stocks are less attractive on benchmark valuations update

8/3/2019 Stocks are less attractive on Benchmark Valuations Update

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks

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December 7 , 2011 Stoc ks are less a t t rac t ive on Benchmark Valuat ions Update

Yesterday I gave you all the key levels that provide overhead resistances in my prediction that

stocks will not see new highs this year. Today is the fundamental story following benchmarkrevisions from ValuEngine.

Benchmark Changes to ValuEngine Valuations and Forecasts: At the beginning of each monthValuEngine performs benchmark revisions based upon revised data from their data vendors.Sometimes the revisions are minor. Sometimes they are significant as they were yesterday.

Since August the stock market has seen mindboggling volatility such as the weakest Thanksgivingweek since 1932 followed by one of the strongest weeks ever. At the February highs more than 65% oall stocks were overvalued, which was a ValuEngine Valuation Warning. This was when the yield onthe 30-Year bond tested 4.791. Then on October 4th we showed 93.5% of all stocks undervalued withthe 30-Year yield at 2.692. This was a major reason for stocks to move from rich at the highs to

cheap at the lows.

Changes to benchmark revisions also includes; Twelve Month Trailing EPS and Twelve MonthForward EPS Estimates. Today, only 70.9% of all stocks are undervalued.

There has been a major change to Sector Valuations. Nine sectors are overvalued and sevensectors are undervalued in a range from 10.7% undervalued to 12.3% overvalued. This is quite a shiftfrom sixteen sectors undervalued with fifteen by double-digit percentages.

The weakened overall valuations picture supports my prediction that stocks have seen their highs forthe year, and perhaps after year end I can forecast that the highs in 2011 will not be seen in 2012.

10-Year Note (2.082) Daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 2.203, 2.414, 2.669and 2.690 with a weekly pivot at 2.135, the 50-day simple moving average at 2.056, and semiannualand monthly risky levels at 1.672 and 1.602.

Comex Gold ($1732.2) Semiannual and annual value levels are $1469.9, $1644.8 and $1,356.5with quarterly and daily pivots at $1738.4 and $1760.8, and weekly and monthly risky levels at$1808.4 and $1873.8, and the September 6th all time high at $1923.7. The 50-day simple movingaverage is a support at $1703.2. The years low was $1535.0 set on September 26 th.


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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil ($100.95) The October 4th year-to-date low is $74.95 with a monthly value level a$86.20, the 200-day simple moving average at $95.99, quarterly, monthly and annual pivots at$100.34, $99.91 and $101.92, and daily, weekly, semiannual risky levels at $103.35, $107.75, $103.9and $107.90. The high and low for oil happened on the same days as the Dow with the high at$114.83 per barrel on May 2nd.



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The Euro (1.3397) My quarterly value level is 1.2598 with a daily pivot at 1.3412, the 50-day simplemoving average at 1.3611, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3944, 1.3953, 1.4752

and 1.4872.


Daily Dow: (12,150) The 200-day simple moving average is 11,944. Monthly, annual, and semiannuavalue levels are 11,794, 11,491, 9,635 and 8,468 with daily, quarterly, weekly, and annual risky levelsat 12,474, 12,507, 12,650 and 13,890. The October 4th low was 10,404.49 with the May 2nd high at

12,876.00.



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S&P 500 (1258.5) The October 4th YTD low is 1074.77 with annual and monthly value levels at1210.7 and 1211.8, the 200-day at 1264.2, semiannual value levels at 981.3 and 855.7, and daily,

quarterly, weekly and annual risky levels at 1295.2, 1303.7, 1317.4 and 1562.9. The YTD high is1370.58.

NASDAQ (2650) The October 4th YTD low is 2298.89 with monthly, and annual value levels at 2588and 2335, semiannual value levels at 2199 and 2049, the 200-day at 2672, and daily, weekly andquarterly risky levels at 2721, 2782 and 2807, and the YTD high at 2887.75. My annual risky level is3243.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2321) The YTD low is 2034.92 with a monthly value level at 2282, the 200-day at 2289, semiannual value levels at 1951 and 1861, and daily, weekly and quarterly risky levels at2381, 2426, 2434 and 2440, the YTD high at 2437.42, and my annual risky level at 2590.

Dow Transports (4984) The October 4th YTD low is 3950.66 with monthly and semiannual valuelevels at 4752, 4335 and 3868, the 200-day at 4986, and daily, annual, weekly and quarterly riskylevels at 5155, 5179, 5294 and 5359, and the YTD high / all time high at 5627.85 on July 7 th.

Russell 2000 (746.79) The October 4th YTD low is 601.71 with a monthly value level at 695.30,semiannual value levels at 577.47 and 530.04, the 200-day at 768.92, and daily, weekly, annual andquarterly risky levels at 770.99, 795.55, 784.16 and 802.96, and the YTD high / all time high at 868.57on May 2nd.

The SOX (377.41) The October 4th YTD low is 322.24 with a monthly value level at 343.57, anannual value levels at 270.98, the 200-day at 397.17 and daily, weekly and quarterly risky level at386.95, 398.13 and 417.63, and the YTD high at 450.79.

Equity Fundamentals Stocks neutral following ValuEngines benchmark revisions. 70.9% of all stocks are undervalued / 29.1% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4 th 93.5%

of all stocks were undervalued. Nine sectors are overvalued and seven sectors are undervalued in a range from 10.7%

undervalued to 12.3% overvalued. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33%to 45%. Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.

VE Morning Briefing If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a FearlessPrediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

ValuTrader Model Portfolio If you want to learn how to Buy and Trade use this link and sign up:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V

ETF Weekly If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds usethis link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly BankingProfile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C


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ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investmenthelp based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VECapital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offe

to your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

Definition of MOJO This is my term for technical momentum. I use whats called 12x3x3 slowstochastic readings from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions

Value Level The price at which you establish an additional long position on share priceweakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.

Risky Level The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiplelong position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength tothe Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions

Value Level The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multipleshort position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weaknesto the Value Level.

Risky Level The price at which you establish an addition short position on share pricestrength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com

(800) 381-5576

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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go tohttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

stocks are less attractive on benchmark valuations update

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