surveys of consumers data file documentation

SURVEYS OF CONSUMERS

DATA FILE DOCUMENTATION

Initiated in 1946, the Surveys of Consumers provide regular assessments of consumerattitudes and expectations, and are used to evaluate economic trends and prospects. Thesurveys are designed to explore why changes in consumer attitudes and expectations occur, andhow these changes influence consumer spending and saving decisions.

This book documents the PC data files available for the monthly Surveys of Consumers.The data files are designed for use on Windows compatible PCs. All data files are ASCII text files.

Richard T. Curtin, Director ! Surveys of Consumers ! P.O. Box 1248 ! Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106Phone: (734) 763-5224 ! Fax: (734) 764-3488

© The University of Michigan, 1999. All rights reserved.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE

1. Data File Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

! File Format . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

! File Names . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

! Interpolated Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

! File Choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

! Documentation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

! Complete Data File . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

! Area Summary Files . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

! Individual Question Files . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

2. Exhibit A: Question Wording and Reference Numbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

3. Exhibit B: Complete Data File . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

4. Exhibit C: Summary File for the Index of Consumer Sentiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

5. Exhibit D: Summary File for Personal Finances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

6. Exhibit E: Summary File for General Business Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

7. Exhibit F: Summary File for Unemployment, Price,and Interest Rate Expectations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

8. Exhibit G: Summary File for Buying Conditions for Homes, Vehicles,and Household Durables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18

9. Sample Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

! Confidence Intervals for Estimated Percentages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

! Confidence Intervals for Estimated Percentages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

1

DATA FILE STRUCTURE

This book documents the PC data files available for the Surveys of Consumers.The data files are designed for use on Windows compatible PCs. All data files are writtenas ASCII text files. Each monthly data file contains the time series of observations fromJanuary 1978 to present; each quarterly file contains data from the first quarter of 1960 topresent. Each line in the data files represent either one monthly or one quarterlyobservation. The data contained in these PC files are identical to the figures reported inthe monthly data books. These data books can also be used as easy reference forquestion wording and variable definitions.

File Format

There are two different file formats: blank and comma delimited. Monthly files haveeither a *.MBL (Monthly BLank) or a *.MCO (Monthly COmma) extension, and quarterlyfiles have a *.QBL (Quarterly BLank) or a *.QCO (Quarterly COmma) extension. Betweenthese two types, it should be possible for most software programs to input the data sets.

MONTHLY QUARTERLY MONTHLY QUARTERLYBLANK DELIMITED BLANK DELIMITED COMMA DELIMITED COMMA DELIMITED

*.MBL *.QBL *.MCO *.QCO

File Names

To facilitate meeting the diverse needs of users, three versions of the basic datafiles are provided: Complete Data File, Area Summary Files, and Individual Question Files-- described below. The three versions differ only in the number of variables included inthe data arrays. All the data files have the same number of lines, one line per monthstarting in January 1978, or for the quarterly files, one line per quarter since the firstquarter of 1960.

Each data file name is made up of a 7 or 8 character acronym of the question name.For the individual question files, the acronym includes the table number where thequestion can be found in the data books for easy referencing. Below is an example of thefile name format. The data file name begins with an abbreviated form of the questionname (notated as qnames below) and the table number (notated as ## below) with the fourpossible extensions (see File Format above). For example, the data file name for Table4: Current Financial Situation Compared to a Year Ago, would be PERAGO04.* whereqnames = PERAGO and ## = 04 (i.e. Table 4, the table where the question can be foundin the data books).

2

The area summary files (described in further detail below) are distinguished by theuse of SUM in the file name with an abbreviated form of the area name (notated as areabelow) with the four possible extensions. An example of a data file name would be:MKTSUM.* where the MKT is an acronym for buying conditions (or market) questions andthe SUM refers to the file version (i.e. area summary file).

The complete data file is simply named, ICSALL.*. A complete listing of the filenames can be found in the following sections.

MONTHLY MONTHLY QUARTERLY QUARTERLYBLANK DELIMITED COMMA DELIMITED BLANK DELIMITED COMMA DELIMITED

Individual Question Files qnames##.MBL qnames##.MCO qnames##.QBL qnames##.QCO

Area Summary Files areaSUM.MBL areaSUM.MCO areaSUM.QBL areaSUM.QCO

Complete Data File ICSALL.MBL ICSALL.MCO ICSALL.QBL ICSALL.QCO

Interpolated Data

Interpolated values are substituted for missing data whenever practical. Theinterpolated values allow for easier graphing of time-series data. When an entire line (i.e.one survey month or quarter) is made up of interpolated values, the number of cases isalways set to zero. Please refer to your data books for actual survey results.

