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Adaptable and Resilient Shopping Centres Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Resilience

Greg Johnson

National Sustainability Manager

Commercial Property

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Stockland’s Strategic Response to Climate Change

Monitor

Reduce

Adapt

Innovate

Communicate

Tri-generation plant - 133 Castlereagh St

Solar PV installation – Stockland Green Hills

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Moving from Strategy to Assessment

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Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment Criteria

• Climate Effects – predicted exposure to changing climate

• Property Elements – sensitivity and adaptive capacity

• Climate Risks – potential impact from climate effects

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Climate effects Summary of regional projections (2030-2070) Credit

Climate Zone Zone 2

Mean temperature change 2030: Increase by 3% to 21.6OC

2070: Increase by 17% to 26.1OC

2

Extreme heat Baseline: 16 days per annum > 35˚C

2030: Increase by 150% to 40 days

2070: Increase by 300% to 64 days

3

Mean rainfall change Baseline: 811 mm per annum

2030: Decrease by 14% to 698 mm per annum

2070: Decrease by 17% to 674 mm per annum

2

Extreme rainfall – inland flooding

Baseline: 17 days per annum >150 mm

2030: Increase by 29% to 22 days

2070: Increase by 47% to 25 days

3

Sea level rise – coastal flooding

The 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projected to increase by 51 cm.

1

Drought

(see note below)

2030: Increase by 12% potential evaporation

2070: Increase by 22% potential evaporation

3

Wind and hail See cyclone 3

Cyclones 10% increase in cyclone intensity and frequency, as well as a 130 km shift southwards in cyclone tracks.

3

Bushfires Increase in bushfire risk – see map. 2

Relative humidity 7 -17% increase 2

Overall Exposure Rating 2.4

Climate Effects - Predicted Exposure

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Property Elements – Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity

• Location and design

• Structure

• Operation and Maintenance

• Utilities and Services

• Stakeholders

Authorities

Retailers,

Community

Contractors

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Climate Risks – Potential Impacts

• Increased demand on HVAC systems

• Reduced integrity of roofing structures

• Overloading of stormwater systems

• Deterioration of building materials

• Reduced availability of potable water

• Local flooding, salt water intrusion

• Wind and hail damage

• Water and mosquito borne disease

• Bushfires, smoke penetration

• Increased landscape maintenance

• Expectation of community as a place of refuge

• Business disruption to our customers &

retailers

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Vulnerability and Resilience Scorecard

• A score from 1 to 3 is assigned to each criteria in each category

• Scores are aggregated and averaged for a category average

• Category scores are added for an overall score out of 9.

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Climate Change Vulnerability and Resilience

● ● ●

● ●

● ● ●

Cairns

Gladstone

Hervey Bay

2 Victoria Ave

Durack Centre

Point Cook

Wetherill Park

Green Hills

● ●

● ●

Townsville

North Shore

Rockhampton

T’ville K Mart

● Wendouree

Bull Creek

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What have we found?

Stormwater channel causes carpark to flood

3-4 times a year

Major hail event caused gutters to block and

ceiling to collapse

Metal roof screwed down with cyclone

washers

Shade cover over atrium due to glare and heat

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What have we found?

Location of major services near

storm water pits Box gutter overflows and damages soffits

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What have we found?

Additional rain heads installed to cope with

extreme rain

Heat reflective ‘cool’ roof materials used to

reduce heat island effect.

Exterior cladding cyclone rated

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Simulation appears to only explain 20-40% of the observed energy savings associated with cool roofs.

Why is this?

‘Cool roofs’ as an adaptive response

1st Order Simulation

Assumes no micro climate above the roof, no heat

island effect factored, heat instantly dispersed

2nd Order Effects (Local Heat Island)

Convective heat loss from roof heats ambient air locally and

creates a roof micro climate.

This in turn warms the roof surface further which in combination

leads to:

• Additional roof heat loads

• Ventilation air intake temperatures are warmer

• Condensing temperatures are higher, cooling efficiency lower

These effects

become particularly

important on larger

roofs

Reasonable

approximation for

small roofs with no

mechanical

equipment on the

roof

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What the modelling tools can’t tell us about 2nd order effects

9.5%

+18 +27

+50

+25

Hervey Bay Coolmax Savings

9.5%

58 MWhe/pa

Savings multiplier of 2.2

+73

Coolmax Surfmist

1st First Order Savings

Electricity Use (MWhe/pa) 26.1 20.7

4.6% 3.7%

Total Savings (with 2nd Order)

Electricity Use (MWhe/pa) 58.3 44.5

9.5% 7.2%

Savings Multiplier 2.23 2.15

Savings Over Zincalume

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What have we found?

Ductwork secured for cyclones Hail damage to air cooled condenser coil

Stormwater drains back up and flood mall

2-3 times a year Shade sails in carpark provide amenity

for shoppers

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What have we found?

Examples of sprays fitted to air cooled PAC units to

assist on days of extreme heat.

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Key Adaptation Actions

Area Proposed Actions Benefits

Maintenance & Operations

Continue installing roof fastening systems in vulnerable regions

Maintenance of roof stormwater drainage systems

Protection of roof mounted HVAC equipment against wind and hail damage

Model performance of existing HVAC systems to increase in extreme heat days

Embed extreme event responses into emergency procedures and Stockland risk management processes

Raise awareness with stakeholders on responses for extreme events

Include dialogue with local authorities around the use of centres for refuge

- Reduced operating and maintenance costs

- Operational issues are addressed as climate adaptation responses

- Actions can be prioritised, investigated and rolled into asset plans over time

- Greater emergency preparedness and amenity where centres used for refuge

- New shopping centres can be future proofed through climate resilient design

- Potential insurance premium reductions

- Reduced risk of business interruption for retailers and rental abatement

- Improved indoor environment and comfort for retailers and shoppers

- Added community value as a safe and secure place of refuge during extreme events

Asset Planning

Provide facility for ‘plug in’ emergency power supplies

Provide shelter for carparks, outdoor dining areas, atriums, walkways

Specify heat reflective and thermal ‘cool’ roofing materials

Design & Development

Design for increased extreme heat days over 35 degrees in developments

Design for increased rain events above 150 mm in developments

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In Summary

• Climate resilience is not just about how we respond in an extreme weather emergency.

• It’s as much about how we manage incremental changes to our climate over time.

• Our response is as much about how we manage the day to day, as well as the extremes.

• If we are experiencing noticeable climate impacts today, what will it be like in the future?

• Some of this impact we can avoid through adaptation, some of it we can only manage.

• What is important is to be understand vulnerability and take action to improve resilience.

Stockland Corporation Limited

ACN 000 181 733

Stockland Trust Management Limited

ACN 001 900 741

25th Floor

133 Castlereagh Street

SYDNEY NSW 2000

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY

While every effort is made to provide accurate and

complete information, Stockland does not warrant or

represent that the information in this presentation is

free from errors or omissions or is suitable for your

intended use. The information provided in this

presentation may not be suitable for your specific

situation or needs and should not be relied upon by

you in substitution of you obtaining independent

advice. Subject to any terms implied by law and

which cannot be excluded, Stockland accepts no

responsibility for any loss, damage, cost or expense

(whether direct or indirect) incurred by you as a result

of any error, omission or misrepresentation in

information in this presentation. All information in this

presentation is subject to change without notice.