sustainable development, water and security (selected

of 36 / MFCC:\DOCUMENTS AND SETTINGS\MICHAEL E. CAMPANA\MY DOCUMENTS\REPORTS\02 COLLET

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Sustainable Development, Water and Security (Selected International Aspects)

Paper prepared for the 10th OSCE Economic Forum on “Co-operation for the Sustainable Use and the Protection of the Quality of Water

In the Context of the OSCE”

(Prague, May 28-31, 2002)

By

Jean Michel ColletteI International Consultant

and

Daniel Linotte

Senior Economic Adviser, OSCE

I Former Deputy Director at the UNECE.


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CONTENT Introduction 1. The Idea of Sustainable Development: Brief Historical Perspective

The Unbearable Costs of Wars and Arms Race “Seminal Works” after WWII The Impact of Environmental Disasters “Only One Earth” Institutional Responses “The Limits to Growth” Defining Sustainable Development The Dublin Statement on Water and Sustainable Development The Earth Summit – Rio 1992 Operationalising the Concept The Example of Gas Emissions and Climate Changes Environmental Sustainability Index 2. Water Resource Problems The Importance of Water Rich versus Poor Countries Growing Demand for Water Climate Changes and Water Supply Water-stress and Conflicts 3. International Responses The UN System The World Bank OECD Globalisation, WTO and Water International NGOs Regional Approaches: The EU Experience The Role of the OSCE Final Remarks and Conclusions Annexes - Tables - Figures


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“Earth turned white” (Sumerian quote, 2100 BC?) “The land was the best in the world, and was therefore able in those days to support a vast army, raised from the surrounding people … in those days the country was fair as now and yielded far more abundant produce. How shall I establish my words? And what part of it can be truly called a remnant of the land that then was? The whole country is only a long promontory extending far into the sea away from the rest of the continent, while the surrounding basin of the sea is everywhere deep in the neighbourhood of the shore. Many great deluges have taken place … the earth has fallen away all round and sunk out of sight. The consequence is, that in comparison of what then was, there are remaining only the bones of the wasted body, as they may be called, as in the case of small islands, all the richer and softer parts of the soil having fallen away, and the mere skeleton of the land being left. But in the primitive state of the country, its mountains were high hills covered with soil, and the plains, as they are termed by us, of Phelleus were full of rich earth, and there was abundance of wood in the mountains.” (Plato, Critias, circa -375) "We have become rich through the lavish use of our natural resources and we have just reason to be proud of our growth. But the time has come to inquire seriously what will happen when our forests are gone, when the coal, the iron, the oil and the gas are exhausted, when the soil has been further impoverished and washed into the streams, polluting the rivers, denuding the fields and obstructing navigation." (President Theodore Roosevelt, Conference on the Conservation of Natural Resources, 1908) "We do not have to believe in the inevitability of environmental catastrophe to accept the possibility of such a catastrophe. Whether the crisis is, in a physical sense, just around the corner or well over the horizon cannot obscure the fact that we have a policy crisis on our hands right now. We need only look at the unintended results of past and present decisions.” (Maurice Strong, Opening Statement of the UN Conference on the Human Environment, Stockholm , June 1972)


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Introduction

Following the resolution 55/196 of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), 2003 will

be the international year of fresh water. The government of Tajikistan, one of the OSCE

participating states, initiated the resolution that was adopted on 20 December 2000.

The UNGA decision reflects: 1) the evolution of thinking about environmental

matters that led to the Earth Summit in 1992 and the forthcoming World Summit in

Johannesburg this year, and 2) growing evidence about the negative impacts of human

activities on the environment and related concerns about peace and security.

The aim of this short note is to provide background information on a number of

issues related to sustainable development, water and security, which might be of assistance for

further discussions.

This note is divided into three sections. The first one explains how the sustainable

development concept emerged. In the second section, water problems are presented as well as

their potential impacts on security. International responses are addressed in the third section,

including the role of the OSCE.

Selected background statistical data on OSCE countries and other regions are

provided in the annex.

1. Sustainable Development and the Environment: Brief Historical Perspective

As indicated by the antique Sumerian quote, reflecting the negative impact of

deforestation, environmental concerns were already articulated four thousands years ago. The

myth of the “Garden of Eden” also shows that the search for a better human society is as old

as man himself. It is rooted in the nature of human activities, which interact with the natural

resource base in a variety of ways, both positive and negative. Taken in a broad sense nature

can be regarded as a productive source of energy and materials which are either consumed

directly by the population or used by enterprises as inputs into their activity. It should also be

viewed as a set of life-supporting services provided by the environmental system consisting of

air, water, land and mineral resources.

Conversely, human activities, particularly those of an economic nature, provide

society with the material means to maintain and improve the natural base, while enhancing

man’s capacity to withstand, or at least to mitigate, some of the main threats and hazards

posed by pollution and other forms of environmental degradation. It is, therefore, hardly


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surprising that resource preservation and pollution abatement are rightly regarded as

prerequisites for sustainable development strategies in any organised society.

Environmental laws have been already adopted in the Middle Ages, for instance to

regulate the use of forests in France and coal burning in London in the 1300s. Rotation culture

was a common practice to reconstitute soil fertility and avoid irreversible degradations of the

agricultural land. In North America, as early as 1652, the City of Boston established a public

water supply. Nevertheless, one must perhaps wait until the “Enlightenment” period and the

subsequent scientific and industrial revolution for observing more systematic and ambitious

attempts to control the impact of human activities on the environment, above all for

improving health conditions.

The 1789 French Revolution created a new public policy, where health became one of

the most important individual rights, beside the right of property and fundamental liberties.1

That partly explains the construction of the unique and vast Parisian network of tunnels and

sewers that replicate the busy streets above, under the supervision of Baron Haussmann and

engineer Belgrand, in the middle of the 19th century.

