studley report for south florida 3q2012

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  • 1. 3Q 2012SOUTH Report Report FLORIDA S T U D L E Y O F F I C E M A R K E T A N D S PA C E D ATA R E P O R TMARKET HIGHLIGHTS The Mood is Cautious AVAILABILITY RATES INCH DOWN South Floridas overall availability rate, As South Floridas economy and office market attempt to regain equilibrium, the unstable U.S. 22.0%,dipped by 0.7 pp for the quarter.economy and the November election are giving businesses cause for concern. The U.S. economy The Class A rate, 23.9%, dropped by 0.9faltered in the second and third quarters. GDP growth has fallen from an average of 3.0% in 2011 pp.to a sub-2.0% range in 2012 as the impact of the federal stimulus wanes. Corporations havereverted to more tentative and risk-averse hiring and spending patterns. Businesses dont needany more reasons to second-guess themselves, but the upcoming election and the so-called fiscal RENTS HOLD STEADYcliff that will follow are adding to companies nervousness. Leasing in South Florida stumbledduring the third quarter, dipping by 13.2% from 1.6 msf to 1.4 msf. Class A activity dropped by Overall rent ($27.12) was unchanged20.1% to 636,287 sf. Class A volume in Miami-Dade has been lackluster for a while now, totaling quarter-on-quarter. Class A rent ($31.18)only 1.6 msf over the last four quarters, the weakest it has been since early 2010. declined by 0.1%.Despite the slow hiring and leasing activity, South Florida has recorded solid declines in availability QUARTERLY LEASING SLOWSduring the last two quarters. The overall availability rate fell by 0.7 pp to 22.0% and the Class Arate declined by 0.9 pp to 23.9%. Broward County registered the regions steepest decrease in Overall leasing totaled 1.4 msf, a decreaseClass A availability rate, which dipped by 1.8 pp to 22.8%. In Miami-Dade County, the Class A rate of 17.8% from the previous quarter. Trailing slipped by 1.0 pp to 22.9% due to a decrease of 1.7 pp to 18.7% in Northeast Dade and a 1.3 pp four-quarter volume reached 5.8 msf, downdrop to 21.4% in Coral Gables. In contrast, the Class A rate rose for the second straight quarter in by 6.8%. Palm Beach County, by 0.6 pp to 27.1%Many believe that the state of the economy and the upcoming election are not influencing tenants FEWER LARGE BLOCKS to delay their decisions on space use it may simply be that most tenants have little cause forurgency. Ample supply remains for smaller and mid-sized space-users, and only a sliver of the In Miami-Dade County, the number ofmarket can be described as tightening. Although Class A availability has started to decline, the large contiguous blocks of space (50,000 region still has 12.1 msf of Class A space on the market, 136.0% more than in late 2006, when sf or more) fell from 23 last quarter to 21. the market was last at its tightest. Compared to late 2006, South Florida has about 68,000 fewer In Broward County, the number of blocksoffice-using workers, and companies signing leases are being wise to allocate less space per remained stable at 14. The number of employee. blocks in Palm Beach County stands at 8, versus 10 last quarter.Most landlords are consequently not in a position to increase rents. Overall asking rents have beenstagnant since the first quarter of 2011, ranging from $27.32 psf at that time to $27.12 psf in thethird quarter the second quarter in a row that rents have maintained this average. Class A rentsticked down from $31.20 psf to $31.18 psf in the third quarter. They have fallen even in submarkets Miami-Dade Transaction BarometerMIAMI-DADE TRANSACTION BAROMETERBroward Transaction Barometer BROWARD TRANSACTION BAROMETER PALM BEACH TRANSACTION BAROMETERPalm Beach Transaction Barometer One Qtr One Qtr One Qtr One Qtr One Qtr One Qtr CBD Change Suburban