File Choice

In general, three criteria are important in the choice among the different fileversions. First, the smallest file, or combination of files, that include all the variablesneeded for analysis will minimize the required data storage space. Second, since somesoftware programs limit the number of variables which can be read from a single line, theuse of multiple data files may be required. And lastly, the user must decide which fileformat (blank or comma delimited) is most suitable for their software programs. Most userswill probably never require the use of all the data files, as this would needlessly replicateeach data series.

Documentation

Exhibit A gives a complete listing of the wording of all questions. The question andcode numbers listed in Exhibit A are used in the subsequent exhibits/tables to identify thespecific question and response code which corresponds to each of the time seriesvariables.

3

Complete Data File

The file ICSALL.* contains all of the data series for the monthly surveys. Thevariables included in this file are listed in Exhibit B, along with reference codes to locatethe exact question wording and response codes. The column labeled "Var#" gives theorder of the variables written on each line of the data file. If your hardware and softwarewill accommodate the larger size of this file, you can input all of the data directly from thisone file.

COMPLETE DATA FILE

EXHIBIT DESCRIPTION FILE NAME

B All Survey Questions ICSALL.*

Area Summary Files

The second set of files gives the survey results grouped by topic areas: the Indexof Consumer Sentiment and its components (ICSSUM.*), personal finances (PERSUM.*),general business conditions (BUS1SUM.*), unemployment, price, and interest rateexpectations (BUS2SUM.*), and buying conditions (MKTSUM.*). These data files aredocumented in Exhibits C through G.

One of these files, ICSSUM.* (detailed in Exhibit C), contains summary measuresfor all of the questions regularly included in the monthly surveys. The values included inthis file are the same as those displayed in the charts which accompany the monthlyreports. This file should meet most users needs. More detailed results on any subjectareas can be added by using this file in combination with the other summary files or theindividual question files.

AREA SUMMARY FILES

EXHIBIT DESCRIPTION FILE NAME

C Index of Consumer Sentiment and its Components ICSSUM.*

D Personal Finances PERSUM.*

E General Business Conditions BUS1SUM.*

F Unemployment, Price, and Interest Rate Expectations BUS2SUM.*

G Buying Conditions MKTSUM.*

4

Individual Question Files

In the third group, the results for each individual question are contained in aseparate file. These files represent copies of the tables, and contain the identicalinformation. Each data line begins with the survey month or quarter and the survey year,and ends with the total, case count, and relative score (the proportion giving favorableresponses minus the portion giving unfavorable responses plus 100) if applicable. Thecontents of these files are the same as in Tables 1-26 in the monthly data books.

INDIVIDUAL QUESTION FILES

TABLE DESCRIPTION FILE NAME

1 Index of Consumer Sentiment ICSALL01.*

2 Index of Consumer Sentiment within Regions and Age Subgroups ICSREG02.*

3 Components of the Index of Consumer Sentiment ICSCOM03.*

4 Current Financial Situation Compared to a Year Ago PERAGO04.*

5 Selected Reasons for Opinions About Personal Financial Situation PERRSN05.*

6 Expected Change in Financial Situation PEREXP06.*

7 Trend in Personal Financial Situation PERTRD07.*

8 Expected Family Income Change During the Next 12 Months INCEXP08.*

9 Expected Change in Real Family Income RELINC09.*

10 News Heard of Recent Changes in Business Conditions NEWHRD10.*

11 Selected Items of News Heard of Recent Changes in Business Conditions NEWRSN11.*

12 Current Business Conditions Compared to a Year Ago BUSAGO12.*

13 Expected Change in Business Conditions in a Year BUSEXP13.*

14 Trend in Past and Expected Changes in Business Conditions BUSTRD14.*

15 Business Conditions Expected During the Next 12 Months 12MBUS15.*

16 Business Conditions Expected During the Next 5 Years 5YRBUS16.*

17 Expected Change in Unemployment UEMEXP17.*

18 Expected Change in Interest Rates RATEXP18.*

19 Expected Change in Prices During the Next 12 Months PRIEXP19.*

20 Opinions About the Government's Economic Policy GOVPOL20.*

21 Buying Conditions for Large Household Goods DURMKT21.*

22 Selected Reasons About Buying Conditions for Large Household Goods DURRSN22.*

23 Buying Conditions for Houses HOMMKT23.*

24 Selected Reasons for Opinions About Buying Conditions for Houses HOMRSN24.*

25 Buying Conditions for Cars CARMKT25.*

26 Selected Reasons for Opinions About Buying Conditions for Cars CARRSN26.*

5

EXHIBIT A

QUESTION WORDING AND REFERENCE NUMBERS

QUESTION# CODE# QUESTION WORDING

1 "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these

1 Better Off2 Same3 Worse Off4 DK; NA

days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better offor worse off financially than you were a year ago?"

2 "Why do you say so?"

