survey on turkish elites’ perceptions on · 2016. 12. 21. · survey results | 14 december 2016...

Survey Results | 14 December 2016

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Survey on Turkish Elites’ Perceptions on

Turkish Foreign Policy and Greek-Turkish

Relations

Dimitrios Triantaphyllou

14 December 2016 A survey hosted by


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In this research, Turkish elites are grouped within six categories as follows:

→Businessmen: Members of TUSIAD, TOBB, MUSIAD, and TUSKON

→Journalists: Diplomatic correspondents, senior editors, commentators in

major dailies, TV and radio stations as well as news websites

→Diplomats: Directorate heads, deputy heads and senior Embassy staff as

well as retired ambassadors

→Military: Officers ranking brigadier general and higher as well as retired

senior officers

→Politicians: Members of the Committee on National Defence; the

Committee on Foreign Affairs; the Committee on EU harmonization; and

the Committee on Security and Intelligence of related ministries

→Academics/Think-tanks representatives: IR and politics faculty members

as well as representatives from think-tanks

HOW DOES THE SURVEY DEFINE ELITES?


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The questionnaire was hosted by Infakto Research Workshop.

First Launch: 2 March 2016 (eight weeks)

Second Launch: 17 November 2016 (four weeks)

Research Team: Dimitrios Triantaphyllou (Project Manager) & Cihan Dizdaroğlu (Project Assistant)

CATEGORY

NUMBER OF

PEOPLE RESPONSES

RESPONSE

RATE

Academics/think-tank 304 99 32,5%

Military 150 33 22%

Diplomats 196

39 7% Journalists 208

Businessmen 143

Politicians 149 1 -

TIME FRAME & NUMBERS


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The first survey focused on National Role and Foreign Policy: A Descriptive Study of Greek Elites’ Perceptions towards Turkey

Conducted by Dimitrios Triantaphyllou & Kostas Ifantis for the Hellenic Observatory, part of the European Institute at the London School of Economics.

Dates: 1 October 2013-17 November 2014 (the survey was conducted in 2014)

The questionnaire was hosted by Kapa Research (Athens)

ABOUT THE GREEK SURVEY (1)


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ABOUT THE GREEK SURVEY (2)

CATEGORY NUMBER OF

PEOPLE RESPONSES

RESPONSE

RATE

Academics 102 53 51,9%

Press 90 40 41,6%

Diplomats 88 26 29,5%

Politicians 66 25 37,8%

Military 96 45 46,8%

Business 80 30 37,6%


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Three Sets of Questions

Turkey’s position in the world, its influence on the regional developments and/or global politics (Q 1-13)

Greece’s foreign policy, its internal affairs, and its role in world politics (Q 14-25)

Greek-Turkish Relations (Q 26-41)

QUESTIONS


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Q2: Do you believe that Turkish foreign policy can

influence international politics?

TURKEY’S ROLE IN THE WORLD (1)

84,3% 15,7

%

Affirmative Negative5,1%

5,1%

69,2%

20,5%

12,1%

6,1%

60,6%

21,2%

9,1%

8,1%

67,7%

15,2%

No

Rather No

Rather Yes

Yes

Academics/Think-tanks Military Other


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Q3: Turkey can influence international politics with the quality of its

ideas and its commitment to International Law

41%

41%


20,5%

20,5%

12,8%

23,1%

17,9%

15,2%

12,1%

18,2%

39,4%

12,1%

22,2%

24,2%

13,1%

29,3%

8,1%

Totally disagree

Rather disagree

Neither agree, nor disagree

Rather agree

Totally agree

Academics/Think-tanks Military Other3 per cent of the respondents

stated that they have no opinion.


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Q4: Turkey can influence international politics because of it is

memberships in several international organizations

65,7%

21%


7,7%

12,8%

10,3%

53,8%

15,4%

12,1%

12,1%

12,1%

54,5%

6,1%

5,1%

15,2%

11,1%

55,6%

10,1%

Totally disagree

Rather disagree


Rather agree

Totally agree

Academics/Think-tanks Military Other3 per cent of the respondents



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Q5: Turkey meets the international obligations deriving from its

participation in the UN, NATO, and other organizations.

