Sustainable Transportation:Can the U. S. Become Independent of

Foreign Oil?

ByJoseph M. Norbeck

Yeager Families Professor of EngineeringDirector,

Environmental Research InstituteUniversity of California, Riverside

Randall Lewis Seminar SeriesFebruary 15, 2007

Outline

• Energy Utilization in US • Economic Impact of Imported Oil • Issues Related to Transportation• Alternative Fuels and Vehicle Technology• Pathways To Energy Independence• UCR Research in Energy• Conclusions and Recommendations

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Transportation is not the only energy user

US Petroleum Oil Imports

* Information provided by DOE/EIA

Top World Oil Consumers, 2005*

* Information provided by DOE/EIA

World Oil Consumption (with Projections)

* Information provided by DOE/EIA

Top World Oil Net Exporters

Non OPEC members

* Information provided by DOE/EIA

US Crude Oil Prices

US Spot Price FOB Weighted by Estimated Import Volume

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1978 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

Cru

de O

il Pr

ices

($/G

allo

n)

* Information provided by DOE/EIA

Transportation Energy Facts• Unstable global petroleum economy

– Over $60 per barrel crude in 2006• Cost of past 30 years of Middle East upheavals to U.S.

economy-$7 trillion • US spends over $120 billion a year on oil imports• Middle East has 70% of world’s oil reserves• US reserves is approximately 2% of total• US consumes more than 25 million barrels of petroleum

each day• Petroleum is not sustainable and will be depleted in future• Growth in China & India adds to global demand

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Global Auto Industry - Production(Thousand Unit)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

GDP/Cap. PPP (USD)

Vehi

cles

Per

100

0 Pe

rson

China(12)

Poland(345)

Brazil(119)

S. Korea(286)

UK(526)

Italy(667)

France(588)Germany(588)Japan(588)

US(816)

[California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit, 2000][California Department of Transportation]

California Population and VMT By Year

California Population and VMT

Approaches to Alternative Transportation Fuels

• Need to Understand the Magnitude of Problem– Need to Replace 25 Million Barrels/Day (1 Billion Gallons/Day)

• Solar and Wind Technologies Can Produce Electricity and Hydrogen from Water but Expensive

• Biomass is an efficient energy storage system—need to provide sufficient feedstock

• Coal, Municipal Solid Wastes and Agricultural Wastes are also attractive • Numerous conversion processes to make transportation fuels and energy

from biomass• Ethanol from sugar/starch• Cellulosic Ethanol• Biodiesel from vegetable oil or animal fats• Methanol• Fischer-Tropsch diesel• DME

What type of Synthetic Transportation Fuel?

• Liquid fuel is preferred– High energy density (Range)– Safety and storage– More convenient distribution– Fueling infrastructure in place– Engine technology is mature– Criteria Pollution Problem Solved with exception

of Heavy Duty Diesel Engines• Issue of Implementation• Combination of Advanced Technology and Clean Fuels

Alternative Fueled Vehicles• Alternative Fuels are not necessarily Sustainable • Base Feedstocks are usually petroleum based• Efforts toward AFVs began in 1980s

– Initial Motivation was Air Quality– Mostly Government Fleets

• Vehicle Technology Mature with exception of Hydrogen Powered Vehicles

• Major Effort in US to Aggressively Implement Ethanol Vehicles

• Gasoline Hybrids can run on Ethanol/Diesel

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

• Current Cost of Fuel Cell Technology is $3000/kW ($200K/vehicle)– Need to reduce cost to $30/kW in ten years

• Long term durability of fuel cell at required capacity needs significant technological breakthrough

