Strategies for Optimizing Strategies for Optimizing Scientific Productivity for Future Scientific Productivity for Future

Observatories: Observatories:

A “Flat World” for Astronomical Research

Discussion TopicsDiscussion Topics• Science topics that the 8-10 m telescopes will be able to

address in the E-ELT era.

• Will the 8-10m telescopes be mere support telescopes or will they be able to reserve a scientific niche?

• Will the ELTs be latest machines we astronomers will ever be able to build for economic or technical reason? If so, should the role of the 8-10 m telescopes be different from what it is envisaged now?

• Will observational astronomers become fully and forever detached from the telescopes, as they increase in complexity and the pressure for its use makes them unreachable?

Observatory Productivity:1990’sObservatory Productivity:1990’sC.R. Benn, S.F. Sanchez, Astro-ph, 17 October, 2000C.R. Benn, S.F. Sanchez, Astro-ph, 17 October, 2000

Observatory Productivity:1990’sObservatory Productivity:1990’sC.R. Benn, S.F. Sanchez, Astro-ph, 17 October, 2000C.R. Benn, S.F. Sanchez, Astro-ph, 17 October, 2000

“The strong showing by 1-m and 2-m telescopes in the 1990s augurs well for the

continued scientific impact of 4-m telescopes in the era of 8-m telescopes.”

Observatory Productivity:2000’sObservatory Productivity:2000’sJ.P. Madrid, D. Macchetto, Astro-ph, 28 January, 2009J.P. Madrid, D. Macchetto, Astro-ph, 28 January, 2009

Three Strategies for Three Strategies for Scientific ProductivityScientific Productivity

Type I—Full Service: Well resourced observatory providing a wide range of observing capabilities and services.

Type II—Vertically Integrated: optimized place in the “food chain”, synergy and value added with other major astronomical facilities

Type III—Laterally integrated: strategic relationships with other observatories in its class

Type I: Full ServiceType I: Full ServiceSpace Telescope Science Institute

– $50M/yr operating budget

– ~400 staff, strong user support

– $20 M/yr grant support

– $3M/yr outreach budget

– Wide range of instrumentation

– Data pipelines, robust data archive

VLT, Subaru, others

? NOAO: no longer a viable strategy after ~2000

Type II: Vertically IntegratedType II: Vertically IntegratedValue Added Synergy With Major Observatories Value Added Synergy With Major Observatories

Blanco 4m identification of Type I Supernovae/HST and other follow up

Keck AO synergy with HST: ir and vis imagery at same spatial scales.

Type II: Vertically IntegratedType II: Vertically IntegratedValue Added Synergy With Major Observatories Value Added Synergy With Major Observatories

? NOAO envisioned as “gateway to Gemini”? Gemini as part of the “Decade of Infrared” Triad

Type III: Laterally IntegratedType III: Laterally IntegratedStrategic Relationships with Other Comparable ObservatoriesStrategic Relationships with Other Comparable Observatories

• Gemini time exchange with Subaru, and Keck• NOAO: Organizational focus on U.S.

telescopes working as a “system”– Telescope System Instrumentation Program (TSIP)

provides instrumentation and access for 6-10 m telescopes

– Renewing Small Telescopes for Astronomical Research (ReSTAR) improves access and performance for small telescopes

ReSTARReSTAR

• Concern within US that small telescope access would be sacrificed in era of 30 m class telescopes

• Effort to scientifically link1-6 m telescopes 8-30 m telescopes

• However, much stronger role identified in further optimizing 1-6 m science

Major ReSTAR Science ThemesMajor ReSTAR Science Themes• Synoptic and time-critical observations of rapidly moving solar system objects

such as comets and asteroids.• In the rapidly growing field of exo-planet studies, these telescopes are well-suited

time domain studies of exo-planets transiting in front of their parent stars and for follow up of microlensing events.

• Studies for Star forming regions and of the inter-stellar medium via wide field imaging in both broad and narrow-band filters.

• Stellar interferometry and astero-seismology for detailed two and three dimensional studies of individual stars.

• Synoptic imaging and spectroscopic studies of variable stars and stellar clusters.• Synoptic photometric and spectroscopic observations of extra-galacitc compact

objects to study the physics of accretion disks.• Wide field surveys for medium to high redshift galaxies to study large scale

structure in the Universe (Big-Boss, Dark Energy Survey, etc.

Strategies for the Future:Strategies for the Future:A Flat WorldA Flat World

A Flat WorldA Flat World• In economics: the convergence of technology and

social factors that allowed India, China, etc. to become part of the global supply chain for services and manufacturing, creating an explosion of wealth in the middle class.

A Flat WorldA Flat World• In economics: the convergence of technology and

social factors allowed the creation of a global, web-enabled playing field that allows for multiple forms of collaboration – the sharing of knowledge and work – in real time, without regard to geography, distance, or in the near future, even language.

A Flat WorldA Flat World• In economics: the convergence of technology and

social factors allowed the creation of a global, web-enabled playing field that allows for multiple forms of collaboration – the sharing of knowledge and work – in real time, without regard to geography, distance, or in the near future, even language.

