stage 3 the final push. learning objectives examine the 2008 election in the broader context of...
TRANSCRIPT
Stage 3
The Final Push
Learning Objectives
• Examine the 2008 Election in the broader context of American electoral history
• Discuss the strategy of presidential campaigns
McCain’s Brief Moment
The One Ad• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_vVN0UwUyo
• People began Questioning Obama’s Ability to lead and his experience
• The Palin Rollout– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psyo4JDbJJ4
Obama Advantages
• Financial resources
• The Primary
• The Map
9/14 Global Financial Crisis
• Largest economic Crisis in 70 years
• Too many subprime mortgages are issued, and sold as investments
• The Dow Tumbles, confidence in markets crumbles
Fallout of 9/14
• Lehman Brothers
• Declares Chapter 11
• Holds too many mortgaged backed securities
Fallout of 9/14
• Merrill Lynch collapses
Fallout of 9/14
• American International Group (AIG)
• Gets an emergency loan of 5 million dollars
Policy Reaction
• President Bush offers upwards of 700 Billion bailout plan
• Congress Must Pass it
• McCain Suspends the campaign
Mistakes and Damage Control
• McCain makes the defining statement of the election– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSBs0tBVrHk
• McCain on Letterman– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ARI1fgHEBc
• Obama stays above the fray
Political Fallout from 9/14
• McCain changes strategy
• Obama benefits
Presidential Debates
• History
• General Strategies
Presidential Debates
• Who it Helps
• Who it Hurts
Presidential Debates
• Who Wins (whomever is leading in the polls)
• Does it matter
Presidential Debates
• Do Not Make Mistakes• What don't you want to do?
– The 1960 Debate– Look ancient– Seem heartless– You are no Jack Kennedy– Eastern Europe is Free And again– The Global Test– Adm. James Stockdale
• Blind , Deaf, Dumb
The Phillies Win Oct 30th
• First World Series since 1980
• Second in my lifetime
• Second in the history of the Franchise
The First Debate
• Would McCain Show up?– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKeISsYKROI
• Podium Format• Obama Strategy
• No Game Changer
The Vice Presidential Debate
• Most heavily watched debate
• Not very exciting
• Not a game changer
The Second Presidential Debate
• The Nixon-Kennedy Myth
• Town Hall format
• No game changer
The Third Debate
• No Game Changer either
• The Candidates leading in the polls reflected the winners of each debates
The End Game
• Obama Leads McCain by 6-7 points
• No Good news for the Republican Party
• Two Joes make it interesting– Plumber- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7wlDtfs1AM
– Biden- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpiNfuG8YY8
The End Game
• McCain pulls out of Michigan
• McCain has to go negative
• Obama stays on message
Did the Campaign Matter?• It was the Democrat’s Campaign to lose
• Obama used overwhelming financial resources
• Obama played a very safe campaign, which he needed to do. (McCain=Bush, Change)