statpak may 2020 loudoun county… · 2020-05-18 · 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the...

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 1 Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. (MRIS ® ). “Northern Virginia” is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax. CONTRACTS Contract activity in April 2020 was down 34.8% from last April and was down in five of the six price categories. Through the first four months of the year contract activity is down 9.8%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 20 days in April 2020, up just one day from 19 days in April of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was up in April compared to last April. During the past 15 years, the Index has been as high as 92% (April 2005) and as low as 14% (August 2006). In April 2020, the Urgency Index was 84.7%, up from 83.0% in April 2019. And that is Loudoun County’s highest April Urgency Index since we started tracking this 12 years ago. INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of April was down 21.8% compared to the end of April 2019 and was down for all six price categories. The number of new listings coming on the market decreased 30.8% compared to April 2019. The decrease in inventory combined with the decrease in contract activity raising overall supply to 1.5 months from 1.2 months at the end of April 2019. INTEREST RATES 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of April stood at 3.23%, about seven-eighths of a point lower than this time last year, slightly lower than the end of last month. It is likely that rates will continue to hover near these historic lows to help stave off further declines in new contract activity. AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 29% higher today than it was a decade ago in April 2010 – but the median price is 60.5% higher over that same time period. The payment is 4.2% lower than April of last year because of lower interest rates and despite higher prices. The payment for a median priced home ($2,344) in April was slightly lower than the median rented price ($2,395). DIRECTION OF THE MARKET The full force of the impact of COVID-19 on Loudoun County’s real estate market was felt in April. Almost equal percentages of would-be sellers and buyers opted out of the market as new listing and contract activity both fell by a third from last April’s numbers. As rough as these numbers are, the month ended better than it began, as we saw contract activity fall by 40% in the first two weeks. While most market metrics were negative in April, the buyers that are in the market are serious and the average number of days on market for homes that went under contract was little changed from last April’s robust market. Despite the significant drop in overall activity, the relative balance between supply and demand was little changed, keeping prices from falling. Historically low mortgage interest rates are helping as well. Nonetheless, we expect the market to continue to lag well behind last year’s into the summer because of the havoc wreaked on the economy by COVID-19. But as we have noted before, the region’s real estate market is among the most resilient in the county, and we will get through it. LOUDOUN COUNTY MAY 2020 STATPAK McEnearney.com MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR APRIL 2020

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Page 1: STATPAK MAY 2020 LOUDOUN COUNTY… · 2020-05-18 · 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of April stood at 3.23%, about seven-eighths of a point lower than this time

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 1

Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. (MRIS®). “Northern Virginia” is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax.

CONTRACTS Contract activity in April 2020 was down 34.8% from last April and was down in five of the six price categories. Through the first four months of the year contract activity is down 9.8%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 20 days in April 2020, up just one day from 19 days in April of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was up in April compared to last April. During the past 15 years, the Index has been as high as 92% (April 2005) and as low as 14% (August 2006). In April 2020, the Urgency Index was 84.7%, up from 83.0% in April 2019. And that is Loudoun County’s highest April Urgency Index since we started tracking this 12 years ago.

INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of April was down 21.8% compared to the end of April 2019 and was down for all six price categories. The number of new listings coming on the market decreased 30.8% compared to April 2019. The decrease in inventory combined with the decrease in contract activity raising overall supply to 1.5 months from 1.2 months at the end of April 2019.

INTEREST RATES 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of April stood at 3.23%, about seven-eighths of a point lower than this time last year, slightly lower than the end of last month. It is likely that rates will continue to hover near these historic lows to help stave off further declines in new contract activity.

AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 29% higher today than it was a decade ago in April 2010 – but the median price is 60.5% higher over that same time period. The payment is 4.2% lower than April of last year because of lower interest rates and despite higher prices. The payment for a median priced home ($2,344) in April was slightly lower than the median rented price ($2,395).

DIRECTION OF THE MARKET The full force of the impact of COVID-19 on Loudoun County’s real estate market was felt in April. Almost equal percentages of would-be sellers and buyers opted out of the market as new listing and contract activity both fell by a third from last April’s numbers. As rough as these numbers are, the month ended better than it began, as we saw contract activity fall by 40% in the first two weeks. While most market metrics were negative in April, the buyers that are in the market are serious and the average number of days on market for homes that went under contract was little changed from last April’s robust market. Despite the significant drop in overall activity, the relative balance between supply and demand was little changed, keeping prices from falling. Historically low mortgage interest rates are helping as well. Nonetheless, we expect the market to continue to lag well behind last year’s into the summer because of the havoc wreaked on the economy by COVID-19. But as we have noted before, the region’s real estate market is among the most resilient in the county, and we will get through it.

