Sustainable Development and Low Carbon Growth

Strategy for India

Kirit S. ParikhChairman, Integrated Research and Action for Development

Chairman, Expert Committee on Low Carbon Strategy for Inclusive Growth

The Background

• India’s economy needs to grow at 8 % to 10 % per year for two to three decades to meet its human development needs.

• Growth coupled with growing population puts significant stress on natural resources & environment.

• Major threat to sustainability of India’s development arises from energy use.

• Per capita consumption of energy in India is one of the lowest in the world.

India consumed 530 kg of oil equivalent (kgoe) per person of primary energy in 2007 compared to 1480 in China, 7750 in the U.S. and the world average of 1820

• 84% of the 160 million rural households, 23% of the 72 million urban

households cook with biomass based solid fuels

India’s Energy Needs, Resources and Options

Total Primary Energy Supply in 2007

• .Coal, 8343 Pj,

42%

Fuel wood + Animal Dung 2271Pj, 11%

Renewable731Pj, 4%

Natural Gas,1221Pj,

6%

LNG, 427Pj, 2%

Lignite, 408Pj, 2%

Petroleum Products, 6523Pj,

33%

Energy Consumption by Fuels and Forms in India (2007)

Natural Gas, 1221Pj,

8%

LNG, 427 Pj, 3%

Electricity,2081Pj, 14%

Fuel Wood + Animal Dung, 2271Pj,

16%

Coal, 2111Pj, 14%

Petroleum Products, 6523 Pj, 45%

Commercial Energy Requirement, Domestic Production and Imports for 8 percent Growth: Base scenario

• Potential for nuclear power is limited. By 2030, it can at most contribute 7 to 8 % of electrical energy.

• Bio fuels are limited by the availability of cultivable land • Solar power has substantial potential. • The low hanging fruit is energy efficiency

Fuel Comm Energy 2020

Comm Energy 2030

Dom. Prod 2030

Imports 2030

Import 2030 (Percent)

  (R) (P) (I) (I/R)

Oil (Mt) 259 453 35 418 93

N Gas+ CBM (Mtoe)

52 93 100   0

Coal (Mtoe) 511 923 560 363 39

Others (Mtoe) 41 82 0 0

TPCES 1553 1553 781 50

India’s GHG Emissions in the Global Context • The total GHG emissions from India in 2007 were 1727.7 million

tonnes of CO2 equivalent.

• India’s total CO2 emissions in 2007 were less than one fifth that of USA and China.

• In per capita terms India emitted 1.18 tonnes of Co2, China four times as much and US 16 times as much.

• Emission intensity of India is 0.28 kg of CO2/$ of GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, China’s more than twice as high and USA’s also nearly twice as high.

Energy Related Cumulative CO2 Emissions   MT of CO2 MT of CO2 Percent Percent

Country 1990-2006 1850-2006 1990-2006 1850-2006

World 400834 1000000 100 100

India 15977 27433 4 2

China 61360 99204 15 9

Brazil 4925 9457 1 1

USA 92641 333747 23 29

Europe15 55377 252148 14 22

Annex I 237534 856115 59 74

Non-Annex I 157582 281497 39 25

• India’s contribution since 1850 to global emissions is only 2.4 percent while that of USA is 29 percent.

• Since 1990, India’s share is 4 percent in emissions, China’s 15 percent and USA’s 23 percent.

The Structure of India’s Emissions GHG emissions by sector

• Electricity accounts for 38 percent of the GHG emissions in 2007.

• Agriculture accounts for 18 percent of the GHG emissions

CO2 Emission Distribution across Sectors in 2007.

• The electricity sector accounted for 51 per cent.• 10 percent of the CO2 emission was from the

transport sector.• Manufacturing industries together accounted for 29

per cent.

Strategy for Low Carbon Growth

A Low Carbon Strategy.

Determined Effort

)

Aggressive Effort

8% Growth Rate

9% Growth Rate

8% Growth Rate

9% Growth Rate

Table Continued on the next slide….