Another revolution arose in the 19th century with the English chemist Edward

Frankland, who became the leading water specialist in the 1870s and 1880s. He associated

“bad water” with the idea of contamination. “A presumed act done to the water thus replaced

a manifest condition of the water.”2 In that respect, the importance of Louis Pasteur’s work,

the inventor of modern bacteriology, should be underlined. He also emphasised the role of

water as a carrier of germs. Linking contamination to the spread of infectious diseases would

also point to the importance of preventing pollution and decontaminating or, in other words,

improving the state of the environment.

US Presidents played key-roles in advocating new ideas and institutions. During his

mandate (1901-1909), President Theodore Roosevelt undertook a campaign for environmental

preservation, which gave an impetus to policies and led to the creation of official bodies. A

decade after, President Wilson also promoted The League of Nations in his famous Fourteen

Points presented before the US Congress in January 1918.

1 “Environmental History Timeline”, Radfort University.website. 2 Chistopher Hamlin, “III.12 – Water”, in Kenneth F. Kiple and Kriemhild Conee Ornelas, The Cambridge World History of Food.


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The Unbearable Costs of Wars and Arms Race

The two World Wars, initiated by rather autocratic and intolerant regimes, costed the lives of

at least 70 millions peoples, human beings of all continents and ages, combatants and

civilians. Furthermore, they corresponded to incommensurable ecological catastrophes, with

lasting effects in some cases. As illustrated by nuclear testing, the development of weapons

contributes to environmental degradation and human suffering. The decommissioning of arms

and ammunitions also requires considerable means, definitely lost for other purposes.

It is probably no coincidence that the work on the ecological consequences of ill-

controlled scientific and technological progress started shortly after the end of the Second

World War.

The Rise of the Ecological Consciousness after the Second World War

In 1945, Rachel Carson, an American scientist, proposed an article to the Reader’s Digest

about the negative aspects of DDT extensive use in agriculture. In the late 1950s, after being

shocked by the disappearance of birds, she decided to write a more comprehensive book to

alert the public on the hazards of pesticides. She finally published her book, with the title

Silent Spring in 1962, which led to an immediate and negative reaction from chemical

companies.

Nevertheless, along with other major contributions that aimed at a better

understanding of the complex relationship between man and nature, she stimulated growing

concerns and consciousness about the environment. She is often seen as one of the spiritual

founders of the environmental movement in the US, which does not reflect the impact of

earlier contributions.

The Impact of Environmental Disasters

On March 18, 1967, a large vessel, the Torrey Canyon, carrying crude oil ran aground in

England. The intervention of the Royal Navy, with the use of dispersants and napalm, even

worsened the environmental disaster. Another important case is the “Minimata disease” in

Japan, where water pollution killed or caused deformities. The pollution was the result of the

dumping of mercury into the sea for several decades. The company responsible for the

poisoning was finally forced into court in 1969, after almost 10 years of protest. In the late

1960s, acid rains became also a source of concerns.

These disasters became widely publicised events and drew almost universal

attention. They were like the tip of an iceberg, revealing the most visible aspects of a much


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wider phenomenon, namely the negative impact of human activities on the environment and

life. As a result, several measures to protect the environment were adopted between 1968 and

1972. However, the main event in the field of international environmental co-operation was

the 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment often referred to as the Stockholm

Conference.

“Only One Earth” (1972)

Rene Dubos and Barbara Ward, two distinguished scientists, published a study in 1972. In

this major work, they underlined the negative impact of human activities on the biosphere and

expressed optimism about the possibilities offered by co-operation between nations for

building a common future for mankind.

This report was commissioned by the SG of the Stockholm Conference, Maurice

Strong, and was prepared with the assistance of the 150-member committee of consultants in

58 countries.

Dubos and Ward played key-roles in the Stockholm Conference, including the

conciliation of views between rich countries, that were pushing a pollution agenda, and those

who were more concerned about the broader challenge of development in the poorer

countries.3

Institutional Responses

Under the leadership of Maurice Strong, the Stockholm 1972 Conference on the Environment

promoted new approaches at both international and national levels to cope with the increased

pollution, the degradation of nature, resources depletion and various hazards.

The Conference adopted a Declaration on the Human Environment, with an action

plan for environmental assessment (Earth watch) and management, taking into account side

effects of human activities, and “protect and enhance the human environment for present and

future generations”. The Conference stimulated the creation of national environmental

agencies and the establishment of the United Nations Environmental Programme, UNEP. It

provided an impetus to the work carried out by the OECD and other bodies in the field of

environment.

3 Richard Sandbrook, “Twenty Years On and Five Years In”, Yearbook of International Co-operation and Development 1998/99, pp. 19-22.


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“The Limits to Growth”

Partly based on the seminal work of Karl L. von Bertalanffy on system theory, and relying on

the calculation capabilities offered by computers, another major contribution to the study of

the relationship between man, natural resources and the environment was the 1972 “Report to

the Club of Rome”, with the title The Limits to Growth, written under the direction of an MIT

professor, Dennis L. Meadows.

The basic feature of the study is the use of feedback loops that connect actions to

their effects, which, in turn, can determine further actions. When applying that feature to the

use of natural resources, one can develop a pessimistic scenario, where growth will in the long

run be confronted with limits with the depletion of the raw material base. Even if more

resources can be found, pollution problems remain. Assuming that the resource and pollution

problems can be solved, we are still confronted with population growth and its pressure on

food availability. Broadly speaking, the Meadows’ Report suggests that both world population

and economy will first overshoot and then collapse irremediably, with tremendous side effects

in terms of famines and conflicts. The proposed solution was “zero growth”, which led to

strong negative reactions from both developed and developing countries.

Meadows’ Report was heavily criticised because of its methodology, scenarios and

policy implications. Thus, “few decades later, these ‘predictions’ have not fulfilled their

promises and human activities still enjoy economic growth. Nevertheless, the link between

economic growth and the environment remains heavily debated”.4

Defining Sustainable Development

In 1982, the World Charter for Nature was adopted by the UNGA. That document stresses

ecological and ethical principles of development. The idea of sustainable development was

above all developed by a comprehensive report of the World Commission on Environment

and Development (WCED or the “Brundtland Commission”), Our Common Future, published

in 1987.