57%

25,6%


5,1%

17,9%

20,5%

10,3%

30,8%

15,4%

6,1%

3,0%

6,1%

6,1%

45,5%

33,3%

4,0%

6,1%

20,2%

16,2%

36,4%

17,2%

Don't know/No opinion

Totally disagree

Rather disagree

Neither agree, nordisagree

Rather agree

Totally agree



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Q6: To what degree do you believe that global concerns

(Afghanistan, Syria, sub-Saharan Africa, Ukraine, international

terrorism, global warming, etc.) concern Turkish foreign policy?


76,2%

15,1%

8,7%

Too much/much Somewhat Little/minimally


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Q7: In your opinion, do the Turkish citizens support a more active

foreign policy that is not limited to the ‘traditional’ (Greek-Turkish

relations, Cyprus issue, controversy between Turkey and Armenia about

the events of 1915, etc.) foreign policy issues?


71,5%

26,7%

1,7%

Affirmative Negative Don't know/No opinion


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Q8: Have principles of Turkish foreign policy and the influence of the

country been influenced due to the Arab Spring and to what degree?

71,5%

3%


2,6%

5,1%

10,3%

46,2%

35,9%

9,1%

30,3%

21,2%

36,4%

2,0%

1,0%

24,2%

30,3%

42,4%

Minimally/Not at all

A little

Somewhat

Much

Too much

Academics/Think-tanks Military Other3 per cent of the military officers

stated that they have no

opinion.


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Q9: Distancing from the West and

moving towards the Muslim world Q10: The bridge role between the

West and the Muslim world


79,1%

6,4%

11,6%

Totally/Rather AgreeNeither agree, nor disagreeTotally/Rather Disagree

58,1%

12,8%

26,7%


3 per cent of the respondents in both

questions stated that they have no

opinion.


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GREECE’S FOREIGN POLICY (1)

Q14: Greece is a strategic partner of

the US

45,9%

20,3%

30,2%


Q16: Even though Greece is a small nation,

it can influence international politics

45,9%

11,6%

38,4%


3.5 per cent of

the respondents

stated that they

have no opinion.

4.1 per cent of

the respondents

stated that they

have no opinion.


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Q17: Greece can influence international

politics because it is a member of the EU

and NATO

66,3%

8,7%

22,7%


Q15: Greece is an important EU

member state

47,7%

12,8%

36,0%


3.5 per cent of

the respondents

stated that they

have no opinion.

2.3 per cent of

the respondents

stated that they

have no opinion.


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Q18: The economic crisis in Greece has

impacted its foreign policy.

Q19: Has the prestige and the influence of

the country been influenced due to the

economic crisis and what degree?


84%

5%

11%


92% 5%

3%

Too Much/MuchSomewhatLittle/Minimally

2.9 per cent of the respondents



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Q20: Does Greece have any

alternatives other than the EU?

16% 84%

Affirmative Negative

76,9%

7,7%

12,8%

2,6%

63,6%

12,1%

6,1%

15,2%

72,7%

12,1%

7,1%

7,1%

No

Rather No

Rather Yes

Yes


1.7 per cent of the respondents stated that they

have no opinion.


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Q11: Turkey can play an active role in

reducing the EU's energy dependence

61%

22%

EU’S ENERGY DEPENDENCE

Q22: Greece can play an active role in

reducing the EU's energy dependence

62%

34%

20,5%

23,1%

43,6%

12,8%

9,1%

18,2%

51,5%

15,2%

11,1%

21,2%

52,5%

11,1%

No

Rather No

RatherYes

Yes


7,7%

15,4%

10,3%

51,3%

15,4%

12,1%

6,1%

15,2%

39,4%

21,2%

8,1%

15,2%

15,2%

46,5%

13,1%

Totally disagree

Rather disagree


Rather agree

Totally agree



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Q21: Greece is playing an active role in the

resolution of the refugee crisis?

41%

12%

Q12: Turkey is playing an active role in

the resolution of the refugee crisis?