ChangeCBD Change Suburban ChangeCBD Change Suburban ChangeAverage Term: 10 yrs 7 yrs Average Term: 7 yrs 5 yrs Average Term: 7 yrs 5 yrsConcessions: Concessions:Concessions:Free Rent6-12 months 6 monthsFree Rent 8 months5 monthsFree Rent 12 months 7 monthsTenant Improvements$50.00/sf $35.00/sf Tenant Improvements $40.00/sf $25.00/sf Tenant Improvements $40.00/sf $30.00/sfParking1.5 spaces/1,000 sf 3.5 spaces/1,000 sf Parking 2 spaces/1,000 sf 4 spaces/1,000 sf Parking 2 spaces/1,000 sf 4 spaces/1,000 sfOutlook: Supply continues to exceed demand in most Outlook: Landlords remain aggressive in competing for quality Outlook: Leasing activity remains steady throughout this submarkets.tenants.submarket.UpDownUnchanged

2. ($/sf) Rental Rate Trends with the greatest amount of new product. Class A rents in Downtown Miami declined by$40 3.1% to $35.83 psf in the third quarter and have decreased by 6.1% year-on-year. Class$35 $31.11 $31.18A rents in Brickell dropped for the year by a more modest 0.3%.$30$25 Even the highest-caliber buildings in Brickell, Coral Gables, Downtown Fort Lauderdale$20 $24.99 $23.50 and West Palm Beach have had to scramble to compete for tenants. Some properties$15built two or three years ago are still trying to lease first-generation space. Some of the$10protracted leasing campaigns appear to finally be paying off, providing evidence that$5tenants will respond positively to competitively priced quality product. Bank of AmericaClass A Class B & C Plaza at Las Olas City Centre, for example, has completed more than 110,000 sf of$0 2007 3Q 2008 3Q 2009 3Q 2010 3Q 2011 3Q 2012 3Qleases and is now more than 99% occupied. On the other hand, 600 Brickell and WellsFargo Center each have nearly 500,000 sf available for lease. In Coral Gables, 396Four-Quarter Trailing Leasing Activity* Alhambra has more than 80,000 sf available.(msf)4.5 Class A Class B & C4.0 Tenants looking for large blocks of quality space are facing some challenges, though.3.52.9South Florida does not have very many tenants looking for this type of space, but the3.0 supply of large blocks still has dropped off enough to make it difficult for larger companies2.5 2.92.1 currently in the market. Some of these tenants with imminent lease expirations have2.02.1 invested a great deal in their current infrastructure, so they are unwilling to move unless1.5they can find the right fit and negotiate generous tenant improvement allowances. On the1.00.5flip side of this, though, most landlords remain very eager to retain their current roster or0.0 *Sum of leasing activity in prior four quartersattract larger creditworthy tenants. 2007 3Q 2008 3Q 2009 3Q 2010 3Q 2011 3Q 2012 3QOn an annual comparison, the number of blocks of space of more than 50,000 sf in (%)Availability Rate TrendsMiami-Dade County has declined from 24 to 21. Eleven of these blocks are in Class30% A buildings. Broward County (six) and Palm Beach County (three) have even smaller25%23.9% supplies of large blocks of Class A space. The next two years should be pivotal, as thereare 13 leases in Miami-Dade County in the 30,000-sf-plus range, with a combined total of20% 15.4%20.5% over 800,000 sf, due to expire.15%10%Colleges and continuing education institutions, as well as healthcare companies, have 10.6%played a big role in filling in some of the void in demand caused by reduced activity and5%heightened efficiency on the part of banks, law firms and other professional/businessservices. Prior to the recession, some of these companies were pushed to the side by Class AClass B & C0% 2007 3Q 2008 3Q 2009 3Q 2010 3Q 2011 3Q 2012 3Qprofessional/business services, but now they are front and center in leasing activity.Healthsun Health Plans, for example, inked a 19,000-sf lease at 3250 Mary Street inOverall Large Block Trends*Coconut