surrey rail strategy: crossrail 2 assessment · 4.2 planning and economic review 13 4.3 rail review...

Surrey County Council

Surrey Rail Strategy: Crossrail 2 Assessment

Final Report

CR2_02

Issue | 12 October 2015

This report takes into account the particular

instructions and requirements of our client.

It is not intended for and should not be relied

upon by any third party and no responsibility

is undertaken to any third party.

Job number 227787-40

Ove Arup & Partners Ltd

13 Fitzroy Street

London

W1T 4BQ

United Kingdom

www.arup.com

CR2_02 | Issue | 12 October 2015

C:\USERS\LEEM.WS-310319.001\DOCUMENTS\SCC CR2 ASSESSMENT REPORT FINAL.DOCX

Document Verification

Job title Surrey Rail Strategy: Crossrail 2 Assessment Job number

227787-40

Document title Final Report File reference

04-05

Document ref CR2_02

Revision Date Filename SCC CR2 Assessment Report_Draft_20150724 v5.docx

Draft 1 24 July

2015

Description First draft

Prepared by Checked by Approved by

Name Doug Pickering /

Fabrizio Miscio Stephen Bennett Stefan Sanders

Signature

Issue 12 Oct

2015

Filename SCC CR2 Assessment Report_Final_20151012 v8.docx Description Updated to address SCC and stakeholder comments


Name Doug Pickering Stephen Bennett Stefan Sanders

Signature

Filename Description


Name

Signature

Filename

Description


Name

Signature

Issue Document Verification with Document

Surrey County Council Surrey Rail Strategy: Crossrail 2 Assessment

Final Report



Contents

Page

Executive Summary 1

1 Introduction 6

1.1 Background 6

1.2 Crossrail 2 6

1.3 Previous Studies 8

2 Study Approach 9

3 Stakeholder Engagement 10

3.1 Phase 1 Meeting – to inform baseline review 10

3.2 Phase 3 Meeting – to review draft assessment 10

4 Baseline Review 11

4.1 Overview 11

4.2 Planning and Economic Review 13

4.3 Rail Review 15

5 Options Assessment 19

5.1 Crossrail 2 Options 19

5.2 Released Capacity Options 29

6 Summary 33

6.1 Summary 33

6.2 Next Steps 34

Tables Table 1: Crossrail 2 Programme

Table 2: Peak period services to Waterloo under current and future conditions

Table 3: Journey Time Comparison

Table 4: Shepperton Route – Strengths and Weaknesses

Table 5: Hampton Court Route – Strengths and Weaknesses

Table 6: Epsom-Dorking Route – Strengths and Weaknesses

Table 7: SWML Route – Strengths and Weaknesses

Table 8: Guildford New Line Route – Strengths and Weaknesses

Table 9: Crossrail 2 Options – Summary

Table 10: Released capacity - Summary


Final Report



Figures Figure 1: Crossrail 2 Regional Route (source: Crossrail 2)

Figure 2: Geographic scope area of the Wessex Route Study

Figure 3: Crossrail 2 impact in Surrey and the southwest

Figure 4: Additional connectivity provided by Crossrail 2

Figure 5: Surrey station catchment population (2011)

Figure 6: The impact of Crossrail 2 on Surrey rail services

Figure 7: Crossrail 2 - Route Options for Surrey

Figure 8: Crossrail 2 - Assessment Framework

Figure 9: Overall summary - Routes comparison

Figure 10: Released capacity options – Routes affected

Figure 11: Released capacity options - Comparison between population and available services

Appendices

Appendix A

Baseline Review

Appendix B

Options Assessment


Final Report



Page 1

Executive Summary

The Surrey Rail Strategy highlighted that there are major issues on the rail

network that are hindering the achievement of Surrey’s development objectives.

One of the most significant is continued demand growth and crowding on the

South West Main Line (SWML) into London Waterloo.

In the short term, Network Rail and South West Trains are addressing this through

small-scale capacity enhancements and train lengthening. However, a longer term

solution is needed.

The Crossrail 2 project would address these issues by providing vital new

transport capacity on the SWML to accommodate growth and by improving

transport links to provide better connectivity between housing and employment

areas.

The conclusion of this study is that Surrey County Council and its stakeholders

should strongly support the Crossrail 2 project, taking into account the

recommendations in this report on configuration of the services.

However there should also be an awareness that Crossrail 2 represents a major

investment, and it will only produce a positive business case if appropriate levels

of development are supported along the route.

The Crossrail 2 scheme

Crossrail 2 is a new cross-London rail line being developed by TfL with Network

Rail. The scheme is intended to support economic regeneration by providing the

infrastructure needed to build new homes and encourage additional employment.

Although the route alignment is subject to ongoing review and revision, an almost

entirely tunnelled central core has been safeguarded between Wimbledon and

New Southgate and Tottenham Hale. There are various possible routes to the

north into Hertfordshire, and to the southwest into Surrey using existing rail lines.

The service would operate at a high frequency of 30 trains per hour (tph) through

the core tunnel section during peak periods, with around 10tph terminating at

Wimbledon and 20tph continuing into south west London and Surrey. It would be

a stop-all-stations suburban service, along the same lines as the Crossrail 1 model.

In addition, the availability of additional track capacity between New Malden and

Waterloo will allows for released capacity on the SWML that can be used for an

increased number of long distance and fast services to Waterloo station. As a

result, an additional 6-7tph will be available through released capacity, which can

be used to improve connectivity and capacity on these existing lines.

Crossrail 2 has the potential to benefit Surrey in two ways: 1) new direct Crossrail

2 services, cutting journey times and improving connections to central London,

and 2) additional longer distance services on the SWML providing additional

capacity into Waterloo and reducing journey times.

Although journey times will be reduced for some routes given the enhanced

connectivity to Central London, the real benefit for much of Surrey will be


Final Report



Page 2

through the additional capacity. For example, Woking would not experience

journey time benefits from direct Crossrail 2 services (as the station is served by

faster services already), but it will benefit from additional capacity and crowding

relief for services into Waterloo.

Crossrail 2 services in Surrey

A detailed assessment of the proposed Crossrail 2 routes has been undertaken for

this study, as well as consideration of other potential route options for Surrey.

The recommendations emerging from the route assessment are as follows:

Shepperton Route: currently served by 4 trains in peak hours to Waterloo (2

via the SWML direct to Waterloo and 2 via Twickenham). A Crossrail 2

connection would replace the SWML services with 4tph onto the Crossrail 2

network. The journey times to most locations across Central London would

be improved (such as Shepperton to Victoria, which will be reduced from 50

to 43 minutes).

Although journey times will be reduced and the connection is operationally

straightforward (Shepperton station acts as a terminus), rail demand levels are

comparatively low and there is limited development potential, so the case for

connecting Crossrail 2 along the Shepperton route is considered to be

borderline.

