strike group oceanography team unclassified metoc preparation of the battle space, operational...
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Strike Group Oceanography Team 1UNCLASSIFIED
METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
THIS BRIEF IS UNCLASSIFIED
CDR Ashley Evans, USNCommanding Officer, SGOT-SD
Strike Group Oceanography Team 3UNCLASSIFIED
METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
Global Fleet OperationsGlobal Fleet Operations
Strike Group Oceanography Team 4UNCLASSIFIED
METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
PANAMAX 2008PANAMAX 2008
Strike Group Oceanography Team 5UNCLASSIFIED
METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
Joint Logistics Over The ShoreJoint Logistics Over The ShoreJLOTS 2008JLOTS 2008
Strike Group Oceanography Team 7UNCLASSIFIED
METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
EASTPAC StormsEASTPAC Storms
Strike Group Oceanography Team 8UNCLASSIFIED
METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
Battlespace On DemandBattlespace On DemandLinking Forecasts to DecisionsLinking Forecasts to Decisions
Decision superiority: Making better decisions faster than the adversary
Strike Group Oceanography Team 9UNCLASSIFIED
METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
CNMOC 2009 Goal #3CNMOC 2009 Goal #3
Prepare for TomorrowPrepare for Tomorrow• Focus “Battlespace on Demand” Decision
Support− Intuitive, accessible GI&S-based products embedded in
Navy/Joint C4I− Navy / National Weather & Ocean Modeling Strategy− Develop selected ‘Decision Layer’ (Tier III) products− Speed to Capability
• Play a critical role in:− UUV’s − Undersea Warfare Advances− Climate Change / Arctic Ops− Energy Alternatives and Efficiency
• Expand Joint Wx operations with USAF and NOAA
Strike Group Oceanography Team 10
UNCLASSIFIEDMETOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
Gaps in SupportGaps in Support
Strategic Operational Tactical
Lev
el o
f E
ffo
rt
Years Months Weeks Days Hours
COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey
Program
OPLAN/CONPLAN
Studies
TASTOS
Mission execution briefs
OpportunityTrade Space
Lev
el o
f Im
pac
t
Operational Planning
Team Engagement
OPLAN/CONPLAN
Development
EnvironmentalReconnaissanceEnvironmental
Reconstruction and Analysis
MissionPlanning Cell Engagement
Strike Group Oceanography Team 11
UNCLASSIFIEDMETOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
When - WESTPAC 2004 Typhoon When - WESTPAC 2004 Typhoon TracksTracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TROPICAL STORM TYPHOON
DATA FROM 30 JUL-15 OCT 2004 STORMS 12W TO 28W
PROVIDED BY JTWC NPMOC PEARL HARBOR
CONSIDERED AN AVERAGE TYHPOON SEASON
Strike Group Oceanography Team 12
UNCLASSIFIEDMETOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
JCSSG Western Pacific Deployment 2004JCSSG Western Pacific Deployment 2004METOC ImpactsMETOC Impacts
Guam Area(11-16 Oct)
TY27W – TokageTY28W – Nock-Ten
2 days flight ops cancelled1 day flight ops shortened
4 days of Seas > 8ft1 days with ceilings < 300’
Gulf of Alaska(2-16 Jun)
2 Major Storm Systems3 days flight ops cancelled1 day flight ops shortened
4 days of Seas > 8ft2 days with ceilings < 300’
6 STW missions to PARC no drop due to WX (clouds)20 days with SST < 50°
South China Sea(28Aug - 17 Sep)
TS23W1 day flight ops shortened
3 days Seas > 8ft1 day with ceilings < 300’
Malacca Strait waterspout
Eastern Australia Ocean (20Sep – 8 Oct)
1 day flight ops cancelled1 day flight ops shortened
6 days of Seas > 8ft2 STW missions to Lancelin range
no drop due to WX (clouds)
Okinawa Area(7-16 Aug)
TY15W MalouTY16W Rananim
TY18W Megi8 days Seas > 8 ft
2 days flight ops cancelled1 day flight ops shortened
Sasebo - Tokyo Port Call(20-25 Aug)
STY19W – ChabaTY20W - Aere
East China Sea(18-27 Aug)
TS21WTY22W Songda5 days Seas > 8ft
Hawaii OPAREA(29 Jun - 26 Jul)
5 STW missions to PTA no drop due to WX (clouds)
September
November
MayJuneJuly
August
October
MODLOCTRANSITPVST
Strike Group Oceanography Team 13
UNCLASSIFIEDMETOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
Adapted from the movie “Patton” (1970)
Environmental Decision Superiority for Environmental Decision Superiority for the 21the 21stst Century Patton and Halsey Century Patton and Halsey
Strike Group Oceanography Team 14
UNCLASSIFIEDMETOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Advanced Climatology course project.