LOUDOUN COUNTY MAY 2020 STATPAK

McEnearney.com

MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR APRIL 2020

Page 2: STATPAK MAY 2020 LOUDOUN COUNTY… · 2020-05-18 · 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of April stood at 3.23%, about seven-eighths of a point lower than this time

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 2

MONTHLY SUMMARY APRIL 2019 vs. APRIL 2020

April April %LOUDOUN COUNTY 2019 2020 Change

Number of Sales 564 573 1.6%Fully Available Inventory on 4/30 944 738 -21.8%Number of New Listings 977 676 -30.8%Number of New Contracts 771 503 -34.8%Days on Market - New Contracts 19 20 5.3%Average Sales Price $530,574 $582,013 9.7%Average Seller Subsidy $2,409 $2,048 -15.0%Urgency Index 83.0% 84.7% 2.0%Months' Supply 1.2 1.5 19.8%

NORTHERN VIRGINIANumber of Sales 2,163 1,715 -20.7%Fully Available Inventory on 4/30 2,530 1,968 -22.2%Number of New Listings 3,179 2,074 -34.8%Number of New Contracts 2,535 1,665 -34.3%Days on Market - New Contracts 17 19 11.8%Average Sales Price $621,537 $668,187 7.5%Average Seller Subsidy $1,798 $1,715 -4.6%Urgency Index 87.0% 85.2% -2.1%Months' Supply 1.0 1.2 18.4%

WASHINGTON, DCNumber of Sales 875 596 -31.9%Fully Available Inventory on 4/30 1,376 1,358 -1.3%Number of New Listings 1,355 858 -36.7%Number of New Contracts 1,058 531 -49.8%Days on Market - New Contracts 31 34 9.7%Average Sales Price $691,208 $734,197 6.2%Average Seller Subsidy $2,029 $2,540 25.2%Urgency Index 76.7% 73.6% -4.0%Months' Supply 1.3 2.6 96.6%

MONTGOMERY COUNTYNumber of Sales 1,101 963 -12.5%Fully Available Inventory on 4/30 2,176 1,437 -34.0%Number of New Listings 1,993 1,056 -47.0%Number of New Contracts 1,455 821 -43.6%Days on Market - New Contracts 30 26 -13.3%Average Sales Price $543,538 $590,446 8.6%Average Seller Subsidy $3,105 $3,449 11.1%Urgency Index 78.5% 76.0% -3.2%Months' Supply 1.5 1.8 17.0%

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTYNumber of Sales 873 743 -14.9%Fully Available Inventory on 4/30 1,490 1,180 -20.8%Number of New Listings 1,343 913 -32.0%Number of New Contracts 1,316 826 -37.2%Days on Market - New Contracts 43 36 -16.3%Average Sales Price $307,521 $345,488 12.3%Average Seller Subsidy $5,432 $6,168 13.5%Urgency Index 65.0% 72.2% 11.1%Months' Supply 1.1 1.4 26.2%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 3

YEAR-TO-DATE SUMMARY 2019 vs. 2020

Jan-Apr Jan-Apr %LOUDOUN COUNTY 2019 2020 Change

Number of Closed Sales 1,656 1,759 6.2%Average Month-End Available Inventory 809 670 -17.2%Number of New Listings 3,133 2,881 -8.0%Number of New Contracts 2,384 2,150 -9.8%Days on Market - New Contracts 30 28 -7.6%Average Sales Price $527,909 $573,317 8.6%Average Seller Subsidy $2,813 $2,397 -14.8%Average Urgency Index 77.1% 82.4% 6.9%Average Months' Supply 1.4 1.2 -8.2%

NORTHERN VIRGINIANumber of Closed Sales 6,026 5,807 -3.6%Average Month-End Available Inventory 2,093 1,732 -17.2%Number of New Listings 9,711 8,656 -10.9%Number of New Contracts 7,859 6,930 -11.8%Days on Market - New Contracts 26 25 -3.3%Average Sales Price $595,327 $646,150 8.5%Average Seller Subsidy $2,229 $1,985 -10.9%Average Urgency Index 79.9% 83.2% 4.1%Average Months' Supply 1.1 1.0 -6.1%

