specialist retailers: through the alcoholic drinks ... · alcoholic drinks: specialists...

Specialist Retailers: Through the Alcoholic Drinks’ Looking Glass

July 2010

© Euromonitor International

2

Alcoholic Drinks: Specialists

Introduction

A Global Viewpoint

Religious Agenda

Ringfenced Specialists

Free Markets

Future Scenarios

Addendum

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3


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Scope

Introduction

ALCOHOLIC DRINKS

235 billion litres

Wine27 bn litres

Beer184 bn litres

Spirits19 bn litres

RTDs/ High-strength

Premixes4 bn litres

Cider/Perry1.5 bn litres





4

Alcoholic Drinks: SpecialistsIntroduction

Higher-end focus Accounting for a much higher share in value than in volume terms, specialists are

reaffirming their generic association with the higher end of the alcoholic drinks

market.

Supermarkets/hypermarkets

cannibalising sales

The increasingly diversified offerings of supermarkets/hypermarkets and the special

offer tactics they employ make them the greatest danger for specialists' penetration

rates, especially in mature markets where their networks are vast and expanding.

Spirits prove ideal for the

specialist format Specialists‟ eclectic product mix, personalised shopping experience and expert

advice provide them with a clear advantage in the spirits category.

Dark side of ‘religious

agenda’

Beyond the obviously constrictive nature of the religious agenda-based specialist alcoholic

drinks retailing environment and, as a result, enforced focus on a niche audience, this

operational model also leads to thriving contraband and black market sales.

Ringfenced specialists

walking a tightrope While ringfenced specialists have an obvious advantage and, hence, dominate sales

of higher abv varietals, they tend to increasingly lose the battle in lower abv products.

Religious agenda and

ringfenced specialists fail to

curb consumption levels

While the proliferation of restrictive operating models was supposed to be in place in

order to curb alcoholic drinks consumption levels, the effects of such policies are

questionable at best.

Free markets: maturity

breeds decline

The free markets that feature in the top slots in terms of specialist penetration rates

are increasingly facing competition from supermarkets/hypermarkets and discounters

which are challenging their operational model as costly and outdated.

Free markets: minimal

specialist share spells

massive growth potential

The free markets where specialists account for only a minor share of alcoholic drinks

distribution are also the ones that hold the greatest potential. Small grocery retailers tend to

dominate distribution although Westernisation trends and luxury offerings can and eventually

will change the game in specialists‟ favour.

Key Findings




5

Alcoholic Drinks: SpecialistsIntroduction

• The core objective of this report is to examine the current, historic and projected state of the alcoholic drinks

specialists channel in the context of the global food/drink/tobacco specialist channel as well as the global alcoholic

drinks market.

• In addition to providing a global overview of market performance, the report also uses a series of case studies to

outline the different regulatory frameworks that specialists operate in the 80 markets covered by Euromonitor

International.

• For the purposes of this report all 80 Euromonitor markets are divided into three major groups depending on the

underlying legislative/regulatory environment in which alcoholic drinks specialists are operating:

• Religious agenda: Specialist retailers operating under a stringent, religiously-biased regulatory environment that

only allows sales of alcoholic drinks through specialist retailers while explicitly prohibiting sales via alternative

channels.

• Ringfenced specialists: Specialist retailers have a clear advantage as legislative limitations are in place in a

range of different formats:

• provincial or state-based restrictions;

• monopoly of higher % abv varietals/ alcoholic drinks categories and;

• store format limitations.

• Free market: The majority of alcoholic drinks markets around the globe operate under a liberal regulatory

environment. Nevertheless, cultural issues, evolving consumption habits and operational discrepancies determine

the penetration levels of specialist retailers. Within this context, specialist retailer shares range from securing them

a dominant positioning to merely a niche presence.

• Focusing on both retailing and alcoholic drinks the report does not claim to be comprehensive, but rather seeks to

offer high-level insight into key changes in the market at a time of manifest macroeconomic instability and rising

levels of competition among key off-trade distribution channels.

Objectives of Global Briefing




6


Introduction

A Global Viewpoint

Religious Agenda


Free Markets

Future Scenarios

Addendum




7


• Specialists show massive discrepancies between their penetration rates in terms of volume and value. Due to their

primary and historic focus on the higher end of the market, value share is significantly higher than volume share.

• Supermarkets/hypermarkets is the clear winner within distribution channels both in volume and value terms. The

channel is enjoying the combined effects of the wide range of variants on offer, competitive pricing on the back of

implementation of economies of scale and strong equity in a number of mature, mostly Western markets.

• Independent small grocers, much like specialists, also faces major discrepancies in its global volume and value

share although in this case the parameters are reversed. Due to the segment‟s historical focus on the lower end of

the market it far surpasses specialists‟ volume share while being behind it in value share terms. At the same time the

segment holds a major role in emerging markets where supermarket/hypermarket networks are relatively

underdeveloped.

Specialists Focus on Higher End, Supermarkets Dominant

A Global Viewpoint

34.2%

3.9%

7.5%26.5%

19.3%

7.9% 0.9%

Global Volume Distribution 2009

Supermarkets/Hypermarkets

Discounters

Other Small Grocery Retailers

Independent Small Grocers

Alcoholic Drinks Specialists

Other Store based Retailers

Non-store Retailing

35.9%

3.5%

7.8%16.8%

26.5%

8.2%1.3%

Global Value Distribution 2009




8


• Alcoholic drinks specialists retain a significant

foothold but their penetration rates are waning,

accounting for 19% volume share in 2009, down

from 22% in 1999.

• The focused and personalised shopping experience

provided by specialists remains their strong point.

• All major channel shares are relatively steady and

only witness slow and gradual movements over

time.

• On the other hand, the widening range available in

supermarkets/hypermarkets, and to a lesser extent

discounters, as well as the rising availability of

economy offerings helps them eat away at

specialists‟ share.

• While specialists‟ primarily upmarket portfolio

worked to their advantage over the past decade, the

onset of recession and the subsequent renaissance

of thriftiness and inconspicuous consumption is

bound to create additional hurdles moving forward.

