THE FORGOTTEN SUMMER: Does the offer of college counseling the summer after high school graduation mitigate attrition among college-intending students?

Karen D. ArnoldBoston College School of Education

Benjamin L. Castleman Harvard Graduate School of Education (And Lindsay Page, Center for Education Policy Research, Harvard University)

Research made possible by generous funding from the Bill & MelindaGates Foundation and the Spencer Foundation. The views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect those of the funders.

The post-high school summer: An ideal time to increase college access for low-income HS grads?2

0

0.2

0.4

0.60.59

0.410.470.45

0.260.32

Treatment (n=80)

Cost: $200/student

Sample: class of ‘08 graduates from seven small high schools in Providence

*

****

Generalizability of results to mainstream school settings?

Intervention feasible at a larger scale?

Arnold et al. qualitative study: Lack of support summer attrition among college-intending HS

graduates?

Magnitude of the summer attrition problem3

ELS:2002:10-20% melt

Southeast district:22% melt

Southwest district:

44% melt

Boston, MA:21% melt

Providence:33% melt

The challenge and opportunity of summer

Unanticipated costs (e.g. health insurance) that affect students’ HC investments (Becker, 1964)

Difficulty interpreting tuition bill

Difficulty accessing/completing required paperwork

Lack of access to professional guidance (Arnold et al., 2009)

Students have signaled a strong intention to enroll

Summer barriers more easily targeted than other problems?

Students more responsive to outreach/support?

Ample supply of counselors to staff outreach efforts

Informational barriers

to enrollment(Avery and Kane, 2004;

Bettinger et al, 2010; Dynarski and Scott-Clayton, 2006)

Advantages of summer

intervention

4

Are students making optimal decisions not to enroll in college?

Experimental interventions to mitigate summer melt

5

Boston, MA Fulton County

Time period Summer 2011 Summer 2011

Site Boston college access organization

6 traditional high schools

Target population

Scholarship applicants from 42 Boston public high

schools

Sample of HS graduates who indicated their

intent to enroll in college

Staff Financial aid advisors

High school counselors

Location Central office High schools

N (Total) 927 1446

The treatment6

ACCESS advisors advertised the availability of summer support to all students in the sample prior to

HS graduation

Treatment group:Received proactive

outreach from an advisor at several points during

the summer

Control group:Did not receive proactive

outreach, but received same level of advising if initiated

contactAdvisors:• Reviewed aid packages with students• Lobbied for additional aid; evaluated

loans• Helped access their my.college.edu

page• Helped complete required paperwork• Supported with social/emotional issues

Information given to studentsUMass-Boston

7

Sample characteristics

LDS applicantsFemale 65%

Black 32%

Hispanic 24%

White 9%

Free/reduced lunch 78%

Submitted Student Aid Report only 18%Submitted SAR & award letter 68%Submitted neither document 14%Intend to enroll at a public inst. 48%Intend to enroll at a four-year inst. 80%N 927Notes:• Race/ethnicity and intended institution information missing for 7 percent

of Boston sample; free/reduced lunch information missing for 24 percent of Boston sample

11

Difference between treatment and control at baseline (t-statistic)

BostonFemale -0.02

(-0.56)Black -0.02

(-0.91)Hispanic 0.01

(0.48)White 0.01

(0.30)Free/reduced lunch

0.03(1.06)

Submitted SAR

0.01(0.35)

Submitted SAR and award letter

0.01(0.28)

Submitted neither

-0.01(-0.42)

Completed the FAFSA

--

*p<0.10 **p<0.05 ***p<0.01 Notes:• Differences account for within team/school

randomization

12

Descriptive results: Percent of students that communicated or met with an advisor

13

Communi-cation

Meeting0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% 76%

51%

4% 2%

TreatmentControl

Experimental results: impact on on-time enrollment14

0.500.600.700.800.901.00

0.79 0.830.74 0.76

TreatmentControl

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f on

-tim

e

en

rollm

en

t

*

* Statistically significant

*

BOSTON QUALITATIVE STUDY: RESEARCH QUESTIONS

• What is happening in the lives of students during the post-high school summer that affects their college-transition behaviors and feelings?