WASHINGTON, DCNumber of Closed Sales 2,567 2,609 1.6%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,262 1,242 -1.5%Number of New Listings 4,361 4,030 -7.6%Number of New Contracts 3,384 2,960 -12.5%Days on Market - New Contracts 41 41 0.0%Average Sales Price $703,030 $724,021 3.0%Average Seller Subsidy $2,479 $2,781 12.2%Average Urgency Index 67.6% 67.2% -0.6%Average Months' Supply 1.5 1.7 12.6%

MONTGOMERY COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 3,039 3,381 11.3%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,763 1,339 -24.1%Number of New Listings 5,725 5,023 -12.3%Number of New Contracts 4,417 3,962 -10.3%Days on Market - New Contracts 45 38 -15.9%Average Sales Price $532,200 $560,383 5.3%Average Seller Subsidy $3,602 $3,593 -0.2%Average Urgency Index 66.6% 70.3% 5.5%Average Months' Supply 1.6 1.4 -15.4%

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 2,847 2,876 1.0%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,607 1,166 -27.4%Number of New Listings 4,745 4,316 -9.0%Number of New Contracts 4,577 3,822 -16.5%Days on Market - New Contracts 53 42 -20.3%Average Sales Price $300,650 $332,955 10.7%Average Seller Subsidy $5,674 $6,198 9.2%Average Urgency Index 54.2% 64.3% 18.6%Average Months' Supply 1.4 1.2 -13.0%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend

Year-to-Date

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 4

BUYING POWER • A $1,000 principal and interest

payment supported a loan of $230,357 at the end of April, which is $24,393 more than April 2019, and $39,319 more than April 2009.

• In April 2010, it would have taken a monthly PI payment of $1,819 to purchase a median-priced home, and it’s $2,344 now.

• That’s a 29% increase – but the median price is up 61% in that 10-year period.

AVERAGE PRICES • The average sales price in April

2020 was $582,013, which was up 9.7% from the April 2019 average price of $530,574.

• Remember that these indicators are arithmetic computations based on all properties sold and do not indicate the appreciation or depreciation of any individual property.

BUYING POWER Mortgage Amount with $1,000 Payment

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Loudoun County – 2012-Current

LOUDOUN COUNTY – Detail Pages

MORTGAGE RATES • 30-year fixed interest rates at

the end of April averaged 3.23%, compared to 4.14% at the end of April 2019.

• One-year adjustable rate mortgages were 3.14% at the end of April 2019, which is down from 3.68% at the end of April 2019.

30-YEAR FIXED AND 1-YEAR ADJUSTABLE RATES Month-End Mortgage Rates – 2013-Current

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Page 5: STATPAK MAY 2020 LOUDOUN COUNTY… · 2020-05-18 · 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of April stood at 3.23%, about seven-eighths of a point lower than this time

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 5

URGENCY INDEX - April • During the past 12 years, the April

Urgency Index has been as high as 84.7% and as low as 49.8%. And we’re at that high mark now.

• The average April Urgency Index during the past 12 years is 70.5% – which is significantly lower than where we are today.

• Contract activity is down 34.8% from last April – but the Urgency Index increased from 83.0% to 84.7%.

URGENCY INDEX Loudoun County – April 2009-2020

URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison – April 2020

URGENCY INDEX – DC Metro Area • The average April Urgency Index

during the past 12 years for all five of the jurisdictions we track is 68.4% – significantly lower than where we are today, which is 79.5% for all five jurisdictions.

• Loudoun County is in second place this month. As noted above, it is at its 12-year peak.

URGENCY INDEX % of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less

Loudoun County – 2016-Current

URGENCY INDEX – 2016-Current • This chart compares the number

of contracts (green line) to the percent that were on the market 30 days or less (blue bars). At first glance, it might appear that the lower contract activity also means a lower percentage of homes that sell quickly – but that’s not always true.

• Across the DC metro area, as contract activity fell in the second half of March in reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic, the urgency index actually rose.

