Carrboro 5 stories
Hilto
n G
ard
en Inn C
arr
boro
Open Date: 2nd Quarter 201910,000 sq. feet meeting space150 rooms
AC
By M
arr
iott
214 Rosemary
Open Date:
October 2017
Excavation complete
November 2016
AC by Marriott Rosemary Street
Hyatt
Pla
ce S
outh
ern
Villa
ge
110-room hotel
1,700 square feet
of meeting space
1,680 square foot
third-floor outdoor
function space.
Hillsborough
• Sportsplex: • Sportsplex hosted 553,000 people in 2015.• Consistently ranks in top 5 visitor destinations • Opportunity for overnight accommodations• Near growing Hillsborough assets • SOCCER:• Soccer.com has 5 full size fields that can be
reconfigured for many more smaller fields for younger teams.
• OC may be adding anywhere from 2-4 new fields (two if they are synthetic turf, four if they are not).
•
Why Hotel Investment Here?• A typical hotel investor, when evaluating this market, looks for both
specific property and comp set evidence of hotel performance levels approximating the following:
• Full service hotels:Occupancy: 70% or higherADR: $150 or higherRevPAR: $105 or higher
•Select/focused service hotels:Occupancy: 70% or higherADR: $115 or higher
• RevPAR: $80 or higher
• RevPAR is the key indicator here.
Orange County Tourism Focus
• The entry of these new rooms coupled with slower growth on the demand side will continue to create a relatively uncertain transient market landscape during 2017 as the market continues to absorb the new inventory.
• The focus of the Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau is two-fold:▫ Marketing the assets of our communities
▫ Feasibility study to look at new demand generators
Durham and Wake Counties
• Durham currently has 8,712 hotel rooms--21% growth in supply in 2017 to 9,135 rooms.
• Wake County has 15,500 hotel rooms and will see 11% growth in 2017 to 17,601 rooms.
• Durham:
• November 2014 the 128-room Hilton Garden Inn
at Medical Center opened, followed by 125-room
21c Museum Hotel & 54-room Durham Hotel.
• Starwood opened the 134-room Aloft Hotel at
DPAC and Marriott opened the 147-room all
suites Residence Inn McPherson/Medical Center.
• In addition to these 588 new rooms, the following
properties will add an additional 423 rooms.▫ JB Duke Hotel (January 2017) 198 rooms
▫ Graduate Hotel (Spring 2017) 150 rooms
▫ Unscripted Hotel (April 2017) 75 rooms
Economic Development Panelists
Dwight BassettEconomic Development Officer
Town of Chapel Hill
Steve Brantley Director of Economic
DevelopmentOrange County
Annette StoneEcon. & Community Development
Director Town of Carrboro
Kyle Touchstone President & CEO
Chatham Economic Development Corporation
Upcoming Events
Face TimeSept. 15, 5:30-7:30 p.m.Rizzo Conference Center
Performance Golf Classic Oct. 10, 8:30 a.m.-5 p.m.Chapel Hill Country Club
Economic Outlook BriefingOct. 20, 8-10 a.m.
Sheraton Chapel Hill Hotel
PRIMETIME Business ExpoNov. 10,
UNC Friday Center
www.carolinachamber.org/events
Explore the latest local, state and national trends in our economy. Visit carolinachamber.org/events for more information!
Economic Outlook Briefing7:30-9:30 a.m., Thursday, Oct. 20 at the Sheraton Chapel Hill