Hampton Court Route: is a branch line serving only two stations, and is

currently served by 2tph into Waterloo during the peaks. Crossrail 2 would

provide a more frequent 4tph into Central London, removing the direct

Waterloo connection.

Journey times will be significantly reduced for most journeys, such as 48

minutes to 33 minutes from Hampton Court station to Euston. Journey times

into Waterloo will be increased given the need to interchange on the SWML

(from 33 to 41 minutes). However, Waterloo is not the final destination for

the majority of passengers, and most people will benefit from reduced journey

times to other Central London destinations.

There is a strong evidence base for linking Crossrail 2 to Hampton Court and

the connection is supported. In addition to the journey time benefits, the link

would allow for development and growth potential to be realised.

Operationally the link is also straightforward and the existing infrastructure is

sufficient to accommodate the service.

Epsom-Dorking Route: currently served by 6tph to Waterloo, with a mixture

of semi-fast and slow services. A Crossrail 2 link would likely retain 4tph of

the existing services, in addition to introducing 4tph Crossrail 2 services

through Central London which could commence along the route, most likely

at either Epsom or Dorking given operational capabilities. Our assessment has

therefore looked at two sections of this route: SWML to Epsom (as per the

current Crossrail 2 proposals), and Epsom to Dorking (not included in the

current Crossrail 2 proposal):

There is a very strong evidence base to support providing a route from the

SWML to Epsom, underpinned by substantial journey time savings (such as


Final Report



Page 3

51 to 32 minutes from Epsom to Euston), high levels for existing rail usage

and significant growth forecasts.

Our assessment indicates that there is potentially a case for extending beyond

Epsom to Dorking. Journey times will be improved to Central London

locations, but growth and development potential is lower, although there is

potential in Leatherhead. Further, infrastructure upgrades may be required to

provide track capacity that can deliver the increased service frequency to this

section of the route – but this merits further study.

South-West Main Line Route: there are currently 4tph starting from Woking

or West Byfleet to Waterloo, in addition to the longer-distance fast and semi-

fast services. The current Crossrail 2 service proposal does not extend beyond

Surbiton. Journey time benefits to stations served by semi-fast and fast

services will not be improved by Crossrail 2 (Woking is 35 minutes to

Victoria including interchange time, and would be 49 minutes via a direct

stop-all-stations Crossrail 2 service). However, less well-served stations

would benefit significantly from a Crossrail 2 connection (such as Walton,

Weybridge and West Byfleet, the latter would reduce from 52 to 46 minutes).

There is a strong evidence base for supporting a Crossrail 2 connection to

serve these SWML stations as far as Woking, which acts as the only feasible

terminus from an operational standpoint. The route has existing high

passenger demand and significant development growth potential. However

the operational aspects of this route do require further investigation and need

to be balanced with SWML service patterns and use of released capacity. This

does however merit further study.

Guildford New Line: there is no case for a Crossrail 2 connection on this

route, given relatively low demand and limited development potential on this

route. Journey times will also not be improved, such as Cobham & Stoke

D'Abernon which would remain faster to Central London via the existing

services (45 minutes including an interchange, compared to 53 minutes using

a stop-all-stations Crossrail 2 service).

Crossrail 2 released capacity in Surrey

Crossrail 2 introduces six tracks between Wimbledon and New Malden, which

allows for a more optimised distribution of slow, semi-fast and fast service

patterns. This will create a number of additional train paths (likely to be 5-6tph if

slow trains are introduced, or 6-7tph if semi-fast or fast trains are introduced).

To fully utilise this released capacity, other interventions are required on the

route, such as Waterloo capacity enhancements, Woking flyover (grade-separation

at the junction of SWML and Portsmouth Direct Line) and the European Train

Control System (ETCS) improved signalling system.

The additional services could be used for additional long distance trains (such as

West of England or Portsmouth services), or for shorter distance trains (such as

Alton or Haslemere services). Surrey could therefore benefit from additional

capacity and crowding relief, but the local needs should be balanced with the

needs of the wider southwest route.


Final Report



Page 4

We have assessed the potential use of released capacity to enhance services in

Surrey, and our recommendations are as follows:

South West Main Line: currently served by 11tph into Waterloo, and

released capacity likely to provide an additional 2tph. It is suggested that

Byfleet and New Haw and Walton-on-Thames are considered for additional

semi-fast service calls, as these stations are comparatively underserved by the

current timetable given the magnitude of existing rail usage and growth

forecasts.

Portsmouth Direct line: currently served by 8tph into Waterloo, and released

capacity likely to provide an additional 3tph. Smaller stations on the

Portsmouth Direct Line would benefit from an additional service, and an

additional Haslemere starter is recommended.

Alton Line: currently served by 3tph, and released capacity likely to provide

an additional 1tph. The Alton Line is comparatively underserved and there is

significant growth potential in the Farnham area. An additional 2tph should

be considered, with 1tph commencing at Alton (given the single track section),

and 1tph starting at Farnham.

Camberley Route: not currently connected to the SWML but is

comparatively underserved. Would need infrastructure works to deliver a

direct (grade-separated) connection to the SWML. We recommend this is the

subject of a separate feasibility study to understand costs and benefits.

West of England Line (via Salisbury): currently served by 2tph into

Waterloo, and released capacity likely to provide an additional 1tph fast or

semi-fast service. It is recommended that the additional service calls at

Woking station in Surrey as a minimum.

Woking and Guildford are each served by a number of existing routes and

will benefit from stops on the additional services recommended above to

support growth and development potential, and to alleviate crowding issues.

Summary of recommendations

In summary, it is recommended that Surrey County Council actively support the

following:

Crossrail 2 services:

o Support the current proposals for a Crossrail 2 connection to Hampton

Court and Epsom;

o Request further investigation into amendments to the current proposals:

firstly to test the operational feasibility of an extended service beyond

Epsom to Dorking, and secondly to understand the development benefits

and operational implications of a service along the SWML to Woking; and

o Seek stakeholder support for the case for a Crossrail 2 connection to

Shepperton, which currently has a borderline case and may be subject to

scrutiny. Local commitment to delivering development and growth would

benefit the case for connection.


Final Report



Page 5

Released SWML capacity:

o Support the case for providing additional station calls for semi-fast trains

at Surrey locations that are currently comparatively underserved (namely

Walton and Byfleet and New Haw);

o Support the case for providing additional station calls for fast trains at

Surrey locations that are subject to high rail demand and growth forecasts

(namely Woking and Guildford); and

o Support the case for providing additional starting services at Surrey

destinations with growth potential, namely Alton/Farnham and Haslemere.

Benefits for Surrey

A key issue for rail in Surrey is the constrained capacity on the SWML, with

substantial crowding levels expected to be compounded with forecast rail growth

(40% increase forecast by 2043).