• Independent small grocers retain control of a large

segment of sales, primarily focusing on emerging

markets due to the lack of sophisticated specialist

alternatives and underdeveloped

supermarket/hypermarket and discounter networks.

• Non-store retailing is among the big winners,

steadily increasing its share albeit from a very low

base.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

World: Historic Volume Performance of Distribution Channels in Alcoholic Drinks

Non-Store Retailing

Other Store-based Retailers




Discounters

Supermarkets/ Hypermarkets

Specialists’ Share Waning

A Global Viewpoint




9


44.4%

9.9%3.8%

10.8

19.0%

8.1%4.1%

Wine

Supermarkets/Hypermarkets DiscountersOther Small Grocery Retailers Independent Small GrocersAlcoholic Drinks Specialists Other Store-based RetailersNon-store Retailing

• Sales of spirits are limited only to specialists in a number of markets such as the Netherlands, a fact providing a

boost to their global share. Conversely, the availability of wine in alternative channels even in markets with

ringfenced specialist policies, such as South Africa, lowers the specialists‟ share in the segment.

• An eclectic mix offering and personalised customer assistance have historically been the channel‟s strong points.

The relevance of these points to both the spirits and wine markets, especially at the higher end, make specialists the

most suitable channel by nature. On the other hand, the casual character of beer consumption not requiring any

special insight or knowledge of the product, and mostly focusing on pricing, inadvertently limits specialists‟ share in

beer. Could the recent surge in sales of craft/boutique variants change this?

Spirits Prove Ideal for Specialist Format

A Global Viewpoint

32.2%

3.1%

8.4%30.2%

17.6%

8.1% 0.4%

Beer

37.2%

2.3%

4.5%19.1%

29.9%

6.8% 0.4%

Spirits

Distribution by Channel in 2009




10


Regulatory Frameworks

A Global Viewpoint

Yellow: Religious agenda

Purple: Ringfenced specialists

Orange: Free markets

For the purposes of this report all 80 Euromonitor International markets are divided into three major groups

depending on the underlying legislative/regulatory environment in which alcoholic drinks specialists are operating.




11


Introduction

A Global Viewpoint

Religious Agenda


Free Markets

Future Scenarios

Addendum




12


• While religious and cultural constraints invariably impact alcoholic drinks sales and operating environments around

the globe, the UAE, Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are the only markets internationally where sales are

strictly prohibited beyond appointed specialist retailers.

• Additionally, special permits are sometimes required for consumers to purchase alcoholic drinks while punitive

taxation and the semi-secretive nature of the establishments make them difficult to monitor.

• Advertising and marketing campaigns are completely absent.

• These policies lead to side effects, the most significant of which is often a booming black market.

• Marginalising alcohol consumption and restricting access historically tends to only exacerbate substance use and

abuse, while paving the way for illicit trade to flourish.

• Algeria provides a great illustration; approximately 30% of alcohol sales in Algeria were made on the black market in

2009. This high figure can partly be attributed to the forced closure of over 1,000 alcoholic drinks stores.

• It hence becomes clear that the government‟s effort to inhibit the sale of legally produced alcohol products is proving

counterintuitive, hindering its attempt to combat contraband trade.

Religious Agenda

Religious Agenda

UAE

IRAN

SAUDI ARABIA PAKISTAN

ALGERIA




13


• UAE legislation allows only non-Muslims to buy and consume alcoholic drinks while a special liquor licence is also

needed. The annually renewed liquor licence is issued by the Police Departments in all Emirates except Sharjah.

• As for the on-trade, alcohol is available at four- and five-star hotels in their bars and restaurants, in addition to other

standalone horeca outlets.

• Changes in this stringent operating environment are highly unlikely to happen in the short to medium term. With

religion being so closely entwined with civic affairs in the country, any attempt to change the laws is bound to face

severe opposition. Dubai remains the most progressive Emirate and the largest number of specialists are

concentrated there.

• In 2008, the government started clamping down on illicit trade in the northern Emirates, where Muslims used to

purchase alcoholic drinks, although they are not officially allowed to. In 2009, the northern Emirate of Umm al-

Quwain ordered the closure of all clubs in the Emirate.

• Maritime & Mercantile International LLC and African & Eastern NE BVI Ltd are the only two alcoholic drinks

specialists operating in the country, both focusing primarily on the higher end. All off-trade sales must go through one

of their stores otherwise they are illicit. Special tax-free offers and the launch of wine and single malt societies form

part of their attempts to advance the domestic drinking culture.

Case Study: UAE

Religious Agenda

Alcoholic Drinks Specialists in UAE 2007-2009

Outlets Selling space

(‘000 sq m)

Retail value RSP

excl tax (US$ mn)

Sales per sq m

excl tax (US$)

2007 5,168 517 830 1,605

2008 5,812 581 933 1,605

2009 6,161 616 970 1,575

Key point: What the domestic market lacks in terms of volume scope it more than makes up in terms of

value potential. The demonstrated proliferation of higher-end variants paves the way for pushing the

boundaries of premiumisation and luxury products albeit for a limited audience by definition.




14


Introduction

A Global Viewpoint

Religious Agenda


Free Markets

Future Scenarios

Addendum




15


• Sales of alcoholic drinks are operating under strict regulatory frameworks of different formats:

• Provincial or state-based restrictions;

• % abv/category barriers;

• Store layout limitations.

• This kind of regulatory framework provides an obvious advantage for specialists which are hence enjoying relatively

high penetration rates at a total alcoholic drinks level and virtually absolute dominance in the higher abv segments

that tend to be the most highly regulated.

• It is interesting to note that public health issues are primarily used as the most common argument for implementing

such policies. Strictly controlling sales of, mostly higher abv, alcoholic drinks is supposed to minimise alcohol-related

harm, underage drinking and antisocial behaviour. Securing sizable state revenues can also be added to the list.

• As the global debate regarding limiting alcohol abuse and excessive consumption heats up, this retail model will

increasingly come under the microscope.

