ACT – Leading NATO

Military Transformation

Supreme

Allied

Commander

Transformation

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

PUBLICLY DISCLOSED21 October 2015 1

Strategic Foresight Analysis

Interim Update Workshop - II

RADM Pete GUMATAOTAO (US Navy)

Deputy Chief of Staff Strategic Plans and Policy

21-22 October 2015

ACT – Leading NATO

Military Transformation

Supreme

Allied

Commander

Transformation

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

21 October 2015 2

Strategic Foresight Analysis

Interim Update Workshop - II

Col Tibor Szabo (HUN AF)

Strategic Analysis BH, Strategic Plans and Policy

21-22 October 2015

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

PUBLICLY DISCLOSED

ACT – Leading NATO

Military Transformation

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

ACT – Leading NATO

Military Transformation

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

PUBLICLY DISCLOSED

INFORMS

What do the current trends

indicate about the world 15 or

more years in the future?

What could this mean for

future alliance operations?

What are NATO's future capability

requirements that should guide

targeting, development and

acquisition?

10 Instability Situations

5 Strategic Military Perspectives

Military Implications

INFORMS

NATO Defence Planning Process

15 Long-Range Trends

8 Emergent Trends

Long-Term Military Transformation

21 October 2015

These documents provide the critical first step in NATO’s

Long-Term Military Transformation (LTMT) effort

ACT – Leading NATO

Military Transformation

• Strategic Discussion

• Alignment of National Defence Plans

• NATO Defence Planning

• Capability Development

• Concept Development

• Doctrine, Training, Exercises,

Leadership, Education

5

Our proposal to the Nations to inform

“The Strategic Commanders recommend that NATO develops operationally agile

forces that are resilient, strategically aware, supported by proactive strategic

communications, and networked with a wide range of security partners.”

Bi-SCs’ best military advice on

long-term transformation.

21 October 2015 NATO UNCLASSIFIED

PUBLICLY DISCLOSED

ACT – Leading NATO

Military Transformation

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M

SF

AF

FA

O

The Way Ahead

OCT - SFA

Workshop

JUN - SFA

Workshop 2

SEP - SFA 2017

Published

SEP – FFAO

2015

Published

MAR- Instability

Situations

Workshop

JUN - FFAO

2018

Published

SEP – FFAO

Scoping

Workshop

MAR –

Feedback/Gap

Analysis Workshop

SEP - SFA

Workshop 3

MAR - SFA

Workshop 1

MAR-

Writing

Workshop

JUN- Military

Implications

Workshop

AUG- Writing

Workshop

DEC – SFA 15

Update

Published

21 October 2015 NATO UNCLASSIFIED

PUBLICLY DISCLOSED

ACT – Leading NATO

Military Transformation

Supreme

Allied

Commander

Transformation

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

21 October 2015 7

Strategic Foresight Analysis

Interim Update Workshop - II

Col Tibor Szabo

Strategic Analysis BH, Strategic Plans and Policy

21-22 October 2015

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

PUBLICLY DISCLOSED