strengthening core metrics but not out of...

14
Annual Report Analysis FY20 Strengthening Core Metrics but Not out of Woods The bank’s annual report analysis shows strengthening of core metrics – improving cost efficiencies, decline in NFB exposures, better capital consumption (decline in RWA/total assets), rise in PPoP/assets (even ex of treasury gains), declining concentration in deposits and advances, and reduced exposure to vulnerable sectors. Despite highest branch openings in a year during FY20, opex/assets and CI ratios improved during the year owing to branch size optimization and cross sell opportunities. However, corporate book was back to making loss after reporting a profit in FY19 owing to elevated slippages & credit costs, with incremental NPAs mainly coming from the SME (trade) and FI sector. While the several initiatives implemented under the bank’s GPS strategy including RoROC based loan pricing, leveraging on the one-Axis strategy, strong liability focus, and strengthening digital and analytics have helped the bank be in a better position, the onset of COVID-19 is likely to defer normalization in RoE. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation with TP of Rs510, valuing the bank at 1.7x FY22E P/ABV. Strengthening PPoP profile with improving cost metrics The bank’s core PPoP profile (ex-treasury gains) has improved over previous year despite decline in share of fee income led by weaker corporate fee (shift in focus towards working capital loans) and high interest reversals. Additionally, even with continued investment in branch expansion (highest branch openings in a year), costs were controlled during FY20, with decline in opex/average assets and CI ratio. We therefore see increased sustainability in core earnings profile, with higher share of fee coming from retail segment and improving cost efficiencies. Conservative provisioning practices aid asset quality While slippages were elevated at 4% during FY20 impacting its asset quality, Axis Bank’s asset recognition and provisioning standards continue to remain best in class with full provisioning on unsecured products like PL/CC upon asset being classified as NPA. The bank has also been making additional provisions against some weak yet standard stressed assets over the last few quarters. In all, the bank holds standard asset provisions of around Rs59bn or ~1% of loans, including COVID related provisions and contingency provisions made against stressed standard assets. Historically, Axis bank has had a more aggressive write-off policy compared to peers, but recoveries from technically written off pool has also been higher. Though we are less worried on asset quality risks from the bank’s retail portfolio owing to lower asset side risks (lower CoF), normalization in corporate stress pool is likely to get delayed with further downgrades into the ‘BB and below’ pool, even as rating composition has improved over the years. Post COVID 19, the bank has changed its incremental sourcing strategy in favour of secured products. Liability profile improving but lags large peers The bank’s focus towards building a granular liability franchise saw sustained momentum with 22% YoY growth in average CASA+retail deposits. Growth in average CASA balances at 12% has fared better than industry. However, CASA/int bearing liabilities for Axis remains lower than large private peers and overall CoF is higher, indicating scope for further improvement in liability profile. CMP Rs 440 Target / Upside Rs 510 / 16% BSE Sensex 36,607 NSE Nifty 10,768 Scrip Details Equity / FV Rs 5,643mn / Rs 2 Market Cap Rs 1,240bn USD 16bn 52-week High/Low Rs 774/Rs 286 Avg. Volume (no) 42,587,400 NSE Symbol AXISBANK Bloomberg Code AXSB IN Shareholding Pattern Mar'20(%) Promoters 16.0 MF/Banks/FIs 23.0 FIIs 45.5 Public / Others 15.5 Axis Bank Relative to Sensex VP Research: Mona Khetan Tel: +91 22 40969762 E-mail: [email protected] Associate: Shreesh Chandra Tel: +91 22 40969714 E-mail: [email protected] 50 70 90 110 130 150 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 AXSB SENSEX Axis Bank Accumulate July 10, 2020

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  • An

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    20

    Strengthening Core Metrics but Not out of Woods The bank’s annual report analysis shows strengthening of core metrics – improving cost efficiencies, decline in NFB exposures, better capital consumption (decline in RWA/total assets), rise in PPoP/assets (even ex of treasury gains), declining concentration in deposits and advances, and reduced exposure to vulnerable sectors. Despite highest branch openings in a year during FY20, opex/assets and CI ratios improved during the year owing to branch size optimization and cross sell opportunities. However, corporate book was back to making loss after reporting a profit in FY19 owing to elevated slippages & credit costs, with incremental NPAs mainly coming from the SME (trade) and FI sector. While the several initiatives implemented under the bank’s GPS strategy including RoROC based loan pricing, leveraging on the one-Axis strategy, strong liability focus, and strengthening digital and analytics have helped the bank be in a better position, the onset of COVID-19 is likely to defer normalization in RoE. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation with TP of Rs510, valuing the bank at 1.7x FY22E P/ABV.

