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Sustainability of Indian EnergySustainability of Indian EnergySector & ChallengesSector & Challenges
I A KHAN, Adviser (Energy)I A KHAN, Adviser (Energy)I A KHAN, Adviser (Energy)I A KHAN, Adviser (Energy)Planning CommissionPlanning CommissionGovernment of IndiaGovernment of India
Trends in Supply of Primary Commercial EnergyTrends in Supply of Primary Commercial Energy(in MTOE)(in MTOE)
2000-01Actual
2006-07Actual
2011-12(Provi)
2016-17 Proj.
2021-22 Proj.
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
Coal 130.61 177.24 222.16 308.55 400Lignite 6.43 8.76 10.64 16.80 29Crude Oil 33.4 33.99 39.23 42.75 43Natural Gas 25.07 27.71 42.79 76.13 103Hydro Power 6.4 9.78 11.22 12.90 17Nuclear Power 4.41 4.91 8.43 16.97 30Renewable Energy 0.13 0.87 5.25 10.74 20Total Domestic commercial Energy 206.45 263.28 339.72 481.84 642.00
Source: Planning Commission: Figures in brackets are annual average growth rates over the previous 5 years period
Total Domestic commercial Energy 206.45 263.28 339.72 481.84 642.00
Non-commercial Energy 1 136.64153.28(1.93)
174.20(2.6%)
187.66(1.5%)
202.16(1.5%)
Total 343.09 416.56 513.92 669.50 844.16IMPORTSCoal 11.76 24.92 54.00 90.00 150.00 Petroleum Products 77.25 98.41 129.86 152.44 194.00 LNG 0 8.45 12.56 24.80 31.00Hydro power 0 0.26 0.45 0.52 0.6Total Net Imports 89.01 132.04 196.87 267.76 375.60Total Commercial Energy (growth over previous 5 years)
295.46396.32
(5.01%)536.59
(6.25%)749.60
(6.91%)1017.606.30%)
Total Primary Energy 432.01549.60
(4.09%)710.79
(5.28%)937.26
(5.69%)1219.76(5.41%)
Country GDP(PPP)/Capita Per Capita Consumption
Electricity Energy
(US$)2000 Normalized (KWh) Tons
USA 38,558 100.0 13,647 7.5
Germany 28,638 89.1 7148 4.1
Brazil 8,584 51.8 2232 1.3
Power Sector Indicators – World (2008)
Source: 1. Key World Energy Statistics 2010,
#. Estimates of Integrated Energy Policy 2007
*. CEA 2010-11 ( Provi.)
Brazil 8,584 51.8 2232 1.3
China 8,150 24.1 2453 1.6
India 3,781 19.2 818 * 0.58
India 2031-32 # 2470 1.5
CHINA
41.6
50.9 49 4743
27
40
33.231.3
30
40
50
60
% o
f G
DP
INDIA
26
41.1
48.2
5456
31.3
24.9
27.629
26.930
40
50
60
% o
f G
DP
Sectors % GDP Share – CHINA Vs INDIA
11 10
15.9
0
10
20
30
1990 2000 2008 2011
% o
f G
DP
1817
0
10
20
1990 2000 2008 2011
% o
f G
DP
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: World Bank- World Development Indicators -2012
Items USA Germany Brazil China India
Thermal 770(74.8%)
80.2(67.4%)
25.3(9.9%)
706.7(74.8%)
131.6(65.8%)
Hydro 78(11.6%)
10.6(3.7%)
78.6(83.2%)
213.4(24.5%)
39.0(19.5%)
(000’ MW)
Electricity Generation Capacity – World 2009(including non-utility capacity)
(11.6%) (3.7%) (83.2%) (24.5%) (19.5%)
Nuclear 101(11.6%)
20.5(19.5%)
2.0(2.6%)
10.8(0.7%)
4.8(2.4%)
Geothermal/SolarWind /Biomass
61(2.0%)
41(9.4%)
8(4.3%)
32.0 24.5(12.3%)
TOTAL 1010 152.3 113.9 962.9 * 199.9 #
# Installed Capacity as March 2012 Utilities & Non-Utilities – 225,000 MW; * 2010
Sector9th Plan 10th Plan 11th Plan 12th Plan
Actual Actual Actual Target
Central 4504 12165 15220 26181.6
(in MW)
Capacity Addition (Plan-wise) – Sector Wise
State 9450 6244.6 16732 15530.0
Private 5061 2670.6 23012 46825.0
Renewable 6761 14267 30000.0
All India 19015 27,841 69,231 118536.6
Mode-Wise9th Plan 10th Plan 11th Plan 12th Plan 13th Plan
Actual Actual Actual Provi. Scenario