Grove. In West Miami, San Ignacio College completed a 14,000-sf lease at303805 N.W. 107th Avenue. In the largest deal of the quarter, OneBlood, a blood donation25center, acquired 3000 W. Cypress Creek Road, a 75,000-sf building, for $9.8 million. The202021ability of tenants to acquire their own properties at prices well below replacement costfurther undercuts the leasing market.15 161410Some core office-space users such as law firms and banks have been somewhat more 98 active of late, but not enough to make much of a dent in the regions excess supply.5*Contiguous spaces >=50,000 sf Miami-Dade Broward Palm BeachHogan Lovells committed to a 12-year, 47,508-sf lease at 600 Brickell. The law firm was0 attracted to the propertys stellar amenities and location, as well as to its on-site data 2010 3Q 2011 1Q 2011 3Q2012 1Q2012 3Qcenter. Brickell Bay Office Tower snared several tenants in the first quarter pushing itsleased rate to just above 97.0%. As in prior quarters, many of the tenants are new to theMAJOR TRANSACTIONS Major TransactionsTenantSq Feet AddressMarket AreaOneBlood, Inc.75,0003000 W Cypress Creek RoadCypress Creek/Fort LauderdaleHogan Lovells 47,508600 Brickell AvenueBrickellRight Space Management24,5751951 NW 7th Avenue NE DadeHealthsun Health Plans, Inc.19,0003250 Mary Street Coral Gables/GroveThales17,170900 S Pine Island Road Sunrise/PlantationNBC Television17,1202555 Ponce De Leon Boulevard Coral Gables/GrovePipeline14,0001101 Brickell Avenue BrickellInfinity12,9283750 NW 87th AvenueWest Miami/AirportVector Group, Ltd.12,3904400 Biscayne BoulevardNE DadeLandmark Education12,2656451 N Federal Highway Cypress Creek/Fort LauderdaleConsulate General of France9,6541395 Brickell Avenue BrickellEmerson Climate Technologies 9,2581300 Concord Terrace Sunrise/PlantationBarakat Law, Inc.8,745255 Alhambra CircleCoral Gables/GroveHinshaw Law Firm 8,0312525 Ponce De Leon Boulevard Coral Gables/GroveCherry Bekaert & Holland 7,917200 E Broward BoulevardDowntown Fort LauderdaleSum of Top 15 Leases295,561 Sum of 3rd Quarter Leasing Activity 1.4 MSF 3. area. Houston-based health care firm Domus Prime Services; MP & Silva, a European Overall Rental Rate Comparisonsports broadcasting company; and law firm Alvarez, Arrieta & Diaz-Silveira completed Brickell $38.45new leases in this building. Landlords have pulled back slightly on concessions, free rentDowntown Miami $32.47periods have been dialed back a bit and some landlords with higher occupancy are not Coral Gables/Grove$32.39 Miami-Dade County$29.83as willing to restructure leases as they were a few quarters ago, although most are stillUS Index $29.55being accommodating. NE Dade $28.69SW Broward$28.27South Dade $27.35Capital markets have started to improve in many U.S. markets and in South FloridaDowntown Frt Ldrdle$27.16as well. Weaker fundamentals have kept some institutional lenders and insuranceSouth Florida $27.12companies out of the market, but regional banks are starting to dip their toes back intoPalm Beach $27.05the water. Lenders continue to stick to very high loan-to-value ratios and more rigidBoca Raton$25.85 Broward County $24.62valuation standards, but funding is more available. Owners of properties built severalSunrise/Plantation$24.56cycles ago are finding that renovations and upgrades are critical to being competitive inPalm Beach County$24.36this market. Properties that are struggling to cover debt service do not have the fundsHollywood/Hallandale $24.33West Miami/Airport $23.62for such upgrades or in some cases even to provide the generous tenant improvementCypress Cr/Ft Ldrdle$23.01allowances that tenants expect. Refinancing activity has been critical to giving some ofN Palm Beach$22.81these owners the key funds for renovations and concessions. More importantly, it has Miami Lakes/Hialeah $22.49Marketkept