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Strategic Outlook of African
Commercial Vehicle Market
Bharani Laksminarasimhan, Team Leader- Global On-Highway Commercial Vehicles
Shailap Kumar Mudgal, Senior Research Analyst
Derrick Chikanga, Research Analyst
September, 2013
2
Source: Africa Progress Report, 2010;
Frost & Sullivan analysis. Migration Urban Population, 2025
City with population > 5.0
million, 2025
Dakar 4.3 million
6.3 million
3.8 million 3.2 million
6.2 million
Algiers
Dares Salaam
Alexandria
Nairobi
Casablanca
Accra
Abidjan
Addis
Ababa
Ibadan
Douala
Cape Town Durban
5.6 million
3.6 million
4.1 million
3.2 million
3.1 million
4.7 million
6.2 million
3.5 million
Luanda 8.0 million
Johannesburg/
Pretoria/
Ekurhuleni
8.0 million
Urban Populations, Africa, 2025
Regions with Key Cities
Top Mega Trends in Africa: Urbanisation With an Annual Average Growth of 3.4%, Population in Several Sub-Saharan African Cities
Will Rise by 25% by 2025. By 2050, 60% of Africa’s Population Will be Urbanised
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Eastern Africa Middle Africa Northern Africa
Southern Africa Western Africa
Urb
an
Po
pu
lati
on
(‗0
00
)
Urban Population Forecast by Region, 1995-2025
3
Lagos
Luanda
Johannesburg/
Pretoria
Cairo
Dar es Salaam
Alexandria
Nairobi
Accra
Abidjan
Kinshasa
Addis Ababa
Main Corridors Cape Town
Durban
The Greater Ibadan Lagos Accra
Corridor
• Combined population of more
than 18 million
• Contributes combined GDP of
$127.6 million.
The North Delta Region
• Combined population of 77
million
• 3 emerging corridors:
Cairo-Suez
Cairo-Alexandria
Cairo-Ismailia
900 km Kampala-Nairobi-
Mombasa urban corridor
1,000 km Abidjan-Ouagadougou
Corridor
North-South Corridor
• Facilitate inter-regional trade
from Cape Town to Cairo.
• Free trade area comprising 533
million people
• Combined GDP of $833 billion,
or 58 percent of Africa’s GDP
Trans-Cunene Corridor
• Will link the Democratic Republic of
Congo with South Africa through
Angola and Namibia.
Ouagadougou
Ibadan
Top Mega Trends in Africa : Regional Integration Corridors Will Unlock Economic Potential of Landlocked Countries; Freight Movement Through
Road Set to be a Key Economic Driver Across the Continent
Source: UN-Habitat,2010 and Frost & Sullivan analysis. Secondary Corridors
Global CV Vision 2020: Urbanization Trends—Africa: 2012–2020
4
Global CV Vision 2020: Chinese Investments—Africa: 2012–2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
2002 2012 2022e
China-Africa Bilateral Trade,2002-2022
12
~200
~420
Bil
lio
n (
$)
• China became Africa’s largest trading partner
surpassing the U.S in 2010.
• Bilateral trade involves export of minerals, oil and gas
and other related materials which are critical for
Chinese growth.
• With slowing EU and U.S. economies, China will
increasingly look to improve trade ties with Africa. With
current growth rates, China and Africa will merge as
the largest trading partners in the world by 2015.
• Dedicated funds such as CAF(China-Africa
Fund) have channelized Chinese FDI inflows
into African economies thereby making China
the largest foreign investor in Africa.
• Chinese government has signed infrastructure
development agreements with as many as 20
African nations.