5 Higher income6 Lower income7 Higher prices

3 "Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your

8 Better Off9 Same

10 Worse Off11 DK; NA

family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just aboutthe same as now?"

1,3 Trend in Personal Financial Situation:

12 Better off financially than a year ago/Better off a year from now13 Better/Same or Same/Better14 Same/Same15 Worse/Same or Same/Worse16 Worse/Worse17 Worse/Better or Better/Worse18 DK; NA

4 "During the next 12 months, do you expect your (family) income to be

19 Expect Increase: 1-4%20 Expect Increase: 5%21 Expect Increase: 6-9%22 Expect Increase: 10-24%23 Expect Increase: 25% or more24 Expect Increase: DK how much up25 Expect Same26 Expect Down27 DK; NA

higher or lower than during the past year?" and "By about what percentdo you expect your (family) income to increase during the next 12months?"

EXHIBIT A



6

5 "How about the next year or two--do you expect that your (family) income

28 Income will go up more than prices29 Income will go up same as prices30 Prices will go up more than income31 DK; NA

will go up more than prices will go up, about the same, or less than priceswill go up?"

6 "During the last few months, have you heard of any favorable or

32 Heard Favorable News33 Heard Unfavorable News34 No mentions

unfavorable changes in business conditions?" and "What did you hear?"

7 "What did you hear?"

35 Favorable News: Government; Elections36 Favorable News: Employment37 Favorable News: Higher Consumer Demand38 Favorable News: Lower Prices39 Favorable News: Easier Credit40 Favorable News: Stock Market41 Favorable News: Trade Deficit

42 Unfavorable News: Government; Elections43 Unfavorable News: Unemployment44 Unfavorable News: Lower Consumer Demand45 Unfavorable News: Higher Prices46 Unfavorable News: Tighter Credit47 Unfavorable News: Energy Crisis48 Unfavorable News: Stock Market49 Unfavorable News: Trade Deficit

8 "Would you say that at the present time business conditions are better or

50 Better Now51 Same52 Worse Now53 DK; NA

worse than they were a year ago?"

9 "And how about a year from now, do you expect that in the country as a

54 Better55 Same56 Worse57 DK; NA

whole business conditions will be better, or worse than they are atpresent, or just about the same?"

EXHIBIT A



7

8,9 Trend in Past and Expected Changes in Business Conditions:

58 Better than a year ago/Better a year from now59 Better/Same or Same/Better60 Same/Same61 Worse/Same or Same/Worse62 Worse/Worse63 Worse/Better or Better/Worse64 DK; NA

10 "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you

65 Good Times66 Uncertain; Good & Bad67 Bad Times68 Don't Know69 Not Ascertained

think that during the next 12 months we'll have good times financially, orbad times or what?"

11 "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country

70 Good Times71 Uncertain; Good & Bad72 Bad Times73 Not Ascertained

as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next 5 years orso, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment ordepression, or what?"

12 "How about people out of work during the coming 12 months--do you

7475 Less Unemployment76 Same Unemployment77 More Unemployment

think that there will be more unemployment than now, about the same, orless?"

DK; NA

13 "No one can say for sure, but what do you think will happen to interest

78 Go Up79 Stay the Same80 Go Down81 DK; NA

rates for borrowing money during the next 12 months--will they go up,stay the same, or go down?"

EXHIBIT A



8

14 "During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up,

82 Prices will stay the same or go down83 Prices will go up by: 1-2%84 Prices will go up by: 3-4%85 Prices will go up by: 5%86 Prices will go up by: 6-9%87 Prices will go up by: 10-14%88 Prices will go up by: 15% or more89 Prices will go up by: DK how much up90 DK; NA

or go down, or stay where they are now?" and "By about what percent doyou expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?"

15 "As to the economic policy of the government--I mean steps taken to fight

91 Good Job92 Only Fair93 Poor Job94 DK; NA

inflation or unemployment--would you say the government is doing agood job, only fair, or a poor job?"

16 "About the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a

95 Good Time to Buy96 Uncertain; Depends97 Bad Time to Buy

refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, doyou think now is a good or a bad time for people to buy major householditems?"


98 Prices are low; good buys available99 Prices won't come down; are going higher

100 Interest rates are low; credit is easy101 Borrow-in-advance of rising interest rates102 Times are good; prosperity

103 Prices are high104 Interest rates are high; credit is tight105 Times are bad; can't afford to buy106 Bad times ahead; uncertain future

Good Time to Buy:

Bad Time to Buy:

EXHIBIT A



9

18 "Generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or a bad time to

107 Good Time to Buy108 Uncertain; Depends109 Bad Time to Buy

buy a house?"


