stock guide spring 2013 - marketsmithstock guide spring 2013 in this stock guide, we shift our...
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Technical STock ReSeaRch: See which STockS aRe Ready To bloom
Quarterly Stock GuideSpring 2013
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Need help narrowing 7,000 stocks down to the 250 poised for growth?
MarketSmith Growth 250 is a weekly online publication of premium growth stock ideas developed to save you valuable research time by conducting the initial screening for you.
Growth 250:
• Uses 30 distinct screens based on the criteria past winning stocks showed before they made massive moves.
• Was designed by successful O’Neil portfolio managers using William O’Neil’s winning investment strategy.
• Provides a supplemental list of stocks breaking down to use for proper selling and shorting strategies.
Stock GuideSpring 2013
In this Stock Guide, we shift our attention to the technical analysis of chart patterns. The related screens were designed to help you find stocks with the strongest technical characteristics and the highest likelihood of completing a familiar chart pattern. Learning to spot and evaluate these patterns is essential to timing your buy-points and finding stocks with the greatest potential for gains.
While the stock market struggles to maintain the healthy uptrend that began late last year, many stocks will begin to develop chart patterns. While chart patterns form during periods of market weakness, they act as the signal that an individual stock is ready to resume its uptrend and potentially run up in price. Keep in mind, this current rally has been running since November 2012, and many stocks are extended in price and risky to buy. Using the technically oriented screens in this Stock Guide will help you find stocks that display lower risk and secondary entry points so you can maximize your participation in the uptrend—with a reasonable risk-reward ratio.
To aid your study of chart patterns, we’ve included information for creating and using a model book of top-quality stock chart patterns. By comparing the stocks you find in your screen results against these “models,” you can evaluate the quality of the patterns you find.
If you’ve been looking for an opportunity to learn how to incorporate technical analysis into your research routine, this is the Stock Guide for you.
Best Returns,
Your MarketSmith Team
MarketSmith Members: Don’t forget to check-out our latest webinars. You’ll find new timely topics each month and a robust archive of investment research subjects. Go to MarketSmith»Learn»Webinar
Stock Guide Chart Legend
1. 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate Over 20% Per Year
2. Company Name
3. Industry Group Classification
4. Datablock Containing the Following Information:
a. Short Interest Value and Percent Change
b. Options Availability and Exchange
c. 50-Day Ratio of Daily Up Volume to Daily Down Volume
d. Ex-Dividend Date
e. Current Yield
5. Ticker or Trading Symbol
6. Top 5 Stocks in Group
7. Primary Exchange
8. Industry Group Relative Strength Rating
9. Common Shares Outstanding (in Millions)
10. Web Address
11. Active stock (NASDAQ only)
12. Floating Supply (in Millions)
13. Datablock Containing the Following Information:
a. 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate
b. Best RS Line & Rating Factor
c. Earnings Per Share Rank (EPS Rank)
d. Current Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio
e. High and Low Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratios
14. Datablock Containing the Following Information:
a. Debt Percentage
b. New CEO in Last 2 Years
c. Timeliness Rating
d. Accumulation/Distribution Rating
e. SMR Rating
15. Average Daily Volume Over Last 50 Trading Days
16. Datablock Containing the Following Information:
a. Stock Price Relative to Book Value
b. Inventory Turnover
c. Research and Development % of Total Sales
d. Return on Equity Percentage
e. Cash Flow Per Share From Operations
17. Convertible Issues
18. Warrants Outstanding
19. Closing Price
20. % Off High
21. Datablock Containing the Following Information
a. Mutual Fund Sponsorship
b. Bank Sponsorship
c. Management Ownership
d. Alpha
e. Beta
22. Composite Rating
23. Arithmetic Price Scale
24. Key High and Low Price Points
25. 50-Day Moving Average Price Line
26. 200-Day Moving Average Price Line
27. Relative Strength Rating
28. Relative Strength Compared to S&P 500
29. Article in Major Publication
30. *Indicates 2nd Highest Weekly Volume in Last 12 Months
31. *Indicates Highest Weekly Volume in Last Year or Volume 100% or More Above ADV
32. Volume Scale
33. Earnings % Change
34. Qtrly EPS Compared to EPS Same Qtr Last Year (<> denotes pretax, non-recurring items included)
35. Insider Buying/Selling
36. Qtrly Sales Compared to Sales Same Qtr Last Year
37. 50-Day Average Daily Volume
38. High and Low P/E Ratio for the Quarter
39. Dividend Change
40. Security Announcement
41. Cash Dividend for the Quarter
42. *Indicates Earnings Expected to Report Within 4 Weeks
43. *Indicates Earnings Were Reported in Last 2 Weeks
44. Volume Peaks (in Hundreds)
45. Stock Dividend or Split
46. Daily High, Low, and Closing Prices
47. Line Indicates Beginning of Calendar Quarter
48. Indicator for Canadian Dollars
49. Datablock Containing the Following Information:
a. Fiscal Year End
b. Annual Operating Earnings (<> denotes pretax, non-recurring items included)
c. Calendar Year High/Low Prices
d. Earnings Per Share Estimates
e. EPS Estimates % Change
f. Estimate Revision
50. Business Summary
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
17 31AUG
14 28SEP
11 25OCT 9 23
NOV 6 20
DEC 4 18
QTR 1
JAN 10 1 15 29
FEB12 26
MAR12 26
QTR 2
APR 9 23
MAY 7 21
JUN 4 18
QTR 3
JUL 2
XYZ CORP (XYZ) NASDAQ*BLDG-A/C & HEATING PRDS aaon.com
17.1 SHRS / 12.2 FLT / AVG VOL 85,500 $24.13(OH ) -4%
MANUFACTURES HEATING, VENTILATION AND AIR CONDITION EQUIP- MENT FOR THE INDUSTRIAL/CONSTRUCTION/COMMERCIAL MARKETS.
5/10 TO REPURCHASE 5% OF COMMON STOCK OUTSTANDING.