Crossrail 2 will provide capacity benefits through enabling released capacity on

the SWML. This will allow for less crowded trains and more frequent services

into Waterloo from Surrey stations.

Crossrail 2 will provide journey time benefits for locations nearer to London, but

it should be recognised that it will be a stop-all-stations service, and therefore in

some instances existing services will remain faster (such as from Woking,

Guildford and other well-served locations) and have more capacity available.

Crossrail 2 should therefore be supported as a scheme, and it is recommended that

the variations to the preferred route are proposed by Surrey County Council

during the next consultation process.

Crossrail 2 will act as a catalyst to encourage new homes and jobs to be created

along the routes, and this opportunity will need to be embraced in order to make

the case for the investment on routes in Surrey. The Epsom and SWML routes are

the main growth areas with the highest potential development benefits.

Next Steps

The recommended next steps for Surrey County Council and its stakeholders are

as follows:

Use the evidence base and recommendations collected through this study to

provide informed input to the Crossrail 2 consultation process in late 2015;

and

Engage with stakeholders to build knowledge and consensus at a local level,

and to ensure that the nature of Crossrail 2 and potential impacts and benefits

to Surrey are understood.


Final Report



Page 6

1 Introduction

1.1 Background

Arup was commissioned by Surrey County Council (SCC) to develop a Rail

Strategy for Surrey, which was published in September 2013.

Three main issues for rail in Surrey were identified in the Strategy:

Capacity on the South West Main Line, particularly the importance of the Crossrail 2 scheme – the topic of this report.

Local orbital rail services, particularly the need to invest in the North Downs

Line – which has already been studies and is documented in a separate report:

North Downs Line Assessment Report Final (June 2015).

Access to airports – already studied through the Surrey Rail Strategy: Surface Access to Airports study (October 2013).

Building on the Strategy, Surrey County Council (SCC) has asked Arup to

undertake further work focussing on the Crossrail 2 scheme. The objectives of

this assessment study are:

To identify optimum configuration of Crossrail 2 services for Surrey and the

best use of released capacity; and

To provide an evidence base for use when providing input and response to the

Crossrail 2 design development, and subsequent consultation process.

1.2 Crossrail 2

Crossrail 2 is a new cross-London rail line being developed by TfL with Network

Rail. The following diagram identifies the proposed route alignment and options

as submitted for consultation in July 2014.

The route includes a safeguarded central core between Wimbledon and New

Southgate and Tottenham Hale, almost entirely tunnelled through this section.

There are various possible routes to the north into Hertfordshire, and to the

southwest into Surrey using existing rail lines.

In addition to providing new suburban services, Crossrail 2 will release capacity

on the SWML, which can potentially be used to improve connectivity and

capacity on these existing lines.

To date there has been a safeguarding exercise associated with the central route,

and a Funding and Finance Report to establish possible investment streams. The

cost is currently estimated to be £27 billion.

The Mayor of London announced creation of the Crossrail 2 Growth Commission

in July 2015 with widespread business support for the project, and reflecting the


Final Report



Page 7

recognised potential of Crossrail 2 to boost economic growth in London and

across the UK1.

Figure 1: Crossrail 2 Regional Route (source: Crossrail 2)

In January 2015 a team of consultants was chosen from TfL's Engineering and

Project Management Framework (EPMF) to provide specialist advice across four

design development work packages.

1 https://www.london.gov.uk/media/mayor-press-releases/2015/07/mayor-announces-creation-of-

crossrail-2-growth-commission-as-top


Final Report



Page 8

The following table summarises the programme for progression of Crossrail 2,

with the design development expected to conclude in August 2015. A route

public consultation will then follow later in 2015.

Table 1: Crossrail 2 Programme

Phase Timeframe Activity

Phase 1 Feb 2015 – Sep 2015 Design Development

Oct 2015 – Dec 2015 Detailed route public consultation

Phases 2 and 3 2016-2019 Single preferred option is finalised

2017-2020 Submit powers application

2020-2029 Construct and test Crossrail 2

By 2030 Crossrail 2 opens to the public

1.3 Previous Studies

The Surrey Rail Strategy included a key recommendation to free up SWML

capacity by running inner services onto a Crossrail 2 route.

This recommendation translated into actions across a Short, Medium and Long

term programme:

Short term action plan: Commence strong lobbying for further development

of the Crossrail 2 regional scheme to deliver more capacity on the South West

Main Line, working closely with Transport for London and other key

stakeholders.

Medium term action plan: Proactively lobby for the inclusion of Surrey

County Council and partners in the development of the Crossrail 2 scheme.

Long term action plan: Identify further capacity upgrades on the South West

Main Line and enabling schemes for Crossrail 2.

As part of the Long Term Planning Process, Network Rail has published its draft

Wessex Route Study for consultation (in November 2014) which sets out a

strategic vision for the route over the next 30 years.

The Network Rail study concluded that Crossrail 2 is the preferred option for

increasing capacity on the SWML route, offering the ability to increase Main Line

frequency up to 36tph. The primary benefits of Crossrail 2 were noted as:

Improved connectivity offering both the possibility of peak and off peak

frequency improvements on some of the suburban branches.

A large set of new and faster journey opportunities between parts of the

suburban area and central London.

The DfT will use the final version of the study to inform its requirements for the

next rail industry Control Period, CP6 (2019-2024) for investment.


Final Report



Page 9

2 Study Approach

The following figure summarises the study process, which was developed through

discussions with SCC.

Figure 2: Project Phases

Further details of each phase are provided in the following sections as follows:

Baseline Review: summarised in Section 4, and the full report is included in

Appendix A.

Options Development and Assessment: summarised in Section 5, and the

full report is included in Appendix B.


Final Report



Page 10

3 Stakeholder Engagement

Arup and SCC have liaised with the Crossrail 2 development teams from both

Network Rail (NR) and Transport for London (TfL), to ensure that the study

reflects the latest scheme development and assumptions. We are grateful to the

TfL and NR teams for their full cooperation with this study.

An initial meeting was held at the outset of the study (during Phase 1), and a

further meeting was held following production of the preliminary outputs (during

Phase 3).

3.1 Phase 1 Meeting – to inform baseline review

An initial meeting was held during the Baseline Review phase of the study,

therefore allowing the stakeholder inputs to provide a foundation for the

assessment and to ensure consistency with underpinning operational and demand

assumptions.

The meeting provided clarification of:

The Crossrail 2 status, programme and funding commitments.

Base infrastructure assumptions including 6-tracking of the SWML between

New Malden and Wimbledon, extent of the Core tunnelled section (opening

near Wimbledon in the southwest), possible depot sites, and grade separation

required at Woking Station (if served by Crossrail 2).