    Strengthening PPoP profile with improving cost metrics The bank’s core PPoP profile (ex-treasury gains) has improved over previous year despite decline in share of fee income led by weaker corporate fee (shift in focus towards working capital loans) and high interest reversals. Additionally, even with continued investment in branch expansion (highest branch openings in a year), costs were controlled during FY20, with decline in opex/average assets and CI ratio. We therefore see increased sustainability in core earnings profile, with higher share of fee coming from retail segment and improving cost efficiencies. Conservative provisioning practices aid asset quality While slippages were elevated at 4% during FY20 impacting its asset quality, Axis Bank’s asset recognition and provisioning standards continue to remain best in class with full provisioning on unsecured products like PL/CC upon asset being classified as NPA. The bank has also been making additional provisions against some weak yet standard stressed assets over the last few quarters. In all, the bank holds standard asset provisions of around Rs59bn or ~1% of loans, including COVID related provisions and contingency provisions made against stressed standard assets. Historically, Axis bank has had a more aggressive write-off policy compared to peers, but recoveries from technically written off pool has also been higher. Though we are less worried on asset quality risks from the bank’s retail portfolio owing to lower asset side risks (lower CoF), normalization in corporate stress pool is likely to get delayed with further downgrades into the ‘BB and below’ pool, even as rating composition has improved over the years. Post COVID 19, the bank has changed its incremental sourcing strategy in favour of secured products.

    Liability profile improving but lags large peers The bank’s focus towards building a granular liability franchise saw sustained momentum with 22% YoY growth in average CASA+retail deposits. Growth in average CASA balances at 12% has fared better than industry. However, CASA/int bearing liabilities for Axis remains lower than large private peers and overall CoF is higher, indicating scope for further improvement in liability profile.

    CMP Rs 440

    Target / Upside Rs 510 / 16%

    BSE Sensex 36,607

    NSE Nifty 10,768

    Scrip Details

    Equity / FV Rs 5,643mn / Rs 2

    Market Cap Rs 1,240bn

    USD 16bn

    52-week High/Low Rs 774/Rs 286

    Avg. Volume (no) 42,587,400

    NSE Symbol AXISBANK

    Bloomberg Code AXSB IN

    Shareholding Pattern Mar'20(%)

    Promoters 16.0

    MF/Banks/FIs 23.0

    FIIs 45.5

    Public / Others 15.5

    Axis Bank Relative to Sensex

    VP Research: Mona Khetan Tel: +91 22 40969762

    E-mail: [email protected]

    Associate: Shreesh Chandra Tel: +91 22 40969714

    E-mail: [email protected]

    50

    70

    90

    110

    130

    150Ju

    l-19

    Aug-1

    9

    Sep-1

    9

    Oct-19

    Nov-

    19

    Dec-

    19

    Jan-2

    0

    Feb

    -20

    Mar-

    20

    Apr-

    20

    May-

    20

    Jun-2

    0

    Jul-20

    AXSB SENSEX

    Axis Bank

    Accumulate

    July 10, 2020

  • July 10, 2020 2

    Subsidiaries gaining scale, yet to contribute meaningfully to Consolidated PAT

    Bank’s key non-banking subsidiaries including those in asset management (Axis MF), lending (Axis Finance), capital markets (Axis Capital), retail broking (Axis Securities) make ~8-10% of its normalised profit. They however remain central to the principle of “One Axis” and have an important role to play in the Bank’s GPS strategy. During the year, the Bank has made significant senior talent infusions across its subsidiaries in Axis AMC, Axis Capital, Axis Finance and Axis Securities.