SHORT INT 24.3 DAYS -3%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.0
CBOE
EX-DIV 6/ 8YIELD 1.5%
GROWTH RATE +31%EARNINGS STAB 13EPS RANK 63PE 16 ( 1.0XS&P)5 YR PE 9- 31
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS B
7/10
ACC/DIST DSMR RATING B
3.50 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 7.5XR&D 13.6%RET ON EQUITY 26%CASH FLOW $2
FUNDS 40%BANKS 8%MGMT 29%ALPHA 0.03BETA 0.98
COMPOSITE RATINGIPO 7/7/07 $ 5.00 (C) (W) 82
EPS DUE 8/10
PRICESCALE
GROUP REL STR 82 RS EPSSmithAO AOS 81 95Watsco WSO 76 82Lennox LII 75 85
EARNINGS HI LO(DEC)$ $04 0.39 14 9
05 0.60 13 906 0.90 19 1107 1.22 23 1608 1.60 23 1209 1.62 22 1410 1.38 EST -15%11 1.62 EST +17%
«
QUARTER ENDED JUN 30, 09 0.43 VS 0.43 0% 68.6 VS 74.8 -8%$ 0.18 13X -- 9X
QUARTER ENDED SEP 30, 09 0.45 VS 0.47 -4% 58.5 VS 79.3 -26% N/A 13X -- 11X
QUARTER ENDED DEC 31, 09 0.36 VS 0.35 +3% 54.2 VS 60.2 -10%$ 0.18 12X -- 11X
QUARTER ENDED MAR 31, 10 0.30 VS 0.39 -23% 49.3 VS 64.0 -23% N/A 14X -- 12X
16
18
20
22
24
400 600 1000
VOLUME(00)
22.32
18.00
20.63
18.49 18.64
22.00
20.72
25.11
21.50
22.41
17704 5376
84
R S LINEVS SP500
CANADIANQTR 4
FORBES06/04/10DIV
INCPSO
2/1
* *
* *
ACTIVE
1 2 3 5 6 8 119 10 13 1514 16 17 18 19 20
21
4 7 12
23
24
25
26
27
28293031
32
33
35 3439 363840 3741
44
42
43
46
47
48
49
50
22
45
Table of ContentsStock Guide Legend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Market Charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Spring 2013 Screens*
Pullback Screen 5
Fleetcor Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FLT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Linkedin Corp Class A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .LNKD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Green Mtn Coffee Roastrs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .GMCR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Grifols Sa Ads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .GRFS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Alaska Air Group Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ALK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
TripAdvisor Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .TRIP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Tight Weekly Closes 9
Ecolab Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ECL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Mattel Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .MAT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Energy Transfer Eqty Lp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ETE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
J 2 Global Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . JCOM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Nexstar Broadcasting Grp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .NXST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Williams Sonoma Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .WSM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
RS Line Leading Price 13
Angie’s List Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ANGI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Medicines Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .MDCO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Boeing Co . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .BA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Hertz Global Holdings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .HTZ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Alkermes Plc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ALKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Acorda Therapeutics Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ACOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
MarketSmith Education Tips
Building a Digital Model Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on April 22, 2013.
Spring 2013marketsmith.com
4 Market Charts
NASDAQ COMPOSITECLOSE 3206.06
3085.40
2987.94
3196.93
2726.68
2810.80
2951.04
3105.36
50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
2750
2850
2950
3050
3150
3250
3350
DAILY VOLUME AND 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE
650 M
1 B
1.5 B
2.3 B
1952282282511281430162195217241027132915118420
APRMARFEBJAN 2013DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
S & P 500 INDEXCLOSE 1555.25
1415.32
1474.511470.96
1266.74
1396.56
1343.35
1398.11
1485.01
50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
1280
1330
1380
1430
1480
1530
1580
DAILY VOLUME AND 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE
250 M
500 M
850 M
1.4 B
1952282282511281430162195217241027132915118420
APRMARFEBJAN 2013DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
Visit marketsmith.com/learn/stockguide to load the criteria for this and other Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener.
All screen results are computer-generated and were run on April 22, 2013. This screen can also be found in the community section of marketsmith.com.
5
Pullback Screen
Look for stocks bouncing off their 50-day moving average, even as the market declines.
Historically, stocks on a healthy price climb will often pull
back to their 50-day moving average two to three times
during the life of their run. Pullbacks to the 50-day signal
that the stock is being supported by institutional buyers and
that there’s a good chance of strong price advances, when
the market resumes an uptrend.
Company Name (Symbol) Industry Group % Off High Page
Fleetcor Technologies (FLT) Finance-CrdtCard/PmtPr -6.95 6
Linkedin Corp Class A (LNKD) Internet-Content -6.44 6
Green Mtn Coffee Roastrs (GMCR) Wholesale-Food -9.14 7
Grifols Sa Ads (GRFS) Medical-Systems/Equip -3.51 7
Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK) Transportation-Airline -8.86 8
TripAdvisor Inc (TRIP) Internet-Content -6.91 8
Spring 2013marketsmith.com
6
*FLEETCOR TECHNOLOGIES(FLT) NYSE 81.2 SHRS / 38.2 FLT / AVG VOL835192 $73.44(OH -6%)FINANCE-CRDTCARD/PMTPR fleetcor.comGLOBAL PROVIDER OF SPECIALIZED PAYMENT PRODUCTS AND SERVICES TO COMMERCIAL FLEETS, OIL COMPANIES AND PETROLEUM MARKETERS
4/13 FLEETCOR TECHNOLOGIES OPERATING COMPANY LLC ACQUIRED ENTERPRISE BUSINESS UNIT OF TELENAV.
SHORT INT 2.2 DAYS +14%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.7EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +29%EARNINGS STAB 8EPS RANK 99PE 25 (1.8XS&P)5 YR PE 12 - 22
DEBT 53%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING A
6.64 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 30%CASH FLOW $3.33
FUNDS 27%BANKS 0%MGMT 38%ALPHA 0.21BETA 0.92
41.3039.08
78.87
33.73
43.06
49.86
97
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-OSO
PSO
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-OSO
PSO
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-OSO-O
PSO
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
PRICE SCALE
98COMPOSITE RATING(C)$23.00IPO 12/15/1007$ 0.76 $08 1.2109 1.1010 1.82 31 2411 2.17 37 2412 2.99 53 2913 3.67EST +23% ↑14 4.18EST +14% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LONtspdHdg NTSP 97 96PortRecov PRAA 91 96Euronet EEFT 89 68Visa V 79 96DiscoverFn DFS 79 86
GROUP REL STR 35 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.60 VS 0.47 +28%146.2 VS 111.0 +32%N/A 19X-- 14X
0.73 VS 0.57 +28%171.8 VS 134.2 +28%N/A 19X-- 15X
0.83 VS 0.56 +48%186.9 VS 134.2 +39%N/A 19X-- 15X
0.82 VS 0.56 +46%202.6 VS 140.2 +45%N/A 20X-- 17X
EPS DUE*5/9 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
80K
250K
800K
*LINKEDIN CORP CLASS A(LNKD) NYSE 89.5 SHRS / 88.6 FLT / AVG VOL2.57MIL $174.95(OH -5%)INTERNET-CONTENT linkedin.comPROVIDES A SOCIAL NETWORKING PLATFORM ENABLING MEMBERS TO SHARE THEIR PROFESSIONAL IDENTITY ONLINE VIA LINKEDIN.COM.
4/13 TO ACQUIRE PULSE, A UNIT OF ALPHONSO LABS, FOR ABOUT $90 MIL (90% IN STOCK AND 10% IN CASH).
