summary and transition: past, present and future climates
DESCRIPTION
Western Interior Paleontological Society. Summary And Transition: Past, Present And Future Climates. Paul E. Belanger, Ph.D. WIPS 1 ST VP. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. Bob Raynolds Jonathan Bujak Dag Nummedal Ian Miller Peggy LeMone Caspar Ammann …et al. that I did not mean to omit. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Summary And Transition: Past, Present And Future Climates
Western Interior Paleontological Society
Paul E. Belanger, Ph.D.
WIPS 1ST VP
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSBob Raynolds
Jonathan Bujak
Dag Nummedal
Ian Miller
Peggy LeMone
Caspar Ammann …et al. that I did not mean to omit
Global Warming/Climate Change – Resource Issues – Alternatives Study Group:
FTP SITE: https://sslaccess.elkresources.net/files/
• Strandlines/shorelines• Moraines• Till• Kettle lakes, etc.
SOME OF THE EARLIEST PROXY DATA
WAS FROM TERRESTRIAL DEPOSITS
We may know what caused these today, but imagine back then?
IT’S THE INTERPRETATION THAT’S NOT ALWAYS CORRECT
Darwin observed ancient Alpine shorelines:
interpreted as ocean shoreline
Agassiz – later correctly interpreted as ice-dammed lake-shore strandlines/shoreline
TERRESTRIAL DATA
North American:
Wisconsin
Illinoian
Kansan
Nebraskan
European:
Wurm
Riss
Mindel
Gunz
OF HUGE IMPORTANCE:
•DISTRIBUTION OF CONTINENTS WITH RESPECT TO LATITUDE
•OCEAN CIRCULATION
•OPENING OF THE DRAKE PASSAGE:
ISOLATING ANTARCTICA
•BARRIERS TO EQUATORIAL CIRCULATION:
CLOSING OF ISTHMUS OF PANAMA 3-5 Ma
In particular we saw a VERY DRAMATIC increase in temperature in an
environment of already HIGH CO2 VALUES when there was an additional
spike of Methane and CO2
Early Eocene supergreenhousewas followed immediately by abrupt global cooling
What forced this change?
Bujak, pers. Comm.
ACEX results
• 1400 ft (420m) cored section
• good Paleocene Eocene section recovered
• cored the “Azolla event”
• cored the PETM
Bujak, pers. Comm.
ACEX Azolla core
• >8 metre ACEX core with 90% Azolla
• Azolla occurs as laminated layers
• indicates Azolla deposited in situ
• bottom-water anoxia at ACEX site
Bujak, pers. Comm.
the fastest growing plant on the planet!
it can double its biomass in 2 to 3
days
Bujak, pers. Comm.
Not unlike the increase GHGs at Paleocene-Eocene causing a significant warming, there appears to be a strong suggestion that this Azolla sequestration of carbon GHGs for a period of about 800,000 years correlates to an ensuing cooling of the globe.
That is NOT to say tectonic events like the opening of the Drake Passage are not also of great significance – particularly in the isolation of Antarctica and its subsequent glaciation and contribution to global cooling.
No sinks: Runaway Greenhouse Effect
• 97% carbon dioxide• 3% nitrogen• Water & sulfuric acid
clouds• Temperature:
>800°F – more than twice as hot as Mercury
Venus
The Many Time Scales of Climate Change• Daily to several years: Weather – not Climate
1oUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF solar, El Ninos, volcanism, INCREASE IN GHGs, etc. •Century: the climate change the IPCC and people everywhere are worried about, because it affects the economy of society, and tracks man’s direct impact
• Centuries to millennia – Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles; Heinrich events
1oUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MILANKOVITCH CYCLES, although abrupt & rapid changes in CO2 (as occurred at the PETM) can be influential
• 20Ka to 400 Ka years – Milankovitch cycles - insolation due to earth’s orbital changes
1oUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CO2
• 1Ma to many millions (Ma) years – Pennsylvanian ‘ice house’ and Cretaceous ‘greenhouse’ due to plate tectonic cycles of continental assembly and break-up and vertical movements. Cycling of CO2 into and out of earth
The Many Time Scales of Climate Change(cont.)
