Steve Blake, CEO, WAMSI

14 Mar 2012

Overview of talk Climate variability drivers in marine environment WAMSI 1 climate-related work Building climate variability/change work into WAMSI 2 Ongoing challenges in WA

Caveat: WAMSI fully acknowledges the broad spectrum of marine, coastal and climate science activities underway in WA Acknowledgement: WAMSI Partner Researchers for some of the slides

ENSO IOD

Leeuwin Current System

Driven by:

North to South (high to low) pressure gradient

Remote forcing of winds over the Pacific & Indian Oceans

Planetary waves that propagate into the region

Physical Environment

Important factors Currents Temperatures Winds Surface Waves Storm activity Relation to forcing from large-scale modes of climate variability ENSO, IOD

Slide: Evan Weller, CSIRO

Climate variability over a range of spatial & temporal scales – the natural rhythms!

Extreme

Mean

Inter-annual variability

Decadal scale variability

Seasonal variability

Seasonal variability

Astronomical Tidal Cycles: 4.4 yr cycle 8.8 yr perigee cycle 18.6 yr nodal cycle

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Slide Courtesy Cai Wenju, CSIRO

Drivers: Science Issues

Diurnal cycle physics SST trends Surface fluxes Skin/bulk SST Change in T/S Biogeochemical links Seasonal cycle (subduction) Marine/ocean/coastal predictability Subtropical over-turning Intraseasonl Variation (MJO) Bay of Bengal convection Indian Ocean Dipole Moisture transport to ST ENSO → IO NW cloud bands Western

boundary currents

diurnal 10-20 d 1, 2, 4 yr

day(s) seasons decadal

SOCIO Nov 2000

Drivers: Societal Issues

Agriculture (land, rainfall) Storm surges Water Management Fisheries Land use change Maritime forecasts Floods Safety & Rescue Drought/mitigation Rainfall trends Environ. Mgmt Haze Transport Tourism ... … Retail Industrial operations New technology/industry Defence ← Research and knowledge → ← Financial sector →

diurnal 10-20 d 1, 2, 4 yr

day(s) seasons decadal

SOCIO Nov 2000

Brief history of WAMSI 1 Continuation of approach first started in SRFME

Context: Lack of regional contextual information; One third of Australian coast; A need to develop a critical mass of expertise & skilled people; Growing pains [Industry, population, tourism etc]; More extremes of climate variability

Western Australia’s Maritime Estate

WAMSI 1 Themes and Nodes

Ocean Systems Forecasting

Biodiversity Conservation

Natural Resource Management

Node 1 Marine

ecosystems science

Node 2 Climate

processes, predictability and impacts

Node 3 Managing

and conserving the marine

estate

Node 4 Sustainable ecosystems

for sustainable

fisheries

Node 5 Marine

biodiscovery, biotechnology

and aquaculture

Node 6 Marine

science for offshore and

coastal engineering

Integrated and collaborative research

Oceans Systems Forecasting Downscaled Nested Hydrodynamic Models for Western

Australia • Oceanic -> shelf (Leeuwin Current) -> lagoon

(Ningaloo and Marmion) Downscaled climate change projections and predicted

year-to-year variations in the marine environment of WA Outcomes – increased understanding of • transport mechanisms; and • key drivers of variations in WA marine environment

(ENSO/IOD)

Dr Ming Feng, CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship

Forecast seasonal changes in large-scale oceanic structure off the WA coast and Indian Ocean (2.1, BoM) Identify large-scale variations in the ocean and their effect on coastal and shelf-marine ecosystems (2.2, CSIRO) Predict future changes in the eastern Indian and Sub-Antarctic Southern Ocean and the Leeuwin Current (2.2, CSIRO) Assess the impacts of climate change at Ningaloo Reef (2.3, AIMS)

Sea surface temperatures off the WA west coast have warmed by 0.8°C

Pearce and Feng 2007 Temperature trend in the Indian Ocean

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are observed to propagate along WA coast

Feng, Meyers, Pearce, Wijffels 2003

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

Nino34

West Indian Ocean

East Indian Ocean

Dipole Index

Niño3.4 EIO WIO

POAMA predictions of occurrence of El Niño and IOD: 1982-2007

• Able to predict El Niño ~3 seasons in advance.

• IO skill much lower than Pacific

• IOD prediction limited to forecast start times after June and then only for ~1 season lead.

Eddy energy in the Leeuwin Current is strong in La Nina years and weaker in El Nino years

Southern Oscillation Index

Eddy Kinetic Energy

Feng, Waite, Thompson 2009

Downscaling of future climate scenarios

OFAM [~10km]

Ningaloo (2.5 -- <1.0 km)

Slide: R. Brinkman

2010/11 La Nina “Heatwave” February 2011 large rise in SST caused by the combined effects of long term warming trends, a

decadal strengthening of the Leeuwin Current & one of the strongest La Nina events in history

immediate effect - fish kills, coral bleaching

Learnings: • Baseline datasets • Bring together WA

science community at short notice

• Improved capacity for fisheries & marine parks management

Decadal prediction – a new frontier of climate research

Slide: Lisa Goddard

Fisheries Management West Coast Bioregion research

Spatial dynamics of iconic demersal fish species with larval drift patterns

Outcome - possible change in management of West Coast Demersal Scalefish Fishery

Statewide recreational fishing survey Outcome – better understanding of long-

term drivers of recruitment, survivability, stocks, environmental effects & projected trends, to inform management of stocks