    Axis Capital remains in leadership position in the ECM segment, with highest number of transactions (17 transactions across IPO, QIP and Rights). Axis Capital contributed 24% to the total earnings of the subsidiaries and reported a PAT of Rs 1bn and RoE of 27% for the year FY19.

    Axis Mutual Fund maintained its position as the fastest growing AMC amongst the Top 10 players and is now the eighth largest player with over 5% share in the industry AUM. The company reported strong growth in net profits by 121% to Rs 1.2bn and a RoE of 33%. The company manages 55 mutual fund schemes with a closing AUM of Rs 1.16tn as compared to closing AUM of Rs 877bn in FY19.

    Axis Securities underwent restructuring during the year with focus on brokerage business. It also originates retail loans for the bank. The retail brokerage firm reported 8% growth in cumulative client base to 2.27 million. The subsidiary achieved a trading volume of Rs 31.8tn thereby registering a growth of 57% in FY20. Axis Securities opened 177,000 broking accounts were opened as compared to 257,000 in FY19.

    Axis Finance, the bank’s NBFC arm has grown its loan book at a 30% CAGR in last 5 years while delivering healthy returns, with the objective of becoming a consumer-focused lending company. As a result of higher investments, Axis Finance’s net profit decreased by 15% YoY to Rs 1.9bn, but contributed 46% to total earnings of the subsidiaries.

    Key Highlights from the Annual Report

    Wholesale: the sector saw refinancing led growth from larger companies who have been consolidating their banking relationships and from those bidding for NCLT led resolution cases that has benefitted private banks. The bank has been leveraging on one-Axis strategy wherein providing comprehensive solutions to clients across lending and transaction Banking along with our subsidiaries like Axis Capital and Axis AMC resulted in deepening of relationship with the Bank’s large and strategic clients. On the wholesale side, the bank is looking to increase focus and generate higher business from sectors that are likely to remain less affected by the crisis, while also taking selective bets on certain clients in the stressed sectors for the longer term. Focus on gaining a higher share of shorter tenure working capital and transaction banking businesses continue. The bank now has focused coverage groups not only for large corporates, strategic clients and government, but also for segments like MNCs, financial institutions, mid corporates and commercial banking.

  • July 10, 2020 3

    SME: Rebuilt the commercial banking business over FY20 across sales and credit. Consequently, the SME book is well diversified and quality remains steady with 85% of it secured by hard collaterals and with high proportion of working capital loans. 59% of SME book qualifies for PSL lending. Over 85% of the SME portfolio is secured, backed by collaterals and 78% of the book is towards working capital financing. We are entering this COVID-19 led cycle with a much de-risked book in the SME space that is well diversified across sectors and geographies. Retail: The Bank’s strong data analytics engine and robust proprietary risk scorecards have ensured superior underwriting across the retail portfolio and more specifically in unsecured loans. On the unsecured lending side that constitutes around 20% of the retail book, over 80% is from salaried segment. More than 80% of retail assets are sourced from existing customers (both secured and unsecured). During the fiscal 2020, over 80% of retail assets originations were from the Bank’s existing customers with branches contributing 47% to the overall sourcing of retail assets. The proportion of retail assets sourced through digital means have been steadily increasing with over 44% of personal loans in fiscal 2020 sourced digitally. During the year, the bank made changes to the organisation structure in Retail with creation of separate liability sales vertical to increase focus on new customer acquisition on the CASA (Current and Savings Account) and Retail Term Deposit (RTD) side even as branches focused on deepening the relationship with existing customers. Fee income: Though the retail fees has been growing at healthy pace in last few years, the recent economic slowdown is likely to impact fee growth. Higher cross sell income expected by leveraging customer data available within One Axis. New initiative includes creating new third party products vertical to maintain focus on non-credit fee income. Liability: The wholesale deposits of the Bank, where the Government business plays a key role, have grown at 19% during the year on a daily average basis. During the year, we opened 478 new branches which has been the highest in any given financial year. However, bank continues to optimise the branch sizes with emphasis on higher efficiency, customer centricity and relationship management to drive cross sell opportunities from existing customers. The digital channel is scaling up well with 62% of savings account sourced digitally through tab while over 60% of fixed deposits too were acquired digitally. The bank has over the course of the year put in several enablers and initiated multiple projects towards achieving higher CASA growth. COVID-19 and ahead