The WCED also proposed what is seen as the reference definition of sustainable

development: “Development that meets the needs of the present generation without

compromising the ability of the future generations to meet their own needs”.

The WCED four hundred pages document covers most fields of human activities and

stimulated further research and approaches aiming at reconciling economic, social and


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environmental needs, often related to water resources, an area to which special attention was

given by WCED and subsequent works.

The Dublin Statement on Water and Sustainable Development

In January 1992, five hundred participants, representing countries, IOs and NGOs, attended

the Dublin international conference on water and the environment (ICWE). They adopted 4

principles for the sustainable use of water, providing a frame for discussing water in the Rio

Summit. They remain important reference principles for all major actors in the field of water,

including the World Bank.

Box 1: The Four Dublin Principles 1. Fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development and the environment. 2. Water development and management should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners

and policy-makers at all levels. 3. Women play a central role in the provision, management and safeguard of water. 4. Water has an economic value in all its competing uses and should be recognised as an economic good.

The Earth Summit – Rio 1992

The preparation of the Rio UN Conference on Environment and Development gave more

impetus to sustainable development, providing conceptual and practical perspective and

aiming at re-conciliating environmental and economic objectives. The Conference also

decided the drafting of the Earth Charter. The Rio Declaration Principle 1 states that “human

beings are at the centre of concerns for sustainable development”. It calls for the protection

and restoration of ecological systems and underlines the importance of poverty eradication.

The Rio Declaration was followed by “A Programme of Action for Sustainable

Development”, often referred to as Agenda 21. The implementation of these guidelines was

entrusted to a new body – the Commission on Sustainable Development that started working

in 1993.

The next World Summit on Sustainable Development (often called “Rio + 10”) will

take place Johannesburg, from 26 August to 4 September 2002. It is expected that a plan for

action will be adopted with specific steps for promoting sustainable development. Access to

safe water is seen as a major priority.

4 Joelle Noailly, “Modelling Sustainable Development: An Overview of Neoclassical and Evolutionary Approaches”, Mimeo, August 14, 2000.


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Operationalising the Concept

The concept of sustainable development is still debated: “no consensus prevails on a unique

definition of sustainable development and the wide range of interpretations in the literature

presents often a rather confusing picture”.5

Despite conceptual difficulties, studies and actions that address sustainable

development are mushrooming. They address data collection, “green” and natural resource

accounting, bio-diversity, modelling the interaction between economic activities and

resources, forecasting pollution trends and climate changes, scenario analysis, with the

provision of policy recommendations, the adoption of international conventions and domestic

legislation, and the establishment of organisations.

The Example of Gas Emissions and Climate Changes

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gases emissions cause the “greenhouse effect”. Many human

activities contribute to the production of these gases that can remain in the atmosphere for

decades, stimulating a warming up tendency, which influences water conditions.

In an earlier study, Bruce Cohen and Jean-Michel Collette have shown that much

time will be needed to stabilise CO2 emissions and reduce its atmospheric concentrations to

acceptable levels. That requires intensified international co-operation in the R&D sphere and

facilitating technology transfers.6

The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol,

adopted by the so-called “Convention of the Parties” (the “supreme body” of the Climate

Convention) are addressing these emissions. Related national legislation is also adopted and

implemented in many countries, especially the richest, namely the US, Western Europe and

Japan.

Box 2: Environmental Sustainability Index The Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network has already calculated

an aggregated index of environmental sustainability (ESI) for 122 countries. ESI has five core components covering 22 indicators: 1) environmental systems (including water quantity

and quality), 2) environmental stresses, 3) human vulnerability, 4) social and institutional capacity and 5) global stewardship (international commitments).

5 J. Noailly, op. cit. 6 Bruce C. Cohen and Jean Michel Collette (1991), “Fossil-Fuel Use and Sustainable Development”, International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 132-141.


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Considering 1998 ESI data, many OSCE countries are found in the first quintile that is led by Finland, Norway and Canada. Haiti, Saudi Arabia and Burundi are located at the bottom of the list.

Overall, “higher levels of incomes are associated with higher ESI scores” (see Table 1 and Figure 1), which

may suggest that improving the environment requires adequate resources, expertise and international co-operation focusing on developing countries.

2. Water Resource Problems

Three-fourth of the Earth surface is water. About 1 percent of the Earth water is useable to

human beings, the rest is salty or frozen water. The quality and the quantity of available water

are altered by pollution caused by households and human activities in all economic sectors –

agriculture, mining, industry and services – which may also reduce its regenerating capacity

and role as a sink.

In this section, we provide background information and data that may help to better

assess the current water situation and trends, for both quality and quantity. From that

perspective, the economic concepts of demand and supply are useful. In the long run, the

demand for water can be related to variables such as population levels and indicators of

economic activities. Moreover, water supply will be modified by the on-going and

uncontrolled climate changes. The pricing of water also influences both users and suppliers.

Confronting demand and supply sides, we can unquestionably conclude about the growing

“water stress” and possible security implications.

Reference data for this work are most often country and even continent-wide

indicators that are provided by major IOs such as the World Bank, FAO, OECD and the

European Environmental Agency (EEA). These figures are aggregated indicators that may not

reflect differences between the regions of a country in terms of water availability and uses.

For instance, considering France, Normandy is more rainy and humid than Provence that is

itself confronted with recurrent and very localised droughts. Population density and the

concentration of specific economic activities in some regions have also an impact on water

quality that is not fully reflected in national statistics. That definitely shows the value of

detailed national studies, which goes beyond the scope of this preliminary work.