• On the other hand, there is no conclusive evidence suggesting that such restrictive policies are a groundbreaking

game-changer for drinking habits, significantly limiting consumption levels or safeguarding vulnerable consumer

groups.

Ringfenced Specialists’ Formats


Provincial/state-

based restrictions% abv/category barriers

Store layout

limitations

Canada

USA

India

Netherlands

Finland

UzbekistanNorway

IndonesiaSweden

New Zealand Australia




16


• With the notable exception of Alberta which privatised sales of alcohol, most provinces operate through government-

controlled channels. Each province has a government-owned liquor board which purchases alcohol from

manufacturers and sells it through its own outlets and distribution network to the public and to licensed

establishments.

• Ontario and British Columbia allow Canadian wine manufacturers to have private retail stores, which then sell

directly to the public, and Quebec allows the sale of beer through the grocery and convenience store channels.

Within this context, The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO), with 21% of retail value sales, and Société des

alcools du Québec (SAQ), with 12%, dominate the specialists channel in the country.

• Such a structure represents a major hurdle for smaller producers, whose share nationwide suffers as a

consequence.

• Specialists‟ volume share of total alcoholic drinks fell slightly from 77% in 2004 to 75% in 2009 while the value share

moved in the opposite direction to reach 88% in 2009 up from 86% in 2004.

Provincial Limitations: Canada


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sh

are

of vo

lum

e s

ale

s

Canada Alcoholic Drinks Distribution

Non-store Retailing Alcoholic Drinks Specialists

Small Grocery Retailers Supermarkets/Hypermarkets

Key point: The growing popularity of wine and

increased focus on promoting Canadian VQA wine

might encourage the development of privatised retail

store networks managed by Canadian wineries in the

future.

Leading Specialists 2009 Performance

Outlets Selling

space

(‘000 sq m)

Retail value

RSP excl tax

(US$ mn)

Sales per sq

m excl tax

(US$)

LCBO 610 202 3,486 17,257

SAQ 413 157 1,973 12,566




17


• Finland, Sweden and Norway share similar

regulatory frameworks, structured around a

rigid % abv barrier that is in place in order to

curb excess drinking and moderate

consumption.

• The barrier is 4.7% abv for Finland, 3.5% abv

for Sweden and 4.75% abv for Norway with

state-owned specialists controlling all sales of

alcoholic drinks above this limit:

• Finland: Alko Oy

• Sweden: Systembolaget

• Norway: Vinmonopolet

• Essentially, this translates into state monopolies

enjoying virtually absolute dominance in wine

and spirits while beer, cider and RTDs tend to

focus their sales in supermarkets/hypermarkets

and discounters.

• The Scandinavian specialist monopolies do not

face any competition from other retailers since

there are clear regulatory guidelines separating

the two. While EU legislation has challenged

the legality of such measures in the past, the

legislatory hurdles are now overcome and all

major political parties in these markets are

supportive of this operating environment. In this

context, no radical changes are expected in the

short to medium term.

The Scandinavian Monopolies


Scandinavian Monopolies 2009 Performance

Ou

tlets

Selling

space

(‘000 sq

m)

Retail

value RSP

excl sales

tax (US$

mn)

Sales per

sq m

excl sales

tax (US$)

Systembolaget 412 136 2,748 20,205

Alko Oy 334 115 1,441 12,530

Vinmonopolet 250 39 1,586 40,666

36%

43%

11%

9% 1%

Scandinavian Volume Distribution Breakdown Total Alcoholic Drinks 2009



Discounters


Other Store-based Retailers*

Non-store Retailing*


Note: * negligible




18


• The state-owned company Alko Oy has the

sole right to retail beverages which contain

more than 4.7% abv. The only exceptions are

fermented beverages which contain less than

4.7% abv, and wines sold by Finnish farm

wineries containing up to 13% abv.

• Alko Oy‟s distribution network consisted of

334 off-trade outlets at the end of 2009,

marginally down from 339 at the end of 2007.

The company has focused on self-service

stores and having employees with expertise

in recent years.

• Alko Oy constantly adds new products to its

selection and at the beginning of 2009, the

number was around 2,200.

• The volume share of specialists in alcoholic

drinks fell slightly from 22% in 2004 to 21%

in 2009. Conversely specialists‟ value share

rose by almost one percentage point over the

same period to reach 31% in 2009

reaffirming the focus on premium variants. In

recent years, sales of spirits and wine in Alko

Oy stores showed healthy progress, while

sales of brewery products such as beer, cider

and RTDs declined sharply. Extended

opening hours and discounted prices in

supermarkets were the main reasons for this

development.

The % abv Barrier: Finland


Alko Oy Historic Performance 2007-2009

OutletsSelling

space (‘000

sq m)

Retail

value RSP

excl tax

(US$ mn)

Sales per

sq m excl

tax

(US$)

2007 339 113 1,399 12,380

2008 334 114 1,486 13,035

2009 334 115 1,441 12,530

Key point: Alko Oy is expected to continue losing share to the

advancing supermarket/hypermarket and discounter channels in

beer, cider and RTDs while its primary focus on the higher end of

the market is a double-edged sword in the still challenging

economic environment.

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sh

are

of vo

lum

e s

ale

s

Finland Alcoholic Drinks Distribution

Supermarkets/Hypermarkets Discounters

Small Grocery Retailers Alcoholic Drinks Specialists




19


• All premises selling alcohol in Australia require a liquor licence which is a state (or territory) government

responsibility. As a general rule, laws governing the retail sale of alcohol in Australia dictate that specialist retailers

remain dominant and will continue to be so. The sale of alcohol must be confined to dedicated premises isolated

from areas where the main business is other than the sale of alcohol.

• Alcoholic drinks specialists in Australia are dominated by Metcash Liquor controlling 26% of retail value sales within

the channel, Woolworths with 24% and Coles Group with 12%.