110 Prices are low; good buys available111 Prices won't come down; are going higher112 Interest rates are low; credit is easy113 Borrow-in-advance of rising interest rates114 Good investment115 Times are good; prosperity

116 Prices are high117 Interest rates are high; credit is tight118 Times are bad; can't afford to buy119 Bad times ahead; uncertain future

Good Time to Buy:

Bad Time to Buy:

20 "Speaking now of the automobile market--do you think the next 12

120 Good Time to Buy121 Uncertain122 Bad Time to Buy

months or so will be a good time or a bad time to buy a car?"


123 Prices are low; good buys available124 Prices won't come down; are going higher125 Interest rates are low; credit is easy126 Borrow-in-advance of rising interest rates127 Times are good; prosperity128 New fuel efficient models

129 Prices are high130 Interest rates are high; credit is tight131 Times are bad; can't afford to buy132 Bad times ahead; uncertain future133 Price of gas; shortages134 Poor selection; poor quality

Good Time to Buy:

Bad Time to Buy:

10

EXHIBIT B

COMPLETE DATA FILE

Documentation Location Contents of File: ICSALL

QUES# CODE# TABLE# VAR# DESCRIPTION

1 Survey date: year and month (YYYYMM)2 Survey month (MM)3 Survey year (YYYY)4 Number of cases

1 5 Index: Total sample2 6 Index: North East region2 7 Index: North Central region2 8 Index: Southern region2 9 Index: Western region2 10 Index: 18-34 age group2 11 Index: 35-54 age group2 12 Index: 55+ age group

1 4 13 Personal finances compared to year ago: relative3 6 14 Expected change in personal finances: relative

11 15 15 12 Month outlook for economy: relative12 16 16 Five year outlook for the economy: relative16 21 17 Buying conditions for durables: relative

3 18 Index: Current conditions component3 19 Index: Expected conditions component

1 1 4 20 Current personal financial situation: % better than year ago2 21 Current personal financial situation: % same as year ago3 22 Current personal financial situation: % worse than year ago4 23 Current personal financial situation: % DK; NA

24 Current personal financial situation: Relative

2 5 5 25 Reason financial situation better: % higher income6 26 Reason financial situation worse: % lower income7 27 Reason financial situation worse: % higher prices

3 8 6 28 Expected change financial situation: % better9 29 Expected change financial situation: % same

10 30 Expected change financial situation: % worse11 31 Expected change financial situation: % DK; NA

32 Expected change financial situation: Relative

1,3 12 7 33 Trend personal financial situation: % continuous increase13 34 Trend personal financial situation: % intermittent increase14 35 Trend personal financial situation: % no change15 36 Trend personal financial situation: % intermittent decline16 37 Trend personal financial situation: % continuous decline17 38 Trend personal financial situation: % mixed change18 39 Trend personal financial situation: % DK; NA

40 Trend personal financial situation: Relative

EXHIBIT B

COMPLETE DATA FILE



11

4 19 8 41 % Expected income increase: 1-4%20 42 % Expected income increase: 5%21 43 % Expected income increase: 6-9%22 44 % Expected income increase: 10-24%23 45 % Expected income increase: 25% or more24 46 % Expected income increase: Don't know how much up25 47 % Expected income: Same26 48 % Expected income: Decrease27 49 % Expected income: DK; NA

50 Expected income increase: Median51 Expected income increase: Relative

5 28 9 52 % Expect income to go up more than prices29 53 % Expect income to go up same as prices30 54 % Expect prices to go up more than income31 55 % Expect income or prices up more: DK; NA

56 Expect income or prices up more: Relative

6 32 10 57 News heard: % favorable33 58 News heard: % unfavorable34 59 News heard: % no mention

60 News heard: Relative

7 35 11 61 Favorable news heard: % about government; elections36 62 Favorable news heard: % about employment37 63 Favorable news heard: % about higher consumer demand38 64 Favorable news heard: % about low prices39 65 Favorable news heard: % about easy credit40 66 Favorable news heard: % about stock market41 67 Favorable news heard: % about trade deficit42 68 Unfavorable news heard: % about government; elections43 69 Unfavorable news heard: % about unemployment44 70 Unfavorable news heard: % about lower consumer demand45 71 Unfavorable news heard: % about high prices46 72 Unfavorable news heard: % about tight credit47 73 Unfavorable news heard: % about energy crisis48 74 Unfavorable news heard: % about stock market49 75 Unfavorable news heard: % about trade deficit

8 50 12 76 Current business conditions: % better51 77 Current business conditions: % the same52 78 Current business conditions: % worse53 79 Current business conditions: % DK; NA

80 Current business conditions: Relative

9 54 13 81 Expected change business conditions: % better55 82 Expected change business conditions: % the same56 83 Expected change business conditions: % worse57 84 Expected change business conditions: % DK; NA