 

• How is college affordability affecting students’ feelings about college and their planning? How does the intervention affect their feelings and behaviors around affordability?

 

• How do students and advisors experience what is happening within the intervention and perceive its effects on college transition behaviors and feelings? 

Major Findings

Appropriate, effective content “I guess without [college access programs] I

don’t think I would have survived this process. My family and friends have given me support, but not the support that I feel like ACCESS has given me. I’ve had them walk me through the whole college process.” (student)

Central focus on financing college “I thought I only had to pay, like $600 after all

those scholarships. But it turns out I have to pay, like, another thousand, and [ACCESS advisor] helped me realize that. And I was, ‘So what do I do? What do I do?’ And she was really helpful.” (student)

16

Major Findings

Student take-up is challenging“It’s hard, you know. You don’t want to be, like,

stalking the student.” (advisor) Personal and family issues challenge

students “Financial aid is the biggest issue, obviously,

because it comes from other issues. They’ll all connect, but at the end of the day, you can’t even begin to address those things unless you address those emotional or other issues that are going on that are not so much money or the bill or the filling out the form.” (advisor)

Tension between encouragement and realism “I was playing the role of dream crusher.”

(advisor)

17

Intervention Levels: Chutes and Ladders

Anticipatory Socialization(picking classes, buying books, choosing major, seeking work-study

job, considering extracurriculars, talking to roommate, joining college Facebook)

 Logistics/information

(entrance counseling, understanding bills and documents, filling out paperwork, waiving health insurance, completing promissory note)

 Financing

(understanding gap, searching and applying for new funding sources,

appealing financial aid package)

 Postsecondary Plan

(re-deciding whether and where to go to college)Access Factors> Turbulence

Success Factors < Turbulence

Summer intervention vs. additional grant aid?

19

Summer intervention costs paid regardless of whether students enroll; grant aid costs contingent on enrollment

$1,000 grant aid 3 – 6 percentage point increase in enrollment (Deming and Dynarski, 2009)

Baseline enrollment in Boston: 74%; N in Treatment: 406

Summer intervention: ~$88,000

($200/student * 406 students)

Additional grant aid: ~$270,000

($833/student * .79 * 406 students)

Summer intervention 3x more cost-effective than add’l. grant aid

Cost to increase enrollment by five percentage points

Summer 2012 interventions20

Eight urban districts in the Northeast, Southeast, Southwest, and Mountain

WestTreatment #1:School counselors reach out to students over the summer

Treatment #2:Digital messaging campaign to students with reminders of key summer tasks

Treatment #3:College peer mentors reach out to students over the summer

ACCESS sites in Boston, Springfield, and Lawrence will focus on the peer mentor

intervention

Summary21

College-intending students encounter a host of informational barriers during the post-high school summer that can prevent them from matriculating

The summer after high school may be an ideal time for policy intervention to increase college access

Summer outreach has a substantial effect on students’ college decisions

Summer intervention appears to be considerably more cost effective than offering additional grant aid

Do you have a summer melt problem?

What information needed to find out? How intervene?

funders? providers? target student population? nature of intervention: high touch/low

touch? how maximize take-up?

What information need to assess results?

22

Your next step?

How will you identify college-intending high school seniors?

Given realistic staff and funding possibilities, how can your school or organization creatively follow up with college-intending students over the summer?

What single action can you undertake this summer?

23

Acknowledgements

Boston: Erin Cox, Alex Chewning, Bob Giannino-Racine, and the ACCESS advising team

Fulton County: Korynn Schooley, Chris Matthews, Niveen Vosler

Bridget Terry Long and Chris Avery, Harvard Univ.

Richard Murnane, John Willett, and Alberto Abadie, Harvard Univ.

Strategic Data Project at the Center for Education Policy Research

24

Thanks!

Karen Arnold – karen.arnold@bc.edu

Ben Castleman – castle@fas.harvard.edu

25