• Metcash Liquor has managed to successfully navigate the recent financial volatility to consistently post gains in its

share over 2004-2009, while even managing to escape contraction over 2009. (For more detail on Metcash please

refer to the global company profile)

• While some first attempts to introduce private label products in the Australian alcoholic drinks market did take place

in 2010, namely by Woolworths, leader Metcash Liquor is yet to enter the segment. The Australian wine glut and the

still challenging socioeconomic environment in the country are expected to favour growth in the underdeveloped

private label segment in the short to medium term.

• The store limitations issue does not apply in the case of non-store retailing which is also relatively non-existent.

Specialist retailers that enter this channel in time will reap the rewards of setting the pace for others to follow.

Store Limitations: Australia


Leading Alcoholic Drinks Specialists 2009 Performance

Outlets Selling

space

(‘000 sq m)

Retail value

RSP excl tax

(US$ mn)

Sales per

sq m excl

tax (US$)

Metcash Liquor 1,578 347 3,579 10,314

Woolworths 1,136 311 3,392 10,906

Coles Group 889 202 1,622 8,030

Key point: Private label

offerings and non-store

retailing options provide

the greatest opportunities

taking into account the

country‟s future economic

challenges and geographic

profile.




20


• What is the impact of stricter legislative environments

on alcoholic drinks consumption? Is it the answer to the

'binge drinking epidemic' faced by a number of mature

Western markets?

• A closer look at the per capita consumption figures of

the markets discussed relatively to the largely liberal

UK operating environment provides some interesting

insights.

• Markets that enforce strict limitations on the distribution

of alcoholic drinks face similar levels of consumption

with unregulated markets and much higher levels of

consumption than the global average.

• The extreme, punitive and marginalised case of

„religious agenda‟ markets is an obvious exception.

Nevertheless, even under these conditions, alcoholic

drinks consumption grew in all these markets.

• Looking at the direction consumption has moved over

the 2004-2009 period, all „ringfenced specialist‟

markets have witnessed either positive increases or flat

growth

• On the other hand, the UK that is considered to be

plagued by a ‟binge drinking epidemic‟ while enjoying a

„free market‟ operating environment saw a major drop

in consumption levels.

• This vividly illustrates the questionable effects of

restrictive operating environments in achieving their

proclaimed role of moderating consumption.

Per Capita Alcoholic Drinks Consumption

Litres per capita

2004

Litres per

capita 2009

World 31.4 34.6

UAE 23.1 30.2

Canada 87.1 92.9

Finland 116.3 118.6

UK 138.4 122.5

Australia 127.5 126.8

USA 96.6 96.9

India 1.6 2.8

Sweden 76.6 80.3

Norway 69.5 76.0

Netherlands 102.5 98.5

New Zealand 110.0 114.4

Uzbekistan 7.2 8.5

Algeria 4.2 4.9

Pakistan 0.1 0.1

Saudi Arabia 2.6 4.0

The ‘Prohibitionist’ Argument and its Failure





21


Introduction

A Global Viewpoint

Religious Agenda


Free Markets

Future Scenarios

Addendum




22


• Outside the markets that fall under the „religious agenda‟ and „ringfenced specialists‟ categories and with the global

average volume share of alcoholic drinks specialists at over 19% of alcoholic drinks sales, a number of countries are

identified as specialist-orientated free markets.

• Markets are identified as specialist-orientated on the back of the historic proliferation of the format in the country,

chained networks that enjoy high levels of brand loyalty and/or a huge number of independent specialists with

personalised ties to local consumers.

• Nevertheless, the increasingly competitive operating environment inadvertently puts pressure on smaller, local and

independent specialists who are becoming marginalised and are considered outdated.

• Furthermore, high specialist penetration rates tend to translate into relatively saturated positioning for the channel

and waning overall share.

• Supermarkets/hypermarkets and discounters tend to be the main channels cannibalising specialists‟ share on the

back of economies of scale as well as through steady expansion and diversification of their product offering.

Identifying the Top Performers

Free Markets

2009 Alcoholic Drinks Sales

Through Specialists, by Country

Cameroon 75.9%

Venezuela 63.8%

Turkey 49.9%

Bosnia-Herzegovina 36.1%

Bolivia 36.1%

Ecuador 34.1%

Ireland 33.9%

Chile 33.4%

Mexico 30.1%

Greece 26.6%

Japan 24.5%

Germany 20.7%

Macedonia 20.2%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Alcoholic Drinks Specialists vs. All Other Channels % Y-o-Y Growth

Cameroon Specialists Cameroon All Other Channels

Chile Specialists Chile All Other Channels




23


• In 2009, specialists represented the leading

distribution channel, followed by supermarkets/

hypermarkets, the share of which is increasing,

cannibalising small grocery retailers‟ penetration

rates. At the same time, the number of

supermarket/hypermarket outlets and shelf space

allocated to alcoholic drinks increased

considerably, a fact leading to an increase in the

penetration rate. Specialist retailers are expected

to experience a further loss in share over the short

to medium term.

• Selling alcoholic products requires a licence from

the government and the infamous red tape issues

in the country make the process slow and

troublesome.

• Specialist alcoholic drinks retailers in Turkey is a

very fragmented channel, mainly comprised of

small Tekel corner outlets. Prior to the privatisation

of Tekel in 2004, these served as licensed

franchisees selling alcoholic drinks and tobacco

products. After privatisation, the name was not

changed, but these outlets were franchised by Mey.

• Tekel specialists mainly focus on domestic

products rather than imported brands as a way of

differentiating from grocery retailers. Largely owned

by Mey, the biggest producer of raki (aniseed-

flavoured spirits) in Turkey, Tekel shops are ideal

for focusing on such products.

Case Study: Turkey

Free Markets

Alcoholic Drinks Specialists 2009 Performance

Outlets Selling

space

(‘000

sqm)

Retail value

RSP excl

tax

(US$ mn)

Sales per

sq m

excl tax

(US$)

2007 104,854 4,140 10,989 2,654

2008 106,636 4,231 11,088 2,620

2009 107,809 4,312 10,755 2,494

Key point: Consolidation is unavoidable for the fragmented

specialists channel in order to compete with the rising power

of supermarkets/ hypermarkets and discounters. Focusing on

domestically produced variants, such as raki and wine, will

provide additional affordability cachet.