• In astronomy: the convergence of technology, economics and sociology that creates a new (level) playing field in which competitiveness is no longer dominated by aperture size alone.

Factor 1Factor 1TechnologyTechnology

Advances in Detectors + Advances in Information Technology

Growth in CCDs vs. GlassGrowth in CCDs vs. Glass

Current Data Holdings in USCurrent Data Holdings in USUS Archives 2010 Holdings

TBGROWTH

RATE TB/yr

STScI 113 65Goddard (HEASARC) 70 12Chandra Science Center 14 1.5Spitzer Science Center 26 6NASA/IPAC (IRSA) 50 50NASA/IPAC (NED) 5 0.2SAO Astrophysics Data Sys 10 0.5

TOTAL SPACE 288 135.2     NOAO 47 10NRAO 70 50GEMINI 7 0.9KECK 4 1.5SMA 4 0.6Arecibo 40 55Sloan Digital Sky Survey 88 --

TOTAL GROUND 260 118

The Result--The Result--High Impact ObservatoriesHigh Impact Observatories

• SDSS: 2,500 publications, 2/3rds by authors not part of Sloan the consortium

• HST: 700 publications per year, ½ of which are from archival data. 1,400 on HDF to date.

• CFHT: Mega Cam Super Nova Legacy Survey• NOAO: to undertake

– Dark Energy Survey on Blanco: large CCD mosaic camera

– possibly BigBOSS on Mayall: baryon acoustic oscillation survey using a 4000 fiber spectrograph

Factor 2Factor 2EconomicsEconomics

Shifting Investment Strategy

Instruments vs. Telescope

Characteristic Instrument CostsCharacteristic Instrument Costs

Cost of Present and Future Cost of Present and Future Instruments World-wideInstruments World-wide

From Simons et. al. SurveyFrom Simons et. al. Survey

Optical Infrared

Current $400,000 $3,750,000

Future $6,600,000 $5,000,000

Factor 3Factor 3SociologySociology

The Vanishing Lone Astronomer

Growth in Research TeamsGrowth in Research TeamsAuthor Count for top 100 papersAuthor Count for top 100 papers

SummarySummaryFactors that will Flatten Factors that will Flatten

the Astronomical Landscapethe Astronomical Landscape• A data enabled research capability fueled

by rapid technology advances which will democratize access to information;

• Shifting telescope economics that focus new investment strategies, and

• An evolving trend towards larger highly multiplexed research teams that cross institutional and national lines

Observing Programs In A Flat Observing Programs In A Flat WorldWorld

BackupBackup

Current Landscape for US AstronomyCurrent Landscape for US Astronomy• Global financial crisis focused attention on the need to

invest in science and technology, including astronomy.• US Decadal Survey under way. Major issues:

– Revalidating scientific priority of 30 m class telescope, defining path forward on one or two such telescopes

– Committing to a new start for Large Survey Telescope– Establishing Gemini next generation instruments– Providing access to “system” of telescopes

Citation Rate vs. Author CountCitation Rate vs. Author Count

Opportunity Cost per “Night”Opportunity Cost per “Night”

Evolution in Information TechnologyEvolution in Information Technology• Aided human eye

– Large information content, low recording rate

• Photographic Plate– Large information content (1 MB/cm2, ~3 GB/plate)– Moderate recording rate (QE ~2-4%)– Analysis and distribution limited

• 2-d photon counting arrays (4kx4k)– Large information content (30 – 300 MB)– High recording rate (high QE)– Analysis can be automated– Distribution widespread (tape, CD, internet)

• 3-d energy resolving arrays– Enormous information content & data rates– 12k x 12k x 100(l) x 2 Bytes: 100 GB

Paradigm Shift Paradigm Shift In Telescope EconomicsIn Telescope Economics

• For the 100-inch on Mt Wilson the least expensive item was the photographic plate (guided by an inexpensive astronomer)

• Over time the cost of the instrument has slowly risen (e.g. HETDEX on HET, ODI on WIYN)

• The cost of the telescope is negligible in highly multiplexed projects (e.g. SDSS)

• Future suggests highly multiplexed, highly focused, highly expensive instruments.

Contributing FactorsContributing Factors• Scientific Drivers:

– Ultra wide-field surveys which need Giga pixel CCD mosaic focal planes in the visible

– Fundamental cosmological questions require the discovery and study of large numbers of very distant objects shifted into the IR.

– Dust obscured regions at high spatial resolution• Technical Drivers:

– High cost of IR detectors (available only from industry)– High cost of AO

Synergy with HSTSynergy with HST

Cosmic DiscoveryCosmic DiscoveryMartin Harwit, 1981Martin Harwit, 1981

Cosmic DiscoveryCosmic DiscoveryMartin Harwit, 1981Martin Harwit, 1981

Cosmic DiscoveryCosmic DiscoveryMartin Harwit, 1981Martin Harwit, 1981

Cosmic DiscoveryCosmic DiscoveryMartin Harwit, 1981Martin Harwit, 1981