some owners from having to hold a fire sale in a market that exacts a stiff penaltyNorth Broward$22.23 Submarket Boynton/Delray $21.14for low occupancy rates.TypeNew$34.85Negligible lending for construction and development activity has helped restrainRelet $25.74 Sublet$24.59overbuilding, and most developers remain cautious. Swire Properties broke ground in$0 $10$20$30$40late June on Brickell CitiCentre, one of South Floridas biggest projects in quite some($/sf)time. The 5.4-msf, $1.0-billion project will include two office buildings, 520,000 sf ofretail shops, 800 condominium units and a hotel. The first office building, a 220,000-sfAvailability Rate Comparisonproperty, is slated for completion in 2015. Other owners are poised to start constructionHollywood/Hallandale 14.7%Marketonce they sign an anchor tenant or see clearer signs that a more widespread recoverySouth Dade15.5%Submarkethas begun. The Hogan Group, for example, has plans in place for the next building at NE Dade 16.3%Waterford at Blue Lagoon in the West Miami/Airport submarket.Miami Lakes/Hialeah 16.9% SW Broward17.0%Coral Gables/Grove17.1%Looking ForwardUS Index 17.4%Most economists project that weaker GDP growth and hiring will carry through much ofMiami-Dade County 19.9%2013. The fall elections, and another likely confrontation in Washington regarding taxes West Miami/Airport20.0%and spending after the elections, will provide added cause for business and consumerN Palm Beach 20.5%caution. Even if the fiscal cliff is averted and other crises such as turbulence in theBrickell20.6%Eurozone or violence in the Middle East are contained, most economists call for growthSunrise/Plantation21.4%in the 2.0% to 2.5% range. Conditions in South Floridas office market are not likely Broward County21.6%to change much in the next several quarters. Tenants willing to sign long-term lease South Florida22.0%commitments should still be able to command quite favorable terms. Downtown Frt Ldrdle 22.5%North Broward22.6%Palm Beach 22.7% ABOUT OUR FIRMCypress Cr/Ft Ldrdle25.2%Palm Beach County26.8% is the only global tenant advisory firm with a pure tenant representative delivery platform.Boca Raton 28.8% Founded in 1954, Studley pioneered this conflict-free business model. Today, with 22 offices nationwide Downtown Miami29.7% and an international presence through its London office and AOS Studley throughout Europe, Studley pro- Boynton/Delray 45.7% vides strategic real estate consulting services to top-tier corporations, law firms, nonprofits, government agencies and institutions of higher education. Information about Studley is available at www.studley.com.(%) 0%10%20% 30%40% 50% OFFICE-USING EMPLOYMENT TRENDS MillionsSouth Florida Millions National 0.710.0%30Total Empl. 4.0%Total Empl.% Ann. Change % Ann. Change8.0% 292.0% 0.66.0%4.0% 28 0.0% 0.52.0%2009 270.0% -2.0% 2009 0.4-2.0%26 -4.0%-4.0%25 0.3-6.0% 24-6.0%-8.0% 20022003 20042005 20062007 2008 2010 20122002 20032004 200520062007 20082010 201220112011 0.2-10.0% 23-8.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics STUDLEY OFFICE MARKET AND SPACEDATA REPORT 4. MARKET SNAPSHOT: 3Q 2012 SUBMARKET TOTAL LEASING ACTIVITYVACANT AVAILABLEAVAILABILITY RATE ASKING RENTS PER SF InventoryLast 5 % 5 pp5%5 SF12 YrThisChangeYrYrsThisChange YrYrs This ChangeYr Yrs(1,000s) Mos Average QtrfromAgoAgoQtrfrom LastAgoAgo Qtr fromAgo Ago(1)Last Qtr Qtr Last Qtr Miami Lakes/Hialeah 3,539 83 94 5982.5%516266 16.9%0.4% 14.6% 8.6%$22.490.1%$23.68 $23.01 Miami Lakes/Hialeah - Class A88515 30 2660.0%2596330.1%0.0% 29.3%13.0%$24.16-0.5% $25.60 $24.39 West Miami/Airport12,035 901 757 2,412-4.7% 2,2731,19420.0%-1.0%20.7%11.4%$23.62-0.3% $23.60 $23.49 West Miami/Airport - Class A5,355637 482890 -9.4%933438 16.6%-1.7%18.1% 9.5%$25.76-0.1% $26.03 $23.92 Downtown Miami7,988342 303 