summer seminar on "hurricanes and coastal hazards: - 27. july 2012

Dr. Astrid-Christina KochScience Counselor

EU Delegation to the United States in Washington

Summer Seminar – Hurricanes & Coastal Hazards

Summer SeminarSummer Seminar

• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement

• Hurricane Hazards

• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

• Storm Surge

• National Hurricane Center’s Products

• Stay informed - Make a plan !




• Storm Surge



EU-U.S. Implementing Arrangement

• NOAA and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre signed an implementation arrangement on scientific and other cooperative activities in the fields of climate, weather, oceans and coasts

• Umbrella agreement is the EU-US Science &Technology Agreement of 1998 signed by the Department of State and the European Commission

European CommisionJoint Research Centre (JRC) European CommisionJoint Research Centre (JRC)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)


Joint Research Centre (JRC) Dominique RistoriJoint Research Centre (JRC) Dominique Ristori

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA) Jane Lubchenco



Joint priorities:• Earth observation and data sharing• Climate prediction and monitoring• Regional/global modeling of coastal hazards• Space weather prediction and impact mitigation• Atmospheric and air quality monitoring• Environmental contaminants in marine environments• Fisheries research and management• Promoting coastal activities within multilateral fora

Joint Research Centre (JRC) Dominique RistoriJoint Research Centre (JRC) Dominique Ristori



Specific Nature of Collaboration

• Areas of collaboration– Timely exchange of relevant information on grants and proposals

– Regular review of both Sides’ program reviews and agency announcements

– Shared access to some laboratory facilities, equipment, and materials

– Exchange of personnel with administrative approval

– Shared scientific infrastructure and training of scientists and experts

– Support for joint research and content development for mutual value

• Coordination

– Five-year duration

– No financial obligations

– Intellectual property rights maintained

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•Sentinel 1 – SAR imaging (radar data) (2011) – All weather, day/night applications, interferometry– successor of ENVISAT

•Sentinel 2 – Multispectral imaging (2012)– for land applications, e.g. urban, forest, agriculture– successor of SPOT, Landsat

•Sentinel 3 – Ocean & Land monitoring (2012)– Wide-swath ocean color, vegetation, sea/land surface

temperature, ocean altimetry•Sentinel 4 – Geostationary atmospheric (2017)

– Atmospheric composition monitoring, trans-boundary pollution

•Sentinel 5 – Low-orbit atmospheric (2019)– Atmospheric composition monitoring

GMES: Dedicated to Space Infrastructure





• Storm Surge


• Stay informed – Make a plan !




• Storm Surge


• Stay informed – Make a plan !

Hurricane HazardsHurricane Hazards• Winds

• Storm surge

• Rainfall and inland fresh water flooding

• Tornadoes

• Winds

• Storm surge

• Rainfall and inland fresh water flooding

• Tornadoes

10DANNY (1997) SPAWNS TORNADO IN NORFOLK, VA

WIND RECORD

FROM GUSTAV (2008) IN

CUBA

Hurricane winds can cause tremendous

damage to structures and trees, as shown by

Charley’s damage in southwestern Florida

Hurricane winds can cause tremendous

damage to structures and trees, as shown by

Charley’s damage in southwestern Florida

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Wind-blown Debris can Become Deadly Wind-blown Debris can Become Deadly Projectiles in a HurricaneProjectiles in a Hurricane

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Storm SurgeStorm Surge

• The greatest potential killer in a tropical cyclone

• Abnormal rise in water generated by a storm, over and above the astronomical tide

• Temporary rise in sea level that effectively moves the coastline inland

• Caused primarily by force of wind blowing across water surface

• Contribution by low pressure within center of storm is minimal

• The greatest potential killer in a tropical cyclone

• Abnormal rise in water generated by a storm, over and above the astronomical tide

• Temporary rise in sea level that effectively moves the coastline inland

• Caused primarily by force of wind blowing across water surface

• Contribution by low pressure within center of storm is minimal 13

Hurricane Betsy, 1965, US 1 in the Florida Keys

Hurricane Betsy, 1965, US 1 in the Florida Keys

New Orleans levee overtopping in Katrina

New Orleans levee overtopping in Katrina

Picture by Don McCrosky, Entergy’s Michoud Power Plant Manager

IkeIke’’s Damages Damage

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Before

After

Bolivar Peninsula, TXImages courtesy USGS

Factors Determining Storm Surge Height at a Given Location

Factors Determining Storm Surge Height at a Given Location

• Where the circulation center crosses the coast

• Storm direction of motion relative to coastline

• Strength of the winds (storm intensity)

• Radius of maximum winds

• Overall size of storm (outer wind radii)

• Slope of the continental shelf

• Shape of the coastline and other coastal features (examples: barrier islands, bays, rivers, levees)

• Where the circulation center crosses the coast

• Storm direction of motion relative to coastline

• Strength of the winds (storm intensity)

• Radius of maximum winds

• Overall size of storm (outer wind radii)

• Slope of the continental shelf

• Shape of the coastline and other coastal features (examples: barrier islands, bays, rivers, levees)

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Isabel (2003) - Baltimore, MD

Ike (2008) - Bolivar Peninsula, TX

Fresh Water FloodingFresh Water Flooding

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Hurricane Floyd (1999) Tarboro, NC (Reuters) NC DENR

• U. S. tropical cyclones have produced as much as 43 inches of rain in 24 hours.