Base operational assumptions including the intention to run 30tph on Crossrail

2, with a minimum of 4tph on all Crossrail 2 branches, with 10tph

originating/terminating at Wimbledon, and therefore 20tph beyond and

potentially into Surrey. Crossrail 2 is intended to be a metro-style stop-all-

stations rail service, with a relatively low number of seats.

Released capacity on the SWML with Crossrail 2 is estimated to be 15 trains

spread across the peak 3-hour period (unevenly distributed, with 7-8

additional trains operating in the high peak hour itself).

3.2 Phase 3 Meeting – to review draft assessment

A meeting was held with the Crossrail 2 project team following the options

assessment in order to gain feedback on the assessment and draft conclusions.

The stakeholders were broadly in agreement with the study process, inputs and

operational assumptions, and conclusions. A number of refinements and

clarifications were suggested which are reflected within this study report.


Final Report



Page 11

4 Baseline Review

This section provides a summary of the Baseline Review; further details are

included in the full report in Appendix A.

The following terminology is used to describe the rail network serving Surrey:

Suburban services: relates to the routes served by the Main Suburban

network, including branch lines to Shepperton, Hampton Court, Chessington

South, and Epsom onwards to Effingham Junction.

Main Line services: relates to the longer distance routes beyond Surrey

including the Portsmouth Direct Line, Alton Line, West of England Line and

the South West Main Line.

This terminology is consistent with the Wessex Route Study geographic scope.

Figure 2: Geographic scope area of the Wessex Route Study

4.1 Overview

Crossrail 2 offers the following potential benefits to Surrey:

A direct connection to Central London which would reduce the need to

interchange to access key locations such as Victoria and Euston St Pancras for

future HS2 services, therefore reducing journey times.

The availability of additional track capacity between New Malden and

Waterloo which allows for released capacity on the South West Main Line

that can be used for an increased number of long distance and fast services to

Waterloo station.


Final Report



Page 12

Potential for improved frequencies to some destinations in Surrey.

The potential to focus housing and employment growth in locations served by

Crossrail 2.

These advantages should be considered not only from Surrey to London, but also

in the opposite direction given the economic and commercial centres within

Surrey.

Figure 3: Crossrail 2 impact in Surrey and the southwest

The following diagram provides an illustration of the connectivity from Surrey

into Central London with Crossrail 2 and shows that:

Crossrail 2 could connect to stations across the suburban rail network or could

replace or be in addition to the current suburban services. The exact solution

will be dependent on operations and line capacities.

Interchange connections between Crossrail 2 and other Network Rail services

will be important – there are a number of possible opportunities for

interchange stations that need to be explored, principally Surbiton,

Wimbledon and Clapham Junction.


Final Report



Page 13

Figure 4: Additional connectivity provided by Crossrail 2

The Baseline Review encompassed a Planning and Economic review and a Rail

review. Given the high level nature of the study, the intention of the review was

to generate an evidence base to allow an objective and consistent evaluation of the

various route options.

The following sections provide a summary of these reviews.

4.2 Planning and Economic Review

The planning and economic baseline intended to provide a high level snapshot

of existing population and employment figures in addition to growth projections

within a 2km radius of railway stations, rather than a highly detailed review.

4.2.1 Methodology

For existing population figures ONS 2011 data was used, and TEMPRO data

based on 2008 - based population projections was used for population forecasts.

For existing employment data BRES 2013 statistics were used, and TEMPRO

data based on 20008-based population was adopted for future employment

projections.

In addition to the planning forecasts, rail demand usage (existing and growth) was

used as a criteria within the assessment drawing upon Office of Rail Regulation

rail usage data, which is based on actual station usage and therefore presents a true

reflection of a stations catchment area.

Development numbers have been based on Local Plan reviews, with input from

Surrey County Council planning offices.

The following diagram provides an overview of the stations captured within the

review in Surrey.


Final Report



Page 14

Figure 5: Surrey station catchment population (2011)

Further diagrams are included in the Baseline Review report in Appendix A, and

include forecast future population, existing employment, and future employment.

4.2.2 Limitations

Although this approach may not capture local nuances and it is acknowledged that

some datasets are several years old (and some development may have already

occurred), the data does provide the magnitude of growth and development

potential as well as a comparative analysis, which is appropriate for the purposes

of this study. It should be noted that the impact of developments over recent years

may not yet be reflected in available rail usage data, and therefore does need to be

captured in rail growth forecasts.

It is accepted that a 2km catchment will not capture all demand associated with a

station, but was used as a proxy for percentage growth (i.e. not absolute growth).

This radius was also used to avoid duplication of growth for multiple stations.

4.2.3 Conclusions

The following conclusions emerged from the Planning and Economic Baseline

review.

Important population centres in Surrey are Woking (44,300), Guildford

(37,200), Walton-on-Thames (37,700) on the SWML, and Aldershot (40,800)

located just beyond Surrey on the Alton Line. These areas are also forecast to

see the highest net growth by 2031 (10-12%).

Many Surrey residents commute to London (128,000 daily), but there are

employment centres in Surrey, most notably Guildford (41,700 jobs), as well

as Woking (23,900) and Weybridge (18,700). Growth in jobs is expected to


Final Report



Page 15

occur primarily in suburban locations and in the areas surrounding Woking

and Guildford.

Large developments are planned across Surrey with a focus of mixed use

around Guildford, and predominantly housing-led developments located in the

area between Walton-on-Thames (SWML) and Shepperton (Suburban Line).

In future population in the station catchment areas is expected to grow by

approximately 10.5% by 2031 (57,500 more residents), and jobs by

approximately 7.9% (19,100 more jobs). This will result in additional demand

for rail commuting.

4.3 Rail Review

The rail baseline considers the existing rail network and constraints, and

considers how planned rail enhancements (such as ETCS signalling upgrades,

Waterloo station and throat improvements) will affect network capacity and

connectivity in a future without-Crossrail 2 scenario.

The transformational impact of introducing Crossrail 2 can then be understood in

terms of rail capacity into Waterloo, and direct and interchange connections to

other Central London locations. This approach allows various Crossrail 2 route

options into Surrey to be assessed in terms of rail passenger demands and journey

times, as well as in the context of operational feasibility.

4.3.1 Crossrail 2 Impact

There is currently a mixture of suburban and long-distance Main Line services

providing connections from Surrey into London.

Crossrail 2 would introduce a new route via a tunnelled connection from

Wimbledon into Central London. South of Wimbledon the existing suburban

route network would be used for Crossrail 2 services, although additional tracks

would be introduced on the critical sections of the Main Line (most likely through

six-tracking of the section between Wimbledon and New Malden).

The following diagrams illustrate the impact of Crossrail 2 on Surrey rail services.