SHORT INT 1.7 DAYS -1%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 1.4EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +190%EARNINGS STAB 60EPS RANK 99PE 199 (14.2XS&P)5 YR PE 146 - 511
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING A
20.93 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 26.4%RET ON EQUITY 13%CASH FLOW $1.57
FUNDS 47%BANKS 1%MGMT 1%ALPHA 0.16BETA 1.42
120.63
109.90113.00
125.50
115.40
184.15
88.0091.67
94.75
109.80
165.01
97
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING$45.00IPO 5/19/1107$ 0.01 $08 -0.0509 0.0310 0.2211 0.35 122 5512 0.89 125 6113 1.35EST +52% ↑14 2.08EST +54% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOBitauto BITA 99 72AngiesList ANGI 98 37Zillow Z 96 27AOL AOL 94 69Trulia TRLA 94 29
GROUP REL STR 91 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.15 VS 0.06 +150%188.5 VS 93.9 +101%N/A 306X-- 212X
0.16 VS 0.11 +45%228.2 VS 121.0 +89%N/A 316X-- 200X
0.22 VS 0.06 +267%252.0 VS 139.5 +81%N/A 256X-- 187X
0.35 VS 0.12 +192%303.6 VS 167.7 +81%N/A 252X-- 146X
EPS DUE*5/3 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
700K
1.7M
5M
Pullback Screen
Spring 2013 marketsmith.com
7
*GREEN MTN COFFEE ROASTRS(GMCR) NASDAQ 148.8 SHRS / 125.0 FLT / AVG VOL3.59MIL $55.01(OH -7%)WHOLESALE-FOOD gmcr.comDISTRIBUTES COFFEES AND TEAS, SINGLE CUP BREWERS AND SINGLE CUP PORTION PACKS TO SUPERMARKETS, FOOD STORES AND OTHERS.
11/12 EXPECTS FY13 NON-GAAP EARNINGS OF $2.64 TO $2.74 PER DILUTED SHARE ON REVENUE GROWTH OF 15% TO 20%.
SHORT INT 8 DAYS +6%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 1.5EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +93%EARNINGS STAB 12EPS RANK 99PE 21 (1.5XS&P)5 YR PE 8 - 96
DEBT 23%NEW CEO 12/12TIMELINESS BACC/DIST BSMR RATING A
3.63 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 5.4XR&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 18%CASH FLOW $3.52
FUNDS 54%BANKS 1%MGMT 8%ALPHA 0.14BETA 1.8
50.05
24.98
33.15
43.79
49.10
59.30
19.4517.11
21.3323.28
38.73
52.58
98
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O+O+O10
20
30
40
50
60
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING07$ 0.14 $ 9 308 0.19∆ 9 509 0.36 27 710 0.77 38 2111 1.64 115 3212 2.40 71 1713 2.84EST +18% ↑14 3.22EST +13% ↑
EARNINGS (SEP) HI LOFarmerBrs FARM 95 39Sysco SYY 75 63CoreMark CORE 69 65AmconDist DIT 49 46NashFinch NAFC 31 43
GROUP REL STR 90 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.64 VS 0.48 +33%885.1 VS 647.7 +37%N/A 35X-- 23X
0.52 VS 0.49 +6%869.2 VS 717.2 +21%N/A 24X-- 9X
0.64 VS 0.47 +36%946.7 VS 711.9 +33%N/A 15X-- 8X
0.76 VS 0.60 +27%1339 VS 1158 +16%N/A 18X-- 10X
EPS DUE*5/2 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
2M
6M
18M
GRIFOLS SA ADS(GRFS) NASDAQ 113.5 SHRS / AVG VOL365882 $29.47(OH -5%)MEDICAL-SYSTEMS/EQUIP grifols.comSPANISH MANUFACTURER OF PLASMA DERIVATIVES, BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, DIAGNOSTIC SYSTEMS AND MEDICAL MATERIALS WORLDWIDE.
12/12 Q4 2012 INCLUDES A EUR2.1 MIL GAIN ON IMPAIRMENT/DISPOSAL OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS.
SHORT INT 2.2 DAYS +28%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.1EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +10%EARNINGS STAB 15EPS RANK 96PE 33 (2.4XS&P)5 YR PE 13 - 47
DEBT 96%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING A
10.41 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 1.9XR&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 18%CASH FLOW N/A
FUNDS 24%BANKS 0%MGMTALPHA 0.21BETA 0.61
18.59
21.76
25.23
27.78
31.03
15.24
17.62
19.05
21.5622.15
94
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
105/1001/2
10
15
20
25
30
PRICE SCALE
97COMPOSITE RATING07$ 0.36 $08 0.4909 0.6210 0.4311 0.49 14 812 0.87∆ 27 101314
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOGenMark GNMK 99 46TearLab TEAR 97 25PalmrMd PMTI 96 48Novadaq Tc NVDQ 95 45Spectranet SPNC 95 15
GROUP REL STR 76 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.13 VS 0.24 -46%365.5 VS 371.3 -2%N/A 25X-- 16X
0.28 VS 0.23 +22%824.9 VS 543.0 +52%N/A 38X-- 24X
0.25 VS 0.10 +150%827.0 VS 765.4 +8%N/A 43X-- 35X
0.23∆ VS 0.03 +667%872.0 VS 766.3 +14%N/A 47X-- 32X
EPS DUE*4/24 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
60K
250K
950K
Pullback Screen
Spring 2013marketsmith.com
8
*ALASKA AIR GROUP INC(ALK) NYSE 70.3 SHRS / 68.9 FLT / AVG VOL796342 $60.35(OH -6%)TRANSPORTATION-AIRLINE alaska-air.comPROVIDES AIRLINE PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION VIA ITS ALASKA AIRLINES AND HORIZON AIR SUBSIDIARIES.
9/12 TO REPURCHASE $250 MIL OF COMMON STOCK OUTSTANDING.
SHORT INT 8.6 DAYS +2%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 1.5EX-DIV 10/8YIELD
GROWTH RATE +114%EARNINGS STAB 90EPS RANK 95PE 13 (0.9XS&P)5 YR PE 6 - 411
DEBT 61%NEW CEO 5/12TIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING B
2.94 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 91.3XR&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 26%CASH FLOW $8.57
FUNDS 48%BANKS 0%MGMT 2%ALPHA 0.18BETA 0.87
38.46
35.58
64.55
31.2933.54 32.69
96
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O20
30
40
50
60
PRICE SCALE
98COMPOSITE RATING07$ 1.13 $ 22 1008 0.06 14 509 1.23 18 610 3.57 29 1511 3.92 38 2512 4.73 45 3113 5.58EST +18% ↑14 6.35EST +14% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LORepubAir RJET 98 30Southwest LUV 94 40SpiritAir SAVE 92 57UntdContnt UAL 92 14Ryanair RYAAY 91 84
GROUP REL STR 96 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.39 VS 0.40 -3%1039 VS 965.2 +8%N/A 10X-- 9X
1.53 VS 1.22 +25%1213 VS 1110 +9%N/A 9X-- 8X
2.09 VS 1.79 +17%1272 VS 1198 +6%N/A 10X-- 8X
0.70 VS 0.51 +37%1132 VS 1044 +8%N/A 10X-- 8X
EPS DUE*4/19 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
250K
600K
1.3M
*TRIPADVISOR INC(TRIP) NASDAQ 130.1 SHRS / 98.9 FLT / AVG VOL1.90MIL $51.09(OH -5%)INTERNET-CONTENT tripadvisor.comPROVIDES ONLINE TRAVEL RELATED CONTENT INCLUDING AGGREGATED REVIEWS VIA TRIPADVISOR.COM.