Thermal 13,597 12,114 48,540 72,340 49,200
(In MW)
Capacity Addition (Plan-wise) - Mode-Wise
Hydro 4,538 7,886 5,544 10,897 12,000
Nuclear 880 1,080 880 5,300 18,000
Renewable 6761 14267 30,000 30,500
Total 19,015 27,841 69,231 118537 1,09,700
Changing Structure of Fuel for Electricity( in %)
Capacity (%) Generation (%)
2012 2017 2030 2012 2017 2030
1. Coal 56 57 42 70 69 58
2. Oil 1 1 0 0 0 0
3. Gas 9 6 3 7 5 3
4. Hydro 20 15 13 14 12 11
5. Renewables 12 17 33 6 9 16
6. Nuclear 2 4 9 3 5 12
7. Total Clean Energy
(4+5+6) 23 26 39
COAL DEMAND DURING TWELFTH PLAN ( in MT )
COAL PRODUCTION ( in MT )
Demand-Supply Gap in 2016-17 ( in MT )
MMT/MMSCMD 2011-12 2012-13 2016-17
Demand of Natural Gas 250 286 370
Production of Natural gas 130 143 230
Import of LNG (MMT)
Natural Gas Availability
Import of LNG (MMT) 10.13
(38)
14 30
(114)
BEE Proposed Schemes : 12th Plan
Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) in new building and energy efficiency improvements in existing buildings (Phase-II)Avoided capacity addition of 928 MW
Municipal Demand Side management (MuDSM) ProgrammeAvoided capacity addition of 120 MW
Source: Bureau of Energy efficiency
Energy Efficiency and Technologies Up-gradation in Small and Medium enterprises
Avoided capacity addition of 131 MW
Standard & Labeling Scheme (S&L)Avoided capacity addition of 7766 MW
Total Saving @ 5 Cr /MW will be Rs 44725 Crore
National Energy Saving Targets under PAT (%)
(2012-15)
Source: Bureau of Energy efficiency
PAT Scheme : Background & Scope
Covers 478 designated consumers in 8 sectors
All DCs consume about 165 million toe energy
Targets would be given to all DCs to achieve the same within a time frame
-Achievement > Target E-Scerts-Achievement < Target Purchase E-Scerts / Penalty
Source: Bureau of Energy efficiency
The Energy Savings Certificates (ESCerts) so issued will be tradable on special trading platforms to be created in the two power exchanges (Indian Energy Exchange and Power Exchange India).
National Target = 6.686 million toe at the end of 1st PAT Cycle ( by 2014-15)
Perform, Achieve & Trade (PAT) Mechanism
Perform Achieve and Trade (PAT): A market based mechanism to enhance costeffectiveness of improvements in energy efficiency in energy-intensive largeindustries and facilities, through certification of energy savings that could be traded.
The key goal of the PAT scheme is to mandate specific energy efficiencyimprovements for the most energy intensive industries.
The scheme builds on the large variation in energy intensities of different units inalmost every sector, ranging from amongst the best in the world, to extremelyinefficient units as well.
Source: Bureau of Energy efficiency
The energy intensity reduction target mandated for each unit is dependent on itscurrent efficiency : the reduction target is less for those who are more efficient, andis higher for the currently less-efficient units.
The design of PAT is the result of extensive consultations over the last two years(2010-11 and 2011-12), which have contributed to its robustness and simplicity.
Country Coal Natural Gas
USA 1.5-2.0 2.1
Canada 1.6 2.0
China 2.0-2.5 3.5
Unit Cost Of Fuel – Cent/kwh
# Domestic Natural Gas
China 2.0-2.5 3.5
India 2.0-2.5 4.5 #
Source: Country Reports
Energy Architecture Conceptual Framework
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