85 Expected change business conditions: Relative

EXHIBIT B

COMPLETE DATA FILE



12

8,9 58 14 86 Trend business conditions: % continuous increase59 87 Trend business conditions: % intermittent increase60 88 Trend business conditions: % no change61 89 Trend business conditions: % intermittent decline62 90 Trend business conditions: % continuous decline63 91 Trend business conditions: % mixed change64 92 Trend business conditions: % DK; NA

93 Trend business conditions: Relative

10 65 15 94 12-month business expectations: % good times66 95 12-month business expectations: % uncertain; good/bad67 96 12-month business expectations: % bad times68 97 12-month business expectations: % DK69 98 12-month business expectations: % NA

99 12-month business expectations: Relative

11 70 16 100 5-year business expectations: % good times71 101 5-year business expectations: % uncertain72 102 5-year business expectations: % bad times73 103 5-year business expectations: % NA

104 5-year business expectations: Relative

12 74 17 105 Unemployment expectations: % less75 106 Unemployment expectations: % same76 107 Unemployment expectations: % more77 108 Unemployment expectations: % DK; NA

109 Unemployment expectations: Relative

13 78 18 110 Interest rate expectations: % up79 111 Interest rate expectations: % same80 112 Interest rate expectations: % down81 113 Interest rate expectations: % DK; NA

114 Interest rate expectations: Relative

14 82 19 115 % Prices expected to stay the same or go down83 116 % Prices expected to increase: 1-2%84 117 % Prices expected to increase: 3-4%85 118 % Prices expected to increase: 5%86 119 % Prices expected to increase: 6-9%87 120 % Prices expected to increase: 10-14%88 121 % Prices expected to increase: 15% or more89 122 % Prices expected to increase: Don't know how much up90 123 % Prices expected to change: DK; NA

124 Expect prices to increase: Mean125 Expect prices to increase: Variance

15 91 20 126 Government economic policy: % good92 127 Government economic policy: % fair93 128 Government economic policy: % poor94 129 Government economic policy: % DK; NA

130 Government economic policy: Relative

EXHIBIT B

COMPLETE DATA FILE



13

16 95 21 131 Buying conditions for durables: % good96 132 Buying conditions for durables: % uncertain; depends97 133 Buying conditions for durables: % bad

134 Buying conditions for durables: Relative

17 98 22 135 Reasons good time to buy durables: % low prices99 136 Reasons good time to buy durables: % prices will increase

100 137 Reasons good time to buy durables: % low interest rates101 138 Reasons good time to buy durables: % rising interest rates102 139 Reasons good time to buy durables: % times good103 140 Reasons bad time to buy durables: % high prices104 141 Reasons bad time to buy durables: % high interest rates105 142 Reasons bad time to buy durables: % can't afford106 143 Reasons bad time to buy durables: % bad times ahead

18 107 23 144 Buying conditions for homes: % good108 145 Buying conditions for homes: % uncertain109 146 Buying conditions for homes: % bad

147 Buying conditions for homes: Relative

19 110 24 148 Reason good time to buy a house: % low prices111 149 Reason good time to buy a house: % prices will increase112 150 Reason good time to buy a house: % low interest rates113 151 Reason good time to buy a house: % rising interest rates114 152 Reason good time to buy a house: % good investment115 153 Reason good time to buy a house: % times good116 154 Reason bad time to buy a house: % high prices117 155 Reason bad time to buy a house: % high interest rates118 156 Reason bad time to buy a house: % can't afford119 157 Reason bad time to buy a house: % bad times ahead

20 120 25 158 Buying conditions for cars: % good121 159 Buying conditions for cars: % uncertain122 160 Buying conditions for cars: % bad

161 Buying conditions for cars: Relative

21 123 26 162 Reason good time to buy a car: % low prices124 163 Reason good time to buy a car: % prices will increase125 164 Reason good time to buy a car: % low interest rates126 165 Reason good time to buy a car: % rising interest rates127 166 Reason good time to buy a car: % times good128 167 Reason good time to buy a car: % fuel efficiency129 168 Reason bad time to buy a car: % high prices130 169 Reason bad time to buy a car: % high interest rates131 170 Reason bad time to buy a car: % can't afford132 171 Reason bad time to buy a car: % bad times ahead133 172 Reason bad time to buy a car: % gas prices, shortages134 173 Reason bad time to buy a car: % poor selection

14

EXHIBIT C

SUMMARY FILE FOR THE INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT

Documentation Location Contents of File: ICSSUM

QUES# TABLE# VAR# DESCRIPTION


1 5 Index: Total sample2 6 Index: North East region2 7 Index: North Central region2 8 Index: Southern region2 9 Index: Western region2 10 Index: 18-34 age group2 11 Index: 35-54 age group2 12 Index: 55+ age group

