Prof. Shlomo Maital Prof. Shlomo Maital

Jan. 26/09Jan. 26/091

Survival & Growth in a Global Paradigm Shift

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Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

paradigm shift: “a change in the prevailing assumptions”

Where’s WALDO? / hidden assumptions?

How do you knowit is a paradigm shift???????

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Global Risk / Global Opportunity

Twelve Essential Tools for Tracking Minds, Markets & Money

By Shlomo Maital, Achal Raghavan and D.V.R. Seshadri

RISK OPPORTUNITY

What do you see ?

Yogi Berra: “it’s that old déjà vu all over again!”

We’ve seenthis movie!”

Actually: You haven’t!

U.S. equity losses: $3.6 trillion of which: banking - $1.8 trillion (total capital of banking sector was $1.3 tr.)

Israel: $100 b. equity losses (TASE), 2/3 of GDP

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הישרדות? כוכב נולד?

Survivor? American Idol

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“WHY DID NO-ONE SEE IT COMING ?”

Queen Elizabeth II, during a visit to the London School of Economics, Nov.’08

How Financial Bubbles Happen

Use money to make goods, services

Use money to make money for others

Use money to make money for yourself

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Taiwanese exports fall sharpest since 2001 By Robin Kwong in TaipeiPublished: December 8 2008 16:42 Taiwan’s exports last month fell by almost a quarter compared to a year ago, the sharpest drop since September 2001 and an indication of the accelerating downturn hitting export-oriented Asian economies.

United States

U.S. jobless rate jumps to 7.2%

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. Last week the Chinese government announced that the country's exports fell in November, compared with a year earlier, in the first such monthly drop for seven years. There are said to be 1m new graduates looking for work. It is generally held that the Chinese economy needs to grow at 8 per cent a year to absorb all the new workers coming on to the market. But new projections suggest that Chinese growth next year will be lower than that - possibly much lower.

S Korea's output tumbles at fastest ever paceBy Christian Oliver in Seoul Published: December 31 2008

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CES 2009 - Consumer Electronics Industry 2009 Forecast January 8th, 2009 by Dan Yeung

The consumer electronics industry is projected to generate $171 billion in U.S. shipment revenues in 2009, according to the semi-annual industry forecast released by the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA). CEA President and CEO Gary Shapiro announced the forecast today in his opening remarks at the 2009 International CES, the world’s largest consumer technology tradeshow.

The industry continued to grow in 2008 despite the economic downturn. CEA’s estimate of final shipment revenues for 2008 showed the industry reached a new high of $172 billion, an increase of 5.4 percent over 2007. In 2009, overall, CEA projects that domestic shipment revenues will essentially remain flat at $171 billion, a decrease of 0.6 percent over 2008.

The primary revenue driver for the industry continues to be digital TV displays, representing 15 percent of total industry shipment dollars. As the transition todigital television nears, unit shipments of DTVs will approach 35 million in 2009, an increase of nearly 6 percent over 2008 shipments. LCD displays remain the top choice among consumers, representing 77 percent of total DTV units.

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Blu-ray players are expected to see major growth in 2009. With more content, new products and lower prices, Blu-Ray revenues are projected to surpass $1.2 billion. The gaming category also remains a bright spot in the CE industry and an increasing component of consumer spending. The overall video game market should grow 11 percent, generating nearly $22 billion in revenue this year, a new high mark for the category. Software continues to drive the gaming market, helped by a growing installed base of next-generation consoles. Gaming software revenues are expected to grow 18 percent to nearly $15 billion.

“Consumers continue to seek the best picture, sound and entertainment experience available,” said Steve Koenig, CEA’s director of industry analysis. “With a majority of U.S. homes owning an HDTV, consumers are looking to add high-definition content through Blu-ray players, gaming devices and home audio systems.” The updated sales and forecast report also shows consumers are turning to smartphones as their mobile phone of choice. Smartphone revenues will continue to grow this year, increasing nearly 20 percent this year, to $13.6 billion. As carriers increase the speed of their networks and offer new services in addition to communication, smartphones will account for more than 60 percent of total handset revenues

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What is this signal telling us ?????

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Back to top

Back to top

Year to year net income growth, %, US

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Case Studies of “Moving Up” Strategies

Ryanair vs. EasyJet

Nokia

Toyota

Rolls Royce

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What is your business/group/team/function's current situation in the market? Who are your main competitors? What is their downturn and upturn strategies? What are you preparing in response? What is your recession plan/strategy? (address: money management, innovation, customer focus & needs, price sensitivity, brand strategies, sales strategy, people [layoffs, communication, talent retention]). What is your short-term scenario for the global economy and for your own customers, market or industry? What is your upturn plan/strategy? What is your worst-case scenario? Probability? What changes have occurred among your clients, and how have you responded to these changes? What changes will likely occur in future among your clients, and how will you respond? • What will the new ‘rules of the game’ be in your industry, and how will your strategy leverage them?

“Moving Up” Questionnaire

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Building an Action Plan

Ten Steps That Will Create Growth and Profit in the Upturn

Ten Steps That Will Stop the Bleeding in the Downturn