Final Report



Page 16

Figure 6: The impact of Crossrail 2 on Surrey rail services

4.3.2 Service Operations and Infrastructure Review

A review of the existing and future service patterns has been undertaken to

understand the starting point for Crossrail 2 services:

Existing: all suburban platforms have been lengthened within Control Period

4 (CP4) and are capable of servicing Crossrail 2 trains. The SWML is 4-track

through Surrey but is constrained by capacity inwards of Surbiton, and

through at-grade junctions at both Woking and Basingstoke. The network is

subject to a mixture of service speeds (slow, semi-fast and fast) that adds

complexity to pathing opportunities. Waterloo station throat and platforming

issues are also both constraints to SWML capacity.

Control Period 5 (2014-2019): committed initiatives to deliver platform and

train lengthening to 10-car across the Suburban network. Waterloo station will

offer increased capacity through reopening of the Waterloo International

Terminal (WIT) platforms.

Control Period 6 (2019-2024) and beyond (CP7+): the Wessex Route study

identifies ‘priority interventions’ that will allow for increased SWML capacity,

namely the Basingstoke and Woking grade separations, and additional

platforming capacity at both Guildford and Southampton Central.

With Crossrail 2: the service changes would deliver further SWML capacity,

primarily through the six track formation inwards of New Malden. This allows

for the re-routing of Slow Line services (which currently run on fast lines

from Surbiton to Waterloo) onto the new tracks thereby releasing Fast Line

track capacity.

The following table summarises the assumed capacity in the peak period into

Waterloo under the existing and future conditions.


Final Report



Page 17

Table 2: Peak period services to Waterloo under current and future conditions

4.3.3 Existing Rail Usage Patterns

A review of the existing rail passenger loads has indicated that:

Line loads on long distance SWML morning peak London-bound services are

fully seated by Woking/Basingstoke, with a 40% demand increase forecast to

2043. Additional train length will add limited capacity; additional services are

required.

Line loads on the Suburban line during the morning peak indicated standing

room only on most services from Surbiton inwards. Some passengers are

unable to board the busier trains within the outer London area. Although the

current 10-car capacity increase will deliver an additional 25% capacity,

demand is forecast to increase by 40% by 2043.

TfL undertook a study in 2011 looking at the end destinations of passengers using

the main Central London Termini. For Waterloo arrivals this indicated that:

In 2011 there were 45,500 peak hour arrivals: 55% interchange to London

Underground, 21% walk, 11% bus.

Tottenham Court Road is a key destination – passengers currently use the

Northern Line or walk – these passengers will benefit from a direct Crossrail 2

connection.

The City is a key destination –interchange between CR2 and CR1 at

Tottenham Court Road offers a potential additional route and increase in

capacity between Surrey and the City.

4.3.4 Journey Time Analysis

Crossrail 2 will provide direct connectivity from Surrey to areas of Central

London (such as Victoria, West End, Euston or St Pancras) that currently require

interchange (typically at Clapham Junction, Vauxhall or Waterloo). This direct

connection will provide shorter journey times for many passengers.


Final Report



Page 18

However, Crossrail 2 is likely to be a high frequency service, and all services will

stop at all stations. Therefore fast/semi-fast Main Line services from locations

further away from Central London may offer shorter journey times even with an

interchange. For example, passengers in Woking (and further southwest) will not

benefit through journey times by a direct Crossrail 2 connection, but rather the

benefit would be through additional SWML capacity.

An analysis of journey times has been undertaken from primary Surrey locations

with and without Crossrail 2 to key destinations in Central London.

Table 3: Journey Time Comparison2

The existing network provides a direct connection into Waterloo, with fast

journeys for passengers travelling on long distance trains from well served

stations such as Woking and Guildford.

However, passengers travelling to destinations in other parts of Central London

are required to interchange, notably at Clapham Junction or Waterloo.

Crossrail 2 will provide a direct connection to many parts of Central London, but

is likely to be a stopping service.

Passengers travelling from existing suburban stations will benefit from time

saved due to a direct connection avoiding the need to interchange.

Passengers travelling from well served longer distance stations (Woking,

Haslemere) will benefit from released Main Line capacity, potentially offering

a more frequent service into Waterloo.

Passengers travelling from less well served longer distance stations (West

Byfleet, Aldershot) who are served by slower trains on the Main Line, will

benefit from the reduced number of interchanges with Crossrail 2, which has a

comparable train speed.

2 Journey times are point-to-point and do not include station access times or waiting times, but do

include interchange time. Rail journey times also vary from service to service and therefore the

journey times represent a ‘typical’ journey. For SWML services the fastest journey is shown.

Journey times have been calibrated to broadly align with the journey time data publicised by

Crossrail 2, and included in the consultation materials.

Not using CR2 Using CR2 Not using CR2 Using CR2 Not using CR2 Using CR2 Not using CR2 Using CR2

Aldershot 47 75 73 63 59 65 62 67

Alton 67 92 86 80 79 82 82 84

Ascot 56 78 59 66 68 68 71 70

Brookwood 35 79 54 67 47 69 52 71

Byfleet & New Haw 37 57 56 45 49 47 54 45

Camberley 72 119 73 68 84 71 89 73

Cobham & Stoke D'Abernon 36 53 49 41 48 43 53 45

Chessington South 38 36 39 24 50 26 53 28

Dorking 53 59 54 47 65 49 68 51

Effingham Junction 40 61 48 49 52 51 55 53

Epsom 36 40 37 28 48 30 51 32

Esher 23 43 42 31 35 33 40 35

Farnham 53 81 79 69 65 71 68 73

Guildford 37 73 63 61 49 63 52 65

Hampton Court 33 41 41 29 45 31 48 33

Haslemere 52 93 78 81 64 83 67 85

Hinchley Wood 26 43 39 31 38 33 43 35

Kingston 32 33 33 22 44 24 47 26

Milford 50 87 64 51 62 54 67 56

Shepperton 51 55 52 43 63 45 66 47

Staines 37 60 44 48 49 50 52 52

Twickenham 26 44 36 32 38 34 41 36

Walton-on-Thames 29 49 48 37 41 39 46 41

West Byfleet 40 58 52 46 52 48 57 50

Weybridge 34 54 60 42 46 44 49 46

Windsor 56 79 59 67 68 69 71 71

Woking 27 61 35 49 39 51 44 53

London Waterloo London Victoria Tottenham Court Road London Euston


Final Report



Page 19

5 Options Assessment

This section provides a summary of the Options Assessment; further details are

included in the full report in Appendix B.

The Options Assessment covers two main areas of analysis:

Crossrail 2 options - assesses which routes and stations in Surrey would

benefit from a Crossrail 2 connection, and the required service frequency.

Released Capacity options - Crossrail 2 will release 6-7tph on the SWML

fast line. The assessment considers how this capacity could best be used for

Surrey.