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sh

are

of vo

lum

e s

ale

s

Turkey Alcoholic Drinks Distribution


Small Grocery Retailers

Discounters





24


• The abolition of the Groceries Order in

2006 allowing below-cost selling resulted in

supermarkets/hypermarkets using alcoholic

drinks as loss leaders, while the pricing

levels proved to be impossible for specialist

retailers to compete with, contributing to a

fall in their share. Specialists‟ volume share

declined steadily from 38% in 2004 to 34%

in 2009.

• The fees associated with procuring licences

to sell all alcoholic drinks are in the vicinity

of EUR180,000 while licences to sell wine

cost only EUR250 per year.

• Among the leading specialist alcoholic

drinks retailers, Next Door is a franchise

operation managed by the Vintners

Federation of Ireland (VFI), a national lobby

group composed of 5,500 publicans. The

concept of the Next Door brand is the

expansion of an off-trade specialist trading

“next door” to an on-trade public house.

Next Door‟s head office offers operators

market research prior to opening, shop fits,

advice on suitable stock for local demand

and information on pricing and margins.

• However, the specialists channel is still

very fragmented and dominated by huge

numbers of independents.

Case Study: Ireland

Free Markets


Outlets Selling

space (‘000

sq m)

Retail

value RSP

excl tax

(US$ mn)

Sales per

sq m excl

tax (US$)

Carry Out 51 4 102 25,500

Next Door 49 2 81 40,500

Key point: The specialists channel‟s highly fragmented nature and

the country‟s precarious fiscal condition create an explosively

negative mix. The comparable affordability of wine licensing makes

wine an ideal focus area for specialists to compete with the

supermarket/hypermarket giants.

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sh

are

of vo

lum

e s

ale

s

Ireland Alcoholic Drinks Distribution

Non-store Retailing

Other Store-based RetailersAlcoholic Drinks SpecialistsSmall Grocery Retailers

Discounters





25


• In spite of large grocery chains such as Wal-Mart

de México and Organización Soriana being in a

position to negotiate better discounted prices than

small independent alcoholic drinks specialists,

Mexicans are returning to impulse purchases and

special promotions offered by the specialists

channel.

• Specialists is the leading distribution channel for

alcoholic drinks in Mexico. There are several large

chains around the country such as La Divina and

El Globo but there are also thousands of

independent ones called vinaterías where most

sales take place. These are small, usually family-

owned, businesses where the owners typically

know their customers personally, thus offering a

more tailored approach. However, small

independent specialists may yet be negatively

affected over the forecast period although at the

moment they hold a stronger presence in small

cities and rural areas.

• In beer, specialists are mostly represented by

depósitos de cerveza, stores only specializing in

the sale of beer.

• Independent small grocers rank second and are

very similar to vinaterías while also offering

packaged food. C-stores have increased their

participation driven mainly by advancing Oxxo

stores that successfully sell beer.

Case Study: Mexico

Free Markets


Outlets Selling

space

(‘000 sq m)

Retail

value RSP

excl tax

(US$ mn)

Sales

per sq m

excl tax

(US$)

El Globo 285 26 126 4,846

La Divina 182 31 70 2,258

Key point: The impulsive nature of Mexican consumers and the

personalised shopping experience offered by specialists secure

the resilience of the channel. However, increasing competition in

urban areas might enforce consolidation initiatives.

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sh

are

of

vo

lum

e s

ale

s

Mexico Alcoholic Drinks Distribution

Non-store Retailing







26


• At the other end of the spectrum, the markets that show the lowest penetration rates for food/drink/tobacco

specialists globally can also provide some, cautionary albeit optimistic, insights going forward.

• The proliferation of emerging nations in the list of countries that feature on the list is striking; relatively

underdeveloped infrastructure, very strong, if outdated, small grocery retailer networks and solid share growth for the

advancing supermarkets/hypermarkets channel put specialists on the sidelines.

• On the other hand, the embryonic nature of specialists in those markets provides massive scope for growth

especially if they succeed in appealing to the burgeoning, upwardly-mobile classes of young urbanites.

• Widening levels of product diversification and utilising the channel‟s generic focus on the higher end will be the key

drivers for specialists moving forward.

• Furthermore, underlining the personalised shopping experience to promote domestically-produced, inexpensive

alcoholic drinks varietals would provide a foothold in markets that still face economic hurdles, while assisting

domestic alcoholic drinks industries.

Specialists as a Niche

Free Markets

Alcoholic Drinks Sales

Through Specialists

Belgium 3.7%

Austria 3.3%

Guatemala 3.1%

Russia 2.9%

Romania 2.7%

China 2.5%

Uruguay 2.4%

Argentina 2.3%

Slovenia 2.3%

Lithuania 2.3%

Bulgaria 2.3%

Latvia 2.3%

Kazakhstan 2.2%

South Korea 2.1%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Super/Hypermarkets vs All Other Channels % Y-o-Y Growth China Supermarkets/

Hypermarkets

China All Other Channels

Kazakhstan Supermarkets/ HypermarketsKazakhstan All Other Channels

Bulgaria Supermarkets/ Hypermarkets

Bulgaria All Other Channels




27


• Specialists, unlike in other countries, steadily

increased their share from 2% of off-trade value

sales in 2004 to almost 4% in 2009, regardless

of the recession. In off-trade volume terms, the

channel proved slightly less dynamic, growing

from 2% in 2004 to almost 3% in 2009, with its

focus being primarily on higher-priced products.

The channel‟s focus on the higher end has

assisted in navigating the financial volatility as its

consumers proved to be less affected by the

downturn. Since opportunities in the premium

segment are going to shape the Russian market

moving forward, specialists will continue

expanding their share.

• Alcoholic drinks specialist retailers are mainly

developed by major alcohol distributors and

importers. Russia Aroma TD and Norman-Vivat

are also large alcohol distributors. Huge

numbers of independents dominate the channel.