Top Mega Trends in Africa : Foreign Investment Increasing Foreign Investment Especially from China to Influence the Economical and Political
Environment in African Nations;
5
Market and Product Segmentations
North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
• Algeria
• Egypt
• Morocco
• South Africa
• Zambia
• Zimbabwe
• Botswana
• Namibia
• Angola
• Mozambique
• Mozambique
• Kenya
• Tanzania
• Uganda
• Nigeria
• Ghana
Light Trucks Medium Trucks Heavy Trucks Bus
3.5 ton ≤ GVW ≤ 6.5
ton 6.6 ton ≤ GVW ≤ 16 ton GVW greater than 16 ton MD Bus HD Bus
6
North African Market
7
Impact of Future Infrastructure Development on North Africa CV Market Creation of advanced transport infrastructure; likely to result in high demand for heavy duty
trucks used for transportation and haulage applications
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Truck and Bus Market: Transport Corridors Highway Countries Covered Distance
(Km)
Cairo-Dakar
Highway
Across Egypt, Libya, Tunisia,
Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania,
and Senegal
8,638
Trans-
Saharan
Highway
Links several other Trans-
African Highways: Cairo-
Dakar, Dakar-N’djamena,
Dakar-Lagos and Lagos-
Mombasa, also branches out
to Tunisia, Mali, Niamey in
Niger, and Chad
3,600
Berrechid
Beni Mellal
highway
Morocco 172
• With investments over $500 bln and catering
to the transportation demands of more than 50
million people using these highways, these
mega infrastructure development projects are
going to provide a boost to the commercial
vehicles market in the region.
8
From Macro—to—Micro – North Africa Further analysis of these critical trends that will cause wide ranging impact on the various sub-
segments of the CV market in North Africa by 2020
Mega Trends LCV HCV Buses
Urbanization – City as a
Customer
Social Trends
Economic Trends
Connectivity and
Convergence Trends
Future Infrastructure
Development
Political Shift
*Note: Degree of impact is based on quantitative and qualitative reasoning as well as the relative importance of each trend. For
example, trends in connectivity has a low impact on the Buses segment of the CV market
High Low Degree of Impact* Medium
E.g., Increase in
number of retail outlets,
Food Chains, etc.
E.g. New Ports, Airports,
Economic cities, &
Industrial Zones
E.g., Increase in Migrant
population, mobility between urban
clusters, increase in tourism, etc.
E.g., Integrated multi-modal transportation systems, High-
speed logistics, etc.
E.g., Increase in Migrant
population, mobility between
urban clusters, increase in
tourism, etc.
E.g., Increase in working
population and student
population
E.g., Development of
industrial zones and
economic corridors
E.g., Increase in
Industrialization,
Manufacturing, outsourcing,
etc.
E.g., Increase in
labour force
E.g., Real time
tracking, GPS, etc. E.g., Digital mapping and networking facilities, real time
logistics management, etc.
E.g., Change in Governance, Introduction of new policies,
reforms, regulations, etc. E.g., New regulations,
green initiatives, etc.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Truck and Bus Market: Macro-to-micro Analysis of Key Mega Trends, North Africa, 2020
9
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
North Africa Market Forecast North Africa emerging as a strategic hotspot for global CV manufacturers; Algeria leads the
region with close to 51 percent share of the total CV market
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Algeria Egypt Morocco
Bus HD Trucks MD Trucks LD Trucls
25.8%
55.5%
2012
27.7%
24.6%
15.4%
39,580 Sa
les
Un
its
Light Duty Trucks (LD 3.5T to 6.5T)
Medium Duty Trucks (MD 6.6 T to 16 T)
Heavy Duty Trucks (HD >16 T)
Medium Duty Bus (MD >25 to 45 seats)
Heavy Duty Bus (HD >45 seats)
2020
74,927
23.7%
28.5%
17%
Truck & Bus Market: Country wise Segment Market Shares, North Africa, 2012 & 2020
