state of fear - nistsep 13, 2005 · schlesinger and ramankutty [nature, vol 367 (1994) pp....
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MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCES DIVISION
SEMINAR SERIES
Carbon Dioxide, Global Warming,
and Michael Crichton’s
“State of Fear”
Bert W. Rust
Math. and Comp. Sci. Div.
NIST
Gaithersburg, MD
Tuesday, Sept. 13, 2005, 15:00-16:00
NIST North (820), Room 145
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Abstract
In his recent novel, State of Fear (HarperCollins, 2004), MichaelCrichton questioned the reality of global warming and its connec-tion to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. He bolsteredhis arguments by including plots of historical temperature recordsand other environmental variables, together with footnotes and ap-pendices that purport to document them. Although most of hisarguments were flawed, he did introduce at least one legitimatequestion by pointing out that in the years 1940-1970, global tem-peratures were decreasing while atmospheric carbon dioxide wasincreasing. I resolve this apparent contradiction by constructinga suite of simple mathematical models for the temperature timeseries. Each model consists of an accelerating baseline plus a 64.7year sinusoidal oscillation. This cycle, which was first reported bySchlesinger and Ramankutty [Nature, Vol 367 (1994) pp. 723-726], appears also, with its sign reversed, in the time series recordof fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions. This suggests a negativetemperatue feedback in fossil fuel production. The acceleration inthe temperature baseline is demanded by the data, but the tem-perature record is not yet long enough to precisely specify boththe form and the rate of the acceleration. The most interestingmodel has a baseline derived from a power law relation betweentemperature changes and changes in the atmospheric carbon diox-ide level. And the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is easilymodelled by the cumulative accretion of a fixed fraction of eachyear’s fossil fuel emissions, so the power law model posits a directconnection between the emissions and the warming. For all of thetemperature models, the cycle was decreasing more rapidly thanthe baseline was rising in the years 1940-1970, and in 1880-1910.We have recently entered another declining phase of the cycle , butthe temperature hiatus this time will be far less dramatic becausethe accelerating baseline is rising more rapidly now.
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Michael Crichton, “State of Fear,”
HarperCollins (2004) pp. 86-87.
“So, if rising carbon dioxide is the cause of
rising temperatures, why didn’t it cause tem-
peratures to rise from 1940 to 1970?”
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“Now I want to direct your attention to the
period from 1940 to 1970. As you see, dur-
ing that period the global temperature actually
went down. You see that?”
“Yes ...”
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Atmospheric CO2 concentration data from
CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Lab.
High precision Mauna Loa measurements by
C. D. Keeling, et. al.
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Charles David Keeling
April 1928 – June 2005
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Choose t = 0 at epoch 1856.0
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P (t) = P0eαt − A1eαt sin
[
2π
τ(t + φ1)
]
α = 0.02824 ± .00029 τ = 64.7 ± 1.4
P0 = 132.7 ± 4.4 A1 = 25.1 ± 1.1
φ1 = −6.1 ± 2.4
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ω ≡2π
τ= 0.0971 [rad/yr]
P (ti) = P0eαti − A1eαti sin [ω(ti + φ1)]
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Model for the Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
c(t) = c0 + γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′ + δS(t)
where
P (t′) = P0eαt′ − A1eαt′ sin[
ω(t′ + φ1)]
S(t) ≡
0 , t ≤ tP12(t − tP ) , tP < t < (tP + 2)
1 , (tP + 2) ≤ t
tP = 1991.54 − 1856.0 = 135.54
Mount Pinatubo erupted on June 15, 1991
1 [ppmv] = 2130 [MtC]
Lianhong Gu, et al, “Response of a Deciduous Forest
to the Mount Pinatubo Eruption: Enhanced Photosyn-
thesis,” Science, 299 (2003) 2035-2038.
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c(t) = c0 + γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′ + δS(t)
c0 = 294.10 ± .19 [ppmv]
γ = 0.5926 ± .0026
δ = −2.05 ± .20 [ppmv]
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Extrapolating the Fit Backward
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Fitting the Combined Data Set
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P (t) = P0eαt − A1eαt sin [ω(t + φ1)]
c(t) = c0 + γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′ + δS(t)
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Temperature“anomaly”for year ti
≡
AverageTemperature
in year ti
−
Average Temp.for some
reference period
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Improved and Corrected Crichton Plot
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Stat. T (t) = T0 + ηt T (t) = T0 + ηt2
SSR 2.7572 1.9798
100R2 67.89% 76.94%
R2 = 1 −SSR
CTSS, CTSS =
m∑
i=1
(
Ti − T)2
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The data demand a concave upward baseline.
The warming is accelerating!
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Schlesinger and Ramankutty, “An oscillation
in the global climate system of period 65-70years,” Nature, 367 (1994) 723-726.
“These oscillations have obscured the green-house warming signal...”
“...the oscillation arises from predictable in-ternal variability of the ocean-atmosphere sys-tem.”
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A Gaiaen Feedback?
