Space Weather System-Impact Products

SSA Environmental Effects Fusion System- (SEEFS) Overview –

For NESSC14 Oct 2009

Stephen QuigleyAFRL/RVBX

Outline

• General Overview

• FY04-06 Products

• Future Products

• Input Data Requirements

• Status

SEEFSOverview - General

• SEEFS is an AFSPC sponsored program

• SEEFS = Products + Architecture + Database

• SEEFS combines environmental info with system specs and thresholds to produce system-impact products outputs

• SEEFS was designed to provide real-time support

• SEEFS is situated as a pseudo stand-alone system with multiple target integrations being pursued– Distributed Mission Operations – Space (DMO-S): For training/exercises

– Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA/SWOC): 3/5 on SMC “ops” Testbed– Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC): for DoD asset ops SSA– Maui High Performance Computer Center (MHPCC): For distributed processing

• And others that can be considered– Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)– NASA

• SEEFS is expected to be a net-centric application

• SEEFS to be separated into environmental and system-impact pieces

SEEFSOverview - Prototypes Completed (FY04-05)

Products Delivered to SMC from AFRL

• SoRBE Solar Radio Burst Effects

• RAC II Radar Auroral Clutter

• RadScint Radar Scintillation

• SatScint Satcom Scintillation

• Char/D Satellite Charge/Discharge

– The current version of SEEFS is prototype

– An operational version is nearly complete at SMC SYAG

– SEEFS output is in graphical and consolidated text formats

• Conout.txt allows for machine-to-machine (MtM) uses

– SEEFS includes nowcast & forecast capabilities

– SEEFS includes confidence levels

• Solar Radio Burst Effects (SoRBE) Product

• Requires solar radio data– Currently RSTN

• Requires radar & SATCOM receiver specs & thresholds

SoRBEThe Problem - RFI

SEEFS Products – SoRBEMap View Product – SATCOM Example

The Overhead or Map View product provides all relevant solar RFI info for a given radar or SATCOM receiver site, with 3-D effects projected onto a 2-D map.

SATCOM solar RFI effects are determined by comparison of solar output with receiver thresholds provided directly.

Confidence Levels60-99%

SEEFS Products – SoRBEScope View Product – Radar Example

The Scope or Az/El plot view product provides all relevant solar RFI info for a given radar or SATCOM receiver site, with 3-D effects plotted onto Az vs. El and Az vs. Range plots.

Radar solar RFI effects are determined by comparison of solar output with range-dependent receiver thresholds calculated for each site using the radar range equation. A single/standard m2 target size (RCS) is assumed.

SEEFS Products – SoRBEConfidence Levels

ESTIMATED CONFIDENCE LEVELS

LOCATION CONFIDENCEOutside the Fan of Operation 99%Inside the Fan of Operation

Night Time (for the site) 99%Day Time (for the site)

Main Lobe Effect 51%Side/Back Lobe Effect 70%

No Lobes Effect 75%

The initial SoRBE product has confidence level estimates dependent on the fan of operation, local time, solar activity and input data quality, amount of frequency interpolation, and receiver lobe configuration. Confidence level information is shown in pop-up table format.

Confidence Levels60-99%

• Radar Auroral Clutter (RAC) Product

• Requires clutter-effective auroral & SAPS data– Currently via Kp driven boundaries from ground

magnetometer or DMSP SSJ/4 data• Requires radar specs• Uses Hardy Auroral Oval and Electron Density

models; also uses SAPS model based on John Foster’s SAPS climatology/statistics

Radar Auroral ClutterThe Problem

• Auroral “clutter” is feedback on radar due to dynamic fields and precipitating energetic particles in the aurora and sub-auroral polarization stream (SAPS).

• It occurs where:– the radar signal beam and

geomagnetic field lines are perpendicular

– and auroral particle currents or SAPS strength is substantial

• It can result in false observations of targets (1 obs), tracks (2+ obs), even anomalous launch or impacts (enough obs for the calculation)

Magnetic field lines (grey) with auroral precipitation (green) and sub-auroral polarization stream (purple)

Straight-line radar signal propagation

10,000 False Targets in 3 hours - Max at 0o aspect angle +/- 4o.