32.3%
65.1%
67.6%
34.8%
14.4%
6.5%
34.8%
18.7%
20.5%
25.9%
15.7%
30.8%
8.3% CAGR (Growth)
2012 Country Shares
10
North Africa—Competitive Benchmarking on the Basis of Segments: Downstream impact of polarization in truck segment evident in OEMs product portfolios
LD Truck MD Truck HD Truck Bus
Chevrolet
Hyundai
Mitsubishi
Mercedes
Renault
Scania
Iveco
JAC
Volvo
Tata Daewoo
Foton Motors
DAF
Isuzu
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
11
Global Market Share—By Country of Manufacturing Origin- North Africa Chinese imports currently account for nearly 1 in every 5 trucks and buses sold in the region
USA – 18.2% Chevrolet ,Ford
China – 19.7% JAC, FAW, JMC, Foton Motors, Shaanxi, King Long
Japan – 23.3% Mitsubishi, Isuzu, Toyota, Hino, Nissan
South Korea –13.7% Hyundai, Tata Daewoo
Europe – 25.1% Mercedes, Iveco, Renault,Volvo, DAF, Scania, MAN, VW
Truck and Bus Market: Country of Manufacturing Origin, North Africa, 2012
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. *Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy , Netherlands, Sweden, Turkey
12 P75A-18
Region OEMs CKD vs CBU Dealer
Distributor/Assembler
Country of Origin Impact
Egypt
Chevrolet CKD Assembly Al Mansour Automotive
American manufacturers
hold close to 70 percent
market share, leading in LD
truck and bus sales.
Hyundai CKD Assembly EIM(Egyptian International Motors)
Iveco CBU Imports Direct Sales
JAC CKD Assembly Direct Sales
Mercedes CKD Assembly MCV
Mitsubishi CKD Assembly Ghabbour Auto
Morocco
Isuzu CBU Imports CFAO Motors
Japanese and European
OEMs hold close to 46 per
cent and 44 percent market
share respectively in trucks
and bus sales.
MAN CBU Imports Direct Sales
Mitsubishi Fuso CKD Assembly Auto Hall
Renault CBU Imports Direct Sales
Scania CBU Imports Direct Sales
Volvo CBU Imports Direct Sales
Algeria
Foton Motors CBU Imports KIV
Chinese manufacturers lead
the market with 35 percent
market share followed by
European manufacturers with
29 percent market share.
Isuzu CBU Imports DIAMAL
JAC CBU Imports EMIN Auto
Hyundai CBU Imports Direct Sales
Volvo CBU imports Altruck Company
MAN CBU Imports MTC
Renault CBU Imports 10 Dealers across Algeria
Tata Daewoo CBU Imports Elsecom
North Africa- Truck and Bus Market : CKD vs CBU Despite sub-optimal dealer network, Chinese vehicles are in greater demand across the region
owing to lower price and increasing footprint of Chinese businesses in this region
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. *CKD (Complete knock down), CBU (Complete Built Unit)
13 P75A-18
Trucks & Bus Value Chain
Dealer
Component
Spare parts
Assembly
Vehicle Sales
Service
OEM
Assembly
Imports
Direct Sales
Service
Importers(Used Vehicle
Importers)
Used Vehicle Imports
Vehicle Sales
The entities involved in the sales of vehicles generate continuous revenues through service and sales of spare parts
Demand
Generation
Individual Repair
shops/service
stations
Truck and Buses Industry—Outlook of Value Chain- North Africa OEMs are likely to focus on supply base consolidation to improve market share and reduce
cost
Source; Frost & Sullivan analysis
• Chevrolet
• Hyundai
• Renault
• Mitsubishi
Fuso
• Volvo
• Scania
• MAN
• Foton
Motors
• Ford
• JAC
• Mercedes
• Isuzu
• Iveco
• DAF
• Ghabbour
Auto
• EIM
• MCV
• Auto Hall
• KIV
• DIAMAL
• Emin Auto
• MTC
• Elsecom
• AL
Mansour
Automotive
• Altruck
Company
OEMs
Assemblers
/Dealers
Truck and Bus Market: Value Chain Outlook, North Africa, 2012
14
The Last Word—Three Big Predictions for North Africa
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
2
Also the geopolitical situation are expected to improve in North Africa, especially in
Egypt, establishing this region as an assembly and logistics hub for Sub-Saharan
Africa. Egypt’s share of total CV sales to increase from 28 percent in 2012 to 39
percent by 2020.