• Aromatniy Mir quickly earned a reputation as a

provider of quality alcoholic drinks to the

Russian market. Since 2004, the company has

focused on developing products under its own

trademark. Norman differs from its main rival

Aromatniy Mir due to its focus on the growing

number of middle-income consumers. In

addition, most of its shops are situated in the

suburbs of cities.

Case Study: Russia

Free Markets


Ou

tlets

Selling

space (‘000

sq m)

Retail value

RSP excl

tax

(US$ mn)

Sales

per sq m

excl tax

(US$)

Aromatniy Mir 165 26 73 2,808

Norman 128 17 134 7,882

Key point: With the country‟s macroeconomic indicators

remaining buoyant and a steadily rising interest in Western

alcoholic drinks variants, specialists‟ upmarket targeting secures

a rise in the channel‟s share in the medium to long term and as

the currently challenging operating environment starts improving.

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sh

are

of vo

lum

e s

ale

s

Russia Alcoholic Drinks Distribution

Other Store-based Retailers



Discounters





28


• Small groceries located near residential

areas account for the majority of alcoholic

drinks sales in China on the back of the

convenience factor. However, the

distribution volume share of

supermarkets/hypermarkets continues to

increase in line with the expansion of such

outlets throughout the country and rising

levels of car ownership.

• The number of specialist retailers operating

in China is small but will increase over the

forecast period, with the volume share of

leading chains expected to rise. Specialist

retailers in China mainly distribute mid- and

high-end spirits and wine brands.

• Wine importers typically choose to operate

their own specialist outlets due to the fact

that they have low brand awareness and are

consequently unable to distribute nationally

via supermarkets/hypermarkets which

charge high shelf display fees. However,

most wine specialist retailers are

independent players and operate only a

limited number of outlets.

• A growing number of leading wine and

spirits brands are likely to establish their

own specialist outlets over the coming years

in order to sell their premium brands.

Case Study: China

Free Markets


Outlets Selling

space (‘000

sq m)

Retail

value RSP

excl tax

(US$ mn)

Sales per

sq m excl

tax (US$)

Holiland 950 60 168 2,800

Christine 650 27 152 5,630

Key point: The rapid ascent of the middle classes and the

formulation of a burgeoning segment of nouveau-riche are the

primary drivers of specialists‟ rising share. Premium and luxury wine

varietals will continue spearheading the trend.

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sh

are

of vo

lum

e s

ale

s

China Alcoholic Drinks Distribution







29


• Specialists are facing mounting competition from the advancing supermarket/hypermarket and discounter channels

in the vast majority of markets where they enjoy a dominant role.

• Competitive prices based on economies of scale, steadily expanding portfolios, revamped alcoholic drinks aisles

and, in some cases, below-cost sales to increase overall footfall, are the main points used by these alternative

channels to dethrone specialists from their dominating positions.

• Furthermore, specialists‟ high penetration rates are sometimes covertly assisted by legislation which might indirectly

support their share in free markets (e.g. difficult to acquire or very expensive licensing fees). That tends to create a

feeling of complacency that leads to lack of innovative activities, paving the way for supermarkets/hypermarkets and

discounters to focus their criticism on the outdated operational model of specialists.

• On the other hand, the markets where specialists have failed to yet capture a big share of distribution hold the

greatest potential since this operating model remains untarnished by maturity concerns and an outdated image.

• Within these markets, specialists tend to focus on niche, affluent audiences and are expanding their penetration

rates on the back of Westernisation (since in many cases they refer to emerging markets), and a more personalised

shopping experience.

Specialists ascend Specialists descend

• Minimum distribution share translates into a

fresh, progressive, modern positioning.

• Specialists are hence expected to continue

posting gains moving in parallel with the

advancing alcoholic drinks consumption

culture in their respective markets as well as

the increasingly more sophisticated

distribution environment.

• High distribution share translates into an

outdated, conservative positioning.

• Specialists are hence expected to continue

losing share as long as they fail to adapt to

the evolving operating environment, diversify

their offerings and expand their range of

products to include mid and lower-end

varietals.

Maturity Breeds Declines, Niche Share Spells Future Gains

Free Markets




30


Introduction

A Global Viewpoint

Religious Agenda


Free Markets

Future Scenarios

Addendum




31


• Food/drink/tobacco specialists have been fighting an uphill battle against stagnation for some time and this will also

be the case moving forward as they are expected to post flat constant value CAGR over 2009-2014.

• Conversely, non-store retailing will continue posting the stronger gains on the back of the skyrocketing Internet

segment. Jumping on the Internet retailing bandwagon might hence prove to be the best opportunity for specialist

retailers to bridge the gap in performance, catapulting the channel in the forefront of developments.

• Hypermarkets/supermarkets and discounters will continue posting strong and steady gains leveraging on competitive

pricing and an ever-expanding and diversifying product mix.

The Retailing Perspective: Specialists Facing Stagnation

Future Scenarios

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

% y

-o-y

gro

wth

Retailing: Forecast Period Retail Value RSP (Excl Tax Projections in Fixed US$)

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters


Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists

Other Grocery Retailers

Non-grocery Retailers

Non-store Retailing




32


• Despite the expected lower volume CAGR compared to

2004-2009, pockets of stronger performance will assist in

lifting 2009‟s gloominess over 2009-2014.

• Cider/perry will be the flagship among all categories with

sales buoyed by advertising investment, new launches and

efforts to expand its audience beyond its small number of

core markets. Nevertheless, the category's relatively narrow

geographical scope will inevitably limit its full potential in the

short and medium term.

• Beer will witness solid growth, with economy and premium

offerings outperforming standard variants as polarisation

impacts all categories.

• Wine will primarily advance on the back of simplified, lower-

end, casual offerings with the New World rewriting the

rulebook and Old World countries eventually having to follow,

at the very least by replicating their successful marketing

approach.