    Given the signs of economic slowdown visible since the start of fiscal 2020, the bank had recalibrated their score cards and reduced the limits across unsecured products like credit cards and personal loans while taking corrective actions cutting down on the risk wherever required. Post COVID-19 the bank has made changes to their incremental sourcing strategy in favour of secured products and which will now be based on the ‘macro COVID-19 risk model’ and ‘geography micro segment score’. The bank expects the economy to take time to normalise as all sectors will sooner or later get impacted directly or indirectly. Given the uncertainty induced post COVID-19, bank may delay branch network expansion in the immediate near term The bank continues to focus on secured lending products like mortgages, LAP and small business banking loans through branch channels; while leveraging on cross sell opportunities for liability and investment products to generate fee income.

  • July 10, 2020 4

    Story in Charts Improving cost efficiencies despite weaker

    fee income and high interest reversals Core PPoP profile improving despite

    weaker fee income

    Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART

    While overall fee has been impacted by change in corporate strategy, retail fee shows strong prospects

    Source: Company, DART

    Non fund-based exposure has been trending down

    Source: Company, DART

    40

    46 48 46

    45

    39 41

    46 45 42

    2.0

    2.1 2.2 2.1

    2.0

    1.8

    2.0

    2.2

    2.4

    20

    30

    40

    50

    FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    Cost / Core Income (%) Cost / Income (%)Opex / Avg Assets (%)

    3.0 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5

    3.2 3.1

    2.6 2.52.7

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20Core PPoP / Assets (%) PPoP / Assets (%)

    1.38% 1.37% 1.36% 1.28%

    0.70%0.76%

    0.82% 0.83%

    0.0%

    0.4%

    0.8%

    1.2%

    1.6%

    FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    Fee / Avg assets (%) Retail Fee / Avg Assets (%)

    4.8 5.8 6.6

    7.6 9.1

    1.0 1.1

    1.2 1.2

    1.1

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    Fund Based Non Fund Based

    (Rs tn)

  • July 10, 2020 5

    Corporate segment back to loss after reporting a profit in FY19

    Source: Company, DART

    Increased share of short term loans is a positive

    Source: Company, DART

    Capital consumption has been improving

    Source: Company, DART

    33.1 26.6 28.2 18.5 18.3

    55.6

    -13.2

    -52.4

    4.2

    -9.3

    27.4

    36.6 20.0 39.0 49.7

    7.9

    9.5 9.8

    8.1 9.2

    (60)

    (40)

    (20)

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    Segmental PBT (Rs bn)

    Treasury Wholesale Retail Others

    15%

    6%

    17%13%

    49%

    15%

    6%

    19%

    12%

    48%

    15%9%

    20%

    12%

    44%

    31%

    15%

    8%4%

    43%

    35%

    20%

    7%2%

    36%

    28%

    13%

    4%0%

    55%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    < 6mth

    < 1Yr

    < 3Yrs

    < 5Yrs

    5 Yrs+

    < 6mth

    < 1Yr

    < 3Yrs

    < 5Yrs

    5 Yrs+

    < 6mth

    < 1Yr

    < 3Yrs

    < 5Yrs

    5 Yrs+

    FY18 FY19 FY20

    Advances Deposits

    2.0

    0.8

    0.2

    0.8

    0.3

    76.4

    80.6

    74.9

    69.0 67.0

    50

    55

    60

    65

    70

    75

    80

    85

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20RoRWA % RWA as % of Total Assets

  • July 10, 2020 6

    Led by improving rating mix SME rating mix also improved in FY20

    Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART

    After a gradual decline, CL as % of assets has increased led by higher

    derivatives exposure

    Source: Company, DART

    The bank has a more aggressive write-off

    policy compared to peers… …but recoveries from written off accounts

    has also been higher in last two fiscals

    Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART

    12 15 12 17

    2532 39

    40

    3031 31

    2722

    16 14 1310 6 4 3

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20AAA AA A BBB BB+ & below

    %

    84% 86% 88% 82% 85%

    16% 14% 12% 18% 15%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    SME-3 or better Below SME-3