• Intellectual Property Closely Guarded• Fueling Infrastructure for Public Acceptance may

be biggest barrier• Large Penetration of Vehicles Needed for Cost

Reduction

Conversion options• Present technologies

– Anaerobic Digestion– Fermentation for

ethanol production– Gasification using

additional oxygen• Dry feed stock

– Bio-diesel

• Future technologies– Enhanced fermentation

of cellulose & lignin– Advanced Gasification

• Steam Pyrolysis• Hydro-gasification• Co-feed all carbonaceous

urban & farm wastes• Synthetic diesel fuel

Need to Convert Entire Amount of Biomass

US Production Biodiesel and Ethanol

• Corn Ethanol Production Approximately 2.9 Billion Gallons/yearEquivalent to Approximately 2 Billion

Gallons/Gasoline (2 days supply)

• Biodiesel Production is Approximately 1 Billion Gallons/year

* Information provided by DOE/EIA

Biorefinery for Renewable Feedstocks to Fuels, Chemicals, Power, Food, and Feed

Hydrolysis

Lignocellulosics

Lignin

Sugars

ProteinFuel

ChemicalconversionFermentationChemical

conversionProcessing

Electricity

FoodFeed

FurfuralFuransGlycolsMethyl ethyl ketoneAdipic acidEthylenePropylene

Ethanol Citric acidGlycerol Fumaric acidLipids Lactic acidAcetone Propionic acidn-Butanol Succinic acidButanediol Itaconic acidIsopropanol Acetic acidButyric acid Acetaldehyde

PhenolsAromaticsDibasic acidsOlefinsDiesel fuel

From C Wyman 1990

Progress in Enzyme Based Technology for Cellulosic Ethanol

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Time

Bio

etha

nol c

ost,

$/ga

llon

CornEtOH Price

Based on historic estimates by NREL

1980 Now

Projected Cellulosic Ethanol Costs

1.18

0.500.34

0.00

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0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

Base Case AdvancedTechnology

Best Parameter

Cos

t, $/

gal

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Efficiency multiplier

Acr

es, m

illio

ns

0

50

100

150

200

250

Squa

re m

iles,

thou

sand

s

Not including residue use

Including residues

Land to Displace All U.S. Gasoline with Cellulosic Ethanol

Land idled by Federal Programs

CRP land

Based on Lynd

Total agricultural land area: >400 million acresTotal dry land area in US = 2.3 billion acresRhode Island dry land area = 0.669 million acresTexas dry land area = 167.6 million acresTotal land area in 50 mile radius = 5 million acres

Based on 1,000 gals/acre

World Recoverable Coal

* Information provided by IEA 2004

CE-CERT Process

• Carbon and water is converted to a synthetic fuel (cetane) and carbon dioxide at high pressure and Temperature

molkJCOlHCOHsC

/4335.8)(17)(5.24

23416

2

++→+

Reaction rate measurements

0

2

4

6

8

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12

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16

18

20

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24

26

600 670 770

Temperature (oC)

rate

con

stan

t of C

H4

(x 1

000)

(min

-1)

k1(CH4) k2(CH4) k3(CH4) k4(CH4)

k1 : He onlyk2 : H2 onlyk3 : He-water mixturek4 : H2-water mixture

CE-CERT Process for Producing F-T fuel

min0 20 40 60 80 100 120

counts

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

FID1 A, (060130\AIS10001.D)

min0 20 40 60 80 100 120

counts

0

250000

500000

750000

1000000

1250000

1500000

1750000

2000000

FID1 A, (060130\AIS10004.D)

1.0

11 1

.164

1.3

01

Commercial Diesel

F-T product Organic Portion

Feedstocks Evaluated

• Organic: Biomass– Vegetable (Wood, Agricultural Waste, Crops)– Animal (Enteric waste, Poultry, Food)

• Organic: Petroleum– Plastic– Polymers-rubber, tires– Paint Residues

• Organic- Fossil derived (Coal)

What makes CE-CERT Process Unique?