The Importance of Water

Both water quality and quantity are essential for life and economic activities. Considering

some background figures and facts:

- human water use has increased more than 35-fold over the past 300 years,


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- worldwide, 70 percent of water use is agricultural, 22 percent industrial and 8 percent

domestic,

- one third of world’s food crops are produced by irrigated agriculture,

- in the past 30 years, 50 percent of food supply was attributed to agricultural expansions,

which is often seen as unsustainable,

- one billion people in developing countries have no access to potable water and

approximately 1.7 billion have inadequate sanitation facilities,

- unsafe water is responsible for the death of 3 million people annually,

- and contaminated water causes about 2.4 billions of episodes of illness each year.7

Rich versus Poor Countries

Most often, water resource conditions and problems are directly related to levels of

development, institutions and policies. Per capita water consumption in North America is

twice that of Europe, three times that of Asia and seven times that of Africa.8 Moreover, in

low-income countries 87 percent of water withdrawals go to agriculture whereas in high-

income countries, industry represents 59 percent of water uses.

As indicated by Table 2, wide discrepancies are also observed between OSCE

countries. For instance, in most (high income) West European countries, industry represents

more than 80 percent of water uses. In the poor countries of Central Asia, the bulk of water

uses is in agriculture, especially for growing “thirsty” cotton.9

Another fundamental discrepancy between rich and poor countries is access to safe

water. Thus, in most developing countries, the basic provision of drinkable water remains a

formidable challenge. Sanitation has hardly improved in Latin America. In Asia, the situation

remains critical, with at least 500,000 infants dying each year from contaminated water. In

some transition countries, prevailing poor economic and financial conditions do not allow for

a good maintenance of infrastructures, which has also a negative impact on water quality.

Limited and unequal access to irrigation water also contributes to poverty in many

countries. Regarding the distribution of water rights and land ownership, women are often

7 Aris P. Georgakakos, “Water Resources Management: Challenges and Opportunities”, Research Horizon, Georgia Institute of Technology, Vol. 14, No. 1, Spring 1996. 8 Aris P. Georgakakos, op.cit. 9 See Daniel Linotte, “Poverty in Central Asia”, The Helsinki Monitor, Kluwer Law International, Vol. 13, No. 2, 2002.


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discriminated in poor countries. When water is scarce and distant from homes, women are

often responsible for the water task. In other words, water has a gender dimension.

Growing Demand for Water

As development, corresponding to more industry in the “Third World”, and population levels

continue to increase (the world population is expected to overtake 9 billions by 2050; see

Figure 2 and Table 3), the demand for water and food should increase dramatically.

According to figures provided by the US Bureau of Census, 99 percent of the

population change will take place in developing countries, where, in some cases, water

problems are already acute. For instance, population should increase by almost 70 percent,

from 144 to 240 millions over the next five decades in drought-prone North Africa (irrigated

Egypt might be the exception, thanks to the longest river on Earth – the Nile).

Climate Changes and Water Supply

“The projected change of 1.5-4 degree Celsius over the next (21st) century would be

unprecedented in comparison with the best available records for the last thousand years”.10

Simulation models show that rainfall will increase at high latitudes. In other regions, rainfall

should decline. CO2 forecasts are also worrying (Figure 3).

The melting of glaciers and ice caps will continue and, as a result, the sea level will

increase, flooding coastal regions. Various vulnerability indices have been proposed and

calculated, combining measures of insularity and population. Table 4 presents some values for

a group of selected countries. What matters is the cost of protection. For the Netherlands, that

cost represents 0.03 percent of GDP whereas the corresponding figure for the Maldives is one

third of GDP.

When confronting water demand and supply in the long run, there should be a

growing imbalance, especially in the developing countries, both humid and arid (see Figure

4). “Approximately one in three people live (now) in regions of moderate to high water stress

and it is estimated that two thirds of people will live in water stress conditions by 2025.”11

Overall, simulation models conclude to a significant worsening of water supply.12

10 NCDC, “Global Climatic Change”, Updated 06 December 2001. 11 UNEP, “Freshwater: A Global Crisis of Water Security and Basic Water Provision”, Towards Earth Summit 2002 – Environment Briefing No. 1. 12 Carmen Revenga, Jake Brunner, Norbert Henninger, Ken Kassern and Richard Payne, Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems, World Resources Institute, October 2000.


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South, South East and Central Asia, the Middle East, and North, Western and

Southern Africa are often pointed out as critical zones (see also Figure 5). On the contrary,

low population density places, like for instance Siberia and Canada, could become much more

attractive for agriculture and people. These contrasted evolutions may in turn aggravate

tensions between communities, countries and possibly civilisations.

Water-stress and International Tensions

De facto, tensions and conflicts over water are not new in history. For the last century only,

more than 50 critical situations are reported, with 24 cases recorded for the 1990s only.13

Considering the 21st century, preliminary evidence shows that water resource

problems will definitely increase. That may push some communities to relocate themselves,

which inevitably will create tensions with richer neighbours who benefit from better water

conditions. The pressure for emigration will force rich countries to raise additional barriers

and protection against potential and actual immigrants. That is well illustrated by the recent

decision of the Australian government to rebuff the request of the leaders of Tuvalu (a small

island State in the Pacific) to accepts its 11,000 citizens who should be forced to abandon

their land because of the rising sea level.14

Similar views are supported by F. Fisher and H. Askari: “water disputes over river

basins are a global phenomenon”. Moreover, “disputes over water are most commonly

considered as zero-sum games … Such a view of water allocation can lead only to conflict.”15

In the absence of international co-operation, the real game might correspond to net

losses for all countries. That could explain why in most cases countries opt for legal solutions

with the signing of treaties and conventions, and the creation of bodies for managing, for

instances, transboundary waterways or international river basins. Even if these formal

commitments and frameworks are, for various reasons, difficult to implement they still

represent valuable steps toward a better use of water resources, relying on the advances of

science and technology, and underlining the strong will to achieve partnership in a more

secured world.16

13 Source: Peter Gleick, “Water Conflict Chronology”, Pacific Studies for Studies in Development. Website address: www.worldwater.org/conflict.html. 14 Earth Policy Institute, November 15, 2001. 15 Franklin M. Fisher and Hossein Askari, “Optimal Water Management in the Middle East and Other Regions”, Finance & Development, Vol. 38, No. 3, Sept. 2001. 16 Aaron Wolf, A. "Conflict and Co-operation along International Waterways." Water Policy. Vol. 1, #2, 1998, pp. 251-265.