SEEFS Products – RACMap View Product

The Overhead or Map View product provides all relevant auroral and SAPS clutter information for a given radar site, with 3-D effects projected onto a 2-D map.

SEEFS Products – RACMap View (Zoomed) Product

The enlarged Map View of RAC provides 3-D information via the addition of elevation angle contour lines.

SEEFS Products – RACScope View Product

The Scope or Az/El plot view product provides all relevant auroral and SAPS clutter information for a given radar site, with 3-D effects plotted onto Az vs. El and Az vs. Range plots.

SEEFS Products – RACConfidence Levels

ESTIMATED CONFIDENCE LEVELS

LOCATION CONFIDENCEOutside the Fan of Operation 99%Inside the Fan of Operation

Inside the PCZ 78%Outside the PCZ 40%

The initial RAC product has confidence level estimates dependent on the fan of operation, location with respect to the potential clutter zone (PCZ), input data type, and input data age. Confidence level information is shown in a pop-up box in the above example.

Confidence Levels68-99%

• Satellite & Radar Scintillation (SatScint & RadScint) Products

– Requires scintillation & indices (Kp & SSN) data• Currently via SCINDA obs and Kp/SSN

– Requires SATCOM & radar receiver specs & thresholds– Uses SCINDA models for real-time obs applications in

SatScint; uses WBMOD for climatology applications in SatScint and RadScint

ScintillationThe Problem

SATCOMReceiver

RadarReceiver

• Ionospheric density gradients can distort a SATCOM or radar signal traversing it to/from a satellite or target

Ionosphere

Ionospheric Scintillation Aurora or “Bubbles”

SEEFS Products – SatScintMap View w/Confidence Link

Confidence Levels

47-92%

After choosing the Geosynchronous SATCOM satellite and frequency of interest, the Map View for SatScint depicts scintillation-based signal fading for ground-level locations that might communicate with that satellite.

Confidence levels for this product are depicted as a correlated pop-up image, with values highly dependent on input data age and distance of a point from the scintillation sensors.

SEEFS Products – SatScintPoint-to-Point (PtP) Product w/confidence

Confidence Levels

58-95%

Link Thresholds

------- Severe

------- Moderate

Scintillation

Legends

Real Time Model

Climo Model

Point-to-Point Link: TestSat1 (150E) to GroundSiteX (12N, 100E)

PtPAfter choosing the Geosynch SATCOM satellite and freq and a specific ground SATCOM site’s location, SatScint’s PtP time plot depicts scintillation-based signal fading for that specific satellite-to-ground link.

Confidence levels for this product are plotted below the main plot.

Auroral Scintillation Boundary

Observation of RCS scintillation at the Fylingdales radar.

ScintillationThe Problem – Radar – DoD Example

SEEFS Products – RadScintMap View Product

The Overhead or Map View product provides relevant climatology model-based predictions of ionospheric scintillation-caused dB fading for a given radar site’s returns.

The user chooses from various operating frequency and altitude slice options; results are projected onto a 2-D map.

SEEFS Products – RadScintAz/El Polar & Scope View Plot Products

The Az/El Polar and Scope View products provide for alternative “3-D” views of the same radar scintillation predictions.

The user still chooses from various operating frequency and altitude slice options.

The RadScint product has confidence level estimates dependent on the altitude, elevation angle, and input data age. Confidence level information is shown in a separately linked image in the above example.

Confidence Levels

30 - 75%

SEEFS Products – RadScintConfidence Levels

• Satellite Charge/Discharge (Char/D) Products

• Requires magnetospheric particle data & indices – Currently via GOES, LANL, ground-based neutron monitor,

POES BI and Kp• Requires satellite orbit, specs & thresholds• Uses Magnetopheric Specification Model (MSM), Koons-Gorney

Energetic Electron Model, Korth MPA Data Model, CRRES Electron Radiation Belt Model, Hardy Auroral Model, and SOPA/GOES Survey Model, along with NASA’s Spacecraft Charging Analysis Program (NASCAP 2K)

Satellite Charge/DischargeThe Problem

• Under certain conditions, energetic electrons can buildup on or in a satellite, resulting in satellite charging.