• Uses Water Slurry– Carrier for feedstock– Feedstock does not need to be dried– Reaction rate enhanced up to 300 times

• Self Sustaining Process – Internal Hydrogen Feedback– Net Exothermic Reaction

• Enables conversion of Renewable Resources as well as Coal

California’s Top 5 Producers of Carbonaceous Material (2003)

• Ideal for Distributed Generation– Power– Liquid Fuels– Chemicals– Co-production

Potential Fischer-Tropsch (FT) Production from Agriculture &

Forestry Residues

SMR to FTRAvailable Mass

(Mg a-1)Mass CH4

(M moles a-1)Mass CO

(M moles a-1)Mass CO2

(M moles a-1)COSMR

(M moles a-1)C9-C20 (Mg a-1)

Wax (Mg a-1)

Total Distillates (M bbl a-1)

9.9E+06 1.6E+05 8.1E+04 5.4E+04 1.5E+05 1.0E+06 4.0E+05 106.9

CA Agriculture Residues (2003)FTR ProductAvailability Steam Hydrogasification Data

SMR to FTRAvailable Mass

(Mg a-1)Mass CH4

(M moles a-1)Mass CO

(M moles a-1)Mass CO2

(M moles a-1)COSMR

(M moles a-1)C9-C20 (Mg a-1)

Wax (Mg a-1)

Total Distillates (M bbl a-1)

2.0E+07 3.4E+05 1.7E+05 1.1E+05 3.2E+05 2.1E+06 8.5E+05 226.4

CA Forestry Residues (2003)Availability Steam Hydrogasification Data FTR Product

Experimental SHR Yields

(CH4, CO, CO2)

SMR95% Conversion

CH4 CO

FTR 90% Conversion

CO FT Products (Distribution based

on ASPEN®

modeling)

CA Biomass

UCR Initiatives

• Development of Technical Foundation to Accelerate Emergence of Large Scale Biological Processing of Cellulosic Biomass to Commodity Products and Fuels

• Conversion of Biomass, Problematic Solid Wastes and Coal into and Diesel Fuel

• Commercial Facility within 5 years

Importance of Integrated Production of Ethanol and Diesel

• Production of diesel fuel from residual solids could compensate for lower yields of ethanol from softwoods

• Co-production of ethanol and diesel will service both spark and compression ignition engines while nearly eliminating net emissions of carbon dioxide

• Virtually nothing has been done on conversion of lignin and other solids left after ethanol production to diesel

• This project will have implications for other solid wastes such as municipal solid waste (MSW) and/or biosolids

Conclusions• Vehicle technology for alternative fuels is mature • Problems of Emissions from Spark Ignition Engines

Essentially Solved-Issue of Clean Fuel and Implementation

• Advanced thermo-chemical and biological conversion processes appear promising

• Combination of the two may be preferred • Availability of carbonaceous waste is sufficient to make

considerable impact in reducing imported fossil fuels • High potential “fuel crops” have been identified • Land mass required is modest for path to

independence

Conclusions• More research needs to be done to understand

different processes advantages and efficiencies • Sustainable energy supplies may be within reach by

next decade• Synthetic Gasoline, Ethanol, and Clean Synthetic

Diesel Fuel good bets for fuels of the future• Hydrogen Economy May Also be Coming• Changes in Lifestyle are An Absolute Necessity

What are Barriers?• Until recently, inadequate focus on all

renewable energy options by Federal Government

• Lack of a strategic vision by USDA and USDOE on defining agricultural sector’s role in energy arena– Corn Ethanol and Biodiesel not sufficient for

energy independence but get all attention– Cellulostic ethanol attractive but need funds

• Need Action Plan for developing and implementing new energy solutions

What Should Be Done?• Magnitude of Plan Requires Comprehensive Initiative

from Federal and State Governments• Decision Makers and General Public need to be

educated• Commercial Scale Processing Plants Need to be

Constructed with Combination of Equity Funding and Federal Assistance

• Plan needs to be NATIONAL PRIORITY• Current Administration Plans Appear Promising• Fund Joey and Charley’s Research at UCR