Status of Food Security in Africa

Adama Ekberg Couliably, PhD.

Chief, APSS/FSSDD

8th Session of the Committee on Food Security and Sustainable Development (CFSSD-8)

19-21 Novembre 2012Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Status of Food Security in 2012Status of Food Security in 2012• The number and proportion of undernourished people is

estimated at 239 millions and 22.9 % in 2010-2012 despite a slight improvement (11 % decline in 2009) due to the massive food policy responses which follow the global food crisis of 2007-2008.

• Unacceptably high and disturbing numbers considering that these statistics are not just numbers but people in dire situation.

• Almost 1/3 to ½ depending of country cases, of total population still suffer from hunger despite USD 50 Bn of commercial imports and at least USD 2 Bn of food aid per annum.

• Food insecurity not a marginal issue globally and locally.

A mixed food insecurity pictureA mixed food insecurity picture when looking into the details in change observed so far (2010-2012)

in the number of undernourished globally and locally…

• World (-33%) from 1 billion people (1990/92) to 868 (2010/12)

•Africa (36.8%) from 175 million people to 239 million

•Ghana (-87%); Malawi (-16.9%) ; Mali (-44.3%); Nigeria (-28.1%); Rwanda (-11.9%)

•Botswana (+45.3); Ethiopia (+0.1%) ; Uganda (+146%) •Cote d’Ivoire (+143%)

• The situation is improving in some countries while worsening in others to suggest more context specific food policy interventions when addressing food insecurity.

Addressing food insecurityAddressing food insecurity still remains a challenge

for well known reasons but still not well addressed at their roots …

•The situation is constantly affected by a complexity of factors not always controllable…

• The factors of concern are well documented and contributing to insufficient national food availability relative to growing and changing food demand causing Africa’s structural food import imbalances to skyrocket despite its countless potentials and natural resources base.

• Insufficient access to food by poor households and individuals, net food importing nations resulting to increased vulnerability to risks as well as shocks.

Addressing food insecurity in Africa Addressing food insecurity in Africa still remains a challenge as well as an opportunityChallenges & Opportunities : • High population and urban growth prospects with expanding

global economy• High and volatile food prices to stay • Primary resources still 80 % of exports• Intra Africa trading in agricultural and food products still less

than 10 % • Growing consumer middle class and dietary shifts with

increased prosperity • Fast pacing technological innovation and penetration• These are all good reasons to increase strategic investments into

agriculture to address Africa’s long standing supply side constraints and intra-African trading barriers

• and meet the growing demand for quality food

Addressing global and local food insecurity real opportunity for African governments to act and play smart in global markets

• 1 tonne per person per year

• World food production is currently 6.5 billion tonnes for 6.8 billion people

• Africa food production is currently 0.5 billion tons for 1 billion people. Already a deficit of 50%

• World population predicted to double in 50 years

• Africa's population to double in 25 years.

Climate change and variabilityClimate change and variability to create impacts in various hotspots...

•Heavy storms, repeated droughts, uncontrolled bush fires•Off-season rainfalls patterns•Emergence of new invasive plant species•Drives mass migration•Temperate crops shifting to tropics•New regulations

•All good reasons to stay prudent by investing more in education, research, science and innovation especially to generate more innovative insurance products to protect the most vulnerable vs risks, shocks.

Ongoing rapid shifting from a period ofOngoing rapid shifting from a period of global, cheaper food prices to

much higher and volatile ones…

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1980

-198

9

1990

-199

9

2000

-200

9Source:UNCTAD

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeam oil

Palm oil

Crudepetroleum

Imported domestic food price volatility Imported domestic food price volatility toto stay

Rice W

heat

Rice

Mai

ze

Mai

ze

Whe

at

Cass

ava

Sorg

hum

Mill

et

Cass

ava

Sorg

hum

Sorg

hum

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Benin Ethiopia Mali Mozambique Nigeria Sudan

Domestic Prices

volatility (%)

Maintained high and volatile prices (before, after the global food crisis) unsustainable for the poor Uncertainty in prices and high volatility hinder growth, stability and investments into agriculture

Need for regionally based Early warning systems and food markets surveillance institutions ; Price and income stabilization instruments to promote more resilient productions system in support of strategic regional commodity and food value chains.

Still tight and thin global grain marketsStill tight and thin global grain markets to prevail ahead…to prevail ahead…

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

2010

/11

Source: USDA, 2010. Note: Right axis (production), left axis (consumption, ending stocks), in million Tons

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

Consumption Ending stocks Production Need to rely on more effective regionally and nationally based strategic grain reserve systems + robust solidary fund

There is wide agreement that the time has come for Africa to take actions and produce

its own food to meet growing food demand.. u

How do we meet the food demand, with such short notice mentioned earlier while reducing vulnerability to future risks and shocks as well as global uncertainty ?

● Sustained strategic agricultural and rural investments are needed now • To address existing agricultural productivity gaps • To increase decisively food production and value addition in strategic commodity and food products thru Regional Value Chain promotion approach.• To remove barriers to intra- African trade in strategic commodity and food products.

Policy options,…Priority actions going forward ? National policies (1)

Strengthen at all levels African governance and coordination structures and mechanisms, as well as monitoring and evaluation structures and systems in food and nutrition security matters.

African Governments must promote and support agricultural growth and rural transformation programmes by significant investments, appropriate policies and effective institutions,

Enhance competitiveness and value addition, increase strategic staple production

Give priority to more targeting with food safety nets and social protection instruments tailored to needs of the poor

Enhance policy coherence in order to ensure that climate change or energy policies do not jeopardize food security, e.g. by promoting biofuel for example at the expense of food production for instance.

Policy options, …Priority actions going forward ? - Sustainability (2)

• Policies should focus in the short run on sustainable agricultural productivity improvement, leading to increased food and agricultural production and development of well integrated agricultural market channels. Focus also should be on African smallholder farmers in efforts to increase agricultural productivity and production.

• Ensure social and environmental sustainability of the food and agricultural systems.

• Invest to reduce post-harvest + post consumption waste and losses.

Policy options, …Priority actions going forward ? Regional levels (3) An effective regional mechanism should be in place to

monitor the food security status so that appropriate and timely actions are implemented to address the current food crisis.

Strategic food reserves systems need to be instituted in the region (especially in food insecurity hotspots) so that emergencies are swiftly and efficiently dealt with.

Experience sharing and cooperation among African countries should be promoted within the framework of the RECs, with a view to boosting investment in agriculture and enhancing food security across the region

Strengthen at all levels African emergency and humanitarian intervention, and reform food aid.

Policy options,… priority actions going forward ? (4)

• Fast-track establishment of rural industrial clustering joint ventures and regional industrial growth poles arrangements to foster accelerated agricultural growth and rural transformation by putting in place the necessary five conditions for rapidly achieving agricultural transformation and rural growth.

• 1. stable framework for macro economic and political stability

• 2. access to lucrative markets

• 3. effective science, technology transfer system

• 4. effective ownership system

• 5. expanding job creating non agricultural sectors

Policy options, Priority actions going forward ? (5)• ‘Where there is an effective

transformational leadership, strong political commitment and will to put the right institutions, to provide the right incentive structures as well as means to implement the right policies as clearly shown here for Asia (top panel) and China (bottom panel), there is a way’.

• It is not too late to act to put in place solidarity instruments for price stabilization and inclusive growth in Africa.

Thank Youacoulibaly@uneca.org