Smart climo analyzes and monitors the evolution of the climate system, and updates climate statistics accordingly.
SST (oC), East China Sea, Jul-Sep, 1969-2006. Note pronounced interannual variations and long term positive trend.
Smart Climatology
Traditional Climatology
year
T (oC)
Smart Climatology – Analysis MethodsSmart Climatology – Analysis MethodsLong Term Fluctuations and Trends – SST, East China Sea, Jul-Sep
Strike Group Oceanography Team 15
UNCLASSIFIEDMETOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
40 E 60
E 80
E 100
E 120
E
10 S
0
10 N
20 N
30 N
EDH
0 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 18
Evaporation duct height (m) for September from: (a) NPS smart EDH climatology and (b) existing Navy climatology. NPS smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses.
a b
Smart Climatology Existing Navy Climatology
Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and visualization tools to produce more detailed, accurate, and
operationally useful products.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.
Smart Climatology – Data SetsSmart Climatology – Data SetsEvaporation Duct HeightsEvaporation Duct Heights
Strike Group Oceanography Team 16
UNCLASSIFIEDMETOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and visualization tools to produce more detailed, accurate, and operationally useful
products. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program:
NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.
Smart Climatology
40 E 60
E 80
E 100
E 120
E
10 S
0
10 N
20 N
30 N
EDH
0 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 18
40 E 60
E 80
E 100
E 120
E
10 S
0
10 N
20 N
30 N
EDH AREPS Marsden Sq Climatology for Sep
0 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Evaporation duct height (m) for September from: (a) NPS smart EDH climatology and (b) existing Navy climatology after plotting in map form by NPS. NPS smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal
atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses.
a b
Traditional Climatology
Smart Climatology – Data SetsSmart Climatology – Data SetsEvaporation Duct HeightsEvaporation Duct Heights
Strike Group Oceanography Team 17
UNCLASSIFIEDMETOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
17
Apply smart climo methods to develop systems for producing weekly to seasonal predictions of the upper ocean and the atmosphere that drives it.
Analyses of climate scale relationships between large scale environmentand TCs leads to predictions of TC activity at leads of weeks to months.
TC Formation Probability for 2006 Week 40
120 E 150
E 180
E 150
W
15 S
0
15 N
30 N
45 N
Verifying observations of TC
formation sites during 01-07 Oct 2006
25%
10%
40%
55%
70%
Results shown are from NPS hindcast.
Experimental forecastsin development at NPS.
TC FormationProbabilities
for 01-07 Oct 2006
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR D. Meyer.
ASW Smart Climo, [email protected], Jan08
Smart Climatology – Long Lead PredictionSmart Climatology – Long Lead PredictionTropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction, Western North Pacific
Method very applicable to probabilistic forecasts of TC intensity and track.
Strike Group Oceanography Team 18
UNCLASSIFIEDMETOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
Probabilistic Forecast Techniques Probabilistic Forecast Techniques and Ensemble Modelingand Ensemble Modeling
Strike Group Oceanography Team 19
UNCLASSIFIEDMETOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
Image Valid: 17/06Z
Location Current HURCON Closest Point Of Approach
Kadena N/A 486NM (18/18Z)
Kadena
Wed 17/00Z60G75Kt
Typhoon Dolphin Typhoon > 64 Kts
Tropical Storm 34 – 63 Kts
Tropical Depression < 34 Kts
Remnant Low < 25 Kts
6
6
o6
6
L
Typhoon CategoriesTyphoon: 64 – 129 Kts
Super Typhoon: >130 Kts
Rain Total*4 – 8 inches Storm Surge*
N/AWave Heights*
20 – 24 feet
*Near Center of Storm
Thu 18/06Z40G50Kt
Thu 18/06Z40G50Kt
Wed 17/18Z55G70Kt
Fri 19/06Z20G30Kt
Strike Group Oceanography Team 20
UNCLASSIFIEDMETOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
Key Fleet Capabilities for Key Fleet Capabilities for 21st Century Support 21st Century Support
• Data, Data, Data– Globally connected with links to other services,
multinational, federal, and state agencies
• Smart Climatology and hybrid LRF– Without a robust data feed - marginal results
• Global Model (NOGAPS/GFS) Ensemble Feed as Initial Conditions for Tropical Cyclone Models and meso-scale models
– Develop first order sensitivity guidance for military forecaster use with Ensembles
• Google Presentation Feed for the Millennium Generation
– Standardized– Built to the sailor’s cognitive environment
Strike Group Oceanography Team 21
UNCLASSIFIEDMETOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage
QuestionsQuestions