4/13 ACQUIRED JETSETTER.COM, A PRIVATE SALE SITE FOR HOTEL BOOKINGS.
SHORT INT 6.4 DAYS +5%OPTIONS ON AM/NYUP/DOWN 1.1EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +31%EARNINGS STAB 7EPS RANK 94PE 33 (2.4XS&P)5 YR PE 18 - 33
DEBT 47%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING A
10.03 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 43%CASH FLOW $1.72
FUNDS 33%BANKS 1%MGMT 16%ALPHA 0.14BETA 0.93
44.4645.82
47.81
36.97
47.00
49.35
54.14
32.28
28.63
42.04
48.18
91
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
+O
-O
20
30
40
50
60
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING07$08 0.54 $09 0.7710 1.0411 1.46 30 2312 1.54 47 2413 1.74EST +13% ↓14 2.16EST +24% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOBitauto BITA 99 72AngiesList ANGI 98 37LinkedIn LNKD 97 99Zillow Z 96 27AOL AOL 94 69
GROUP REL STR 91 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.38 VS 0.38 0%183.7 VS 149.2 +23%N/A 26X-- 18X
0.41 VS 0.43 -5%197.2 VS 169.2 +16%N/A 32X-- 23X
0.46 VS 0.41 +12%212.7 VS 180.8 +18%N/A 33X-- 22X
0.29 VS 0.24 +21%169.4 VS 137.8 +23%N/A 32X-- 19X
EPS DUE*5/1 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
800K
1.8M
4.5M
Pullback Screen
Visit marketsmith.com/learn/stockguide to load the criteria for this and other Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener.
All screen results are computer-generated and were run on April 22, 2013. This screen can also be found in the community section of marketsmith.com.
9
Tight Weekly Closes
Find stocks with an emerging three-weeks-tight pattern that present a growth opportunity.
“The screen uses the % that price is up in the current week to
find stocks with at least two weeks of tight closes. It currently
yields about a hundred stocks, but if you screen against the
Growth 250 instead of the entire database, you end up with
42 stocks with potential three-weeks-tight patterns.”
From a blog by MarketSmith President Scott O’Neil Three-Weeks-Tight Patterns Emerge, Offering Opportunity MarketSmith.com/community
Composite Company Name (Symbol) Industry Group Rating Page
Ecolab Inc (ECL) Computer Sftwr-Financial 96 10
Mattel Inc (MAT) Medical-Biomed/Biotech 92 10
Energy Transfer Eqty Lp (ETE) Medical-Biomed/Biotech 90 11
J 2 Global Inc (JCOM) Machinery-Mtl Hdlg/Autmn 98 11
Nexstar Broadcasting Grp (NXST) Medical-Biomed/Biotech 98 12
Williams Sonoma Inc (WSM) Retail/Whlsle-Bldg Prds 90 12
Spring 2013marketsmith.com
10
ECOLAB INC(ECL) NYSE 295.0 SHRS / 289.1 FLT / AVG VOL1.10MIL $82.23(OH -1%)SOAP & CLNG PREPARATNS ecolab.comMARKETS CLEANING, SANITIZING, PEST ELIMINATION, MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR PRODUCTS TO HOTELS, RESTAURANTS
4/13 ACQUIRED CHAMPION TECHNOLOGIES AND CORSICANA TECHNOLOGIES FOR $2.3 BIL IN DEBT.
SHORT INT 2.9 DAYS +0%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 1.6EX-DIV 3/1YIELD 1.1%
GROWTH RATE +12%EARNINGS STAB 2EPS RANK 91PE 28 (2.0XS&P)5 YR PE 16 - 30
DEBT 94%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST BSMR RATING A
4.02 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 11.0XR&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 15%CASH FLOW $5.44
FUNDS 34%BANKS 2%MGMT 2%ALPHA 0.07BETA 0.96
68.9667.41
71.5772.79
74.74
61.45 61.6662.98
67.97
71.99 72.03
80
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O
DIVINC
-O-O-O-O+O50
60
70
80
PRICE SCALE
96COMPOSITE RATING07$ 1.66 $ 52 3708 1.86∆ 52 2909 1.99 47 2910 2.23 52 4011 2.54 58 4312 2.98 72 5713 3.52EST +18% ↓14 4.12EST +17% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOClorox CLX 82 66ChurchDwgh CHD 73 94Zep ZEP 38 71
GROUP REL STR 59 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.50 VS 0.45 +11%2810 VS 1518 +85%$0.20 26X-- 23X
0.72 VS 0.64 +12%2958 VS 1698 +74%$0.20 26X-- 24X
0.87 VS 0.75 +16%3023 VS 1736 +74%$0.20 27X-- 23X
0.89 VS 0.70 +27%3045 VS 1845 +65%$0.23 26X-- 24X
EPS DUE*5/1 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
600K
1.3M
3M
MATTEL INC(MAT) NASDAQ 345.0 SHRS / 341.6 FLT / AVG VOL2.55MIL $44.01(OH -2%)LEISURE-TOYS/GAMES/HOBBY mattel.comMANUFACTURES TOY PRODUCTS SOLD WORLDWIDE UNDER THE MATTEL, FISHER-PRICE AND AMERICAN GIRL BRANDS.
11/12 ROBERT A. ECKERT TO RETIRE AS CHRMN, EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 31, 2012.
SHORT INT 2.1 DAYS +0%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 1.9EX-DIV 5/21YIELD 3.3%
GROWTH RATE +20%EARNINGS STAB 13EPS RANK 93PE 17 (1.2XS&P)5 YR PE 8 - 20
DEBT 36%NEW CEO 1/12TIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING A
4.95 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 13.5XR&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 31%CASH FLOW $2.56
FUNDS 52%BANKS 2%MGMT 1%ALPHA 0.09BETA 0.86
36.25
37.96 37.93
30.1530.74
34.58 35.07 34.8535.47
84
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O
DIVINC
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O25
30
35
40
45
PRICE SCALE
92COMPOSITE RATING07$ 1.42∆ $ 29 1808 1.04 21 1009 1.45 21 1010 1.86 26 1911 2.18 29 2212 2.53 37 2713 2.83EST +12% ↑14 3.10EST +10% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOHasbro HAS 82 72OdyssyMar OMEX 14 65LeapFrog LF 13 67
GROUP REL STR 31 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.28 VS 0.23 +22%1158 VS 1161 0%$0.31 16X-- 14X
1.04 VS 0.86 +21%2077 VS 1998 +4%$0.31 16X-- 14X
1.12 VS 1.07 +5%2255 VS 2153 +5%$0.31 16X-- 14X
0.11 VS 0.06 +83%995.6 VS 928.5 +7%$0.36 18X-- 14X
*EPS DUE 7/17 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,13
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
1M
2.5M
6M
Tight Weekly Closes
Spring 2013 marketsmith.com
11
ENERGY TRANSFER EQTY LP(ETE) NYSE 280.0 SHRS / 193.2 FLT / AVG VOL738410 $59.29(OH -1%)OIL&GAS-TRANSPRT/PIPELNE energytransfer.comMLP OWNING 0.9% AND 1.6% GENERAL PARTNER INTEREST IN ENERGY TRANSFER PARTNER AND REGENCY ENERGY PARTNERS, RESPECTIVELY.