3
North African commercial vehicle market is expected to be inclined towards heavy
duty trucks as they are expected to account for close to 29 percent of overall market
share by 2020 with Chinese manufacturers leading in terms of sales growth. By 2020
Chinese OEMs expected to account for nearly 24 percent of all light, medium, and
heavy trucks old in the region.
1
North Africa is poised for robust growth in the coming years which will directly impact
North African Light-Medium-Heavy duty truck and bus market. Sales are forecasted
to grow to 74,927 units by 2020. In these circumstances, global truck platforms
developed for BRIC markets will find relevance over the short-medium term.
15
Sub-Saharan African Market
16
Numerous projects are
aimed at improving Africa’s
transport infrastructure
Uganda Roads Value
($ Million)
Current road projects 548.8
Future road projects 2, 952.0
Kenya Roads Value
($ Million)
Current road projects 807.0
Future road projects 313.0
Kenya Ports Value
($ Million)
Current rail projects 332.0
Southern Sudan
Roads Value
($ Million)
Current rail projects 225.0
Transport projects
in Africa will drive
down the current
high cost of
transport, which is
hindering growth
and is among the
highest global
11c
8c
6c
5c
5c France
China
Southern Africa
East Africa
West Africa
4c USA
Transport Costs (US cents per km)
Solid red line - existing
transport routes, dotted
lines - planned
transport routes
Source: World Bank; Frost & Sullivan analysis.
African Transport Infrastructure
Development
Top Mega Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa: Future Infrastructure Transport Route Integration across the African Continent will Increase Inter-Continental
Trade and Drive Economic Growth
17
―Value for Many‖
Will Replace
―Value for Money‖
Tata Nano: The People‘s
Car At Low Price ($2,100)
Aravind Eye Hospital:
Conducts 286,000 Assembly-
Line type Cataract
Operations per year
Low Cost Housing:
Ranging from
$8,000-$17,000. Crowd Purchasing Schemes
Ford Business Model
Low cost mobile phones:
From $14 from companies
like Tata, MTS , Lawow and
G‘Five
Low cost tablets from $60 Low cost smart phones from
$40
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Photo Credits: Changemakers, carhubindia, itcportal.com, grameenfoundation
Top Mega Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa: New Business Models Business models will increasingly focus on “value for many” compared to “value for
Money”
18
From Macro—to—Micro Further analysis of these critical trends that will cause wide ranging impact on the various sub-
segments of the CV market in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2020
Mega Trends LD Trucks MD/HD Trucks Buses
Urbanisation
Regional Integration
New Business Models
Infrastructure
Development
*Note: Degree of impact is based on quantitative and qualitative reasoning as well as the relative importance of each trend. For
example, trends in connectivity has a low impact on the Buses segment of the CV market
High Low Degree of Impact* Medium
E.g., Increase in
number of retail outlets,
Food Chains, etc.
E.g. New Economic cities,
& Industrial Zones
E.g., Increase in Migrant
population, increase in tourism,
etc.
E.g., Development of
industrial zones and
economic corridors
E.g., Increase in
Industrialization,
Manufacturing, outsourcing,
etc.
E.g., Increase in
labour force
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Truck and Bus Market: Macro-to-micro Analysis of Key Mega Trends, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2020
E.g. New Ports, Airports,
Economic cities, &
Industrial Zones
E.g., Increased mobility between
urban clusters, increase in
tourism, etc.
E.g., Integrated multi-
modal transportation
systems, High-speed
logistics, etc.
E.g. New Ports, Airports,
Economic cities, &
Industrial Zones
E.g., Integrated multi-
modal transportation
systems, High-speed
logistics, etc.
E.g. Increased mobility between
urban clusters, increase in
tourism, etc.