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Page 6: STATPAK MAY 2020 LOUDOUN COUNTY… · 2020-05-18 · 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of April stood at 3.23%, about seven-eighths of a point lower than this time

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 6

NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY • As noted on page 2, the number

of new contracts ratified in April 2020 was down 34.8% from the number of contracts ratified in April 2019.

• There were decreases for five price categories.

• As noted on page 3, contract activity year-to-date is down 9.8%.

• Only 13.7% of all homes going under contract in April 2020 had at least one price reduction before going under contract. Last April it was 14.8%.

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS • As noted on page 2, the available

inventory for April 2020 was down 21.8% from April 2019. There were decreases for all six price categories.

• 26.8% of all homes on the market have had at least one price reduction since coming on the market.

• In April 2019, 28.3% of all homes on the market had at least one price reduction.

MONTHS’ SUPPLY • The overall supply of homes on

the market at the end of April was 1.5 months, up from 1.2 months at the end of April 2019.

• Supply actually decreased for two price categories.

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS Loudoun County – April 30, 2019 vs. April 30, 2020

MONTHS’ SUPPLY Loudoun County – End of April 2019 vs. End of April 2020

NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Loudoun County – April 2019 vs. April 2020 by Price Range

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$300,000 - $499,999

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$1,500,000 and higher

# of New Contracts

April 2020

April 2019

Page 7: STATPAK MAY 2020 LOUDOUN COUNTY… · 2020-05-18 · 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of April stood at 3.23%, about seven-eighths of a point lower than this time

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 7

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON THE MARKET – NEW CONTRACTS • The average number of days on

the market for all homes receiving contracts in April 2020 was 20 days, which is a 5.3% increase from 19 days in April 2019.

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, CONTRACTS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS • There were 676 new listings that

came on the market in April 2020, a decrease of 30.8% from 977 in April 2019.

• The lines representing active listings (green), new listings (blue) and new contracts (red) have narrowed since the middle of last year, and now virtually overlap.

• This remained true in April despite the much slower market.

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET • Initial pricing strategy is critical

to the listing process, regardless of market conditions. The longer a home sits on the market, the deeper the discount to its original list price will likely be.

• Homes settling in April 2020 that received contracts their first week on the market sold, on average, 0.76% above list. Those that took more than 120 days to sell sold 5.13% below the original price.

SOME DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS TO AID YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE DATA • The data shown here are collected, in whole or in part, from the Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc, and are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed • “Sales” are transactions that settled during the statistical period; “Under Contracts” are contracts negotiated during the statistical period, but not yet settled • “Available Listings” reflects single-family homes, town homes, new homes and condos on the market at the end of the period in question. • “Months’ Supply” is simply the number of “Fully Available Listings” on the market at the end of the month divided by the number of “Contracts” ratified that month.

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, NEW CONTRACTS, AND ACTIVE LISTINGS

Loudoun County – January 2014-Current

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET

Resale Properties Sold in Loudoun County – April 2019 vs. April 2020

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON MARKET Loudoun County – April 2019 vs. April 2020 – New Contracts

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# of Days on Market

April 2020

April 2019

Page 8: STATPAK MAY 2020 LOUDOUN COUNTY… · 2020-05-18 · 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of April stood at 3.23%, about seven-eighths of a point lower than this time

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 8

CONDO/CO-OP – LISTINGS • The number of new listings for

condos and co-ops coming on the market in April 2020 decreased 27.2% compared to April 2019.

• The fully available inventory of condos as of April 30, 2020 increased 1.7% compared to 2019.

• As the numbers indicate, condos do not represent a significant slice of the Loudoun market.

LISTINGS

Analysis by Property Type – Condo/Co-op

CONDO/CO-OP – CONTRACTS • The number of condos and

co-ops receiving ratified contracts decreased 46.5% in April 2020 compared to April 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is down 11.1% compared to 2019.

CONTRACTS

CONDO/CO-OP – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of condos and

co-ops settling in April 2020 decreased 10.0% compared to April 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements is up 6.5%.

• The average price was up 9.1% compared to April 2019.

• Year-to-date, the average sales price is up 12.2%.