T (t) = T0 + ηt2 + A3 sin[
2πτ1
(t + φ1)]
P (t) = P0eαt − A1eαt sin[
2πτ1
(t + φ1)]
Could the presence of the 65-year cycle in both
records, with sign reversed, be caused by an
inverse temperature feedback?{
coolerwarmer
}
T (t) ⇒
{
moreless
}
demand for P (t)
B. W. Rust and B. L. Kirk, “Modulation of Fossil Fuel
Production by Global Temperature Variations,” Envi-
ronment International, 7 (1982) 419-422.
dP
dt=
(
α − βdT
dt
)
P , P (0) = P0
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P (t) = P0eαt − A1eαt sin [ω(t + φ1)]
c(t) = c0 + γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′ + δS(t)
T (t) = T0 + η t + A3 sin [ω(t + φ1)]
T (t) = T0 + η t2 + A3 sin [ω(t + φ1)]
T (t) = T0 + η exp
(
3α
5t
)
+ A3 sin [ω(t + φ1)]
T (t) = T0 + η [∆c]2/3 + A3 sin [ω(t + φ1)]
∆c ≡ c(t) − c0
= γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′ + δS(t)
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Stat. T0 + ηt T0 + ηt2 T0 + ηe3αt/5 T0 + η∆c2/3
SSR 1.8965 1.2891 1.2604 1.2630
100R2 77.91% 84.99% 85.32% 85.29%
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Note concave upward pattern in straight-line
residuals!
The warming is accelerating!
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T (t) = T0 + νt + ηt2 + A3 sin [ω(t + φ1)]
ν = (−1.08 ± .73) × 10−3 =⇒ H0 : ν = 0
F-test accepts H0 at the 95% level
The data demand a monotone increasing baseline
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T (t) = T0 + η eαt + A3 sin [ω(t + φ1)]
Stat. α = 0.0168 3α5 = 0.0169
SSR 1.46 1.26
100R2 83.0% 85.3%
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T (t) = T0 + η eαt + A3 sin [ω(t + φ1)]
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T (t) = T0 + η eνt + A3 sin [ω(t + φ1)]
η = 0.071 ± .024
ν = 0.0168 ± .0022
ρ(η, ν) = −0.995
3α
5= 0.0169 =⇒ η = 0.0690 ± .0024
Stat. ν = 0.0168 3α5 = 0.0169
SSR 1.260319 1.260355
100R2 85.3214% 85.3210%
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T (t) = T0 + η [∆c]ν + A3 sin [ω(t + φ1)]
η = (3.2 ± 2.5) × 10−4
ν = 0.645 ± .063
ρ(η, ν) = −0.9989
2
3= 0.6666667 =⇒ η = (2.490 ± .087) × 10−4
Stat. ν = 0.645 23 = 0.6666667
SSR 1.2620 1.2630
100R2 85.302% 85.290%
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The World’s Simplest Climate Model
(With apologies to Johannes Kepler)
“The third power of change in tropospheric
temperature is proportional to the square of
change in atmospheric CO2 concentration”
[T (t) − T0 ]3 = η [ c(t) − c0 ]2
T (t) = T0 + η [ c(t) − c0 ]2/3
“But an interaction between the oceans and
the amosphere imposes a cycle with period
τ ≈ 65 year on the temperatures which is in-
dependent of the CO2 concentration”
T (t) = T0 + η [c(t) − c0]2/3 + A3 sin
[
2π
τ(t + φ1)
]
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T (t) = T0 + η [c(t) − c0]2/3 + A3 sin
[
2π
τ(t + φ1)
]
c(t) = c0 + γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′ + δS(t)
T (t) = T0 + η
[
γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′ + δS(t)
]2/3
+ A3 sin
[
2π
τ(t + φ1)
]
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P (t) = P0eαt − A1eαt sin
[
2π
τ(t + φ1)
]
T (t) = T0 + η
[
γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′ + δS(t)
]2/3
+ A3 sin
[
2π
τ(t + φ1)
]
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T (t) = T0 + η
[
γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′ + δS(t)
]2/3
+ A3 sin
[
2π
τ(t + φ1)
]
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T (t) = T0 + η
[
γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′ + δS(t)
]2/3
+ A3 sin
[
2π
τ(t + φ1)
]
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T (t) = T0 + η
[
γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′ + δS(t)
]2/3
+ A3 sin
[
2π
τ(t + φ1)
]
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T (t) = T0 + η
[
γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′ + δS(t)
]2/3
+ A3 sin
[
2π
τ(t + φ1)
]
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T (t) = T0 + η
[
γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′ + δS(t)
]2/3
+ A3 sin
[
2π
τ(t + φ1)
]
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Extrapolating to epoch 2100.0 yields
P (2100) ≈ 140,000 [MtC/yr] ≈ 20 × P (2002)
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The next “cooling” period is
September 2007 – March 2040
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Kerry Emanuel, Nature, Vol. 436 (4 August
2005) pp. 686-687
“Here I define an index of the potential de-
structiveness of hurricanes based on the to-
tal dissipation of power, integrated over the
lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this
index has increased markedly since the mid-
1970s. I find that the record of net hurricane
power dissipation is highly correlated with trop-
ical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-
documented climate signals, including multi-
decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and
North Pacific, and global warming.”
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dPdt =
(
α − β dTdt
)
P , P (0) = P0
c(t) = c0 + γ∫ t
0P (t′)dt′
T (t) = T0 + η [c(t) − c0] + A sin[
2πτ (t + φ)
]
——————————————————–
dPdt =
(
α − β dTdt
)
P , P (0) = P0
dcdt = γP (t) , c(0) = c0
dTdt = ηdc
dt + 2πAτ cos
[
2πτ (t + φ)
]
, T (0) = T0
——————————————————–
dPdt = αP − β
{
η′P + A′ cos[
2πτ (t + φ)
]}
P , P (0) = P0
dcdt = γP , c(0) = c0
dTdt = η′P + A′ cos
[
2πτ (t + φ)
]
, T (0) = T0
η′ ≡ γη , A′ ≡2πA
τ
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