    0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

    4.8 5.2 6.3 6.1

    8.0

    0.7 0.8

    0.8 0.8

    0.7

    0.4 0.4

    0.3 0.3

    0.2 114%

    111%112%

    94%

    101%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    110%

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    Acceptances Derivatives

    Guarantees Other Contingent liabilities

    Contingent Liabilities as % of Assets

    (Rs tn)

    37

    28 23

    55

    22 22 27 26 26

    34

    24 30

    0

    20

    40

    60

    Axis ICICI SBI

    Write-off as % of Op Bal of GNPA

    FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    6.2

    3.0

    9.0

    5.4

    1.7

    7.2

    14.2

    8.88.08.1

    6.8

    0

    5

    10

    15

    Axis ICICI SBI

    Recoveries as % of opening TWO book

    FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

  • July 10, 2020 7

    Incremental NPAs mainly came from the SME (trade) and FI sector

    (In %) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    Agriculture and allied 3.2 3.9 5.5 4.9

    Industries 9.6 15.2 11.3 9.1

    Chemical & Chemical Products - 5.2 6.5 6.1

    Metals & Metals Products 16.3 17.1 4.9 4.3

    Infrastructure 7.9 29.2 24.2 13.9

    Services 5.0 3.8 4.1 4.9

    Professional Services 19.0

    Financials ex-NBFCs 0.7 0.2 0.7 1.1

    NBFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1

    CRE 4.0 9.3 10.5 9.8

    Trade 3.2 4.0 4.0 6.1

    Retail 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.7

    Consumer durables 0.7 1.1 - -

    Housing Loan 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.7

    Vehicle Loan - 1.9 0.9 1.2

    Source: Company, DART

    Average CASA has had a steady growth Though growth in year-end CASA was weak

    Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART

    Bank’s CASA to interest bearing liabilities lower than large private peers

    Source: Company, DART

    442 529 606 667 772

    872 1,127 1,263 1,430 1,593

    16.9

    26.1

    12.8 12.2 12.8

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    CA (QAB) SA (QAB) CASA (QAB) Growth %

    (Rs bn)

    637 870 956 893

    901

    1,058 1,260 1,482 1,541

    1,736

    17.3

    25.7

    14.5

    -0.2

    8.3

    (5)

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    CA SA CASA Growth %

    (Rs bn)

    34%38% 38%

    31%

    49%

    41%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    Axis Bank HDFC Bank ICICI Bank Indusind Bank KotakMahindra Bank

    State Bank ofIndia

    FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

  • July 10, 2020 8

    Concentration of deposits and advances

    has come down Exposure to stressed sectors has also come

    down

    Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART *NBFC exposures as per Basel-III

    Expanding branch network; the bank opened >450 branches in FY20

    Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART

    NPAs mainly increased in the services segment- Trade and FIs

    Source: Company, DART

    11.6% 11.4% 11.8%

    9.2%

    11.1%10.3%

    8.6% 8.7%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20Top 20 Depositors Top 20 Borrowers

    6.8% 6.7%4.8% 4.6%

    3.3% 2.8%

    2.2% 1.8%

    2.3%2.2%

    3.1%2.2%

    12.4%11.7%

    10.1%

    8.5%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    CRE Capital Markets NBFC Total

    3.7 4.1 4.5

    13.8 11.8 12.0

    0.6 0.6

    0.7

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    FY18 FY19 FY20

    Branches ('000) ATMs ('000) Employees (mn)

    16% 16% 16%

    29% 30% 30%

    24% 23% 23%

    31% 30% 31%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

    Rural Semi Urban Urban Metro

    4.9 4.4 4.1

    0.8

    11.0 9.9

    5.1

    0.7

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    Agri Industries Services Retail Agri Industries Services Retail

    Priority Sector Non-Priority Sector

    FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    %

  • July 10, 2020 9

    Year-end CASA share on a gradual decline

    Source: Company, DART

    Loan growth was driven by retail loans – auto, personal loans, and credit cards contributed the highest to retail loan growth in FY20