SETTLEMENTS

Condo/Co-opListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 56 35 -37.5% 21 22 4.8%$300,000 - $499,999 98 73 -25.5% 86 83 -3.5%$500,000 - $749,999 8 8 0.0% 11 15 36.4%$750,000 - $999,999 0 2 - 1 1 0.0%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 0 0 - 0 0 -$1,500,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -Grand Total: 162 118 -27.2% 119 121 1.7%

New This Month Total Active

Condo/Co-opContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 53 27 -49.1% 173 107 -38.2%$300,000 - $499,999 87 47 -46.0% 233 246 5.6%$500,000 - $749,999 2 2 0.0% 8 13 62.5%$750,000 - $999,999 0 0 - 0 2 -$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 0 0 - 0 0 -$1,500,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -Grand Total: 142 76 -46.5% 414 368 -11.1%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Condo/Co-opSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 41 25 -39.0% 130 91 -30.0%$300,000 - $499,999 45 52 15.6% 144 190 31.9%$500,000 - $749,999 4 3 -25.0% 5 15 200.0%$750,000 - $999,999 0 1 - 0 1 -$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 0 0 - 0 0 -$1,500,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -Grand Total: 90 81 -10.0% 279 297 6.5%

Average Sales Price: Apr 2019 Apr 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeCondo/Co-op $316,202 $344,897 9.1% $309,729 $347,616 12.2%

New This Month Year-To-Date

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 9

Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Attached

ATTACHED HOMES – LISTINGS • The number of new listings

coming on the market in April 2020 for fee simple attached homes decreased 33.4% compared to April 2019.

• The fully active inventory at the end of April is down 9.4% compared to the available inventory at the end of April 2019.

LISTINGS

ATTACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS • Contract activity for attached

homes decreased 33.2% in April 2020 compared to April 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is down 18.6% compared to 2019.

CONTRACTS

ATTACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of settlements

decreased 12.3% in April 2020 compared to April 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements decreased 8.2%.

• The average sales price is up 5.3% in April 2020 compared to April 2019.

• The average sales price year-to-date is up 5.3%.

SETTLEMENTS

Fee Simple AttachedListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 10 2 -80.0% 4 3 -25.0%$300,000 - $499,999 206 107 -48.1% 70 40 -42.9%$500,000 - $749,999 100 98 -2.0% 96 107 11.5%$750,000 - $999,999 3 4 33.3% 9 11 22.2%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 1 2 100.0% 1 2 100.0%$1,500,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -Grand Total: 320 213 -33.4% 180 163 -9.4%

New This Month Total Active

Fee Simple AttachedContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 7 1 -85.7% 22 11 -50.0%$300,000 - $499,999 174 105 -39.7% 592 443 -25.2%$500,000 - $749,999 76 65 -14.5% 250 243 -2.8%$750,000 - $999,999 2 2 0.0% 8 12 50.0%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 0 0 - 0 1 -$1,500,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -Grand Total: 259 173 -33.2% 872 710 -18.6%

Year-To-DateNew This Month

Fee Simple AttachedSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 2 3 50.0% 13 12 -7.7%$300,000 - $499,999 143 110 -23.1% 436 345 -20.9%$500,000 - $749,999 72 76 5.6% 180 219 21.7%$750,000 - $999,999 3 4 33.3% 7 7 0.0%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 0 0 - 2 3 50.0%$1,500,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -Grand Total: 220 193 -12.3% 638 586 -8.2%

Average Sales Price: Apr 2019 Apr 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeFee Simple Attached $471,230 $496,257 5.3% $463,997 $488,536 5.3%

New This Month Year-To-Date

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 10

Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Detached

DETACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS • The number of contracts for

detached homes in April 2020 decreased 31.4% compared to April 2019.

• The number of contracts year-to-date is down 2.4%.

CONTRACTS

DETACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of settlements in

April increased 17.7% from April 2019. Year-to-date, there has been an increase of 18.5%.

• The average sales price for detached homes increased 6.6% in April 2020 compared to April 2019.

• Year-to-date, the average sales price is up 6.2%.

SETTLEMENTS

DETACHED HOMES – LISTINGS • The number of new listings for

fee simple detached homes was down 30.3% in April 2020 compared to April 2019.

• The number of detached homes on the market on April 30, 2020 was down 29.6% compared to April 30, 2019.