3 13 Index: Current conditions component3 14 Index: Expected conditions component

1 4 15 Current personal financial situation: Relative3 6 16 Expected change financial situation: Relative

1,3 7 17 Trend personal financial situation: Relative4 8 18 Expected income increase: Median4 8 19 Expected income increase: Relative5 9 20 Expect income or prices up more: Relative6 10 21 News heard: Relative8 12 22 Current business conditions: Relative9 13 23 Expected change business conditions: Relative

8,9 14 24 Trend business conditions: Relative10 15 25 12-month business expectations: Relative11 16 26 5-year business expectations: Relative12 17 27 Unemployment expectations: Relative13 18 28 Interest rate expectations: Relative14 19 29 Expected price increase: Mean14 19 30 Expected price increase: Variance15 20 31 Government economic policy: Relative16 21 32 Buying conditions for durables: Relative18 23 33 Buying conditions for homes: Relative20 25 34 Buying conditions for cars: Relative

15

EXHIBIT D

SUMMARY FILE FOR PERSONAL FINANCES

Documentation Location Contents of File: PERSUM



1 1 4 5 Current personal financial situation: % better than year ago2 6 Current personal financial situation: % same as year ago3 7 Current personal financial situation: % worse than year ago4 8 Current personal financial situation: % DK; NA

2 5 5 9 Reason financial situation better: % higher income6 10 Reason financial situation worse: % lower income7 11 Reason financial situation worse: % higher prices

3 8 6 12 Expected change financial situation: % better9 13 Expected change financial situation: % same

10 14 Expected change financial situation: % worse11 15 Expected change financial situation: % DK; NA

1,3 12 7 16 Trend personal financial situation: % continuous increase13 17 Trend personal financial situation: % intermittent increase14 18 Trend personal financial situation: % no change15 19 Trend personal financial situation: % intermittent decline16 20 Trend personal financial situation: % continuous decline17 21 Trend personal financial situation: % mixed change18 22 Trend personal financial situation: % DK; NA

4 19 8 23 % Expected income increase: 1-4%20 24 % Expected income increase: 5%21 25 % Expected income increase: 6-9%22 26 % Expected income increase: 10-24%23 27 % Expected income increase: 25% or more24 28 % Expected income increase: Don't know how much up25 29 % Expected income: Same26 30 % Expected income: Decrease27 31 % Expected income: DK; NA28 32 Expected income increase: Median29 33 Expected income increase: Relative

5 30 9 34 % Expect income to go up more than prices31 35 % Expect income to go up same as prices32 36 % Expect prices to go up more than income33 37 % Expect income or prices up more: DK; NA

16

EXHIBIT E

SUMMARY FILE FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS

Documentation Location Contents of File: BUS1SUM



6 32 10 5 News heard: % favorable33 6 News heard: % unfavorable34 7 News heard: % no mention

7 35 11 8 Favorable news heard: % about government; elections36 9 Favorable news heard: % about employment37 10 Favorable news heard: % about higher consumer demand38 11 Favorable news heard: % about low prices39 12 Favorable news heard: % about easy credit40 13 Favorable news heard: % about stock market41 14 Favorable news heard: % about trade deficit42 15 Unfavorable news heard: % about government; elections43 16 Unfavorable news heard: % about unemployment44 17 Unfavorable news heard: % about lower consumer demand45 18 Unfavorable news heard: % about high prices46 19 Unfavorable news heard: % about tight credit47 20 Unfavorable news heard: % about energy crisis48 21 Unfavorable news heard: % about stock market49 22 Unfavorable news heard: % about trade deficit

8 50 12 23 Current business conditions: % better51 24 Current business conditions: % the same52 25 Current business conditions: % worse53 26 Current business conditions: % DK; NA

9 54 13 27 Expected change business conditions: % better55 28 Expected change business conditions: % the same56 29 Expected change business conditions: % worse57 30 Expected change business conditions: % DK; NA

8,9 58 14 31 Trend business conditions: % continuous increase59 32 Trend business conditions: % intermittent increase60 33 Trend business conditions: % no change61 34 Trend business conditions: % intermittent decline62 35 Trend business conditions: % continuous decline63 36 Trend business conditions: % mixed change64 37 Trend business conditions: % DK; NA

10 65 15 38 12-month business expectations: % good times66 39 12-month business expectations: % uncertain; good/bad67 40 12-month business expectations: % bad times68 41 12-month business expectations: % DK69 42 12-month business expectations: % NA

11 70 16 43 5-year business expectations: % good times71 44 5-year business expectations: % uncertain72 45 5-year business expectations: % bad times73 46 5-year business expectations: % NA

17

EXHIBIT F

SUMMARY FILE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT, PRICE, ANDINTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS