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As mentioned above, water stress zones have already been identified. Considering

OSCE regions, Central Asia is refereed to as a sensitive region, where the Aral Sea disaster

symbolises the legacy of Soviet times, the negative impact of excessive irrigation and the lack

of regional co-operation on water issues.17 That region is already the focus of series of

assistance programmes and projects. That is also the case of other regions. More assistance is

even expected from all sources and with a significant contribution from the profit oriented

private sector and benevolent international NGOs.

3. International Responses

Given the magnitude of actual and forthcoming water resources problems, there is an urgent

need for improving the use of scarce water resources. That may require a system (holistic)

approach that integrates, at least, four dimensions: 1) users or beneficiaries of water, 2)

organisations that are able to control and determine the supply of water, 3) the institutional

framework and 4) the overall context, that may influence decision-makers and outcomes.

All major actors should be involved in the design of water management strategies:

the state and other official bodies, even at a local level, the private sector, including business

associations, the civil society at large (especially NGOs) and international organisations, that

have gained a considerable experience in supporting third world and transition countries.

The UN System

The UN is the main organisation that is addressing both general environmental issues and

water problems in particular. It gathers the best experts to assess water conditions and trends,

define quality standards and provide comprehensive data basis. It promotes international

conventions aiming at improving the quality of life. Considering water management, it

supports integrated approaches and provides technical assistance.

UNEP is a leading institution in environmental matters. Its activities includes The

Global International Water Assessment that is being executed by Kalmar University in

Sweden. It should contribute to the formulation of policies and actions for protecting and

promoting a more sustainable use of international waters. UNEP just published a major

document, namely the Global Environment Outlook 3 that underlines the dangers of actual

17 See Stefan Kloetzli, “The Water and Soil Crisis in Central Asia – a Source for Future Conflicts”, ENCOP Occasional Paper No. 11, Centre for Security Policy and Conflict Research, Zurich/Swiss Peace Foundation, Bern, May 1994.


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trends. Improvements in river and air quality are observed in developed countries. However,

when observing the environmental decline in developing countries, the overall tendencies are

bleak.

Following the Hague Ministerial Declaration signed in March 2000, that identified

key challenges for water security, UNESCO is responsible for the World Water Assessment

Programme, that aims at: 1) assessing the state of world’s fresh water resources and eco-

system, 2) identify critical issues, 3) develop indicators and methodologies, 4) help countries

to develop their governance capabilities, and 5) publish a World Water Development Report

(WWDR). A special report was already prepared for the 2001 Bonn International Conference

on Fresh Water: A Preliminary Assessment of Policy Progress since Rio. It will be followed

by regular WWDR, targeting those involved in water-related strategies and policies. Instead

of covering the whole world, a limited set of case studies will be first presented to test

proposed methodologies. With the “Water for Peace” Programme, UNESCO is also involved

in the prevention and resolution of water-related conflicts.

As already mentioned, Agenda 21,that was adopted in “Rio 1992”, supports

integrated approaches to the development, management and use of water resources, with the

overall objective of satisfying “the freshwater needs of all countries for their sustainable

development”.18 UNDP is supporting developing countries to adopt and implement it.

FAO is providing technical assistance to many developing countries to improve

agricultural production and, as result, enhance food security. FAO work is strongly helped by

WMO that supplies information and predictions on air and weather conditions. WHO is also

helping poor countries to improve their diagnoses of health conditions, adopt standards,

prevent disease and deliver better cares to the people.

Considering OSCE countries, UNECE is a key-regional organisation strongly

involved in environmental matters, including the sustainable use of resources. With the

Aarhus “Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and

Access to Justice in Environmental Matters”, that was adopted in 1998, it promotes a new

kind of environment agreement, giving much importance to “participative democracy”.

Following the tragedy of September 11, UNECE and OSCE decided to increase their co-

operation on security matter, particularly to elaborate an “integrated policy approach to

security and development”.19

18 United Nations/Sustainable Development, Agenda 21, Ch. 18, Par. 18.7.


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The work of the UNECE on water issues started almost thirty five years ago, in 1968, when

the ECE Committee on Water Problems was set up to carry out and co-ordinate activities

concerning the rational use of waters. Over the course of the last decades it moved from

studies focused on measurement and quantitative analysis to a programme that reflected

concerns for water quality, particularly issues of a transboundary nature.20

The World Bank

The Bank’s water strategy was embodied in a document published in 1993. Since, the Bank’s

perspective has evolved to reflect growing concerns about mismanagement of so-called

“global water resources” and the need to better serve the poor. The Bank is asking borrowing

countries to reform water management institutions, revise policies and adjust planning

systems. In that respect, the Bank acknowledges that much importance should be given to

local contexts and sustainability. Reforms are also difficult and take time. Nevertheless, “the

prediction of a global water crisis makes it important for the Bank to reposition itself to meet

the challenge”.21

The Bank has used a mix of instruments to support developing countries: specific

investment lending, maintenance loans, sectoral adjustment loans, private sector participation

(PSP), etc. Beneficiary countries include India, China, Mexico and Brazil. The Bank is also

involved in the “Nile Basin Initiative” that involves, for the first time in history, 10 countries,

and underlines the importance of an “equitable utilisation” of the basin water resources.

The Bank has assessed the investments needed to be able to cope with water resource

problems. By 2025, $180 billions of annual investment will be needed, about twice and a half

the current level (Table 5). Such massive investments require radical reforms in most

developing countries to attract FDIs.

OECD

The Paris based organisation is possibly the world largest think-thank on economic issues.

One of the OECD Directorates is responsible for the environment. In May 1998, the OECD

Ministers agreed “that the achievement of sustainable development is a key priority for OECD

countries”.

19 UNECE, Press Release, 10 May 2002. 20 For more details, see Economic Commission For Europe, “Protection and Sustainable Use of Waters”, Water Series No.2, ECE/CEP/10, and Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and Lakes, ECE/MP:WAT/5,Geneva 29 August 2000.