2/13 CO/ENERGY TRANSFER PARTNERS JOINTLY TO SELL SOUTHERN UNION GATHERING CO TO REGENCY ENERGY PARTNERS, FOR $1.5 BIL.
SHORT INT 2.2 DAYS -20%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 1.4EX-DIV 2/5YIELD 4.3%
GROWTH RATE -1%EARNINGS STAB 31EPS RANK 36PE 32 (2.2XS&P)5 YR PE 7 - 62
DEBT 1015%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST ASMR RATING B
7.81 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 18.3XR&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 38%CASH FLOW $4.54
FUNDS 9%BANKS 0%MGMT 30%ALPHA 0.12BETA 0.83
43.12 43.26
46.3945.72
48.20
34.00
40.3441.72
44.11
90
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
+O
DIVINC
+O30
40
50
60
PRICE SCALE
90COMPOSITE RATING(C)$21.00IPO 2/03/0607$ 1.52∆ $ 42 2908 1.68∆ 35 1209 1.98 31 1510 0.86∆ 40 2711 1.41∆ 47 3012 1.87∆ 48 3413 2.09EST +12% ↓14 2.45EST +17% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOCheniereEn LNG 96 46OiltankPtr OILT 94 95Semgroup SEMG 94 47AtlasEnerg ATLS 94 7SunocoLog SXL 92 90
GROUP REL STR 84 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.61∆ VS 0.40 +52%1503 VS 1966 -24%$0.63 32X-- 28X
0.61∆ VS 0.30∆ +103%1976 VS 1974 0%$0.63 31X-- 21X
0.61∆ VS 0.32∆ +91%2171 VS 2084 +4%$0.63 27X-- 21X
0.05 VS 0.37∆ -86%11313 VS 2166 +422%$0.63 24X-- 19X
EPS DUE*5/8 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
250K
650K
1.6M
J 2 GLOBAL INC(JCOM) NASDAQ 46.0 SHRS / 42.3 FLT / AVG VOL340092 $38.49(OH -3%)TELECOM SVCS-CABLE/SATL j2global.comPROVIDES INTERNET-BASED FAX, VOICEMAIL, EMAIL, AND CALL HAN-DLING SERVICES WORLDWIDE.
4/13 ACQUIRED BACKUP CONNECT BV, AN ONLINE BACKUP PROVIDER BASED IN THE NETHERLANDS.
SHORT INT 32 DAYS -11%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 2.3EX-DIV 2/21YIELD 2.4%
GROWTH RATE +15%EARNINGS STAB 5EPS RANK 81PE 14 (1.0XS&P)5 YR PE 9 - 19
DEBT 41%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST ASMR RATING A
2.98 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 5.0%RET ON EQUITY 22%CASH FLOW $3.31
FUNDS 62%BANKS 3%MGMT 7%ALPHA 0.13BETA 0.68
26.99
30.35
33.37 33.0032.40
37.48
39.83
23.55
27.72 28.08
29.9530.49
89
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O
DIVINC
-O-O-O
DIVINC
-O-O
DIVINC
20
25
30
35
40
PRICE SCALE
98COMPOSITE RATING07$ 1.45 $ 37 2108 1.58 27 1309 1.85 25 1610 1.96 30 1811 2.53 32 2512 2.69 33 2313 2.78EST +3% ↑14 3.02EST +9% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOIntrntIntv IIJI 98 84VirginMed VMED 97 73Cogent CCOI 91 19LibtyGlbA LBTYA 85 45LibtyGlbB LBTYB 85 45
GROUP REL STR 64 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.64 VS 0.60 +7%86.7 VS 73.4 +18%$0.21 12X-- 11X
0.70 VS 0.65 +8%89.5 VS 85.7 +4%$0.22 11X-- 9X
0.65 VS 0.64 +2%93.3 VS 86.0 +8%$0.22 13X-- 10X
0.70 VS 0.64 +9%102.0 VS 85.1 +20%$0.23 13X-- 11X
EPS DUE*5/3 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
88K
250K
650K
Tight Weekly Closes
Spring 2013marketsmith.com
12
NEXSTAR BROADCASTING GRP(NXST) NASDAQ 25.2 SHRS / 16.1 FLT / AVG VOL476666 $21.90(OH -2%)MEDIA-RADIO/TV nexstar.tvTELEVISION BROADCASTING CO THAT OWNS AND OPERATES 55 STATIONS AND PROVIDES SALES AND OTHER SERVICES TO 32 STATIONS.
3/13 ACQUIRED ASSETS OF WFFF-TV AND WVNY, AFFILIATES OF FOX AND ABC FROM SMITH MEDIA AND AFFILIATES, FOR $16.9 MIL.
SHORT INT .9 DAYS -7%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.7EX-DIVYIELD 2.2%
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 74PE 26 (1.8XS&P)5 YR PE 11 - 137
DEBT 28960%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST ASMR RATING
216.59 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D N/ARET ON EQUITY N/ACASH FLOW $2.83
FUNDS 20%BANKS 0%MGMT 35%ALPHA 0.36BETA 1.47
8.057.25
8.91
12.9711.95
6.33 6.00
10.018.99 99
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-OSO
PSODIVDCR
-OSO
PSO
-O-O-O+O
-O+O0
5
10
15
20
PRICE SCALE
98COMPOSITE RATING$14.00IPO 11/24/0307$ -0.70∆ $ 15 408 -2.49∆ 9 009 -0.44∆ 4 010 -0.06∆ 7 311 -0.42∆ 10 412 5.77∆ 12 613 1.11EST -81% ↓14 2.37EST+114% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOSinclair SBGI 99 99Entravsn EVC 99 80LINTvA TVL 99 66GrayTV GTN 99 39FisherCmm FSCI 96 72
GROUP REL STR 99 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.10 VS -0.22∆#+145%83.6 VS 69.9 +20%N/A N/A
0.29∆ VS -0.09∆#+422%88.9 VS 75.5 +18%N/A N/A
0.31 VS -0.22#+241%90.0 VS 74.8 +20%N/A 40X-- 28X
0.15 VS 0.11∆ +36%116.2 VS 86.2 +35%N/A 46X-- 11X
EPS DUE*5/8 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
16K
82K
450K
*WILLIAMS SONOMA INC(WSM) NYSE 97.7 SHRS / 89.9 FLT / AVG VOL1.35MIL $52.28(OH 0%)RETAIL-HOME FURNISHINGS williams-sonomainc.comOPERATES 576 HOME FURNISHINGS AND ACCESSORIES STORES IN 44 STATES, D.C., CANADA AND PUERTO RICO
3/13 EXPECTS FY14 CAPITAL EXPENDITURES OF $200 MIL TO $220 MIL.