5.1 Crossrail 2 Options

The Crossrail 2 options includes connections to all branch lines within Surrey:

Purple routes are included in the current Crossrail 2 proposals:

Shepperton Route

Hampton Court Route

Epsom Route (as far as Dorking)

Chessington South and Twickenham Routes are both proposed in the current

Crossrail 2 proposals but do not include Surrey stations and have therefore not

be assessed. However, it is recognised that a significant volume of the

Chessington South area falls within Surrey, and that significant growth

potential in this area indicates that this route has a strong case for Crossrail 2.

Red routes were identified as ‘borderline’ within the baseline journey time

analysis:

SWML Route (beyond Surbiton as far as Woking)

Guildford New line Route


Final Report



Page 20

Figure 7: Crossrail 2 - Route Options for Surrey

5.1.1 Assessment Framework

An Assessment Framework was developed to objectively appraise each of the

options. The framework includes both qualitative and quantitative metrics,

drawing on the data captured within the Baseline Review where possible. Metrics

were classified into three areas: Passenger impact, Opportunity impact and

Constraints as follows:

Passenger Impact

Rail usage: this metric is based on the number of people using a specific

station during peak hours and the percentage variation between the years 2004

and 2013; if the demand is significant Crossrail 2 has a higher impact score.

Journey times: an evaluation of the journey times with and without Crossrail

2 from Surrey stations to major destinations in Central London; if Crossrail 2

reduces the journey time, the impact score is higher.

Crowding: the crowding on each route is based on link load diagrams

included within the Wessex Route Study. If routes are more crowded,

Crossrail 2 offers a higher impact score

Opportunity Impact

Existing catchment: the population and employment within a 2km radius; a

higher value equates to a higher assessment score.

Growth forecast: is the forecast development of both population and

employment to 2031 levels; greater value equates to a higher assessment

score.

Station development potential: an evaluation of the available existing

facilities and the potential for development of space adjacent to the station,

considering the possibility for the station to become a local commercial or

interchange local hub; greater potential equates to a higher assessment score.


Final Report



Page 21

Constraints

Operational: is used to describe potential issues with accommodating

Crossrail 2 services; major issues result in a lower score.

Infrastructure: a station might require some works to improve the

accessibility or to accommodate different trains; positive scores are achieved

if the existing station require comparatively less works.

Each metric was scored using a range from negative (-1) to High (+2). The

following figure illustrates the scoring thresholds.

Figure 8: Crossrail 2 - Assessment Framework

This encompassing range of criteria allows for comprehensive appraisal of a route

option, whilst avoiding any single factor from driving an outcome (for example if

planning data has not captured more recent developments, the score for this single

criteria is unlikely to dictate the case for the route). This approach is therefore

considered to be robust and appropriate for this study.

5.1.2 Options Assessment

All assessed Crossrail 2 options are summarises in this section including:

A table outlining the overarching strengths and weaknesses for the option

A summary with findings and conclusions.

Full details on the assessment of each station across all routes are included in

Appendix B.


Final Report



Page 22

5.1.2.1 Shepperton Route

Table 4: Shepperton Route – Strengths and Weaknesses

Current Services

4tph to Waterloo (2tph via SWML, 2tph via Twickenham)

Crossrail 2 Proposal

4tph onto Crossrail 2

2tph to Waterloo via Twickenham during peaks

No direct Waterloo services via SWML other than via interchange

Assessment Findings

Journey times will benefit from Central London destination, although potential

loss of Waterloo via-SWML services will result in a minor increase in journey

times for some passengers.

Clapham Junction connection is maintained for interchange with SWML, but

the line will lose a connection to Vauxhall Station (but primarily used for

interchange only).

Planned development along the route includes 430 dwellings at Sunbury, 370

dwellings in the Upper Halliford to Shepperton area.

Shepperton would benefit from a Crossrail 2 service, but the case is not as

strong as other routes due to lower rail usage and limited development

potential, and possible infrastructure works at Shepperton station.

In summary, there is a borderline case in support of a Crossrail service onto

the Shepperton route. However, the balance of suburban via SWML,

suburban via Windsor lines, and Crossrail 2 services would need to be

considered further.

Recommendation

Although journey times will be reduced and the connection is operationally

straightforward (Shepperton station acts as a terminus), rail demand levels are

comparatively low and there is limited development potential, so the case for

connecting Crossrail 2 along the Shepperton route is considered to be borderline.


Final Report



Page 23

5.1.2.2 Hampton Court Route

Table 5: Hampton Court Route – Strengths and Weaknesses

Current Services

2tph to Waterloo via SWML


4tph to Crossrail 2

No direct Waterloo services

Assessment Findings

Medium development potential, with up to 425 dwellings between Thames

Ditton and Hinchley Wood, and potential for development around Hampton

Court.

Journey times will not significantly disbenefit from the removal of Waterloo

services. Clapham Junction connection maintained for interchange. Vauxhall

Station connection removed, but primarily used for interchange only.

Operationally introducing Crossrail 2 services will be relatively

straightforward using the proposed 6-tracking, and would deliver significant

journey time and frequency benefits to passengers.

There is a strong evidence base to support 4tph to Hampton Court via

Crossrail.

Recommendation

There is a strong evidence base for linking Crossrail 2 to Hampton Court and the

connection is supported. In addition to the journey time benefits, the link would

allow for development and growth potential to be realised. Operationally the link

is also straightforward and the existing infrastructure is sufficient to accommodate

the service.


Final Report



Page 24

5.1.2.3 Epsom-Dorking Route

Table 6: Epsom-Dorking Route – Strengths and Weaknesses

Current Services

6tph direct to Waterloo


4tph to Crossrail 2 (from either Epsom or Dorking).

No direct Waterloo suburban services (i.e. stopping all stations services).

4tph semi-fast and fast services remain to Waterloo (from Dorking, Guildford).

Assessment Findings

Crossrail 2 connecting as far as Epsom:

Journey times will benefit significantly from Crossrail 2, with fast train

services into Waterloo remaining.

Crossrail 2 services would benefit existing users throughout the route to

Epsom, and could enable future growth.

Epsom Station has recently undergone redevelopment, and Crossrail 2 could

help to deliver further planned Epsom Town Centre proposals.

The Worcester Park to Epsom route has development potential, with 2700

dwellings planned in the Ewell-Epsom area (Local Plan for the period 2007-

2022).

Crossrail 2 running beyond Epsom to Dorking:

Journey times would see minor benefits for passengers travelling to Central

London (typically <5 minutes).

However, rail demand and crowding levels are all comparatively low along

this route.


Final Report



Page 25

There is a moderate development and growth potential along the route,

although the connection would support Leatherhead and Dorking town centre

plans and aspirations

Recommendation

There is a very strong evidence base to support 4tph as far as Epsom via

Crossrail 2 – this is underpinned by a range of factors - journey time benefits,

operational feasibility, existing rail demand and growth.

