stanford gmf that never was...the grand strategy that never was the global maritime fulcrum in the...
TRANSCRIPT
THE GRAND STRATEGY THAT NEVER WAST H E G L O B A L MA R I T I ME F U L C RU M I N T H E S E C O ND J O KOW I A D MI N I S T R AT I O N
Southeast Asia Forum, Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Stanford University, November 5, 2019
Evan A. LaksmanaSenior researcher, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta, Indonesia
https://www.evanlaksmana.com | @EvanLaksmana | [email protected]
OUTLINE
• The Global Maritime Fulcrum and Sea Policy
• Failure to launch?
• Jokowi’s re-election and second term
• Foreign and defense policies
• Broader implications
• Formulated as a campaign platform, not a years-in-the-making strategy document
• Formally launched at the beginning of the admin
• Have both internal (domestic) and external (foreign) elements
• Tailored for Indonesia as as archipelagic state
• Needs the bureaucratic push and a central hub to manage and implement
GRAND STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK
IMPLEMENTING DOCUMENT
• Inter-agency process
• Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs
• Codified the GMF as part of legal policy system
DIVIDING THE CAKE
• No single authority to coral all the agencies/ministries
• Taken from pre-existing programs from each agency/ministry
• No timeline or resources devoted
FAILURE TO LAUNCH?
Idiosyncratic
Domestic politics
Bureaucratic politics
Threat diversity
• Lack of personal investment and instinct on defense, foreign or maritime policies
• Inability to expand close circle
• Leader of no political party• Re-election : infrastructure and social welfare• Severe polarization to 2019 elections
• Maritime governance chaos• No National Security Council• Did not choose foreign and defense ministers
• Internal security challenges• US-China competition• Maritime security through domestic lens
• “Global Maritime Fulcrum” no more?
• Double down on domestic agenda
• Even less geopolitics and less foreign policy profile
SECOND JOKOWI ADMIN FOCUS
NEW CABINET
• Accommodate rival Prabowo Subianto and Gerindra
• Foreign minister continues
• Civil-military balance
• Fisheries minister gone
• No structural change on policy management
FOREIGN POLICY
• Retno Marsudi stays on, backed by new Vice Minister Mahendra Siregar (Ambassador to US) to focus on economic diplomacy
• Low-key and domestically-appealing issues
• Personal rapport with Jokowi improved but policy performance not there yet
• Multilateral faith continues, as will the lack of independent capability to shape the region
• Buck-passing regional leadership
• Defense minister
• Prabowo Subianto
• Military Commander• Hadi Tjahjanto
• Coordinating Ministry for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs
• Mahfud MD
• National Legislature’s Commission 1• Headed by Golkar’s
Meutya Hafid withBambang Kristiono as one of the deputies
DEFENSE POLICY?
IMPLICATIONS
• The death of the Global Maritime Fulcrum and ”grand strategy”?
• Indo-Pacific• Underwhelming foreign policy but assertive defense policy
• Brittle civil-military relations and domestic politics (2024 paramount)
• ASEAN centrality affirmed
• Balancing protectionism, bureaucratic reform, and int. trade commitments (RCEP, IA-CPA, and others)
• Democracy taken for granted?
THANK YOU FOR TIME AND I LOOK FORWARD TO YOUR QUESTIONS