57%

29%

25,6%

23,1%

43,6%

7,7%

24,2%

30,3%

30,3%

6,1%

3,0%

8,1%

26,3%

48,5%

14,1%

1,0%

Totally disagree

Rather disagree


Rather agree

Totally agree


17,9%

17,9%

10,3%

28,2%

25,6%

21,2%

12,1%

6,1%

24,2%

30,3%

8,1%

17,2%

14,1%

43,4%

16,2%

Totally disagree

Rather disagree


Rather agree

Totally agree


THE REFUGEE CRISIS


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Q13: Turkey is a constructive player in the resolution of

the Cyprus issue?

52,3%

26,7%

THE CYPRUS ISSUE (1)

12,8%

17,9%

15,4%

33,3%

20,5%

12,1%

15,2%

9,1%

21,2%

36,4%

5,1%

20,2%

21,2%

35,4%

15,2%

Totally disagree

Rather disagree


Rather agree

Totally agree

Academics/Think-tanks Military Other3.5 per cent of the respondents stated

that they have no opinion.


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Q25: Greece is obstructing the resolution

of the Cyprus issue?

17,9%

17,9%

33,3%

30,8%

36,4%

57,6%

5,1%

23,2%

41,4%

28,3%

No

Rather No

Rather Yes

Yes



72,7%

24,4%

2.9 per cent of the respondents stated



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TURKISH ELITES GREEK ELITES

According to Turkish elites, the roles in the resolution of the Cyprus

issue are considered as follows,

72,7%

24,4%

Affirmative Negative

52,3%

17,4%

26,7%

Rather/Totally agreeNeither agree, nor disagreeRather/Totally disagree

Supportive Obstacle



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GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (1)

Q26: Do you agree with the rapprochement strategy Turkey is

implementing towards Greece since 1999?

89%

4,6%

TURKISH ELITES

2,6%

2,6%

17,9%

74,4%

9,1%

3,0%

63,6%

15,2%

1,0%

3,0%

1,0%

28,3%

63,6%

Totally disagree

Rather disagree


Rather agree

Totally agree

Academics/Think-tanks Military Other4.7 per cent of the respondents stated that

they have no opinion.


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Q26: Do you agree with the rapprochement strategy Greece is

implementing towards Turkey since 1999?

GREEK ELITES

3,8

11,5

11,5

53,8

[VALUE]%

31,1

28,9

11,1

20,0

[VALUE]%

16,0

8,0

60,0

[VALUE]%

5,0

7,5

20,0

40,0

[VALUE]%

10,0

13,3

16,7

26,7

[VALUE]%

3,8

9,4

5,7

43,4

[VALUE]%

Totally disagree

Rather disagree


Rather agree

Totally agree

Academic Businessman Journalist Politician Military officer Diplomat

63,5%

25,5%


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89,0% 1,7%

4,6%

Rather/Totally Agree


Rather/Totally Disagree


63,5%

11,0%

25,5%


Support for the rapprochement strategy


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Q27: Greece is steadily supporting Turkey’s

accession to the EU

25%

56,4%

GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (3) TURKISH ELITES

25,6%

30,8%

5,1%

35,9%

54,5%

27,3%

3,0%

3,0%

3,0%

30,3%

18,2%

21,2%

25,3%

2,0%

Totally disagree

Rather disagree


Rather agree

Totally agree

Academics/Think-tanks Military Other4.7 per cent of the respondents stated



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Greece should continue steadily supporting

Turkey’s accession to the EU?

11,5

38,5

11,5

23,1

15,4

31,1

28,9

15,6

13,3

12,0

24,0

12,0

28,0

24,0

5,0

15,0

22,5

25,0

32,5

26,7

16,7

3,3

36,7

16,7

5,7

11,3

11,3

32,1

39,6

Totally disagree

Rather disagree


Rather agree

Totally agree

Academic Businessman Journalist Politician Military Diplomat

51,6%

36,1%

GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (4) GREEK ELITES


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Support for the Turkey’s accession to the EU