2,373-1.1% 2,171 803 29.7%-0.3%31.0%12.7%$32.47-0.9% $33.11 $30.65 Downtown Miami - Class A5,027169 226 1,405-1.5% 1,445 401 27.9%-0.4%28.7%10.4%$35.83-3.1% $38.18 $35.36 Brickell6,967649 456 1,438-5.0% 1,757 743 20.6%-1.1%25.2%12.9%$38.451.0%$37.33 $36.43 Brickell - Class A4,100415 300 1,106-2.9% 1,197 268 27.0%-0.8%29.2% 8.1%$41.30-0.4% $41.43 $40.04 Coral Gables/Grove8,557582 428 1,462-4.1% 1,524 532 17.1%-0.7%18.1% 6.9%$32.390.3%$30.67 $34.07 Coral Gables/Grove - Class A4,180310 254896 -5.9%838321 21.4%-1.3%20.1% 8.6%$35.520.8%$34.20 $36.97 North Broward 4,255112 1639621.4%938468 22.6%0.3% 22.3%11.0%$22.230.2%$22.63 $22.73 North Broward - Class A928254 343 -6.8%379110 37.0%-2.7%40.8%12.0%$24.63-0.3% $25.79 $24.67 Cypress Creek/Fort Lauderdale 8,610500 408 2,172-2.1% 1,9891,14325.2%-0.5%23.2%13.5%$23.01-0.2% $22.63 $21.26 Cypress Creek/Fort Lauderdale - 2,992158 136539 -2.6%637310 18.0%-0.5%21.3%11.2%$24.910.8%$25.63 $25.19 Class A Sunrise/Plantation7,288260 441 1,559-4.8% 1,338 884 21.4%-1.1%19.3%14.3%$24.56-2.2% $24.62 $26.34 Sunrise/Plantation - Class A4,579178 331 1,118-7.1%959607 24.4%-1.9%21.3%16.1%$26.93-1.6% $27.50 $27.65 Downtown Fort Lauderdale6,090309 333 1,369-7.0% 1,4111,27222.5%-1.7%23.4%21.3%$27.16-1.5% $27.75 $29.72 Downtown Fort Lauderdale - 4,479243 274 1,055-8.8% 1,0891,09223.6%-2.3%24.3%23.8%$28.09-1.0% $28.43 $30.11 Class A Southwest Broward 3,715161 179630 -10.4% 537415 17.0%-2.0%15.7%11.8%$28.27-1.1% $28.03 $28.31 Southwest Broward - Class A 2,329103 139482 -11.8% 390346 20.7%-2.8%17.3%15.9%$29.32-0.7% $29.18 $29.37 North Palm Beach4,875180 1629982.9%889601 20.5%0.6% 19.0%13.7%$22.81-2.8% $22.91 $25.23 North Palm Beach - Class A1,775 96 72 4128.9%405123 23.2%1.9% 22.8% 8.4%$24.82-5.6% $25.70 $29.76 Palm Beach7,543402 351 1,709-2.5% 1,8281,36622.7%-0.6%25.1%19.3%$27.05-0.1% $27.29 $32.51 Palm Beach - Class A3,151125 1646220.9%645673 19.8%0.2% 20.9%25.8%$32.26-0.1% $32.42 $36.27 Boynton/Delray2,047 83 107934 -1.9%544379 45.7%-0.9%27.9%22.4%$21.14-0.8% $21.64 $23.41 Boynton/Delray - Class A 304726 68 1.7%35 4222.5%0.4% 11.4%19.9%$18.79-3.6% $20.34 $24.94 Boca Raton11,784 620 751 3,394-1.4% 3,0641,87528.8%-0.4%27.4%17.7%$25.85-0.1% $26.11 $27.47 Boca Raton - Class A6,706328 475 2,135 1.4% 1,9351,56931.8%0.4% 29.2%24.8%$26.950.1%$27.11 $27.42 MIAMI-DADE TOTAL52,094 2,9912,41910,365 -4.3% 10,138 4,43319.9%-0.9%20.5% 9.8%$29.830.7%$29.78 $29.50 MIAMI-DADE TOTAL - Class A23,298 1,6241,4245,343-4.3% 5,3061,90122.9%-1.0%23.3%10.0%$34.270.0%$35.05 $32.93 BROWARD COUNTY TOTAL33,290 1,5161,6747,181-3.5% 6,7524,39321.6%-0.8%20.7%14.1%$24.62-1.2% $24.68 $25.74 BROWARD COUNTY TOTAL - 15,786 713 963 3,596-7.3% 3,5152,50322.8%-1.8%22.5%17.1%$27.13-0.9% $27.46 $28.57 Class A PALM BEACH COUNTY TOTAL 26,249 1,2841,3717,035-1.1% 6,3253,91526.8%-0.3%24.9%16.5%$24.36-1.0% $25.13 $29.10 PALM BEACH COUNTY TOTAL - 11,936 556 737 3,237 2.2% 3,0202,40827.1%0.6% 25.6%22.7%$28.61-2.3% $29.55 $34.68 Class A SOUTH FLORIDA TOTAL111,633 5,7915,46424,581 -3.2% 23,215 12,740 22.0%-0.7%21.6%12.7%$27.120.0%$27.33 $27.91 SOUTH FLORIDA TOTAL - 51,020 2,8933,12312,176 -3.6% 11,840 6,81223.9%-0.9%23.6%15.4%$31.18-0.1% $31.81 $31.11 Class ASOUTH FLORIDA CONTACTS200 S. Biscayne Blvd.Suite 1830Miami, FL 33131(305) 423-1919Corporate Research ContactThe information in this report is obtained from sources deemedSteve Coutts - SVP, National Researchreliable, but no representation is made as to the accuracy [email protected] Statistics compiled with the support of The CoStar Group.Copyright 2012 Studley(212) 326-8610 (1) Percentage point change for availability rates. Unless otherwise noted, all rents quoted throughout this report are average askinggross (full service) rents psf. Statistics are calculated using both direct and subleaseinformation. STUDLEY OFFICE MARKET AND SPACEDATA REPORT