18

Following the 1998 declaration, the OECD Secretariat has been working on a report,

Policies to Enhance Sustainable Development that was published in 2001. It focuses on policy

options, stressing some priority areas, from domestic and international perspectives. The

report underlines the risks of irreversible situations in terms natural resources depletion and

degradation. A set of measures is also put forward.

Broadly speaking, the measures proposed cover:

1) the use of price systems to encourage more rational behaviours from a long-term

perspective,

2) reforming governance to allow for integrative approaches and a better assessment of the

full consequences of policies,

3) the role of technology policies to favour environmentally-friendly growth,

4) the strengthening of globalisation tendencies to promote sustainable development world

wide.

The OECD is also working on indicators measuring progress toward sustainable development.

Considering water and referring to Agenda 21, it proposes reports on water conditions,

namely water stress and quality, from a comparative perspective. These documents advocate

policies, insisting on “getting the prices right”.22 Furthermore, more co-operation between

“upstream and downstream interests of transboundary water bodies” is recommended to avoid

discord.

Regarding developing countries, OECD activities concentrate on the evaluation of

the impact of climate changes, the linkages between growth, development and poverty, and

the formulation of sustainable development strategies and policies. Specific actions are

focusing on the poorest countries.

The OECD already completed studies on the state of the environment in transition

countries, including the role of public particiaption and international co-operation.23

Considering water, the OECD helps transition countries to design reforms for improving

21 George Keith Pitman, Bridging Troubled Water. Assessing the World Bank Water Resources Strategy, The World Bank, 2002. 22 OECD, Water Mnagement – Performances and Challenges in OECD Countries, 1998. 23 See: - Environment in the Transition to a Market Economy: Progress in Central and Eastern Europe and the NIS,

October 1999. - OECD Environmental Performance Reviews Russian Federation, 1999.


19

water supply and sanitation services in urban regions. That covers legislation, tariffs, social

aspects, consumer protection and the evaluation of performances.

With UNECE, the OECD is also supporting the Environment for Europe Process that

brings together organisations and aims at solving environmental problems within the

European Context. A major Conference will take place in Kyiv, Ukraine, next year.

Globalisation, WTO and Water

The new global economy offers plenty of opportunities for associating the private sector in

the fight against poverty and solving water problems. Private firms are led by profit. For

improving their performances, they invent and innovate, creating new technologies that may

help save scarce resources, including oil and water. For that purpose, they need the right

incentives, in terms of environmental legislation, taxation, pricing, and economic and political

conditions.

Developing countries are lacking resources and experience to address water issues in

the most efficient manner. For that reason, they should become more attractive for foreign

firms. The WTO framework may help to create a more conducive environment for FDIs in the

field of water management. That would definitely allow them to benefit from the best

available technology (BAT), while meeting their commitments in terms of intellectual

property rights. However, water distribution is still a major public service, subject to many

regulations and controls. The GATS agenda should perhaps be enlarged to include water

issues, as it was done for telecommunication. More realistic prices for water should also

stimulate more rational behaviours on both supply and demand sides (see Table 6).

Some developing and transition countries have not yet joined the WTO. Acceding to

the WTO may help to address water resource problems. For instance, considering Central

Asia, cotton growing absorbs a significant proportion of available water. Cotton prices may

also fluctuate and decline on world markets. The diversification of exports, with more

elaborated products such as textiles and clothing, requires better market access, what is

permitted by WTO membership, especially when the so-called “Multifibers Agreement” is

being phase out.

Globalisation is supported by trade liberation within the WTO framework. When

observing the strong linkage between liberalism and co-operation between nations (or peace),

or between protectionism and nationalism (or conflicts), one has another argument for

eliminating domestic monopolies in water matters and promoting genuine international

competition in the field of water supply.


20

International NGOs

Besides multilateral agencies, NGOs are playing a growing role in the field of water issues.

One key-international NGO is the World Water Council, that was founded after “Rio 1992”.

Its members include public institutions, private sector firms, UN organisations and other

NGOs. WWC is promoting awareness on critical water issues at all levels and in all sectors. It

aims at influencing major decisions related to water management. WWC is currently

preparing “Rio + 10” and the 3rd World Water Forum that will take place in Japan on March

2003.

Another important NGO is Global Water Partnership that gathers public and private

sectors, multilateral agencies and “others committed to the Dublin-Rio Principles”. UNESCO

is also working closely with Green Cross International, an NGO chaired by M. Gorbachev. It

supports co-operation between countries for improving trans-boundary water management

and, subsequently, suppressing causes of tensions and conflicts.

The World Resources Institute, a non-profit making research organisation, is a think

tank that aims at finding solutions to key-environmental problems, including water. The State

of the World is a reference regular publication of the Worldwatch Institute. The 2000 edition

was written under the direction of Lester Brown and contains information about the

limitations of irrigated agriculture.

Regional Approaches: The EU Experience

European integration is the most advanced, comprehensive and ambitious co-operation

scheme between sovereign nation-states. The first significant step was the April 1951 Paris

Treaty that established the European Coal and Steel Community between 6 members: France,

Germany, Italy and the 3 Benelux countries. It was complemented by the 1957 Rome Treaty,

which created the Common Market.

The EU is now a partial monetary union since the full and successful introduction of

the Euro in a majority of member states. Significant moves are also made toward the

definition and the implementation of a common foreign and defence policy, at least for a

“hard core” of countries.

The EU integration is a long-term economic and political process that combines both

deepening and enlargement, encompassing many dimensions, including the environment and

water. There are 6 EU Directives related to water policy. The latest and most important one is

the “Water Framework Directive” (2000/60/EC), that establishes a framework for acting in


21

water issues. It was adopted on 23 October 2000 and is the result of a process that started in

the 1970s. The aim the new Directive is to expand the scope of protection to all waters and

achieve a good status within a set timeframe, concentrating on river basins and involving civil

society.

With the “Europe Agreements” concluded between the EU and candidate countries,

and various partnership and co-operation agreements, the impact of European Directives go

far beyond the borders of the 15 member countries. Thus, they are part of the acquis

communautaire which all future members of the EU are expected to incorporate into their

own national legislation. Accordingly, EU water directives and related policy instruments can

be regarded as the core elements of a pan-european water policy still in the making.

