Stan Caris’s2015 Kentucky DerbyChecklist and Selections

This is one of the most wide open Derbies because a solid case can be made for at least 8 contenders.

With so many runners coming off strong winning efforts it seems likely that the winner will come from off the pace.

American Pharoah our checklist lead-er and likely Derby favorite carries the powerful Raise A Native sire line. Like so many others in this Derby he will be tested early by several other formidable opponents.

Dortmund a 17 hands monster just missed qualifying on my final fraction time. He is undefeated in 6 career starts and has dominant classicity, a dosage pro-file that usually spells stamina.

Frosted who is fourth choice on my checklist ran a fast final 3 furlongs in the Wood Memorial. He could definitely benefit from a hot pace.

Handicapping The Kentucky Derbyby Stanley Caris

Mubtaahij won his last two races at 1 3/16 at Meydan and would have qualified on my final fraction angle if the UAE Derby was considered a big 5 prep race. He car-ries the powerful Raise A Native sire line.

Upstart is a very consistent runner that just misses qualifying on several indica-tors. He carries Buckpasser in the X pass-ing position and could be a good longshot.

Firing Line is another consistent horse that just misses qualifying on several in-dicators. He won the Sunland Derby by 14 ½ lengths.

Carpe Diem who is third choice on my checklist has an unfavorable post posi-tion. However, his style of running could benefit him if the pace is rapid.

Danzig Moon received 5 points on my checklist but just misses qualifying on my conduit mare indicator. His conduit mare, Miss Fiora, is the same conduit mare car-

ried by the great Native Dancer and the outstanding broodmare, Grey Flight. He closed well to be second in the Blue Grass.

Longshot Recommendations: Danzig Moon, Firing Line, Frosted, and Upstart

Exacta Recommendations: An exacta box of Dortmund, Frosted, Mubtaahij, Upstart, Firing Line and Danzig Moon.

Trifecta Recommendations: A trifecta key with Frosted to win and the other 7 horses above in the place and show posi-tions.

A trifecta key with Upstart to win and the other 7 horses above in the place and show positions.

Sloppy or Muddy Track: If the track is sloppy or muddy give extra consideration to Upstart and American Pharoah.

Derby Checklist 2015 Book 37 4/5 RF 98 1,23b SR 92 BK CM Total Conduit

American Pharoah 2 4 2 0 3 2 0 0 13

Tencendur 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 4 11 Torpenhow

Carpe Diem 2 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 9

Frosted 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 7

Far Right 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 Countess Wanda

Danzig Moon 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 5

Dortmund 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 5

El Kabeir 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 4

Materiality 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3

Firing Line 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3

Bolo 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 Broom Flower

International Star 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Upstart 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mubtaahij 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Itsaknockout 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

War Story 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cherokee Rose

Stanford 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Altoviscar

Mr. Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Frizette

Ocho Ocho Ocho 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Keen Ice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

AE Frammento 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 6

AE Tale of Verve 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2

The Truth or Else 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 Doxa

Metaboss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Macaroon

Derby Indicator #1 (37.8) Give 2 points to all horses that fit the fol-lowing rules: 1) It must achieve a

final 3/8 of a mile in 37 4/5 or less or a final 1/8 of a mile in 12 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep race 2) It must not have finished worse than 4th in its last start before the Derby 3) the runner must not have been worse than 4th in the race that qualifies it on final fraction times above 4)The run-ner must not have lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a big 5 prep race unless it shows no loss of ground in another big 5 prep race 5)Races over polytracks were omitted from this study (The Big 5 Preps are the Santa Anita Derby, the Florida Derby, the Ar-kansas Derby and the Wood Memorial). Note the Blue Grass does not count any more because it is a polytrack surface. However, prior to 2007 the Blue Grass was run over a dirt surface and was used as a big 5 prep race. So actually there are only

Codes for the 8 Indicators in My Newly Revised Derby Checklist4 big preps that are presently used in my checklist.

Derby Indicator #2 (RF) Give 4 points to all horses that carry the Raise A Native sire line and fit all the rules found in in-dicator #1.

Derby Indicator #3 (98) Give 2 points to all horses that achieve a 98 Beyer figure at 9 furlongs at age 3 and also fit all the rules of Indicator #1.

Derby Indicator #4 (23b) Give 2 points to all horses that are members of family 1 or 23b.

Derby Indicator #5 (SR) Give 3 points to all horses who 1) were first or second in a big 5 prep race provided that they also achieve a Daily Racing Form speed rating plus track variant of 103 or higher in that big 5 prep. 2) The runner must show no loss of ground from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a big 5 prep race unless it shows no loss of ground in another big 5 prep. 3) Races over polytracks were not

considered party of this study.Derby Indicator #6 (92) Give 2 points

to all horses who won a race at a mile or more at age 2 and also achieved a Beyer figure of 92 or higher at age 2.

Derby Indicator #7 (BK) Give 3 points to all runners who carry Buckpasser in the X passing position and also qualify on all the rules of Derby Indicator #1.

Derby Indicator #8 (CM) Give 4 points to all runners who carry one of our special conduit mares in tail- female and also qualify on all the rules of Derby In-dicator #1.

Note: On the far right of the checklist I listed the names of strong conduit mares in bold face. Note that some of the entries carry a strong conduit mare in tail-female but do not fit all the rules found in Derby Indicator #1. Therefore these runners do not qualify on Derby Indicator #8.