25,0%

14,0% 56,4%

Rather/Totally AgreeNeither agree, nor disagreeRather/Totally Disagree

51,6%

12,3%

36,1%



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Q28: Greece’s membership in the EU

constitutes a threat for Turkey’s accession

50,6%

31,4%


15,4%

30,8%

12,8%

30,8%

7,7%

6,1%

9,1%

39,4%

39,4%

11,1%

23,2%

16,2%

32,3%

14,1%

Totally disagree

Rather disagree


Rather agree

Totally agree

Academics/Think-tanks Military Other4.1 per cent of the respondents



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Q17: Greece can influence international

politics because it is a member of the EU

and NATO

66,3%

8,7%

22,7%


Q15: Greece is an important EU

member state

47,7%

12,8%

36,0%



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Q29: Turkey can trust Greece

28%

40,7%

TURKISH ELITES

20,5%

17,9%

35,9%

20,5%

2,6%

48,5%

12,1%

12,1%

15,2%

3,0%

12,1%

23,2%

28,3%

28,3%

5,1%

Totally disagree

Rather disagree


Rather agree

Totally agree

Academics/Think-tanks Military Other4.7 per cent of the respondents



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15,4

61,5

19,2

3,8

71,1

22,2

6,7

28,0

44,0

20,0

8,0

27,5

40,0

22,5

7,5

2,5

40,0

10,0

40,0

10,0

9,4

30,2

32,1

22,6

5,7

Totally disagree

Rather disagree


Rather agree

Totally agree


Greece can trust Turkey

11,4 %

65,3 %


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Mutual trust

28,0%

26,7%

40,7%

Rather/Totally AgreeNeither agree, nor disagreeRather/Totally Disagree

11,4%

23,3%

65,3%



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Q30: An improvement in Greece’s economy

is in Turkey’s interest

79%

8%



15,4

26,9

30,8

26,9

35,6

40,0

17,8

4,4

2,2

12,0

28,0

36,0

24,0

17,5

52,5

10,0

16,7

16,7

10,0

46,7

10,0

13,2

13,2

18,9

37,7

17,0

Totally disagree

Rather disagree

Neither agree,nor disagree

Rather agree

Totally agree

Academic Businessman Journalist

Politician Military Diplomat

Turkey’s vast economic growth is in

Greece’s interest

39,4%

41%

2,6%

2,6%

2,6%

51,3%

38,5%

18,2%

12,1%

18,2%

24,2%

18,2%

0,0%

2,0%

8,1%

46,5%

41,4%

Totally disagree

Rather disagree


Rather agree

Totally agree



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Q31: Economic crisis in Greece

constitutes a threat for Turkey



Turkish direct investments to Greece

are a threat to Greek national interests

25%

14% 61%

Totally/rather agreeNeither agree, nor disagreeTotally/rather disagree

44,8%

26,2%

24,4%

Totally/Rather AgreeTotally/Rather DisagreeNeither agree, nor disagree

4.1 per cent of the

respondents stated

that they have no

opinion.


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Q32: How would you evaluate the current

state of Turkish-Greek relations?



How would you characterize the current

state of Greek-Turkish relations?

42,4%

41,9%

12,8%

Good/rather goodNeither good, nor badBad/rather bad

34,7

47

17,8

Good/rather goodNeither good nor badBad/rather bad

2.9 per cent of the

respondents stated

that they have no

opinion.


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Q33: How important is the resolution of the Cyprus issue for

the improvement of bilateral relations?



44%

27%

21%

6% 2%

Extremely important Very important

Rather important Little or not at all important

Not at all important

52,3% 32,6%

11,0% 1,2%

Extremely important Very importantRather important Not at all important

92,4% 95,9%

2.9 per cent of the respondents stated



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Q34: Do you think there would be any crisis between

Greece and Turkey within the next five years?


5,1%

51,3%

35,9%

7,7%

12,1%

42,4%

18,2%

18,2%

3,0%

5,1%

47,5%

34,3%

9,1%

1,0%

Improbable

Rather improbable

Likely

Very likely

Extremely likely


53,5%

3.5 per cent of

the respondents

stated that they

have no opinion.


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How likely do you consider any crisis between

Greece and Turkey within the next five years?