SHORT INT 4.3 DAYS -14%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 1.3EX-DIV 4/24YIELD 2.4%
GROWTH RATE +35%EARNINGS STAB 99EPS RANK 89PE 20 (1.4XS&P)5 YR PE 3 - 185
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST CSMR RATING A
3.86 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 6.8XR&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 20%CASH FLOW $3.77
FUNDS 37%BANKS 1%MGMT 2%ALPHA 0.07BETA 1.26
40.76
37.07
45.60
48.0746.89
47.46 47.79
32.6733.56
42.6541.99
43.49 43.63
87
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O
DIVINC
-O-O-O-O-O+O30
35
40
45
50
PRICE SCALE
90COMPOSITE RATING07$ 1.76 $ 36 2508 1.76 29 409 0.34∆ 22 610 0.95 36 1811 1.95 45 2712 2.24 48 3213 2.5814 2.77EST +7% ↓
EARNINGS (JAN) HI LOHavertyFrn HVT 97 95Haverty Cl HVTA 97 94EthanAllen ETH 82 69LaZBoy LZB 80 84MttrssFrm MFRM 79 84
GROUP REL STR 37 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.34 VS 0.30 +13%817.6 VS 770.8 +6%$0.22 18X-- 16X
0.43 VS 0.37 +16%874.3 VS 814.8 +7%$0.22 18X-- 14X
0.49 VS 0.41 +20%944.6 VS 867.2 +9%$0.22 20X-- 15X
1.34 VS 1.17 +15%1406 VS 1268 +11%$0.22 20X-- 17X
EPS DUE 5/22 QUARTER ENDED APR 30,12 QUARTER ENDED JUL 31,12 QUARTER ENDED OCT 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JAN 31,13
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
400K
1.2M
Tight Weekly Closes
Visit marketsmith.com/learn/stockguide to load the criteria for this and other Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener.
All screen results are computer-generated and were run on April 22, 2013. This screen can also be found in the community section of marketsmith.com.
13
RS Line Leading Price
Discover the best stocks that are currently outperforming the rest of the market.
During periods of market weakness, stocks maintaining
high Relative Strength (RS) Ratings may be correcting
less and positioning for a substantial price run once the
market environment improves. Look for recognizable chart
patterns. When the market is in an uptrend, stocks with
strong RS Ratings should run up farther and faster than
other, lower-ranked stocks.
Up/Down Company Name (Symbol) Industry Group Volume Page
Angie’s List Inc (ANGI) Internet-Content 1.8 14
Medicines Company (MDCO) Medical-Biomed/Biotech 1.2 14
Boeing Co (BA) Aerospace/Defense 2.3 15
Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) Leisure-Services 1.6 15
Alkermes Plc (ALKS) Medical-Biomed/Biotech 1.5 16
Acorda Therapeutics Inc (ACOR) Medical-Biomed/Biotech 1.6 16
Spring 2013marketsmith.com
14
ANGIE'S LIST INC(ANGI) NASDAQ 57.9 SHRS / 15.1 FLT / AVG VOL868590 $20.74(OH -1%)INTERNET-CONTENT angieslist.comPROVIDES ONLINE INFORMATION WHERE MEMBERS CAN RESEARCH, REVIEW, HIRE AND RATE LOCAL PROFESSIONALS VIA ANGIESLIST.COM.
3/13 ROBERT R. MILLARD TO STEP DOWN AS CFO, EFFECTIVE APRIL 1, 2013.
SHORT INT 9.3 DAYS +1%OPTIONS ON AM/PHUP/DOWN 1.8EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 37PE5 YR PE
DEBT 280%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST ASMR RATING D
217.66 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D N/ARET ON EQUITY N/ACASH FLOW $-0.86
FUNDS 45%BANKS 0%MGMT 29%ALPHA 0.14BETA 1.12
17.0016.06
12.23 11.9412.87
11.77
8.94 8.95
11.14
18.15
98
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O+O-O5
10
15
20
25
PRICE SCALE
90COMPOSITE RATING(W)(C)$13.00IPO 11/17/1107$ -0.28 $08 -0.3609 -0.2110 -0.4811 -0.83 18 1012 -0.92 19 813 -0.48EST ↑14 0.20EST ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOBitauto BITA 99 72LinkedIn LNKD 97 99Zillow Z 96 27AOL AOL 94 69Trulia TRLA 94 29
GROUP REL STR 91 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
-0.24 VS -0.17 N/A31.1 VS 17.6 +76%N/A N/A
-0.41 VS -0.28 N/A36.5 VS 21.0 +74%N/A N/A
-0.32 VS -0.27 N/A42.0 VS 24.0 +75%N/A N/A
0.04 VS -0.10#+140%46.2 VS 27.5 +68%N/A N/A
EPS DUE*4/26 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
80K
300K
1.2M
*MEDICINES COMPANY(MDCO) NASDAQ 54.6 SHRS / 50.8 FLT / AVG VOL718860 $34.43(OH -2%)MEDICAL-BIOMED/BIOTECH themedicinescompany.comDEVELOPS PRODUCTS FOR USE IN CORONARY INTERVENTIONS AND ANTICOAGULATION THERAPY IN CRITICAL CARE HOSPITAL SETTINGS.
2/13 RCVD LICENCE/2-YR COLLABORATION FROM FDA FOR RECOTHROM, TREATS NON-ARTERIAL BLEEDING DURING SURGICAL PROCEDURES.
SHORT INT 3.9 DAYS +9%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 1.2EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +127%EARNINGS STAB 84EPS RANK 98PE 18 (1.3XS&P)5 YR PE 8 - 105
DEBT 39%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST ASMR RATING A
3.21 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 9.2XR&D 22.6%RET ON EQUITY 19%CASH FLOW $2.22
FUNDS 53%BANKS 0%MGMT 6%ALPHA 0.19BETA 0.78
22.6223.27
26.1526.95
35.1935.19
20.65
22.53
23.78
20.04
93
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O15
20
25
30
35
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING07$ 0.49 $ 34 1408 0.72 28 1109 -0.09 16 610 1.31 15 611 1.57∆ 20 1212 1.91 26 1813 0.93EST -51% ↓14 1.48EST +59% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOChinaBio n CBPO 99 76KeryxBiop KERX 99 41HypernTher HPTX 99 34CelldexTh CLDX 99 32Astex Phar ASTX 99 32
GROUP REL STR 97 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.27 VS 0.64∆ -58%126.6 VS 112.1 +13%N/A 17X-- 13X
0.46 VS 0.24 +92%135.7 VS 119.6 +13%N/A 20X-- 12X
0.40 VS 0.17 +135%136.8 VS 120.8 +13%N/A 21X-- 17X
0.78 VS 0.52∆ +50%159.5 VS 132.2 +21%N/A 19X-- 12X
EPS DUE*4/25 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
152K
550K
1.7M
RS Line Leading Price
Spring 2013 marketsmith.com
15
BOEING CO(BA ) NYSE 756.2 SHRS / 748.6 FLT / AVG VOL5.00MIL $87.96(OH -1%)AEROSPACE/DEFENSE boeing.comMANUFACTURES COMMERCIAL AND MILITARY AIRCRAFT, MISSILES AND INFORMATION/COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS.