    Source: Company, DART

    The bank has been gaining market share over the years

    Source: Company, DART

    18 21 21 16 14

    30 31 33 28 27

    52 48 46

    55 59 11

    16

    10

    21

    16

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    CA % SA % TD % Deposits Growth %

    42% 40% 37% 36%

    13% 13% 13% 11%

    20% 19% 19%19%

    7% 7% 7%6%

    5% 5% 5%7%

    4% 4% 4% 5%

    2% 2% 2%3%

    1% 1% 1% 2%

    7% 9% 10% 12%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    Corporate SME Housing Rural Auto LAP CC SBB Others

    4.3%4.6%

    5.0% 5.1%5.5%

    3.5% 3.7%3.8%

    4.3%4.7%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

    Advances Share Despoits Share

  • July 10, 2020 10

    Well capitalised

    Source: Company, DART

    13.2

    11.8 11.7 11.3

    13.1

    0.1

    0.7 1.4 1.2

    1.1

    2.8

    3.1

    3.5 3.3

    3.0

    16.1 15.5

    16.6

    15.8

    17.2

    10

    11

    12

    13

    14

    15

    16

    17

    18

    FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 CET 1 Ratio AT 1 Ratio Tier 2 Ratio Total CRAR Ratio

    %

  • July 10, 2020 11

    Profit and Loss Account (Rs Mn)

    Particulars FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E

    Interest Income 549,858 626,352 684,386 775,105

    Interest expenses 332,775 374,290 404,568 449,274

    Net interest income 217,083 252,062 279,818 325,831

    Other incomes 131,300 155,366 147,779 161,047

    Total expenses 158,334 173,046 192,882 215,083

    - Employee cost 47,473 53,210 57,467 62,064

    - Other 110,861 119,836 135,415 153,019

    Pre provisioning profit 190,049 234,382 234,716 271,795

    Provisions 120,310 185,339 169,309 114,956

    Profit before taxes 69,739 49,043 65,406 156,838

    Tax provision 22,975 32,770 16,463 39,476

    Profit after tax 46,764 16,273 48,944 117,362

    Adjusted profit 46,764 16,273 48,944 117,362

    Balance Sheet (Rs Mn)

    Particulars FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E

    Sources of Funds

    Equity Capital 5,143 5,643 5,643 5,643

    Reserves & Surplus 661,620 843,835 892,779 993,013

    Minority Interest 0 0 0 0

    Net worth 666,763 849,478 898,422 998,657

    Borrowings 1,527,758 1,479,541 1,530,466 1,658,192

    - Deposits 5,484,713 6,401,049 6,972,123 8,095,880

    - Other interest bearing liabilities 0 0 0 0

    Current liabilities & provisions 330,731 421,579 519,756 597,216

    Total Liabilities 8,009,965 9,151,648 9,920,766 11,349,945

    Application of Funds

    Cash and balances with RBI 672,046 972,683 696,883 753,521

    Investments 1,749,693 1,567,343 1,798,669 1,995,064

    Advances 4,947,980 5,714,242 6,399,951 7,423,943

    Fixed assets 40,366 43,129 42,874 47,670

    Other current assets, loans and advances 599,880 854,252 982,389 1,129,748

    Total Assets 8,009,965 9,151,648 9,920,766 11,349,945

    E – Estimates

  • July 10, 2020 12

    Important Ratios

    Particulars FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E

    (A) Margins (%)

    Yield on advances 8.8 9.1 8.9 9.0

    Yields on interest earning assets 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.1

    Yield on investments 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5

    Costs of funds 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9

    Cost of deposits 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.7

    NIMs 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4

    (B) Asset quality and capital ratios (%)