Images: DoF

Environmental effects on puerulus

1. SOI/Leeuwin Current (Fremantle sea level- FSL) 2. FSL/SST (Feb-Apr) - early larval phase (survival) 3. Storm (rain Jul-Nov) – late larval phase (advection EW) 4. Leeuwin Current (June-Dec) – late larval phase (advection N - S) 5. SST prior to spawning 6. Easterly winds moving early stage larvae offshore 7. Westerly winds at time of settlement 8. Current strength and direction 9. Wave strength and direction 10. Productivity (ChlA) 11. Eddy structure (correlated to FSL) 12. Indian Ocean Dipole

Slide: N. Caputi

Late-stage larvae (Puerulus)

Influence on the oceanic larval stages

Case Study – Western Rock Lobster Recruitment

Coastal sea level and the Leeuwin Current are highly correlated with ENSO and puerulus sett. ENSO used as a good prediction tool in the past for WA several fisheries but not 100% accurate i.e. 2008 (Pearce and Phillips, 1988; Caputi et al., 2001; 2003)

Adults

Slide: Evan Weller, CSIRO

Offshore & Coastal Engineering Effects of climate change on mean sea

level, astronomical tides, storm surge & wave climatology of SW WA • implications for management of coastal

facilities under climate change • Inundation & stability

Outcomes • Increased understanding of climate

change effects on coastal regions e.g. Peel-Harvey Inlet, Yanchep Lagoon

Image: stevemark

Image: compiled by Sarah Fretzer, Murdoch University

Changes in Extreme Sea Levels around Western Australia: 1900 to 2100

The Oceans Institute School of Environmental Systems Engineering

The University of Western Australia

Ivan Haigh, Matt Eliot, Chari Pattiaratchi

Sea Level Change (MSL)

Church and White (2006)

20 cm

20 cm

80 cm

IPCC (2007)

Rahmstorf (2007); Rahmstorf et al. (2007); Grinsted et al. (2009)

+100 cm

Annual Mean Fremantle Sea Level

Linear Trend: 1.54 mm yr-1

Changes in Extreme Sea Level 1. Direct change; Rise in MSL increases baseline;

2. Indirect Change; Rise in MSL alters water depth - changes propagation of tide & surge;

3. Changes in Storminess Variations in strength, frequency & tracks of weather systems

Source: I. Haigh (2010)

Changes in Extreme Sea Level

Time

Sea

Leve

l

Sea

Leve

l

Source: Hunter (2009)

Time

1. Direct 2. Indirect & 3. Storminess

‘MSL offset Method’

Source: I. Haigh (2010)

Caring for Our Country Project - Shark Bay Effects of Rising Water levels on the Faure Sill and Stromatolites:

700K/ 3 years – Predicting the likely impacts of climate variability/ SL rise on the Hamelin Pool stromatolites

WAMSI-led project: UWA, CSIRO, Curtin Oceanography, modeling, riverine inputs, ecological

responses, future predictions, community engagement

Source: UWA

Source: UWA

The broader “human” dimension Vulnerability to climate change depends on a balance

between environmental impacts and the community's capacity to adapt Source: CSIRO

Australia is likely to become warmer, with less rainfall and

more droughts in the south, uncertain rainfall changes in the north, more heatwaves, less snow, more fires, more heavy rainfall events and more intense cyclones Source: CSIRO

Tropics 2010/521: Barramundi 2010/524: Recreational fishers 2010/532: Biodiversity governance 2010/536: Tourism 2010/542: Blueprint 2010/554: Coral Trout 2010/565: Fisheries 2011/503: Knowledge

South East 2010/506: Monitoring species change 2010/510: Deep water 2010/532: Biodiversity governance 2010/533: Seabirds 2010/534: Oyster industry 2010/542: Blueprint 2010/564: Species reintroduction 2011/503: Knowledge 2010/040: Estuaries 2011/039: Fishery adaptation 2011/233: Supply chain South West

2010/535: Fisheries 2010/542: Blueprint 2011/503: Knowledge

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan for Marine Biodiversity and Resources – Projects funded through FRDC & FCCEE

Sustainable Livelihood Assessment (SLA)

• Collecting data regarding the assets associated with each type of capital – surveys – St Helens, Geraldton, Bowen

Human capital

Physical capital

Social capital

Natural capital

Financial capital

Skills, knowledge, Education Health Access to information

Assets (convertibility into cash) Saving Credit availability Insurance

Community groups Linkages between communities Exchange relationships Kinships

Fishing gear and boats

Processing equipment

Markets Transport

Housing Roads Jetties

Fish resources Water quality Biodiversity

H

F

S

P

N

Slide: S. Metcalf, A climate change adaptation blueprint for coastal regional communities

Community engagement – uptake & barriers

Ref: Building industry & community knowledge……..Jenny Shaw

Joining the initiatives – always a challenge

WAMSI 1 2006 - 2011

SRFME 2001 - 2006

IOCI

IOCI

Today

1998

Office of CCEE Greenhouse Office

Blue Carbon & Energy Efficiency etc DEC

Climate Change

Unit

NCCARF

WAMSI 2

………and many others!!

Opportunities in WAMSI 2+ New areas of focus:

Multiple-Use: Shark Bay WHA Pilbara Coast South Coast

Climate Change Capacity Building Marine Wildlife Dredging

Kimberley New Nodes?

Images: WAMSI & B.Wilson [top left]

Future challenges for WA 1. Poor cousin to the E. States [inclusion on national initiatives] 2. Budget support for the key “climate variability” baselines 3. Joining the “bits of science” [aka: NCCARF, IOCI, WAMSI etc] 4. Labour/ capacity/ skills, esp. in social sciences 5. Getting the climate variability/change likely impacts

communicated 6. Practical adaptation strategies – at the individual community

level

Elements of Success