There is a borderline evidence base to support Crossrail 2 beyond Epsom

towards Dorking. Journey times will be improved to Central London

locations, but growth and development potential is lower, although there is

potential in Leatherhead. Further, infrastructure upgrades may be required to

provide track capacity that can deliver the increased service frequency to this

section of the route – but this merits further study.

Operationally additional Crossrail 2 services are straightforward to implement,

although pathing will need to be explored for and may restrict the number of

services that can be introduced – particularly given the existing mixture of fast

and semi-fast services.

5.1.2.4 SWML Route

Operations Review

Operationally the SWML is complex given track configuration (through Surrey

generally two outer slow line tracks, and two inner fast line tracks) and mixture of

slow, semi-fast and fast service patterns. Therefore termination and turnaround of

slow line services requires crossing and conflict with fast lines.

Intermediate stations (such as Hersham, West Byfleet) would potentially gain a

significant benefit from Crossrail 2. However, the opportunities for terminating

services along this section are limited; stations such as Weybridge and Walton-on-

Thames would require significant infrastructure works (additional platforming,

flyovers) to act as a terminus and offer turnaround capabilities.

Woking Station is the most operationally feasible terminus. However, increasing

the number of terminating services (beyond an additional 2tph above the current

2tph) needs to be operationally tested and further turnaround facilities

investigated. Termination of Crossrail 2 services at Woking may also require an

operational trade-off with the level of released capacity that can be realised,

particularly if there are conflicting moves into or out of the existing bay platform,

or shared use of the through platforms in order to turnback beyond the proposed

Woking Junction flyover.

Extending Crossrail 2 beyond Woking, for example to Brookwood station, has not

been assessed for two reasons:

1) Any stations beyond Woking will not achieve journey time benefits through

Crossrail 2: fast or semi-fast Main Line services will continue to deliver the

quickest services, with interchange at Crossrail 2 closer to London allowing

connections to Central London destinations.


Final Report



Page 26

2) Most stations cannot accommodate terminating/originating services without

substantial works: Woking is a more feasible terminus if Crossrail 2 services

are determined to serve the Main Line route.

Table 7: SWML Route – Strengths and Weaknesses

Current Services

4tph to Waterloo originate at Woking or West Byfleet


No Crossrail 2 service beyond Surbiton

Waterloo suburban services remain as current

Assessment Findings

Development potential would benefit from the scheme (a planning application

has been submitted for over 1,000 dwellings at Hersham, and Byfleet has

potential to expand strong industry/business base) and there may be further

development opportunities around other station locations.

Journey times for intermediate stations will benefit significantly from

Crossrail 2.

Additional rail services required for capacity, which could be delivered either

through released SWML capacity or through direct Crossrail 2 services.

The balance of Crossrail 2 and suburban services will require investigation;

however, given that SWML fast services will remain into Waterloo, removal

of suburban Waterloo services will not result in significant disbenefits (e.g.

passengers will be able to access the Victoria Line at Victoria rather than

Vauxhall, and passengers heading to the City area will be able to interchange

onto Crossrail 1 at Tottenham Court Road).

Woking station is the most feasible terminus for Crossrail 2 services, although

delivering more than an additional 2tph is operationally difficult and will need

to be investigated.

Evidence indicates that a Crossrail 2 service proposition serving Walton,

Weybridge and the Byfleet stations and terminating at Woking should be

supported and further investigated.


Final Report



Page 27

A connection to Woking would also deliver an interchange connection to the

coach service to Heathrow Airport.

Recommendation

There is a strong evidence base for supporting a Crossrail 2 connection to serve

these SWML stations as far as Woking, which acts as the only feasible terminus

from an operational standpoint. The route has existing high passenger demand

and significant development growth potential. However the operational aspects of

this route do require further investigation and need to be balanced with SWML

service patterns and use of released capacity, and plans for major interventions at

Woking station (e.g. Woking flyover). This does however merit further study.

5.1.2.5 Guildford New Line Route

Table 8: Guildford New Line Route – Strengths and Weaknesses

Given the low demand and limited development potential, the conclusion for the

Guildford New Line is that Crossrail 2 will not offer any substantial benefits.

Guildford New Line scores poorly on a range of criteria (notably it does not

improve journey times and faces complex operational challenges). It is highly

unlikely that any additional developments or changes to the planning baseline

would change this conclusion.

Recommendation

There is no case for a Crossrail 2 connection on this route, given relatively low

demand and limited development potential on this route. Journey times will also

not be improved, such as Cobham & Stoke D'Abernon, which would remain faster

to Central London via the existing services (45 minutes including an interchange,

compared to 53 minutes using a stop-all-stations Crossrail 2 service).

5.1.2.6 Windsor Lines

Crossrail 2 is planned to be tunnelled through to Wimbledon, and therefore cannot

directly serve the Windsor Lines which connect to the SWML at Clapham

Junction. The Chertsey branch line connects with the SWML at Weybridge, but

would not benefit from journey time savings and cannot operationally serve

originating/terminating services (lack of turnback capability).


Final Report



Page 28

However, passengers using the Windsor Lines will benefit from the Crossrail 2

proposals:

Existing Windsor Line services connect with Crossrail 2 services at

Clapham Junction, therefore offering passenger an interchange that would

allow for a faster service to Central London.

Additional Crossrail 2 services commencing at Twickenham would

provide an increased frequency for passengers travelling via Kingston to

the SWML.

This additional connection and increased service frequency will alleviate

the pressure on existing interchange stations and peak services.

5.1.3 Summary

The following diagram summarises the assessment scoring for all routes.

Figure 9: Overall summary - Routes comparison

The headlines of the route assessment are as follows:

Shepperton Route: although journey times will be reduced and the

connection is operationally straightforward (Shepperton station acts as a

terminus), rail demand levels are comparatively low and there is limited

development potential, so the case for connecting Crossrail 2 along the

Shepperton route is considered to be borderline.

Hampton Court Route: a strong overall good score underpinned by high

demand and some development potential, which justifies a strong case for a

Crossrail 2 service. Operationally the increased service frequency is

straightforward to implement.

Epsom-Dorking Route: has a scoring pattern that clearly breaks the line in

two sections.


Final Report



Page 29

o Up to Epsom the stations score well due to journey time savings and

development potential – and there is a strong case for Crossrail 2.

o Beyond Epsom there is a borderline case for a link to Dorking which

would experience more moderate journey time benefits but would benefit

from links to the town centres at Dorking and Leatherhead. Further

investigation of the operational implications is required.

South-West Main Line Route: there is a clear and strong case for extending

Crossrail 2 beyond Surbiton on the SWML in order to serve a route with high

passenger demand and significant development growth potential. However

operational aspects of this route require further investigation and need to be

balanced with use of released capacity and SWML service patterns.