    GNPA 5.3 4.9 6.4 5.6

    NNPA 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.8

    PCR 62.1 69.0 69.0 70.0

    Slippages 3.2 4.0 5.6 3.0

    NNPA to NW 16.9 11.0 15.0 13.4

    CASA 44.5 41.5 40.0 40.0

    CAR 15.8 17.3 16.5 16.1

    Tier 1 12.5 14.3 13.5 13.2

    Credit - Deposit 90.2 89.3 91.8 91.7

    (C) Dupont as a percentage of average assets

    Interest income 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.3

    Interest expenses 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2

    Net interest income 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1

    Non interest Income 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5

    Total expenses 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0

    - cost to income 45.4 42.5 45.1 44.2

    Provisions 1.6 2.2 1.8 1.1

    Tax 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4

    RoA 0.6 0.2 0.5 1.1

    Leverage 12.0 10.8 11.0 11.4

    RoE 7.2 2.1 5.6 12.4

    RoRwa 0.8 0.3 0.7 1.5

    (D) Measures of Investments

    EPS - adjusted 18.2 5.8 17.3 41.6

    BV 259.3 301.1 318.4 353.9

    ABV 214.9 267.4 270.6 306.5

    DPS 1.0 0.0 5.0 5.0

    Dividend payout ratio 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    (E) Growth Ratios (%)

    Net interest income 16.6 16.1 11.0 16.4

    PPoP 21.9 23.3 0.1 15.8

    Adj PAT 266.6 (65.2) 200.8 139.8

    Advances 12.5 15.5 12.0 16.0

    Total borrowings 3.2 (3.2) 3.4 8.3

    Total assets 15.9 14.3 8.4 14.4

    (F) Valuation Ratios

    Market Cap (Rs. mn) 1,240,410 1,240,410 1,240,410 1,240,410

    CMP (Rs.) 440 440 440 440

    P/E (x) 24.2 76.2 25.3 10.6

    P/BV (x) 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2

    P/ABV (x) 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.4

    Div Yield (%) 0.2 0.0 1.1 1.1

    E – Estimates

  • DART RATING MATRIX

    Total Return Expectation (12 Months)

    Buy > 20%

    Accumulate 10 to 20%

    Reduce 0 to 10%

    Sell < 0%

    Rating and Target Price History

    Month Rating TP (Rs.) Price (Rs.)

    Jan-19 Accumulate 760 661

    Apr-19 Accumulate 840 741

    Jun-19 Accumulate 900 808

    Jun-19 Accumulate 900 763

    Jul-19 Accumulate 800 674

    Oct-19 Accumulate 800 713

    Jan-20 Accumulate 800 713

    Mar-20 Accumulate 511 303

    Apr-20 Buy 510 455

    *Price as on recommendation date

    DART Team

    Purvag Shah Managing Director [email protected] +9122 4096 9747

    Amit Khurana, CFA Head of Equities [email protected] +9122 4096 9745

    CONTACT DETAILS

    Equity Sales Designation E-mail Direct Lines

    Dinesh Bajaj VP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9709

    Kapil Yadav VP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9735

    Yomika Agarwal VP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9772

    Jubbin Shah VP - Derivatives Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9779

    Ashwani Kandoi AVP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9725

    Lekha Nahar AVP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9740

    Equity Trading Designation E-mail

    P. Sridhar SVP and Head of Sales Trading [email protected] +9122 4096 9728

    Chandrakant Ware VP - Sales Trading [email protected] +9122 4096 9707

    Shirish Thakkar VP - Head Domestic Derivatives Sales Trading [email protected] +9122 4096 9702

    Kartik Mehta Asia Head Derivatives [email protected] +9122 4096 9715

    Dinesh Mehta Co- Head Asia Derivatives [email protected] +9122 4096 9765

    Bhavin Mehta VP - Derivatives Strategist [email protected] +9122 4096 9705

    280

    410

    540

    670

    800

    930

    Jan-1

    9

    Fe

    b-1

    9

    Mar-

    19

    Apr-

    19

    May-1

    9

    Jun-1

    9

    Jul-19

    Aug-1

    9

    Sep-1

    9

    Oct-

    19

    Nov-1

    9

    Dec-1

    9

    Jan-2

    0

    Fe

    b-2

    0

    Mar-

    20

    Apr-

    20

    May-2

    0

    Jun-2

    0

    Jul-20

    (Rs) AXSB Target Price

    Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. Sunshine Tower, 28th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (West), Mumbai 400013

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

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    Dolat Capital Market Private Limited.

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