2/13 TO ACQUIRE ACALIS, A MICROPROCESSOR UNIT OF CPU TECHNOLOGY, TERMS UNDISCLOSED.
SHORT INT 1.4 DAYS -18%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 2.3EX-DIV 2/13YIELD 2.2%
GROWTH RATE +3%EARNINGS STAB 58EPS RANK 39PE 18 (1.2XS&P)5 YR PE 6 - 56
DEBT 153%NEW CEOTIMELINESS CACC/DIST ASMR RATING A
11.22 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 2.3XR&D 4.0%RET ON EQUITY 81%CASH FLOW $7.46
FUNDS 34%BANKS 10%MGMT 1%ALPHA 0.03BETA 0.94
77.83
75.9675.00
78.02
66.82
71.1570.02
69.03 69.30
72.68
79
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
DIVINC
-O
FORTUNE 10/8/12
60
70
80
90
PRICE SCALE
82COMPOSITE RATING07$ 5.26 $ 107 8408 4.79 88 3609 1.87 56 2910 4.20 76 5411 4.80 80 5612 5.00 77 6613 6.37EST +27% ↓14 7.21EST +13% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LODucmmun DCO 97 86DigitlGlob DGI 95 80Aerosonic AIM 95 52GenCorp GY 95 21EurAeroDef EADSY 90 67
GROUP REL STR 52 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
1.11 VS 0.78 +42%19383 VS 14910 +30%$0.44 17X-- 15X
1.27 VS 1.25 +2%20005 VS 16543 +21%$0.44 16X-- 13X
1.35 VS 1.46 -8%20008 VS 17727 +13%$0.44 15X-- 13X
1.29 VS 1.31 -2%22302 VS 19555 +14%$0.44 15X-- 13X
EPS DUE*4/25 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
2M
4.5M
9.5M
*HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS(HTZ) NYSE 399.6 SHRS / 343.6 FLT / AVG VOL7.52MIL $23.72(OH -2%)LEISURE-SERVICES hertz.comPROVIDES CAR RENTALS AT 8,500 LOCATIONS IN 150 COUNTRIES AND INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT RENTALS THROUGH 317 BRANCHES WORLDWIDE
2/13 EXPECTS 2013 ADJUSTED EARNINGS OF $1.82 TO $1.92 PER DILUTED SHARE ON REVENUES OF $10.850 BIL TO $10.950 BIL.
SHORT INT 5.6 DAYS -12%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 1.6EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +73%EARNINGS STAB 9EPS RANK 99PE 17 (1.2XS&P)5 YR PE 2 - 61
DEBT 616%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST ASMR RATING B
3.76 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 95.1XR&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 25%CASH FLOW $7.12
FUNDS 34%BANKS 1%MGMT 3%ALPHA 0.12BETA 1.83
16.64
13.70
15.29 15.17
11.57 11.90
10.22
13.5012.97
97
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O+O
-OSO
PSO
-O+O-O-OSO
PSO
-O-O5
10
15
20
PRICE SCALE
98COMPOSITE RATING(C)$15.00IPO 11/16/0607$ 1.26 $ 27 1408 0.42 16 109 0.29 12 110 0.51 15 811 0.97 17 712 1.33 16 1013 1.90EST +43% ↑14 2.35EST +24% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOAvisBudget CAR 98 95PointsIntl PCOM 94 85MadisSqGrd MSG 93 93LiveNatn LYV 90 15MnchstrUtd MANU 87 23
GROUP REL STR 64 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.05 VS -0.03#+267%1960 VS 1780 +10%N/A 18X-- 14X
0.35 VS 0.26 +35%2225 VS 2072 +7%N/A 16X-- 11X
0.63 VS 0.51 +24%2516 VS 2432 +3%N/A 13X-- 9X
0.33 VS 0.24 +38%2318 VS 2013 +15%N/A 13X-- 10X
EPS DUE*5/2 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
1.8M
5M
12.5M
RS Line Leading Price
Spring 2013marketsmith.com
16
ALKERMES PLC(ALKS) NASDAQ 97.6 SHRS / 88.8 FLT / AVG VOL1.28MIL $31.27(OH -1%)MEDICAL-BIOMED/BIOTECH alkermes.comDEVELOPS THERAPIES BASED ON PROPRIETARY DRUG DELIVERY TECHNOLOGY TO ENHANCE EXISTING DRUGS.
4/13 ANNOUNCED POSITIVE RESULTS FROM PHASE II STUDY OF ALKS 5461 FOR THE TREATMENT OF MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER.
SHORT INT 4.5 DAYS +1%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 1.5EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 80PE 31 (2.2XS&P)5 YR PE 23 - 280
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST ASMR RATING C
7.72 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 9.1XR&D 52.1%RET ON EQUITY N/ACASH FLOW N/A
FUNDS 61%BANKS 0%MGMT 8%ALPHA 0.19BETA 1.05
18.58
19.9921.12 20.69
23.36
14.82
17.4518.00 18.51 18.21
19.77
22.17
97
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O+O
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O10
15
20
25
30
35
PRICE SCALE
97COMPOSITE RATING07$ 0.37 $ 18 1208 0.31 17 509 0.01 13 710 -0.06 16 911 -0.48∆ 20 1112 0.10∆ 21 1413 1.00EST+900% ↓14 1.14EST +14% ↓
EARNINGS (MAR) HI LOChinaBio n CBPO 99 76KeryxBiop KERX 99 41HypernTher HPTX 99 34CelldexTh CLDX 99 32Astex Phar ASTX 99 32
GROUP REL STR 97 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.12 VS -0.14#+186%130.5 VS 51.1 +155%N/A 280X-- 229X
0.39 VS 0.04 +875%152.2 VS 61.9 +146%N/A 269X-- 45X
0.17 VS 0.07∆ +143%124.0 VS 72.0 +72%N/A 58X-- 26X
0.34 VS 0.10 +240%135.9 VS 125.6 +8%N/A 31X-- 23X
EPS DUE*5/17 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
300K
800K
2.5M
ACORDA THERAPEUTICS INC(ACOR) NASDAQ 40.3 SHRS / 34.2 FLT / AVG VOL411972 $40.44(OH 0%)MEDICAL-BIOMED/BIOTECH acorda.comDEVELOPS THERAPIES TO IMPROVE NEUROLOGICAL FUNCTION IN PEO- PLE WITH MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS AND SPINAL CORD INJURY.