Documentation Location Contents of File: BUS2SUM



12 74 17 5 Unemployment expectations: % less75 6 Unemployment expectations: % same76 7 Unemployment expectations: % more77 8 Unemployment expectations: % DK; NA

13 78 18 9 Interest rate expectations: % up79 10 Interest rate expectations: % same80 11 Interest rate expectations: % down81 12 Interest rate expectations: % DK; NA

14 82 19 13 % Prices expected to stay the same or go down83 14 % Prices expected to increase: 1-2%84 15 % Prices expected to increase: 3-4%85 16 % Prices expected to increase: 5%86 17 % Prices expected to increase: 6-9%87 18 % Prices expected to increase: 10-14%88 19 % Prices expected to increase: 15% or more89 20 % Prices expected to increase: Don't know how much up90 21 % Prices expected to change: DK; NA

15 91 20 22 Government economic policy: % good92 23 Government economic policy: % fair93 24 Government economic policy: % poor94 25 Government economic policy: % DK; NA

18

EXHIBIT G

SUMMARY FILE FOR BUYING CONDITIONS FOR HOMES, VEHICLES,AND HOUSEHOLD DURABLES

Documentation Location Contents of File: MKTSUM



16 95 21 5 Buying conditions for durables: % good96 6 Buying conditions for durables: % uncertain; depends97 7 Buying conditions for durables: % bad

17 98 22 8 Reasons good time to buy durables: % low prices99 9 Reasons good time to buy durables: % prices will increase

100 10 Reasons good time to buy durables: % low interest rates101 11 Reasons good time to buy durables: % rising interest rates102 12 Reasons good time to buy durables: % times good103 13 Reasons bad time to buy durables: % high prices104 14 Reasons bad time to buy durables: % high interest rates105 15 Reasons bad time to buy durables: % can't afford106 16 Reasons bad time to buy durables: % bad times ahead

18 107 23 17 Buying conditions for homes: % good108 18 Buying conditions for homes: % uncertain109 19 Buying conditions for homes: % bad

19 110 24 20 Reason good time to buy a house: % low prices111 21 Reason good time to buy a house: % prices will increase112 22 Reason good time to buy a house: % low interest rates113 23 Reason good time to buy a house: % rising interest rates114 24 Reason good time to buy a house: % good investment115 25 Reason good time to buy a house: % times good116 26 Reason bad time to buy a house: % high prices117 27 Reason bad time to buy a house: % high interest rates118 28 Reason bad time to buy a house: % can't afford119 29 Reason bad time to buy a house: % bad times ahead

20 120 25 30 Buying conditions for cars: % good121 31 Buying conditions for cars: % uncertain122 32 Buying conditions for cars: % bad

21 123 26 33 Reason good time to buy a car: % low prices124 34 Reason good time to buy a car: % prices will increase125 35 Reason good time to buy a car: % low interest rates126 36 Reason good time to buy a car: % rising interest rates127 37 Reason good time to buy a car: % times good128 38 Reason good time to buy a car: % fuel efficiency129 39 Reason bad time to buy a car: % high prices130 40 Reason bad time to buy a car: % high interest rates131 41 Reason bad time to buy a car: % can't afford132 42 Reason bad time to buy a car: % bad times ahead133 43 Reason bad time to buy a car: % gas prices, shortages134 44 Reason bad time to buy a car: % poor selection

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SAMPLE DESIGN

The samples for the monthly Surveys of Consumers are designed to be representative ofall households in the United States, excluding Alaska and Hawaii. Within each household, oneadult member is designated as the respondent. All households, and all adults within thosehouseholds, are given an equal chance of being selected. No substitutions are allowed in theselection of households or respondents, which are strictly controlled under the equal probabilitysample design. The sample selection, telephone interviewing, and coding of survey responses,are conducted at the Survey Research Center by its professional staff.

All surveys are subject to sampling error because not all members of the population areinterviewed. Most results on the total sample of this monthly survey will differ by no more than5 percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by using the samemethods on the entire population.

While every effort is made to accurately measure consumer attitudes and expectations,factors other than sampling may also affect the accuracy of these (and other) findings. Thesefactors may include effects of the question wording, the ability of respondents to articulateanswers and opinions, refusal to participate in the survey, and incomplete coverage of thepopulation. There are no standard measures of these effects, but their presence should beacknowledged when using these and all other survey data. While measurement effects arepresent in all surveys, a noted advantage of time series data is that the non-sampling influencesremain relatively constant over samples and thus their impact on estimates of change over timeare minimized.