LISTINGS

Fee Simple DetachedListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 3 1 -66.7% 4 3 -25.0%$300,000 - $499,999 91 53 -41.8% 62 46 -25.8%$500,000 - $749,999 255 144 -43.5% 257 112 -56.4%$750,000 - $999,999 112 124 10.7% 211 190 -10.0%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 25 15 -40.0% 57 51 -10.5%$1,500,000 & higher 9 8 -11.1% 54 52 -3.7%Grand Total: 495 345 -30.3% 645 454 -29.6%

New This Month Total Active

Fee Simple DetachedContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 3 1 -66.7% 11 11 0.0%$300,000 - $499,999 78 39 -50.0% 221 185 -16.3%$500,000 - $749,999 189 119 -37.0% 566 510 -9.9%$750,000 - $999,999 78 84 7.7% 233 302 29.6%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 18 9 -50.0% 52 48 -7.7%$1,500,000 & higher 4 2 -50.0% 15 16 6.7%Grand Total: 370 254 -31.4% 1098 1072 -2.4%

Year-To-DateNew This Month

Fee Simple DetachedSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 4 1 -75.0% 9 8 -11.1%$300,000 - $499,999 42 41 -2.4% 144 151 4.9%$500,000 - $749,999 147 155 5.4% 392 423 7.9%$750,000 - $999,999 49 84 71.4% 151 235 55.6%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 10 14 40.0% 34 44 29.4%$1,500,000 & higher 2 4 100.0% 9 15 66.7%Grand Total: 254 299 17.7% 739 876 18.5%

Average Sales Price: Apr 2019 Apr 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeFee Simple Detached $657,933 $701,603 6.6% $665,458 $706,553 6.2%

Year-To-DateNew This Month

Page 11: STATPAK MAY 2020 LOUDOUN COUNTY… · 2020-05-18 · 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of April stood at 3.23%, about seven-eighths of a point lower than this time

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Loudoun County StatPak - Page 11

ABSORPTION RATES – CONDOS AND COOPS • The overall absorption rate for

condos and co-ops for April 2020 was 38.6%, a significant decrease from 54.4% in April 2019.

• Safe to say the market for condos priced more than $500,000 is very limited.

ABSORPTION RATES – ATTACHED HOMES • The overall absorption rate for

attached homes for April 2020 was 51.5%, a decrease from April 2019’s 59.0%.

ABSORPTION RATES – DETACHED HOMES • April 2020’s absorption rate for

detached homes was 35.9%, a slight decrease from the 36.5% rate from April 2019.

• And as we have seen in the other property types, the absorption rates are higher for the lower-priced categories.

Absorption Rate by Property Type The following tables track absorption rate by property type, comparing the rates in the just-completed month to the rates in the same month of the previous year. The absorption rate is a measure of the health of the market and tracks the percentage of homes that were on the market during the given month and in the given price range that went under contract. [The formula is # Contracts/ (# Contracts + # Available).] An example: The absorption rate for detached homes priced between $500,000 and $749,999 in April 2020 was 51.5%. That compares to a rate of 42.4% in April 2019, and the increase means the market was better in 2020 for that type of home. If the absorption rate was less in 2020 than in 2019, we have put the 2020 rate in red. This month there was improvement for just 3 of 15 individual price categories with activity, and two remained the same.

Condo/Co-opAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 21 53 71.6% 22 27 55.1%$300,000 - $499,999 86 87 50.3% 83 47 36.2%$500,000 - $749,999 11 2 15.4% 15 2 11.8%$750,000 - $999,999 1 0 0.0% 1 0 0.0%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 0 0 - 0 0 -$1,500,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -Grand Total: 119 142 54.4% 121 76 38.6%

April 2019 April 2020

Fee Simple AttachedAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 4 7 63.6% 3 1 25.0%$300,000 - $499,999 70 174 71.3% 40 105 72.4%$500,000 - $749,999 96 76 44.2% 107 65 37.8%$750,000 - $999,999 9 2 18.2% 11 2 15.4%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 1 0 0.0% 2 0 0.0%$1,500,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -Grand Total: 180 259 59.0% 163 173 51.5%

April 2019 April 2020

Fee Simple DetachedAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 4 3 42.9% 3 1 25.0%$300,000 - $499,999 62 78 55.7% 46 39 45.9%$500,000 - $749,999 257 189 42.4% 112 119 51.5%$750,000 - $999,999 211 78 27.0% 190 84 30.7%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 57 18 24.0% 51 9 15.0%$1,500,000 & higher 54 4 6.9% 52 2 3.7%Grand Total: 645 370 36.5% 454 254 35.9%

April 2019 April 2020