The Role of the OSCE

The OSCE participating States are stressing the importance of democracy, human rights and

fundamental freedoms. Such institutions are essential for encouraging good governance and

the rule of law in all matters of public interests, including the environment and water in

particular.

Democracy means open political competition and free elections, which implies that

dissatisfied (and responsible) citizens can simply not re-elect leaders when they misconduct.

That could apply to environmental and water policies. For instance, democratic rules could

possibly terminate prestigious huge hydraulic schemes that may create additional external

debts not fully justified by any reasonable feasibility study.24 From that perspective, human

rights also refer to the satisfaction of basic needs, in terms of education and health, where

water and food security should appear as key-elements.

Freedoms are essential for access to information, allowing speeches and opposing

wrong policies without fearing arbitrary pressures and sanctions.

In that respect, the UNECE-based “Aarhus Convention” is strongly supported by

OSCE field presences, especially in Central Asia and the Caucasus. In Ukraine, the

Convention is already being used to address specific water pollution problems, with the

support of national authorities and NGO participation. Even in countries that are still lacking

full democratic institutions, the OSCE is able to enhance the environmental role of civil

society with the consent and backing of national governments.

24 That might the case of the so-called “Lake of the Golden Century”. See Daniel Linotte, “Water Resources in Central Asia. Addressing new Challenges and Risks”, Central Asia – Caucasus, John Hopkins University / School of Advanced International Studies, August 15, 2001.


22

Under Portuguese Chairmanship, the OSCE Secretariat and field presence could

initiate and successfully accomplish many activities addressing water issues. OSCE “water

diplomacy” is facilitating post-conflict reconciliation in South Eastern Europe, within the

framework of the Stability Pact. In the Caucasus, the preparation of the 10th OSCE Economic

Forum provided an opportunity to gather Armenians and Azeris and discuss common water

issues. Despite difficulties, these initiatives help to rebuild mutual understanding and trust,

and should ultimately contribute to lasting peace settlements.

Final Remarks and Conclusions

• Water resource problems cannot be seen in isolation. They are directly caused by the

degradation of the environment, in particular CO2 emissions and concentrations in the

atmosphere. Simulation models show that decades will be needed to reverse negative

tendencies. As indicated by the time it takes between awareness raising, the full

recognition of actual damages and future risks, and adequate reaction, a reversal could

eventually never happen, on the contrary.

• Water stress situations are also worsened by demographic trends, which points out to the

importance of promoting effective family planning and, above all, women education.

• For some regions, extreme water stress seems inevitable unless there is a significant

increase of resources for funding programmes, infrastructure and institutional reforms,

which absolutely requires attracting the private sector and FDIs. That also indicates the

need to fully recognise water as a commodity and involve the WTO.

• In some instances, there is still a substantial margin for raising the level of efficiency of

water uses, particularly in agriculture. Considering the huge estimates of needed annual

investments in the field of water, it is essential to adopt water-saving measures as soon as

possible. That may possibly render some costly water schemes and infrastructures

irrelevant.

• International assistance already plays a major role in fighting poverty and improving

water conditions. The EU experience shows the substantial benefits of regional integration


23

in all spheres, including the environment and water. It should serve as a model for all. The

OSCE is another example of co-operation, with precise standards in terms of political

institutional development and human rights. In co-operation with other IOs, including

UNECE, it is also engaged in environmental and water issues.

In conclusion, as Professor Aaron Wolf underlined on many occasions, critical water

issues offer unique opportunities for co-operation between communities and countries, and

therefore contribute to a more secured world.

[The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors only.]

Jean Michel Collette and Daniel Linotte

Annexes

Tables 1. Incomes per Capita and Environmental Sustainability Index – OSCE Countries 2. Water Use Indicators – OSCE Countries 3. World Population, 2000 and 2050 4. Some typical values of Insularity Index, Vulnerability Index and Protection Costs

(Consequences of Raising Sea Levels) 5. Investment Requirements to Address Water Needs 6. Water pricing


24

Figures 1. The Relationship between Incomes per Capita and the Environmental Sustainability Index 2. World Population (1950-2050) 3. World Carbon Emission by Region 4. Water Availability – Developed and Developing Countries 5. Water Vulnerability by Country – Global Perspective Table 1: Incomes per Capita and Environmental Sustainability Index – OSCE Countries (late 1990’s) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country (1) (2) Income ESI

per capita Rank PPP $

------------------------------------------------------------------------ Albania 2,892 78 Armenia 2,210 48 Austria 23,808 8 Azerbaijan 2,322 69 Belarus 6,518 57 Belgium 24,200 79 . Bulgaria 4,914 60 Canada 23,725 3 Croatia 6,915 39 Czech Republic 12,289 29 Denmark 24,280 10 Estonia 7,825 27 Finland 21,209 1 France 21,829 13 Germany 22,404 15 Greece 14,595 41 Hungary 10,479 21 Ireland 19180 17 Italy 20,751 37 Kazakhstan 4,408 91 Kyrgyz Republic 2,223 98


25

Latvia 5,938 32 Lithuania 6,093 23 Moldova 2,358 59 Netherlands 23,052 12 Norway 26,522 2 Poland 7,894 58 Portugal 15,147 20 Romania 5,647 80 Russia 6,339 33 Slovak Republic 9,811 18 Slovenia 15,062 24 Spain 16,730 25 Sweden 20,824 4 Switzerland 27,486 5 Turkey 6,126 70 Ukraine 3,142 110 UK 20,883 16 USA 30,600 11 Uzbekistan 2,042 90 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Bank, World Development Report 2000 – Attacking Poverty, Washington, 2001, and Columbia University. Remark: The table includes countries for which the above mentioned source provides relevant data. PPP = Purchasing Power Parity. Table 2: Water Use Indicators – OSCE countries (late 1990’s) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Region/ (1) (2) (3) (4) Country Water Uses Water uses Water uses Water uses per sector