Table A1 provides the necessary information to construct the 95% confidence interval forestimated percentages. To find the appropriate values, cross reference the estimated percentagefigure with the sample size. The two values given in the table form the lower and upper boundsof the 95% confidence interval--that is, there are 95 chance in 100 that the true percentage lieswithin the range defined by the observed percent minus the lower bound to the observed percentplus the upper bound. For percents or sample sizes not listed in Table A1 (and subsequenttables), approximate confidence intervals can be obtained by interpolation.

Table A2 provides the necessary information to determine whether differences betweentwo estimated percents differ at the 95% level of significance. To use Table A2, first locate thesub table which best corresponds to the range of the two percentage estimates that are beingcompared. Note that the sub tables are organized according to the approximate value of the twoindependent subclass percentages, not according to the value of the difference of percentages.Having located the appropriate part of the table, the recommended sampling error allowance isobtained by cross-referencing the sample size values (n and n ) for the two percentage estimates1 2that are being compared. If the observed difference between the two percentage figures is largerthan the figure listed in Table A2 then the difference is significant at the 95% confidence level.

TABLE A1CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR ESTIMATED PERCENTAGES

SAMPLE SIZE

PERCENT 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 6000

1% - 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2+ 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3

5% - 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6+ 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.6

10% - 2.5 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8+ 3.2 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.8

20% - 3.5 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.1+ 4.0 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.1

30% - 4.1 3.0 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.2+ 4.5 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.3

40% - 4.5 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.3+ 4.7 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.3

50% - 4.7 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.4+ 4.7 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.4

60% - 4.7 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.3+ 4.5 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.3

70% - 4.5 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.3+ 4.1 3.0 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.2

80% - 4.0 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.1+ 3.5 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.1

90% - 3.2 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.8+ 2.5 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8

95% - 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.6+ 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6

99% - 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3+ 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2

NOTE: The figures in this table, when subtracted from or added to the observed percentage forms the 95 percent confidence interval. Interpolate for observed percentages other than those listed in the table.

22

TABLE A2

RECOMMENDED ALLOWANCE FOR SAMPLING ERROR OF DIFFERENCES

n2n1 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 6000

a. For comparing percentage estimates near 1% or 99%500 1.3

1000 1.1 0.91500 1.1 0.9 0.82000 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.72500 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.63000 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.56000 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4

b. For comparing percentage estimates near 5% or 95%500 2.9

1000 2.5 2.01500 2.4 1.9 1.72000 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.42500 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.33000 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.26000 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8

c. For comparing percentage estimates near 10% or 90%500 4.0

1000 3.5 2.81500 3.3 2.6 2.32000 3.2 2.4 2.2 2.02500 3.1 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.83000 3.0 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.66000 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2

d. For comparing percentage estimates near 15% or 85%500 4.7

1000 4.1 3.41500 3.9 3.1 2.72000 3.8 2.9 2.6 2.42500 3.7 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.13000 3.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.96000 3.5 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4

23

TABLE A2


n2n1 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 6000

e. For comparing percentage estimates near 20% or 80%500 5.3

1000 4.6 3.81500 4.3 3.4 3.12000 4.2 3.3 2.9 2.72500 4.1 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.43000 4.1 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.26000 3.9 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.5

f. For comparing percentage estimates near 25% or 75%500 5.8

1000 5.0 4.11500 4.7 3.7 3.32000 4.6 3.5 3.1 2.92500 4.5 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.63000 4.4 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.36000 4.2 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7

g. For comparing percentage estimates near 30% or 70%500 6.1

1000 5.3 4.31500 5.0 3.9 3.52000 4.8 3.7 3.3 3.02500 4.7 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.73000 4.7 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.56000 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.8

h. For comparing percentage estimates near 35% or 65%500 6.3

1000 5.5 4.51500 5.2 4.1 3.72000 5.0 3.9 3.4 3.22500 4.9 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.83000 4.8 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.66000 4.7 3.4 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.8

24

TABLE A2


n2n1 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 6000

i. For comparing percentage estimates near 40% or 60%500 6.5

1000 5.6 4.61500 5.3 4.2 3.82000 5.1 4.0 3.5 3.32500 5.0 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.93000 5.0 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.76000 4.8 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9

j. For comparing percentage estimates near 45% or 55%500 6.6

1000 5.7 4.71500 5.4 4.3 3.82000 5.2 4.0 3.6 3.32500 5.1 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.03000 5.1 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.76000 4.9 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9

k. For comparing percentage estimates near 50%500 6.6

1000 5.8 4.71500 5.4 4.3 3.82000 5.3 4.1 3.6 3.32500 5.1 3.9 3.4 3.2 3.03000 5.1 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.76000 4.9 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9

NOTE: The figures in the table represent two standard errors of the difference between two percentages. Locate the sample sizes (n1 and n2) for the two percentages that are being compared. If the observed difference is larger than the table entry, the difference is significant at the 5% level.

25

surveys of consumers data file documentation

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