• Conversely, the premium segment of the wine market,

specialists‟ generic focus, will continue seeing rising sales

while also being used as an investment vehicle

• Spirits will maintain a relatively solid growth trajectory on the

back of the meteoric 9% volume CAGR for other whisk(e)y, a

strong performance by rum as well as brandy and Cognac‟s

momentum on the back of its rising popularity in China.

• Polarisation will increasingly define the global spirits market

and underlining their focus on exclusive, premium offerings

will become specialists‟ key weapon of choice against

supermarkets and discounters.

Alcoholic Drinks: The Light at the End of the Tunnel

Future Scenarios

Alcoholic drinks

Beer

Wine

Spirits

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 2 4 6

To

tal V

olu

me

% C

AG

R 2

00

9-2

01

4

Total Value % CAGR 2009-2014

Forecast Global Alcoholic Drinks Performance by Category

RTDs/high-strength

premixes

Bubble size:2009 total volume

Cider/perry




33


Strengths

Opportunities

Weaknesses

Threats

• With polarisation

advancing in mature

markets and

premiumisation still

relevant in emerging ones,

specialists‟ focus on the

higher end still has

dividends to pay.

On the upside of

polarisation

• The relatively strong

performance expected for

spirits and, to a lesser

extent wine, can

potentially translate into

gains for specialists over

the forecast period.

High spirits

• Legislative as well as

operational factors have

sidelined specialists from

the lucrative beer and

cider categories which are

expected to spearhead

gains in alcoholic drinks

over 2009-2014.

Beer and cider: lost

opportunities

• Economies of scale and

the huge negotiating

power of the big

supermarket/hypermarket

chains and discounters

will put mounting pressure

on specialists‟ penetration

rates and margins.

Fierce competition

• While the channel‟s generic

focus on the higher end will

continue securing value

growth, diversifying

offerings to include

economy domestic

specialities can provide a

foothold in still volatile

markets.

Domestic specialities

• Criticisms of specialists‟

outdated business model

and maturity concerns

could potentially be

overcome through the use

of Internet retailing.

Internet retailing

• Although a highly unlikely

scenario, legislative

amendments liberalising

the „ringfenced specialist‟

model would be a huge

blow for the channel in the

respective market.

Legislative amendments

• While the Great

Recession is supposed to

be over, any potential

return to the previous

levels of financial volatility

will take a huge toll on

specialists‟ share due to

their generic association

with the higher end.

Economic volatility

Navigating Against the Currents

Future Scenarios




34


• Governments and health bodies from Russia to the UK are streamlining their offensive against the alcoholic drinks

industry. Tax hikes, minimum pricing and more stringent drink-driving legislation will erect additional barriers for

manufacturers while creating further hurdles for specialists.

• At the World Health Assembly (WHA), the 193 nations of the World Health Organization (WHO) reached

consensus for the first time on a resolution to confront the harmful use of alcohol, and along with it adopted WHO‟s

first global alcohol harm strategy.

• The strategy covers 10 policy areas: leadership, awareness and commitment; health services‟ responses; community

action; drink-driving policies; availability of alcohol; marketing of alcoholic beverages; pricing policies; reducing the

negative consequences of drinking and alcohol intoxication; reducing the public health impact of illicit alcohol and

informally-produced alcohol; and monitoring and surveillance. Minimum pricing and illegal production featured on the

agenda.

• UK: The „tax escalator policy‟ already dilutes margins for the industry, calls for even more stringent measures to

combat “binge Britain” are already in place. Stricter drink-driving legislation.

• Scotland: From minimum pricing to below-cost selling. Following widespread criticism over the introduction of a

blanket minimum-pricing legislation for alcoholic drinks and questioning the legality and efficacy of such

measures, the Scottish government is now considering banning the sale of products cheaper than the cost of

duty plus VAT.

• New Zealand: A report commissioned by the New Zealand government has called for strong tax rises on

alcoholic drinks, as well as tougher advertising restrictions and a higher minimum drinking age in the country. As

well as higher taxes, the report calls for the legal drinking age to be raised from 18 to 20 years, shorter selling

hours for retailers and tougher regulation on advertising and sponsorship. It also calls on government to "fully

investigate a minimum pricing regime".

• Russia: The government has already tripled duty tax on beer and introduced a minimum price of RUB89

(US$3) per 0.5 litres on vodka.

• Greece: The Greek government has announced increases in taxes on alcohol as it seeks to counter the

country's debt crisis while at the same time claiming that the changes are “to the benefit of public health”.

2010: A Legislative Offensive

Future Scenarios




35


Diversification:

While specialists’ demonstrated focus on the higher end of the market still holds potential, diversifying offerings to include mid-and lower-tier varietals will secure greater resilience.

Expanding portfolios to include alcoholic drinks beyond the scope of spirits and wine will also become a key issue moving forward.

Consolidation:

The only way for the scores of independent specialists to compete with the advancing supermarket/hypermarket and discounter channels is through forming strategic alliances or mergers and acquisitions, especially in markets where the channel is highly fragmented.

Revamping:

Specialists’ generic association with the higher end does not necessarily have to translate into an outdated positioning and relevance to middle-aged, highly sophisticated consumption. Appealing to millennials through responding to their demonstrated interest in expanding their knowledge and utilising highly relevant Internet retailing can potentially turn the tide for specialists’ waning penetration rates.

Recommendations: Against the Current

Future Scenarios




36


Introduction

A Global Viewpoint

Religious Agenda


Free Markets

Future Scenarios

Addendum




37


• MEA

• Algeria

• Iran

• Saudi Arabia

• UAE

• Asia Pacific

• Pakistan

Religious agenda Free markets

• Asia Pacific

• India

• Indonesia

• Uzbekistan

• Western Europe

• Netherlands

• Norway

• Finland

• Sweden

• North America

• Canada

• USA

• Australasia

• Australia

• New Zealand

Ringfenced specialists

Regulatory Frameworks - Country Detail

Addendum

• MEA

Cameroon, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Morocco,

Nigeria, South Africa, Tunisia

• Eastern Europe

Belarus, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech

Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia,

Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania,

Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Ukraine

• Western Europe

Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany,

Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain,

Switzerland, Turkey, UK

• Asia Pacific

Azerbaijan, China, Hong Kong, Japan,

Kazakhstan, South Korea, Malaysia,

Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan,

Vietnam

• Latin America

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,

Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador,

Guatemala, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela




38


• All values expressed in this report are in US dollar terms, using a fixed exchange rate (2009).