57,7

19,2

15,4

7,7

6,7

22,2

35,6

28,9

6,7

36,0

36,0

16,0

8,0

7,5

40,0

35,0

15,0

2,5

3,3

46,7

23,3

20,0

6,7

13,2

47,2

28,3

11,3

Improbable

Rather improbable

Likely

Very likely

Extremely likely


47%


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Q41: Which of the following is the most likely cause

for a ‘hot’ crisis?


7,7%

3,0%

11,1%

10,3%

15,2%

17,2%

5,1%

3,0%

17,9%

27,3%

19,2%

56,4%

39,4%

47,5%

Other

Military

Academics/Think-tanks

Refugee CyprusThrace Energy resources in the Eastern MediterraneanAegean (Delimitation, EEZ etc.)

6.4 per cent of the

respondents stated that they

have no opinion.


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Which of the following is the most likely cause for a

‘hot’ crisis?

38,5

31,1

28,0

30,0

26,7

24,5

7,7

16,0

6,7

3,8

3,8

11,1

8,0

7,5

6,7

3,8

50,0

57,8

48,0

62,5

60,0

67,9

Diplomat

Military

Politician

Journalist

Businessman

Academic

An internal crisis in Turkey Cyprus Thrace Aegean


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What is the most important problem between

Turkey and Greece?

Is there a problem between Turkey and

Greece?

Hayır,

sorun yoktur;

50,6

Evet,

sorun vardır;

49,4

53,5

49,4

46,5

50,6

2015

2013

Yes, there is a problem No, there are no problems

31,0

27,5

12,1

4,5

3,4

1,9

1,5

1,5

0,7

29,6

21,9

21,1

5,1

2,0

0,2

2,8

7,3

The Cyprus dispute

Border problems

Militarization of the Aegean islands

Historical problems

Political relations

Racial enmity

Economic problems

The Islands dispute

Problems regarding minorities

2015 2013

According to another survey on “the Public Perceptions of the

Turkish Foreign Policy” conducted by Kadir Has University in 2015


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How to explain the greater reticence of the Turkish Elites to respond to survey? Political climate in country? Need for different approach to reach out to them?

The two surveys were conducted at slightly different times (between 16 to 25 months difference) yet they are almost parallel. But no questions about the refugee issue in Greek Elite Survey; no distinction between Aegean and Eastern Med in Greek Survey, reflecting the Greek approach; no questions regarding who is constructive or not regarding Cyprus?

SOME CONCLUSIONS – FOOD FOR THOUGHT (1)


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Low levels of trust

Strong support for the rapprochement process

Overwhelming importance of Cyprus issue for both sides for the resolution of bilateral issues

Potential of the energy issue as an area of cooperation (according to Turkish Elites) (Q. 11, 22)

Potential of refugee crisis to be a disruptive factor in Turkish-Greek relations (according to Turkish Elites)

Potential of internal crisis in Turkey to be a disruptive factor in Greek-Turkish relations (according to Greek Elites)

SOME CONCLUSIONS – FOOD FOR THOUGHT (2)


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Suspicion among Turkish Elites regarding Greek membership in EU and Greek support to Turkey’s accession bid (Q. 27-28)

In fact, almost direct correlation between the perceived role of Greece in the EU (Q.14-20) and its lack of alternatives and Turkey’s need for a greater international role and distancing from West (Q. 6-10)

Also, regarding the resolution of the Cyprus issue, Turkish Elites perceive Turkey to be a constructive player (52,3%) while Greece is not (72,7%).

SOME CONCLUSION – FOOD FOR THOUGHT (3)


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If there were to be a crisis between the two countries, the main reasons for Turkish Elites are (similar to Greek Elites):

→ The Aegean disputes (delimitation, EEZ etc.)

→ Newly discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean

→ The Cyprus issue

Both Turkish and Greek consider that Greek-Turkish relations are predominantly neither good, nor bad (41.9% - 47%) while a minority on both sides consider them to be bad or rather bad (12.8% - 17.8%)

This encapsulates the Cold Peace the two countries have been experiencing since 1999 – not rapprochement, some potential interdependence, unwillingness or inability to resolve outstanding issues, resolution of Cyprus as trigger.

SOME CONCLUSION – FOOD FOR THOUGHT (4)


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Thank you…

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