steel industry update #276

7/31/2019 Steel Industry Update #276

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Email: [email protected] | Website: www.lockerassociates.com

Steel Industry Update/276 July 2012 Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007 Tel: 212-962-2980

Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, May & Year-to-Date, 2012Month of May Year-to-Date

(000 net tons) 2012 2011 % Chg 2012 2011 % ChgRaw Steel Production ............... 8,723 7,872 10.8% 42,938 39,067 9.9%

Capacity Utilization ................. 79.2 72.7 -- 79.6 74.1 --Mill Shipments .......................... 8,437 7,380 14.3% 42,100 37,141 13.4%Exports ..................................... 1,263 1,144 10.4% 6,106 5,313 14.9%Total Imports ............................. 3,064 2,964 3.4% 14,812 11,940 24.1%

Finished Steel Imports ............ 2,412 2,011 19.9% 11,401 8,947 27.4% Apparent Steel Supply *............. 9,587 8,247 16.2% 47,395 40,774 16.2%

Imports as % of Supply *. .. .. ... .. 25.2 24.4 -- 24.1 21.9 -- Average Spot Price ** ($/ton) ...... $780 $939 -17.0% $812 $923 -12.1% Scrap Price # ($/ton) ................... $428 $427 0.2% $440 $440 0.0%Sources: AISI, SteelBenchmarker *Excl semi-finished imports **Avg price of 3 carbon products #shredded scrap

Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Steel Products, July & Year-to-Date, 2012

Month of July Year-to-Date ($ per net ton) 2012 2011 % Chg 2012 2011 % ChgHot Rolled Band.... $607 $735 -17.4% $678 $812 -16.5%Cold Rolled Coil........ 707 826 -14.4% 778 905 -14.1%Coiled Plate.................. 819 1033 -20.7% 907 1,010 -10.2%Average Spot Price.... $711 $865 -17.8% $788 $909 -13.4%OCTG* $1,971 $1,926 2.3% $2,014 $1,860 8.3%#1 Heavy Melt... $295 $401 -26.4% $374 $403 -7.1%

Shredded Scrap... 332 443 -25.1% 415 440 -5.8%#1 Busheling. 329 483 -31.9% 433 474 -8.8%

Sources: World Steel Dynamics, Spears Research, 7/12; *OCTG data is June 2012


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Steel Industry Update/276

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Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, June & Year-to-Date, 2012(000 metric tons) Month of June Year-to-Date Region 2012 2011 % Chg 2012 2011 % ChgEuropean Union. 14,732 15,573 -5.4% 88,934 93,179 -4.6%Other Europe. 3,154 3,060 3.1% 19,147 18,101 5.8%

C.I.S. 9,265 9,282 -0.2% 56,693 56,656 0.1%North America 10,204 9,940 2.7% 63,359 59,100 7.2%South America... 3,764 4,129 -8.8% 23,623 24,470 -3.5%

Africa/Middle East..... 2,884 2,970 -2.9% 17,456 17,502 -0.3% Asia.. 83,437 82,461 1.2% 494,834 487,187 1.6%Oceania.... .. 460 571 -19.4% 2,815 4,007 -29.7%Total 127,900 127,986 -0.1% 766,861 760,203 0.9%CountryChina....... 60,213 59,840 0.6% 357,197 350,738 1.8%Japan... 9,199 8,886 3.5% 54,066 54,072 0.0%United States.. 7,304 7,246 0.8% 46,257 42,686 8.4%India (e). 6,380 6,249 2.1% 37,982 36,854 3.1%South Korea....... 5,895 5,651 4.3% 35,020 33,955 3.1%Russia (e). 5,780 5,762 0.3% 35,686 34,742 2.7%Germany. .. 3,729 3,883 -4.0% 21,881 23,196 -5.7%Turkey 2,936 2,824 4.0% 17,924 16,404 9.3%Ukraine (e) ... 2,870 2,776 3.4% 17,176 17,702 -3.0%Brazil... 2,749 3,004 -8.5% 17,390 17,828 -2.5%

All Others.... 20,845 21,865 -4.7% 126,282 132,026 -4.4%Source: World Steel Association, 7/12; e=estimate

Source: World Steel Association, 7/12; in million metric tons

Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production, June 2012


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Table 4: U.S. Steel Exports by Country or Region, YTD 2012

Country/Region YTD 12 YTD 11 % ChgCanada 3,007,805 2,797,799 7.5%Mexico 1,782,800 1,254,078 42.2%

EU 295,584 235,201 25.7%

Other Asia 124,656 108,052 15.4%

Other W. Hemisphere 113,481 104,538 8.6%Peru 96,540 41,095 134.9%

Dominican Republic 91,271 118,137 -22.7%

Brazil 78,268 49,715 57.4%

Colombia 69,526 34,175 103.4%

Venezuela 64,447 21,120 205.1%

Africa 61,284 48,245 27.0%

China 51,234 75,345 -32.0%

India 48,732 65,505 -25.6%

Taiwan 42,775 101,800 -58.0%

Panama 33,723 58,921 -42.8%

Korea 21,686 30,751 -29.5%

Pakistan 16,435 11,672 40.8%

Australia 15,992 15,063 6.2%

UAE 15,735 12,415 26.7%

Singapore 11,710 18,600 -37.0%

All Others 62,582 110,791 -43.5%

Total 6,106,266 5,313,018 14.9%

Source: American Institute for International Steel, 7/14/12; in tons; as of July, 2012