Unique events: “Snowball earth” in late Proterozoic (and more?)Large volcanic eruptions (OAE-2 at C/T boundary)PETM – major heat spike release of methane clathrates
Message: Don’t confuse the causes of climate change at one time scale with the drivers of change at another.
The Long-term carbon cycle and Earths climate:
Carbon cycles:Long-term carbon cycle (millions of yrs)
• Driver of long-term climate changes along with continental and ocean-circulation changes
• Responsible for Icehouses/GreenhousesShort-term carbon cycle (~1,000s to 1,000,000 yrs)
• CO2 currently amplifies glacial-interglacial contrasts
Long-term carbon cycle and today:• Burning fossil fuels is like setting off volcanoes >100
times faster than present eruptions rates• Running a global experiment, which in not analogous
to glacial-interglacials – BUT MAY BE ANALOGOUS to the PETM.
Today’s Unique Event: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Today
CO2 for thepast 400 ky
Pliocene levelsof 385ppm
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
If sea-ice continues to contract rapidly over the next several years, Arctic land warming and permafrost thaw are likely to accelerate.David Lawrence, NCAR
Satellite imagery of sea ice extent in September1979, and at a record low in September 2007. Source: NASA
NOAA web site archives & Peter Tans
The State of Affairs
HOWEVER: THE LATEST DATA THRU 2007
SUGGESTS GREEN HOUSE GASES ARE MATCHING AND OVERTAKING
TSI VARIATIONS
NCAR: Caspar Amman, 2007
WikipediaSolar irradiance: 342 W/m2
CHOICES• DO NOTHING and adapt (there WILL be a REAL cost here too)
• MITIGATE (or attempt to) and adapt:– Sequester– Alternate energy sources– Geo-Engineering options– Etc.
• Promote population control: “wear a condom at every ‘conceivable’ moment”
• THINK about it
• But ultimately: CHOOSE WHAT TO DO IN LIFE BEFORE LIFE CHOOSES WHAT YOU DO
FUTURE CLIMATE?
Crowley & Hyde, 2008
PAST
FUTURE
Higher
Lower
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-
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-Glacial
Interglacial
PAST
FUTURE
Higher
Lower
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-
-
-Glacial
Interglacial
NCAR/UCAR GUIDES(Coordinated by Peggy LeMone)
BE THERE AT 8:30 a.m. / 1:00 p.m.2 Groups
Kyle Ham• Current Position: Education Specialist and Bilingual
Educator• University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
(UCAR)• Office of Education and Outreach
Teri Eastburn,• Coordinator, Public Programs• University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
(UCAR)• Office of Education and Outreach
NOAA (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration)
(Coordinated by Dan Winester) BE THERE AT 8:30 a.m. / 1:00 p.m.
Groups of 3
Don Mock, William Murtagh, George Sharman, & Sandy MacDonald:
NOAA; ESRL (Earth Systems Research Lab); SWPC (Space Weather Prediction Center); NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center)
NOAA (cont.)
SOS: Science on a Sphere. This a 3D display of global (and astronomic) projected onto a large sphere. The audience can view and walk around the sphere to bet a global view of data sets. NOAA has over 200 data sets, including time-varying ones. Such data sets as atmospheric processes, plate tectonics, topography, lights at night etc. (40 minutes)
ESRL and other NOAA (Earth Systems Research Lab): (40 minutes)Greenhouse gas lab weather forecast officeWind profilerHigh performance computing centerOzone chemistry
SWPC: Space Weather Prediction Center (20 minutes)Effect of solar storms on electrical transmission, broadcasts, animal navigationGeomagnetic disturbances
NGDC: National Geophysical Data Center (20 minutes)Large array storageNight time lightsPaleoclimatology (Tree rings, ice cores, geologic cores)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSBob Raynolds
Jonathan Bujak
Dag Nummedal
Ian Miller
Peggy LeMone
Caspar Ammann …et al. that I did not mean to omit
Global Warming/Climate Change – Resource Issues – Alternatives Study Group:
FTP SITE: https://sslaccess.elkresources.net/files/