• TC rainfall potential depends most on the speed of motion, with slow-moving systems producing the most rain

• Tropical depressions or storms can produce more rain than hurricanes!

• U. S. tropical cyclones have produced as much as 43 inches of rain in 24 hours.

• TC rainfall potential depends most on the speed of motion, with slow-moving systems producing the most rain

• Tropical depressions or storms can produce more rain than hurricanes!

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Interstate 10, Looking West, Houston, Texas

18Interstate 10, Looking West, Houston, Texas

Tropical Storm Allison (2001) Houston Chronicle





• Storm Surge






• Storm Surge



Robert Simpson MeteorologistRobert Simpson Meteorologist

Herbert Saffir Wind EngineerHerbert Saffir Wind Engineer

First publication of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale - 1974:First publication of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale - 1974:

Pressure - Winds - Surge - ImpactsPressure - Winds - Surge - Impacts

Revised Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Revised Saffir-Simpson Hurricane WindWind Scale Scale

MAJOR HURRICANES

TropicalStorm

Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5

39-73 mph(34-63 kt)

74-95mph(64-82 kt)

96-110 mph(83-95 kt)

111-130 mph(96-113 kt)

131-155 mph(114-135 kt)

> 155 mph(> 136 kt)

Alberto(2006)

Katrina(FL - 2005)

Frances(2004)

Katrina(LA - 2005)

Charley(2004)

Andrew(1992)

Allison(2001)

Claudette(2003)

Isabel(2003)

Wilma(FL- 2005)

Hugo(1989)

Camille(1969)

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Categorizes hurricanes by wind speed





• Storm Surge


• FEMA - Have a plan !




• Storm Surge


• FEMA - Have a plan !

HURRICANE LANDFALL AND STORM SURGE

Wind

Side view of Cross Section “ABC”

Sand Duneson Barrier Island

A B C

0’

5O’

100’

150’

200’

Continental Shelf

Top view of Sea Surface and Land

BarrierIsland

Mainland

A B C

Eye

Current

MSL

STORM SURGE

Wind

STORM SURGE

The NWS Storm Surge Program

• Total Water Level Guidance: produce water level analyses, forecasts, and observations that include all contributions to surge

• Surge, tides, waves, fresh water, background anomaly

• Inundation Products: provide information about the water depth over the land (inundation) above ground level (AGL)

• Communicating Actionable Information: provide information that people can act on

• Transition from Deterministic approaches to ensemble/probabilistic approaches

First Generation Inundation Graphic

Actionable Information

• NWS has assembled teams to investigate a collaborative watch/warning CONOPs for storm surge and begin prototyping ideas for implementation– HFIP Social Science contract established to

investigate user requirements/preferences– Initial ideas tested informally during Irene– NHC/WFOs testing collaborative W/W concepts



• Hurricane Hazards• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale• Storm Surge • The National Hurricane Center’s

Products• Stay informed - Have a plan !




National Weather Service hurricane forecast and warning products are like a mosaic…

The National Hurricane Center paints the “big picture”...

and the local Weather Forecast Offices tell the local story

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook mimics the text TWO issued at same time as text TWO

High > 50%Medium 30 – 50%Low < 30%

(20%)

(40%) (70%)

Public AdvisoryAtlantic

Plain-language text product originally intended for “rip and read”

Headline or lead statement Summary information Watches and warnings Center location, motion, forecast Wind speed and forecast Hazards: Wind / Storm surge /

Rainfall / Tornadoes / Waves and Rip Currents Recommended actions

500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT

• Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watch: An announcement that hurricane conditions are possible within the specified area. Watches are issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

• Tropical Storm/Hurricane Warning: An announcement that hurricane conditions are expected within the specified area. Warnings are issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

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New Public Advisory FormatNew Public Advisory Format

Section headers added

Storm information first

Changes to watches and warnings in the current advisory are highlighted

Bulleted summary of all watches and warnings in effect

Section headers

Discussion of forecast motion and intensity and other pertinent information

Storm hazards and impacts, shown by type

New Public Advisory FormatNew Public Advisory Format

Forecast / AdvisoryAtlantic

Only source of all the forecast data

Data is used in HURREVAC and other commercial tracking software Watches and warnings Center location, motion, minimum pressure and eye diameter Forecast positions, intensity and wind radii

500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT

Surface Wind Field

Shows:

Wind field

Past track

Current watches/ warnings

Cumulative Wind History

Track Forecast Cone

3-day cone

5-day cone

NHC Forecast Cone

• Represents the probable track of the center of the tropical cyclone.