Source: World Steel Association, 7/12

Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization, June 2012


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Table 5: U.S. Steel Exports by Region, YTD 2012

Region YTD 12 YTD 11 % ChgNAFTA 4,790,605 4,051,877 18.2%Non NAFTA W. Hemisphere 572,982 470,589 21.8%

EU 295,584 235,201 25.7%

Africa 61,284 48,245 27.0%

Total Asia 347,655 458,060 -24.1%

Total 6,106,266 5,313,018 14.9%

Source: American Institute for International Steel, 7/14/12; in tons; as of July, 2012

Table 6: EU Economic & Steel Market Outlook, 2010-2013(f)

2010 2011 2012 (e) 2013 (f) GDP 2.1% 1.5% -0.2% 1.1%Private consumption 0.8% 0.1% -0.4% 0.5%

Government consumption 0.8% -0.1% -0.1% -0.3%Investment 0.7% 1.3% -1.9% 1.7%Invest in mechanical equipment 4.9% 3.3% -2.0% 1.8%Investment in construction -3.6% -0.9% -2.8% 0.1%Exports 11.0% 6.1% 2.5% 4.5%Imports 9.8% 3.4% 0.7% 3.6%Unemployment rate 9.6% 9.5% 10.2% 10.4%Inflation 1.9% 3.1% 2.4% 1.8%Industrial production 7.5% 3.3% -1.3% 1.9%

Source: EUROFER, July 2012

Table 7: Turkish Rebar Exports by Country, May 2012 & YTD

Country May'12 May'11 YTD 12 YTD 11 Iraq 106,953 59,407 475,336 313,217Saudi Arabia 105,527 27,835 255,747 109,114Egypt 75,827 9,002 224,521 78,711UAE 75,441 93,052 412,296 687,685Israel 54,696 44,607 204,785 130,500Canada 51,516 30,028 104,449 94,647

Yemen 45,923 -- 213,223 107,302US 29,398 36,840 269,694 171,128Ethiopia 24,559 12,585 154,685 56,640Turkmenistan 24,187 9,760 60,429 39,513

Source: SteelOrbis.com, 7/6/12; in tonnes

Steel Industry Update (ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright 2012 by Locker Associates, Inc. Allrights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. Locker Associates, Inc., 225 Broadway Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.


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Source: London Metal Exchange, July 2012; US $ per tonne

Graph 4: LME Steel Billet Price, 2009 to 2012 YTD

Source: London Metal Exchange, July 2012; US $ per tonne

Gra h 3: IP Manufacturin /LME Index, Januar 2008 Ma 2012


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Steel Mill Products: US Imports, May & Year-to-Date, 2012

Imports: Country of Origin Month of May Year-to-Date (000 net tons) 2012 2011 % Chg 2012 2011 % ChgCanada.. 514 591 -13.0% 2,545 2,582 -1.4%Mexico 205 286 -28.3% 1,073 1,404 -23.6%Other W. Hemisphere.. 311 406 -23.4% 1,939 1,251 55.0%European Union 504 483 4.3% 2,318 1,830 26.7%Other Europe*.. 424 369 14.9% 2,202 1,131 94.7%

Asia. 1,012 720 40.6% 4,519 3,227 40.0%Oceania. 76 98 -22.4% 176 447 -60.6%

Africa.. 17 11 54.5% 39 69 -43.5%Total 3,064 2,964 3.4% 14,812 11,940 24.1%Imports: Customs District Atlantic Coast 454 456 -0.4% 1,981 1,562 26.8Gulf Coast/Mexican Border 1,427 1,167 22.3% 7,249 5,003 44.9Pacific Coast. 508 589 -13.8% 2,506 2,360 6.2Gr Lakes/Canadian Border 660 726 -9.1% 2,981 2,918 2.2Off Shore 15 25 -40.0% 95 97 -2.1

Source: AISI; *includes Russia Update #276

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Locker Associates Steel Track: Spot Prices

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2012 78% 81% 80% 81% 79%

2011 73% 75% 75% 74% 73%

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Email: [email protected] | Website: www.lockerassociates.com

Locker Associates, Inc.LOCKER ASSOCIATES is a business-consulting firm that specializes in enhancing thecompetitiveness of businesses and industries on behalf of unions, corporate and governmentclients. By combining expert business and financial analysis with a sensitivity to labor issues,the firm is uniquely qualified to help clients manage change by:

leading joint labor/management business improvement initiatives;facilitating ownership transitions to secure the long-term viability of a business;conducting strategic industry studies to identify future challenges and opportunities;representing unions in strategic planning, workplace reorganization and bankruptcyformulating business plans for turnaround situations; andperforming due diligence for equity and debt investors.

Over the last 28 years, the firm has directed over 225 projects spanning manufacturing,transportation, distribution and mining industries. Typical projects involve in-depth analysis of afirms ma rket, financial and operating performance on behalf of a cooperative labor-management effort. Locker Associates also produces a widely read monthly newsletter, Steel Industry Update that circulates throughout the U.S. and Canadian steel industry.

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prepare CWA for nationwide contract negotiations with AT&T IBT-Supervalu (2010): assist union and management to identify major operational problems

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world metallurgical coal market for a large metallurgical coal producer

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steel industry update #276

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