19
Truck & Bus Market: Key Market Drivers and Restraints, Sub-Saharan African Market, 2012–2020
Denotes long-term impact
Denotes current impact
Driv
ers
R
estra
ints
Driv
ers
R
estra
ints
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis.
Affordability
of used and
low-cost
vehicles
Limited sources
of vehicle
financing
Cheap imports
from Asia
Significant
Infrastructure
development
Sustained
high
economic
growth
High
urbanisation
growth
Government
intervention
and
incentive
programmes
Market Drivers and Restraints: Infrastructure development and sustained economic growth are currently the main drivers of
commercial vehicles sales in Sub-Saharan Africa.
High production
costs
Limited
availability of
raw materials
Lack of
adequate
infrastructure
20 P75A-18
Trucks & Bus Value Chain
Dealer
Component
Spare parts
Assembly
Vehicle Sales
Service
OEM
Assembly
Imports
Direct Sales
Service
Importers(Used Vehicle
Importers)
Used Vehicle Imports
Vehicle Sales
The entities involved in the sales of vehicles generate continuous revenues through service and sales of spare parts
Demand
Generation
Individual Repair
shops/service
stations
Truck and Buses Industry—Outlook of Value Chain- Sub-Saharan
Africa OEMs are likely to focus on supply base consolidation to improve market share and
reduce cost
Source; Frost & Sullivan analysis
• Toyota
• Nissan
• Mazda
• Ford
• Chevrolet
Utility
• Isuzu
• MAN
• Iveco
• Mercedes
Benz
• Hino
• Fuso
• Freightliner
• Scania
• TATA
• Volvo
• VDL
• Renault
• Foton
• DongFEng
• PACCAR
• Navistar
• Hyundai
• Toyota
• Nissan
• General
Motors
• Ford
• Mercedes
Benz
• Kenya
Vehicle
Manufactur
ers (KVM)
• INNOSON
Vehicle
Manufacturi
ng (IVM)
Major OEMs Assemblers
/Dealers
Truck and Bus Market: Value Chain Outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012
21
Global Market Share—By Country of Manufacturing Origin- Sub-
Saharan Africa Chinese imports currently account for nearly 1 in every 5 trucks and buses sold in the region
USA Chevrolet ,Ford, Navistar
China JAC, FAW, JMC, Foton Motors, Shaanxi, King Long, Dongfeng, CNHTC
Japan Mitsubishi, Isuzu, Toyota, Hino, Nissan
Europe Mercedes, Iveco, Renault,Volvo, DAF, Scania, MAN, VW
Truck and Bus Market: Country of Manufacturing Origin, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy , Netherlands, Sweden, Turkey
LD Trucks : 128,669
MD Trucks : 23,319
HD Trucks : 11,877
Buses : 3,805
Total : 167,670
SOUTHERN AFRICA
LD Trucks : 17,000
MD Trucks : 11,400
HD Trucks : 3,900
Buses : 1,900
Total : 34,200
WEST AFRICA
EAST AFRICA
LD Trucks : 11,219
MD Trucks : 6,908
HD Trucks : 3,098
Buses : 600
Total : 21,825
India and Korea Tata, Ashok, Hyundai
22
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012..
Sub-Saharan Africa‘s Commercial Vehicles Market In 2012, South Africa contributed the bulk of both imported used trucks and new cars sales in Sub-Saharan
Africa
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Truck Market: New and Used Truck Sales, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012
LD Trucks, 75.0% LD Trucks, 69.0%
MD Trucks, 19.0% MD Trucks, 21.0%
HD Trucks, 6.0% HD Trucks, 10.0%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Imported Used Truck Sales New Truck Sales
Un
it S
ale
s
• In 2012, LD trucks contributed the bulk of both imported used trucks and new truck sales. Most imported
used trucks came from Europe and Asia, while new trucks where either manufactured in South Africa or
were low-cost vehicles from Asia.
