stratospheric ozone: concepts and interactions with … · 2010. 4. 1. · depletion-> o3 hole...
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STRATOSPHERIC OZONE: CONCEPTS AND INTERACTIONS WITH CLIMATE
Slimane BEKKI (LATMOS-IPSL)
° Background on Antarctic stratospheric ozone
° Future ozone projections
° Impact on tropospheric climate
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Stratospheric circulation driven by tropospheric wave forcing
Global distribution of O3 concentration and general circulationOZONE GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION
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Month
Ozone column (Dobson units)Latitude
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products of replacement
Protocols are working
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very cold and isolated polar vortex where the chemistry is perturbed (ClO increase, O3 depletion)
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1/3 drop
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Ozone column (DU) from TOMS satellite
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CO2 increase
CO2 fixed
O3 c
hang
e si
nce
1980
(%
)
Year1980 2100
FUTURE OZONE AT NH MID-LATITUDES
O3 = f(CO2)
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SCHEMATIC OF A CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE MODEL
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List of CCMs and their origins
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SIMULATED AND OBSERVED MINIMUM ANTARCTIC OZONE COLUMN (1960-2009)
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SIMULATED AND OBSERVED MINIMUM ANTARCTIC OZONE COLUMN (1960-2009)
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SIMULATED AND OBSERVED OZONE HOLE AREAS
O3 col < 220DU
difference with 1960-65 O3
based O3 max gradients
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Observed (1979-2000) Model forced by O3
depletion
-> O3 hole may have impacted Antarctic surface climate
Impact of ‘O3 hole’ on tropospheric climate: climate model forced with polar O3 depletion (all other forcings cste)
Geopotential Height at 500 hPa
Surface temperature
December-May trend
Observed (1969-2000)
Gillett & Thompson, Science, 2003Model forced by O3
depletion
Similar features in observations and model :
Falling geopotentialheights poleward of 60°S and rising geopotentialheights in the middle latitudes
Significant surface cooling over most of Antarctica butg warming over Antarctic Peninsula & Patagonia
Intensification of surface westerly flow at around 50°S to 60°S (not shown).
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Future Polar Jet: CCMs versus AR4 models (with/without ozone recovery)
2000-2050 summer trend in Zonal Wind
all AR4CCMs
AR4: fixed O3AR4: O3 recovery
CCMs: deceleration on the poleward side of jet (decrease in SAM).
Multi-AR4 mean: opposite response
But AR4 models with O3 recovery are closer to CCMs than to AR4 models with fixed O3.
Son et al., Science, 2008
O3 recovery
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Past et future SH lower stratosphere : Trends in CCMs versus AR4 (with/without ozone varying)
Polar O3 at 50 hPa (SOND) Polar T at 100 hPa (ONDJ)
Extra-tropical tropopause pressure (DJF)
Past: 1960-1999
CCM past CCM future
Future: 2000-2079
X
AR4 varying O3
Past:1960-1999
Past: 1960-1999
Future: 2000-2079
Future: 2000-2079
AR4 fixed O3
: ERA-40 X
CCMs and AR4 varying O3 models give similar results
AR4 fixed O3 models give completely different results
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Latitude of westerly jet at 850 hPa (DJF)
Past et future SH troposphere : Trends in CCMs versus AR4 (with/without ozone varying)
Latitude of the poleward boundary of Hadley cell (DJF)
CCM past CCM future
Past: 1960-1999
Past: 1960-1999
Future: 2000-2079
Future: 2000-2079
AR4 varying O3
AR4 fixed O3
CCMs and AR4 varying O3 models give similar results
AR4 fixed O3 models give different results
’O3 hole’ affects SH troposheric climate (->IPCC)
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IMPACT OF SOLAR VARIABILITY ON SSTs
Son et al, 2010
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MESSAGES
° Ozone = f(CFCs, GHGs)
° Important for Antarctic climate, but difficult to predict