Guildford New Line: there is no case for a Crossrail 2 connection given low

demand and limited growth or development potential.

The following table provides further commentary of the assessment findings for

each route, highlighting any issues (operational and infrastructure) that will need

to be further explored and overcome in order to confirm the deliverable Crossrail

2 service provision.

Table 9: Crossrail 2 Options – Summary

5.2 Released Capacity Options

Through six-tracking between New Malden and Wimbledon, Crossrail 2 will

release capacity for SWML services. The number of released services will

depend on the residual type of services that are introduced (i.e. mixture of slow,

semi-fast and fast patterns). Network Rail has indicated that an additional 6 or

7tph are likely to be released.


Final Report



Page 30

This assessment considers how this capacity could best be used for Surrey

considering the areas beyond the Suburban rail network – longer distance trips

will not benefit from journey time savings resulting from Crossrail 2, but do

require additional capacity and therefore could benefit from additional services

into Waterloo.

Additional long distance services will also benefit counties and towns beyond

Surrey, such as Hampshire, Dorset, Portsmouth and Southampton. The use of

these additional services needs to be balanced across all routes to deliver the most

effective improvements.

The following diagram presents the route options that have been evaluated as part

of the released capacity assessment, focusing on benefits to Surrey.

Figure 10: Released capacity options – Routes affected

5.2.1 Service Level Analysis

In order to appraise the need for additional released capacity, an assessment of the

comparative service level for each route has been undertaken. This process has

involved analysis of the number of direct services (based on the current timetable)

into Waterloo per station (based on the future station catchment).

The following chart compares the number of trains serving the catchment

population on each route and indicates the following:

Some Surrey stations are comparatively underserved by direct services to

Waterloo:

o Alton Route: all stations - Farnham, Ash Vale and Aldershot

o Camberley Route: Camberley and Frimley

o SWML: Byfleet and New Haw and Walton-on-Thames


Final Report



Page 31

Both the Guildford New Line and Portsmouth Direct lines are well served –

although Guildford is potentially underserved as a regional centre with

substantial growth forecasts and development opportunities.

Figure 11: Released capacity options - Comparison between population and

available services

5.2.2 Summary

The following table provides a summary of the current and proposed service

frequency into Waterloo for each route, and a summary of the assessment

findings.

South West Main Line: currently served by 11tph into Waterloo, and

released capacity likely to provide an additional 2tph. It is suggested that

Byfleet and New Haw and Walton-on-Thames are considered for additional

semi-fast service calls, as these stations are comparatively underserved by the

current timetable given the magnitude of existing rail usage and growth

forecasts.

Portsmouth Direct line: currently served by 8tph into Waterloo, and released

capacity likely to provide an additional 3tph. Smaller stations on the

Portsmouth Direct Line would benefit from an additional service, and an

additional Haslemere starter is recommended.

Alton Line: currently served by 3tph, and released capacity likely to provide

an additional 1tph. The Alton Line is comparatively underserved and there is

significant growth potential in the Farnham area. An additional 2tph should

be considered, with 1tph commencing at Alton (given the single track section),

and 1tph starting at Farnham.


Final Report



Page 32

Camberley Route: not currently connected to the SWML but is

comparatively underserved. Would need infrastructure works to deliver a

direct (grade-separated) connection to the SWML. We recommend this is the

subject of a separate feasibility study to understand costs and benefits.

West of England Line (via Salisbury): currently served by 2tph into

Waterloo, and released capacity likely to provide an additional 1tph fast or

semi-fast service. It is recommended that the additional service calls at

Woking station in Surrey as a minimum.

Woking and Guildford are each served by a number of existing routes and

will benefit from stops on the additional services recommended above to

support growth and development potential, and to alleviate crowding issues.

The overall conclusions are that an additional 6tph or 7tph are assumed to be

deliverable on the South West Main Line. The mixture of services across all

routes needs to be considered across the wider southwest region – this analysis

has focussed on the stations and areas within Surrey that would benefit from a

future capacity increase.

Table 10: Released capacity - Summary


Final Report



Page 33

6 Summary

6.1 Summary

The Crossrail 2 options assessment has indicated:

There is a robust evidence base to support the Crossrail 2 proposals for the

following routes:

o Hampton Court –significant journey time savings, straightforward

operationally, moderate growth potential.

o Epsom – significant journey time savings, and to support substantial

growth and development potential.

o SWML - there is a strong evidence base for providing Crossrail 2

connectivity to serve the stations between Esher and West Byfleet.

Operationally it may be necessary to extend Crossrail 2 to Woking which

is operationally the most likely terminus. However, the frequency will be

dependent on the operational feasibility which needs to be explored.

There is a borderline case for Crossrail 2 to be extended to serve the following

routes:

o Shepperton – comparatively low demand, but relatively straightforward

operationally. Limited development potential, but substantial journey time

savings.

o Dorking – moderate journey time savings, but opportunity to support town

centre growth and development potential. A more detailed operational

review is required.

In addition to journey time savings, these routes would benefit from the direct

connectivity to Central London, and from the opportunity to interchange to

Crossrail 1 at Tottenham Court Road, and potentially to HS2 at Euston St

Pancras.

There is no case for linking Crossrail 2 onto the Guildford New Line.

Crossrail 2 would not offer journey time benefits to Guildford. The growing

demands for rail capacity from Guildford would be better met by additional

released Main Line capacity (as below).

The Released Capacity options assessment has indicated:

An additional 6 or 7 peak hour fast line trains can be operated (subject to

further feasibility), balanced across the network.

Woking and Guildford would benefit from additional trains. In addition,

evidence indicates:

o Byfleet and New Haw and Walton-on-Thames are comparatively

underserved and should be considered for an additional semi-fast service

call.


Final Report



Page 34

o The Alton Line is comparatively underserved, and an additional 2tph

should be considered – including 1tph starting at Farnham to boost growth

potential.

o The Camberley Route section between the SWML to Bagshot is

comparatively underserved, but would be costly to connect to the SWML

– and needs a feasibility study.

o Stations on the Portsmouth Direct Line would benefit from an additional

service, possibly through an additional Haslemere or Guildford starter.

6.2 Next Steps

The recommended next steps for Surrey County Council and its stakeholders are

as follows:

Use the evidence base and recommendations collected through this study to

provide informed input to the Crossrail 2 consultation process in late 2015.

Engage with stakeholders to build knowledge and consensus at a local level,

and to ensure that the nature of Crossrail 2 and potential impacts and benefits

to Surrey are understood.

Appendix A

Baseline Review


Final Report



Page A1

A1

Appendix B

Options Assessment


Final Report



Page B1

B1

surrey rail strategy: crossrail 2 assessment · 4.2 planning and economic review 13 4.3 rail review...

Documents