23
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012..
Sub-Saharan Africa‘s Commercial Vehicles Market Between 2013 and 2020 all Sub-Saharan African economies are expected to achieve positive growth. This is
expected to drive growth in the truck and bus markets
Truck and Bus Sales: Economic Growth, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2020
Source: IMF and Frost & Sullivan analysis.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Unit Sales Growth 5.8 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.8 6.5 6.8
Economic Growth 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Gro
wth
Rate
s (
%)
Unit Sales Growth Economic Growth
24
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
CAGR:6.3%
Sub-Saharan Africa‘s Commercial Vehicles Market Assuming a stable economic environment across the sub-Saharan African region, the trucks and buses market
is expected to achieve steady growth and a compound annual growth rate of 6.3 percent.
Truck and Bus Sales: Vehicle Sales Growth, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2020
LD Trucks MD Trucks HD Trucks Buses
CAGR (%) 6.4 6.0 6.0 5.8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Buses 6,305 6,657 7,040 7,444 7,862 8,303 8,786 9,292 9,887
HD Trucks 18,875 19,944 21,132 22,386 23,686 25,059 26,555 28,152 30,021
MD Trucks 41,627 43,980 46,568 49,301 52,134 55,126 58,642 62,134 66,104
LD Trucks 156,888 166,010 176,425 187,394 198,747 210,782 225,537 240,751 257,588
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000 U
nit
Sa
les
70.1%
18.6%
8.4%
2.8%
2012
LD Trucks MD Trucks
HD Trucks Buses
70.8%
18.2%
8.3%
2.7%
2020
LD Trucks MD Trucks
HD Trucks Buses
223,695
363,600
25
Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Sub-Saharan Africa‘s Commercial Vehicles Market South Africa contributed the bulk of commercial vehicle and bus sales in 2012
WEST AFRICA EAST AFRICA
SOUTHERN AFRICA
LD Trucks : 17,000
MD Trucks : 11,400
HD Trucks : 3,900
Buses : 1,900
Total : 34,200
Truck and Bus Sales: Vehicle Sales, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012
LD Trucks : 128,669
MD Trucks : 23,319
HD Trucks : 11,877
Buses : 3,805
Total : 167,670
LD Trucks : 11,219
MD Trucks : 6,908
HD Trucks : 3,098
Buses : 600
Total : 21,825
• In 2012, the top five Sub-Saharan Africa truck and bus markets contributed 86.3 percent to total vehicle
and bus sales.
Country Percentage Market
Share (%)
South Africa 63.7
Nigeria 10.1
Ghana 5.2
Kenya 4.4
Tanzania 3.0
*Other 13.7
Total 100
*Others include Zambia, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Botswana, Mozambique, Angola, and Uganda
Market Share, 2012
26
The Last Word—Three Big Predictions- Sub-Saharan Africa Overall the market is expected to achieve fairly high growth and a CAGR of 6.3 percent
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
2 Economic growth is expected to be the major driver of demand for commercial
vehicles. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth rate is anticipated to average 6.0
percent throughout the forecasting period.
3
In 2012, South Africa contributed 63.7 percent to total commercial vehicles sales. It is
expected to continue dominating the commercial vehicles market till 2020. This market
is also expected to emerge as a production/assembly hub for several Sub-Saharan
markets in future.
1 Between 2012 and 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa’s commercial vehicles market is
expected growth by 62.5 percent. Furthermore, it is expected to achieve a CAGR of
6.3 percent during this period.
27
Contact Details
Bharani Lakshminarshiman Industry Analyst, Commercial Vehicles
Automotive and Transportation
91.44.6681.4021
Derrick Chikanga Research Analyst
Automotive & Transportation Practice
0027 21 680 3204
Shailap Kumar Sr. Research Analyst
Automotive & Transportation Practice
(020) 40778892
Jeannette Garcia Corporate Communications
Automotive and Transportation
+1. 210.477.8427