• 2009 figures are based on part-year estimates.

• All forecast data are expressed in constant terms; inflationary effects are discounted. Conversely, all historical data

are expressed in current terms; inflationary effects are taken into account.

Alcoholic Drinks coverage:

• Beer. An alcoholic drink usually brewed from malt, sugar, hops and water and fermented with yeast. Some beers are

made by fermenting a cereal, especially barley, and therefore not flavoured by hops. Alcohol content for beer varies

from anything up to and over 14% abv (alcohol by volume), although 3.5-5% is most common. Beer is often loosely

classified by the nature in which it is made: top fermented (i.e. ales, bitters, wheat beers, stouts, porters, etc.); and

bottom fermented (i.e. all lagers). Note: pre-mixed beers such as beer/lemonade, beer/whisky or beer/tequila

mixtures are excluded from the data. These are included in flavoured alcoholic beverages (FABs). This is the

aggregation of lager, dark beer, stout and LABs/NABs.

• Wine. This is the aggregation of still and sparkling light grape wines, fortified wine and vermouth and non-grape

wine. In terms of alcohol content, light wine usually falls into the 8-14% abv bracket while fortified wine ranges from

14-23% abv. For this study low and non-alcoholic wine is also included in the data (attributed to each sector as

appropriate).

• Spirits. This is the aggregation of whisk(e)y, brandy and Cognac, white spirits, rum, tequila, liqueurs and other

spirits.

• Cider/Perry. Cider is made from fermented apple juice, while perry is made from fermented pear juice. Both artisanal

and industrial cider/perry are included.

• RTDs/High-strength Premixes. This the combination of RTD and high-strength premixes. RTD stands for ready-to-

drink. Other terms which may used for these products are FABs, alcopops and premixes. The RTDs sector is the

aggregation of malt-, wine-, spirit- and other types of premixed drinks. These drinks usually have an alcohol content

of around 5% but this can reach as high as 10% abv. Premixes containing a high percentage of alcohol of around

15%+ combined with juice or any other soft drink are included here. These are usually marketed as a product to be

drunk neat with ice, to mix with an energy drink and/or to make cocktails.

Alcoholic Drinks Definitions

Defintions




39


• Supermarkets/Hypermarkets – Supermarkets are retail outlets selling groceries with a selling space of between

400 and 2,500 square metres, selling at least 70% groceries. Includes chained and independent outlets.

Hypermarkets are retail outlets selling groceries and non-food merchandise with a selling space of over 2,500 square

metres. Frequently located on out-of-town sites or as the anchor store in a shopping centre.

• Discounters – Discounters comprises hard discounters and soft discounters. Hard discounter: first introduced by

Aldi in Germany, and also known as limited-line discounters. Stores are typically 300-900 square metres and stock

fewer than 1,000 product lines, largely in packaged groceries. Goods are mainly private label or budget brands.

• Small Grocery Retailers – Small grocery retailers are chained or independent retail outlets with a selling space of

under 400 square metres and with a primary focus on selling food/beverages/tobacco and other groceries. Small

grocery retailers is the aggregation of convenience stores, independent small grocers and forecourt retailers.

• Convenience Stores – Convenience stores are chained retail outlets with a selling space of under 400 square

metres and with a primary focus on selling food/beverages/tobacco and other groceries.

• Independent Small Grocers – Retail outlets selling a wide range of predominantly grocery products. Owned by an

entrepreneur owning and operating one or more (but fewer than 10) retail outlets. Mainly family concerns. Food

usually accounts for at least 50% of total retail sales value.

• Forecourt Retailers – Forecourt retailers is an aggregation of chained forecourt retailers and independent forecourt

retailers. Forecourt retailers are chained or independent retail outlets with a selling space of under 400 square

metres and with a primary focus on selling food/beverages/tobacco and other groceries and located on a

petrol/gas/service station forecourt. Forecourt retailers have some, or all, of the following characteristics: extended

opening hours; located in residential neighbourhoods; and range includes two or more of the following product

categories: audio-visual goods (for sale or rent), take-away food (ready-made sandwiches, rolls or hot food),

newspapers or magazines, cut flowers or pot plants, and greetings cards, etc.

.

Channel Definitions I

Definitions




40


• Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists – Food/drink/tobacco specialists includes food and non-alcoholic drinks

specialists, alcoholic drinks stores and tobacconists. Food and non-alcoholic drinks specialists are chained or

independent retail outlets typically with a selling space of under 400 square metres and with a primary focus on

selling mainly one category of food or non-alcoholic drinks. Alcoholic drinks stores are retail outlets with a primary

focus on selling beer/wine/spirits/other alcoholic beverages.

• For the purposes of this briefing the term „alcoholic drinks specialists‟ refers to food/drink/tobacco specialists due to

the nature of the analysis and the focus on leading alcoholic drinks players within the food/drink/tobacco specialists

segment.

• Other Grocery Retailers – Other grocery retailers are chained or independent retail outlets (typically with a selling

space of under 400 square metres), kiosks, market stalls or street vendors with a primary focus on selling food,

beverages and tobacco. Other grocery retailers also includes health food stores,

confectioners/newsagents/tobacconists (CTNs), food and drink souvenir stores and regional speciality stores. Wine

sales from vineyards are included here.

• Non-grocery Retailers – Non-grocery retailers are retailers whose primary focus is selling merchandise which is not

food/drink/tobacco from retail outlets, kiosks or market stalls.

• Non-store Retailing – Non-store retailing is the sale of new and used goods to the general public for personal or

household consumption from locations other than retail outlets, kiosks or market stalls. Non-store retailing is the

aggregation of vending, homeshopping, Internet retailing and direct selling.

Channel Definitions II

Definitions




41


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