% of total per capita per PPP $ Agric. Indus. Domestic resources Cu. Meters Cu. Meters % of total

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- North America USA 18.1 1659 0.05 27 65 8 Canada 1.6 1474 0.06 9 80 11 European Union and European Economic Space (former EFTA) Austria 2.7 281 0.01 9 60 31 Belgium 72.2 887 .0.06 4 85 11 Denmark 9.2 226 0.02 43 27 30 Finland 202 470 0.02 3 85 12 France 21.3 691 0.03 12 73 15 Germany 26 564 .03 0 86 14 Greece 10.2 669 0.05 81 3 16 Ireland 2.3 323 0.02 10 74 16 Italy 34.4 1001 0.05 45 37 18 Netherlands 8.6 499 0.02 34 61 5 Norway 0.5 443 0.02 8 72 20 Portugal 10.1 730 0.05 48 37 15 Spain 31.7 902 0.06 62 26 12 Sweden 1.5 302 0.01 9 55 36 Switzerland 4.9 365 0.01 0 58 42


26

UK 6.4 159 0.01 3 77 20 Central and Eastern Europe Bulgaria 6.8 1667 0.34 22 76 3 Czech Republic 15.8 246 0.02 2 57 41 Hungary 5.2 617 0.06 36 55 9 Poland 19.2 315 0.04 11 76 13 Romania 12.5 11.53 0.20 59 33 8 Baltic States Estonia 1.3 115 .0.02 3 85 12 Latvia 0.8 15 0.02 13 32 55 Lithuania 1 67 0.01 3 16 81 South Eastern Europe Albania 3.3 421 0.16 71 0 29 Slovenia 2.7 252 0.02 -- 50 50 Turkey 17.4 559 0.09 73 11 16 Western CIS Belarus 4.7 266 0.04 35 43 22 Ukraine 18.6 516 0.16 30 52 18 Moldova 25.3 689 0.29 26 65 9 Russia 1.7 521 0.08 20 62 18 Southern Caucasus Armenia 27.9 772 0.35 66 4 30 Azerbaijan 54.6 2092 0.90 70 25 5 Georgia 5.5 640 .021 59 20 21 Central Asia Kazakhstan 30.7 2158 0.49 81 17 2 Kyrgyz Republic 949 9536 4.29 94 3 3 Tajikistan 14.9 1940 1.98 92 4 4 Turkmenistan 52.3 5043 1.63 98 1 1 Uzbakistan 63.4 3471 1.70 94 2 4 Source: World Bank, World Development Report 2000 – Attacking Poverty, Washington, 2001, and Columbia University. Remark: The table includes countries for which the above mentioned source provides relevant data. PPP = Purchasing Power Parity.


27

Table 3: World Population, 2000 and 2050 ----------------------------------------------------------- Region/ Population Share Change % Year Million % 2000-2050 ----------------------------------------------------------- World 2000 6,080 100 2050 9,104 100 49.7 ----------------------------------------------------------- Developed Countries 2000 1,185 19.5 2050 1,218 13.4 2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------- Developing Countries 2000 4,894 80.5 2050 7,886 86.6 61.1 ----------------------------------------------------------- Source: U.S. Bureau of Census.


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Table 4. Some typical values of Insularity Index, Vulnerability Index and Protection Costs Country Insularity Index Vulnerability Index Protection cost (% GDP) Libya 0.0010 0.0030 0.08 Zaire 0.000016 0.031 0.12 US 0.0022 0.063 0.02 Sweden 0.0078 0.17 0.14 Nicaragua 0.0076 0.24 0.35 Belgium 0.0021 0.70 0.01 Italy 0.026 4.9 0.04 Netherlands 0.013 5.0 0.03 Greece 0.10 8.3 0.10 UK 0.051 12 0.02 Jamaica 0.028 21 0.19 Mauritius 0.096 52 0.15 Anguilla 0.67 77 10 Gaza strip 0.11 230 NA Singapore 0.31 1700 0.05 Tokelau 10.1 1500 11 Maldives 2.1 1800 34 Monaco 2.2 36000 0.13 Source: FAO. Data from Factbook (1997), UN 1996a UN 1997, median population scenario, as well as CZMS (1990) for the protection costs


29

Table 5: Investment Requirements to address Water Needs

Source: George Keith Pitman, Bridging Troubled Waters – Assessing the World Bank Water Resources Strategy, The World Bank, 2002.


30

Table 6: Water Pricing ------------------------------------------------------------------ Water Charges as Share of Households Income (%) Country Existing Prices Full Cost Tariff Denmark 0.8 0.9 France 1.1 1.5 Germany 1.0 1.2 Greece 0.4 1.6 Spain 0.4 1.2 UK 1.2 1.3 World Bank Guideline Maximum: 3.3. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Comparative Water Prices, 1999 Country Water Price USD/Cubic meter Germany 1.81 Denmark 1.61 Netherlands 1.19 France 1.17 UK 1.15 Spain 0.54 US 0.50 Canada 0.41 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Residential Water Price Elasticities Developed Country(ies)? Short-run -0.21 Long-run -0.45 In-house -0.27 Sprinkling -1.38 Winter -0.44 Summer -1.37 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: World Bank Website. End tables


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Figure 1 Source: www.ciesin.org/indicators/ESI/ESI_01.ppt

40000 3000020000100000

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

Canada

Russia UK

Italy

France

Germany

India

Japan

China

USA


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Figure 2


33

Figure 3

Source: cerfe.ucsd.edu/vlt/viewgraphs2002.html


34

Figure 4: Water Availability – Developed and Developing Countries

Source: George Keith Pitman, Bridging Troubled Waters – Assessing the World Bank Water Resources Strategy, The World Bank, 2002, p. 3.


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Figure 5: Water Vulnerability by Country – Global Perspective

Source: Olli Varis, Global Changes and Water Resources (Version 080501), Helsinki Institute of Technology, Water Resources Laboratory.


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End document

sustainable development, water and security (selected

Documents