• Formed by connecting circles centered on each forecast point (at 12, 24, 36 h, etc.)

• Size of the circles determined so that, say, the actual storm position at 48 h will be within the 48-h circle 67% of the time.

Forecast Period

(h)

2003 Circle Radius (n

mi) (‘98 – ’02 errors)


mi) (‘06 – ’10 errors)

Percent Change

12 49 36 -27%

24 85 59 -31%

36 121 79 -35%

48 164 98 -40%

72 232 144 -38%

96 318 190 -40%

120 439 239 -46%

Cone Radii in the Era of 5-Day ForecastsCone Radii in the Era of 5-Day Forecasts

Forecast Period

(h)


mi) (‘98 – ’02 errors)


mi) (‘06 – ’10 errors)

Percent Reduction

12 43 33 -23%

24 75 59 -21%

36 108 79 -27%

48 131 98 -25%

72 190 134 -29%

96 230 187 -19%

120 252 230 -9%

Atlantic East Pacific

05:45 AM

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05:45 AM

05:45 AM

Cone versus Cone versus Size & ImpactSize & Impact

The Cone DOES NOT

denote area of

impact….

…as Ike’s hurricane

force winds demonstrat

e

Cone versus Cone versus Size & ImpactSize & Impact

DiscussionAtlantic

Free-form text product Provides the reasoning behind forecasts and warnings Discussion of relevant observations, model guidance, and the forecast uncertainties Includes table of track and intensity forecasts

500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT

Surface Wind Speed Probabilities

Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability

Storm Surge Probabilities

Chance of surge > 2 ft Chance of surge > 10 ft

available in 1-ft increments from 2 to 25 ft run when a Hurricane Watch or Warning is in effect

Stay tuned for more from Jamie…

Storm Surge Exceedance ProductStorm Surge Exceedance ProductAvailable in 10% increments from 10% to 90%http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php

All products can be found on All products can be found on the website ofthe website of

The National Hurricane The National Hurricane Center: Center:

http://www.hurricanes.govhttp://www.hurricanes.gov

• Initial idea arose in early 1990’s

• Successfully proven during response to the 1995 Hurricane Season

• Became formal in 1996 by FEMA Director upon request of Governor of Florida and Director of National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Liaison TeamHLT Background

Former National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield discusses where to issue watches and warnings along the west coast of Florida for Hurricane Charley.

Andy Newman

HLTHLT

FEMA NRCC

NationalHurricaneCenter HLT

Hurricane Liaison TeamCommunication Flowchart

FEMA RRCC

State EOCs

Local EOCsLocal NWSFOs

Hurricane

Hotline

DHS NOC

• Facilitate video and audio conference briefings to Federal and State agencies

• Direct issues of importance to the NHC Hurricane Specialists

• Field and refer emergency management calls to appropriate state or other offices

Hurricane Liaison TeamResponsibilities

Former National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read briefing President Barack Obama on Hurricane Irene Saturday, August 27, 2011.

05:46 AM

Hurricane Preparedness WeekHurricane Preparedness WeekEnd of May each yearEnd of May each year

7 informative videos can be found at :http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/

Day 1: The Hurricane Season – Bill Read, NHCDay 2: Storm Surge – Robbie Berg, NHCDay 3: Wind Effects Including Tornadoes – Robert Molleda, WFO MiamiDay 4: Inland Flooding – Dan Gregoria, WFO MiamiDay 5: The “Full Team Effort” – Dan Brown, NHCDay 6: Get a Plan – Craig Fugate, FEMADay 7: What to Do: Before/During/After – Bill Read, NHC

FacebookFacebookhttp://www.facebook.com/US.NOAA.NationalHurricaneCenter.gov

Stay informed !Stay informed !

• NHC website – www.hurricanes.gov

• Local NWS Weather Forecast Office in Sterling close to the Dulles Airport:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/

• NHC website – www.hurricanes.gov

• Local NWS Weather Forecast Office in Sterling close to the Dulles Airport:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/

Make a plan !• U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) –

www.ready.gov

• For Embassies :OFM's Disaster Preparedness Seminar Presentations:

http://www.state.gov/ofm/emergency/c50508.htm

-OFM Disaster Response by Bruce Matthews, OFM's Managing Director -Emergency Preparedness and the Fire Code by the DC Fire and EMC Department -Disasters! How Prepared are YOU? by DepaRtment's Diplomatic Security Protective Liaison Division -Preparedness in the District of Columbia by DC Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency -Providing Assistance to the United States after a Disaster by FEMA

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This presentation was made from slides provided by James Franklin, Branch Chief of the Hurricane Specialist Unit of the National Hurricane Center.

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summer seminar on "hurricanes and coastal hazards: - 27. july 2012

Technology

storm surge hurricane

storm surgeheight

texastropical storm

saffirsimpsonhurricane

surge impacts

ocean land monitoring

coastal activities

pressure winds