Support to the Policy Making Process

Knowledge Maps, Ontologies and multi-criteria decision making

Arantza Aldea

Compendium and multi-criteria decision techniques for policy design

A. Aldea, R. Bañares Alcántara

Students: P. Barton, S. Skrzypczak, R. Egrot. M. Singh, J. Hunt

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The policy processThe policy process

Setting theagenda

Problem definition

Policy design

Policy implementation

Policy enforcement

Policy evaluation

Formulation(Rationale)

Regulation(pharmaceutical processes)

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Rationale for policy decisionsRationale for policy decisions

Development of a system to support the formulation and update of policies

by facilitating communication facilitating communication between policy makers through the

explicit computer representation of

policy intent,

policy content and

policy rationale.

Singh, M., Bañares-Alcántara, R., Skrzypczak, S., Aldea, A.

“A System to Support Policy Development for the Sustainable Production of Biofuels”

International Conference on Food Security and Environmental Change, April 2008.

R. Egrot

“The analysis, selection and implementation within Compendium of suitable multi-

criteria decision techniques for use in the field of policy design”

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We propose a three-stage cyclical model:

1. Representation of the policy’s intent, i.e. the objectives of the objectives of the policypolicy

2. The different policy alternatives are evaluated against a set of evaluated against a set of weighted criteriaweighted criteria representing the objectives.

3. The policy maker can record the justifications for the decisionsrecord the justifications for the decisions using argumentation structures in the form of IBIS networks.

Compendium extension 

Rationale for policy decisionsRationale for policy decisions

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We are using an extended version of CompendiumCompendium to integrate IBIS networks with policy objectives.

Compendium is a hypermedia, knowledge mapping, software tool developed by the Open University (see www.compendiuminstitute.org)

It is customisable, open source, Java-based, and interoperable

with other software via XML.

We have developed the following extensionsextensions to Compendium: ““Options vs. Criteria” matrixOptions vs. Criteria” matrix Global parametersGlobal parameters and sensitivity analysissensitivity analysisSeveral multi-criteria decision techniquesSeveral multi-criteria decision techniques automatic report generationautomatic report generation.

CompendiumCompendium

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Compendium GUICompendium GUI

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Overall decision process for biofuels in ZambiaOverall decision process for biofuels in Zambia

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IBIS network: what crop for biofuelsIBIS network: what crop for biofuels??

Option Versus Criteria Matrix

• A table to show the different alternatives (options) against the criteria which will be used to evaluate every alternative

• First approach developed by S. Skrzypczak

• Table that shows

• position nodes associated with an issue node

• Criteria defined for the user to evaluate the options

• The user will enter scores for each cell and weights for each criteria

• Weighted Sum Method (WSM) employed to give a value to each option

• The option scored highest will be the recommended to the user

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Options vs. Criteria matrix (simplified)Options vs. Criteria matrix (simplified)

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Criteria created by userCriteria created by user

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Declaration of Global ParametersDeclaration of Global Parameters

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Sensitivity analysisSensitivity analysis

Does a change in the value of a Global parameter affect previous decisions?Does a change in the value of a Global parameter affect previous decisions?

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Decision rationaleDecision rationale

The information used to reach decisions is kept so that decisions can be revisited and updated in view of changes to values, evaluation criteria, technical advancements or regulations:

problem discussed, alternatives considered, arguments for or against each of them, criteria, processes that an organisation applies to make

decisions (e.g. their business logic) and assumptions.

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Another MDC methods have been analysed and incorporated to the options vs.. criteria matrix

The Weighted Sum Method (WSM)

The Weighted Product Model (WPM)

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

)()( avwaV iI

i

R(a,b) (v i(a)v i(b)iI

)wi

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Electre family methods (Electre I and Electre II)

A defining feature of this method, and of the Electre family in general, is the use of what are termed concordance and discordance indices. These are designed to measure, respectively, the levels of support for the notion that a given alternative outperforms (or outranks) another and the notion that it does not. That is, the concordance, C(a,b), of alternative a outranking alternative b is a number representing the weight of evidence for the assertion that a outperforms b. Similarly, D(a,b) represents the weight of evidence for the assertion that a does not outrank b.

More details in Rob Egrot’s MSc dissertation

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

New MCD methods incorporated in Compendium

Electre dialog panel

Next Steps

• Integrate all the MCD methods in a complete Compendium project

• Add a report generator facility for all the MCD methods.

• More extend validation of our MCD methods

• Add a tool to extract useful information from the knowledge map•

• Our extended Compendium tool can also be applied to other areas in particular to keep track of the decisions and

rationale behind safety issues.

Ontologies and information extraction

Conclusions

• Compendium and its use for policy development and design

• Open Question• Can our Compendium tool help the safety

technology group?