4/13 ANNOUNCED POSITIVE DATA FROM PHASE II STUDY OF AMPYRA, TREATS POST-STROKE DEFICITS.
SHORT INT 7.7 DAYS +20%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 1.6EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 11PE 32 (2.3XS&P)5 YR PE 14 - 225
DEBT 1%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST ASMR RATING B
4.18 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 12.4XR&D 17.6%RET ON EQUITY 17%CASH FLOW $1.49
FUNDS 56%BANKS 0%MGMT 6%ALPHA 0.16BETA 0.91
25.7026.65
27.3525.89
31.05
21.04 21.3322.36
23.90 97
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O15
20
25
30
35
40
PRICE SCALE
82COMPOSITE RATING$6.00IPO 2/10/0607$ -1.45 $ 26 1508 -2.11 35 1409 -2.22 29 1510 0.16 40 2411 1.13 33 1812 1.25 27 2113 0.68EST -46% ↑14 1.12EST +65% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOChinaBio n CBPO 99 76KeryxBiop KERX 99 41HypernTher HPTX 99 34CelldexTh CLDX 99 32Astex Phar ASTX 99 32
GROUP REL STR 97 RS EPS
19522822825112814301621952172410271329151184APRMARFEBJAN 13DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.36 VS 0.08 +350%71.3 VS 61.3 +16%N/A 31X-- 22X
0.27 VS 0.19 +42%75.7 VS 65.3 +16%N/A 24X-- 15X
0.38 VS 0.40 -5%77.4 VS 93.0 -17%N/A 19X-- 14X
0.24 VS 0.45 -47%81.5 VS 72.6 +12%N/A 18X-- 15X
EPS DUE*5/3 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,12 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,12 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,12
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
98K
350K
1.2M
RS Line Leading Price
Spring 2013 marketsmith.com
17MarketSmith Education Tips
Building a Digital Model Book A model book is a collection of stocks with “model behavior,” literally the characteristics and behavior that you would like your investments to mirror. We use these models as historical precedent to compare and evaluate stocks. Using the markups and journal features in MarketSmith, you can build your own digital model book using any historical stock activity that displays classic stock chart patterns.
In the following section we will be using models that can be found in the book, “How to Make Money in Stocks,” by William J. O’Neil.
Creating a ModelStep one: Find your model stock
It does not have to be a recent example, but the stock must be a currently listed stock.
Step two: Locate the pattern on the stock chart
For example: Cup with Handle – AAPL 3/5/2004
Enter the stock symbol and use the change-date feature to bring the chart pattern into view.
Step three: Draw the patterns
Use the markup tools in MarketSmith to trace the outline of the pattern. Be sure to identify the entry point along with any other important characteristics of that model pattern.
Spring 2013marketsmith.com
MarketSmith Education Tips
Step four: Index the model in your journal
Use the journal feature in the Notes & Discussion Panel to index the stock model for future use. Identify a common keyword (for example: AAPL Model Stock) so you can easily search for model stocks. You may also want to include the following information to assist you with future comparisons:
• The chart pattern type: Cup with handle
• The date of the breakout/entry: 3/5/2004
• The source for the model: How To Make Money in Stocks, pg. 99
• The depth of the pattern: 23%
• The length of the pattern: 20 Weeks
• The pivot price: $12.52
• Other important characteristics of the pattern: “Pattern forms in the handle of a much larger cup w/ handle. There are six tight weekly closes in the handle.”
Spring 2013 marketsmith.com
19MarketSmith Education Tips
More Model Stock ExamplesFlat Base – Microsoft Corp
• The chart pattern type: Flat base
• The date of the breakout/entry: 1/09/1987
• The source for the model: How To Make Money in Stocks, pg. 71
• The depth of the pattern: 12%
• The length of the pattern: 5 Weeks
• The pivot price: $25.73
• Other important characteristics of the pattern: “This is the first pullback to the 50 dma and a second-stage base. The volume dries up in the base.”
Double Bottom Base – Loews Corp
• The chart pattern type: Double bottom
• The date of the breakout/entry: 9/6/1968
• The source for the model: How To Make Money in Stocks, pg. 47
• The depth of the pattern: 25%
• The length of the pattern: 12 Weeks
• The pivot price: $32.10
• Other important characteristics of the pattern: “This was a late (4th) stage base.”
Spring 2013marketsmith.com
MarketSmith Education Tips
Using Your Models Once you have model stocks stored in your journal, use them to compare against the current chart patterns you are evaluating.
Use the new chart window button to display the model chart pattern alongside the current chart pattern you are analyzing. Looking at them side-by-side should make it easier to determine if the current pattern shares enough of the model’s characteristics to be considered a good pattern. Be sure to compare the length, depth, and overall look and feel of the two patterns.
Apple Inc (AAPL) 3/5/2004 Linkedin Corp (LNKD) 1/25/2013
For more information on Building a Digital Model Book, watch the archived webinar on this topic from 12/4/2012 at marketsmith.com/Learn/Webinars.aspx.
THE MATERIAL CONTAINED HEREIN IS NOT TO BE COPIED OR REDISTRIBUTED WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF MARKETSMITH, INCORPORATED.
The data, facts, and statements presented here have been obtained or derived from original or from recognized statistical and/or trade sources. There is no guarantee as to the accuracy of this information and it may possibly be incomplete and/or condensed. This is not a prospectus or an offer with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities. This information is compiled to assist you in your study of the various securities; however, the information contained herein should neither be considered investment advice of any kind nor construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.
Attention is called to the fact that the officers, directors, employees, and/or stockholders of MarketSmith, Incorporated and its affiliates may own securities, or purchase or sell securities in the companies that are referenced in this publication or those not so mentioned.
Copyright © 2013 MarketSmith, Incorporated. All rights reserved, including the right to reproduce this document or any part thereof in any form. Printed in the USA.
All data contained herein are provided by William O’Neil + Co. Incorporated. MarketSmith is a registered trademark of MarketSmith, Incorporated.
Standard & Poor’s US Index Data
Copyright © 2013, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”). Reproduction of S&P US Index Data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of S&P. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by S&P’s sources, S&P or others, S&P does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. S&P GIVES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall S&P or its affiliates be liable for any indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with subscriber’s or others’ use of S&P US Index Data. (2012)
Sharpen your Technical Skills with MarketSmith Webinars
Hosted every Tuesday by MarketSmith Product Coaches, webinar topics vary from basic fundamental stock analysis to advanced technical chart analysis. All webinars are archived so you can view them at anytime. Visit
marketsmith.com/webinar.
Technical Webinar Topics Include:
» The Importance of Chart Patterns
» Using Technical Analysis to Identify Sell Points
» Using Volume to Gauge Supply and Demand
Master the Market with W. Scott O’NeilDon’t miss the monthly Master the Market Series with W. Scott O’Neil. This month, Chris Gessel, Executive Editor at Investor’s Business Daily, joins Scott to discuss the current market and how best to move forward. Find Scott’s current schedule at MarketSmith.com.
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