SectorsEmissions as

per 2005 normDetermined effort MT CO2

PercentAggressive effort MT CO2

Percent

Power 1609        

DSM   96 6 201 13

Supply side   85 5 145 9

Transport 476        

Freight modal shift

  14 3 22 5

Passenger modal shift

  17 4 24 5

Vehicle fuel efficiency

  11 2 17 4

Emissions in 2020 with 8 % growth rate as per 2005 intensity and Reductions in MT CO2 and per cent

Industry          

Iron & Steel 442 36 8 82 19

Cement 393.5 57.5 15 100 25

Oil & Gas 154 29 19 39 25

Other Industries 285 40 14 100 35

Buildings    

Commercial 610 60 10 122 20

Other Household Energy

270 15 6 41 15

Waste Management

150 15 10 32 21

Miscellaneous 155 16 10 33 21

Projected Emission Intensity Reduction over 2005 levels

• Emission intensity reduction of around 24.44 % with determined effort and 34.4 % with aggressive effort compared to 2005.

• Emission intensity reduction of around 23.88 % with determined effort and 33.27 % with aggressive effort compared to 2005.

Growth Scenarios:2020 8% growth 9% growth

Higher and Lower Ends of the Range

2005 Emissions DE AE DE AE

Emission Intensity (grams CO2eq/Rs

GDP) 56.21 42.47 36.87 42.79 37.51

(%) Reduction in Emission Intensity   24.44% 34.40% 23.88% 33.27%

Policy Options Promoting Energy Efficiency

Lighting

o A compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) o costs 7 to 10 times as much as IL o An LED lamp consumes even less of electricity than a CFL but

costs much more .

Energy Efficient Appliances

o Energy rating scheme.o The label - electricity consumed and energy efficiency.o Private individuals and firms can buy on Life cycle cost.o But not procurement officers of public sectors firms or government

departments buy on first cost basis

Rating and Characteristics of a 1.5 ton Air-conditioner (used 4 hours a day)

Starranking

Energy Efficiency Ratio (Min)

Consumption Per day

Cost Saving Per year

   kWh Rs.

No star2.2 9.45 0

12.3 9.04 308

22.5 8.32 851

32.7 7.7 1313

42.9 7.17 1712

53.1 6.71 2059

Present Discounted value in Rupees of saving over no star model over 5 years at discount rate.

Star rating 10 % 15%

1 1168 1032

2 3226 2853

3 4977 4401

4 6490 5739

5 7805 6902

Promoting Energy Efficiency in Industry o Concentrating on new industries to set up energy efficient plants is

an attractive option.

o Labeling for industrial equipment, such as variable speed drives, can be effective if energy prices are competitively determined.

o Trade parity prices for fuels.

o Perform achieve and trade (PAT) is being introduced for industries. It covers only some 700 large firms

o The BEE is examining some 25 clusters to see how there SMEs can be incentivized to improve energy efficiency.

Electricity Supply

o National Solar Mission to make Solar Electricity cost competitive to coal based electricity by 2020 or latest by 2030.

o Firms are required to bid for the feed in tariff they need and the first auction has already lowered the feed in tariff to Rs 15/ kWhr from the ceiling of Rs 15.

o State electricity regulatory commissions announced renewable portfolio obligation and the certificates can be traded, for which power exchanges provide electronic trading platforms.

Energy Conservation in Buildings

o Appropriate design using natural sunlight and appropriate orientation, insulation and natural sources of cooling and heating.

o BEE in India enacted an energy conservation building code (ECBC).

Transport

o The stock of automobiles has been growing at more than 20 % in recent years and two wheelers even faster.

o Shift long distance freight movement from trucks to trains: Moving a billion tonne-km of goods by rail compared to road can save 30 Mt of diesel and save 54 Mt of Co2 .

o Improve mass transport in urban areas of quality that induces vehicle owners to travel by it

o Design cities that reduce need for travel and encourage walking and cycling

o Improve fuel efficiency of vehicles

Conclusion

• For sustainable development, manage resources and environment well

• Improve energy use efficiency

• Encourage renewable sources of energy

• India can reduce by 2020 its emission intensity by 25 % compared with 2005 as was declared at Copenhagen.

Thank You