• If charging is substantial AND a discharge mechanism exists, the resulting discharge can cause physical damage and/or phantom commands to the satellite.

• Surface charging takes place rapidly, and is due primarily to eV – KeV electron fluxes.

• Deep (internal) charging takes hours to days, and is due to MeV electron fluxes/fluences.

Satellite Char/D ProductsSurface Charging – Charging/Voltage Plot

The Surface Char/D product is comprised of three output plots.

The first (1) shows the predicted surface charging state of the satellite.

The second (2) shows the predicted surface discharge state. For the initial product, only entry or exit from eclipse is used as a discharge mechanism.

The third (3) shows the overall confidence level of the previous two combined.

1.

3.

2.

Satellite Char/D ProductsDeep Charging - Multi-plot

The Deep Char/D product provides a single, multi-plot output showing the predicted states/ conditions for (1) deep charging, (2) deep discharging and the (3) confidence level, all on one image.

• Included in all products– Text output file of all information

– Best allowance for MTM

• To be combined– All radar effects products

– All SATCOM effects products

– All satellite effects products• Ultimately an automated satellite

anomaly assessment product/report in near real time

• Already integrated– All SEEFS product effects are combined into a single, higher-level “Decision

Aid” that quantifies & qualifies the total effect of all product output on a given asset (site) and mission (grouping of assets).

– This is the SEEFS Decision Aid product (examples on following slides)• Allows for any combination of assets (radar, SATCOM, satellite) to build a mission• Incorporates business rules for site and mission status• Provides stoplight charts with product drill-downs

SEEFS ProductsCombinations & Decision Aids

SEEFS ProductsDecision Aid – 1 (Top Menu)

SEEFS ProductsDecision Aid – 2 (Mission Selection)

SEEFS ProductsDecision Aid – 3 (Global View)

SEEFS ProductsDecision Aid – 4 (Stoplight Chart)

- Individual asset effects levels will be based on asset/system specific thresholds.

- Combined assets (“Global View”) effect levels will be based on specified mission thresholds.

SEEFS ProductsDecision Aid – 5 (Products Drill-Down)

SEEFS ProductsDecision Aid – 6 (Lower Product Views)

SEEFSStatus - Development & Deliveries

• Current SEEFS effort is to operationalize the existing products and link them programmatically

• Spiral 1 (prototype SoRBE & Architecture)– Delivered to SSA test bed & Ops Eval done – Mar 2005

• Spiral 2A (All 5 prototypes & DA & new Architecture/DB) – Delivered and Ops Eval completed – Mar 2006 – Delivered to MHPCC for potential parallelization– Delivered to Portion to DMO-S (Schriever AFB)

• Spiral 2B (operational version of all)– Code rewrites and requirements docs work finishing up NOW– SMC/SYAG ops testbed deliveries to AFWA

• Initial radar products (RAC, SoRBE, RadScint) to testbed in Aug 2008• Second delivery (SatScint & Char/D) to testbed expected in Dec 2009

– Return (re-written “baseline”) delivery to AFRL/RVBX ~ Jan 2010

SEEFS Operational EvaluationMarch 2006

SEEFSFuture Work

• Depending on requirements and funding, future SEEFS work will focus on one or more of the following:– Validation of current products: note JHU/APL for RAC– Upgrades to current products: SoRBE, RAC, RadScint,

SatScint, Char/D, and the Decision Aid– New product development, especially low-hanging fruit…

• High-Energy Proton Effects as a Satellite Single Event Upsets and Events (SEUPE) product

– Includes existing South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) maps

• GPS Dual-Frequency Errors (Scintillation)• Meteor Effects (ME) - Impact, Sighting, Radar Clutter, Bolides• Tropospheric Effects• Man-Made Environment Effects (Nukes, engine burns, METOX, etc)

– Data Fusion

The End