Synopsis of presentation

Impact of Climate Change on Grenada’s Coastal Zones

Justification for conducting Vulnerability Assessment on Grenada’s Coastal Zones

Methodology used

Problems and the way forward

Background information on Grenada, Carriacou and Petite Martinique

The small size of the island and affinity to and dependence of the inhabitants on the sea.

Growing coastal population and infrastructural development

The high cost associated with the construction of new coastal protection structures

To aid policy formulation and assist in structuring the coastal physical development of the island to ameliorate SLR repercussions

To estimate and determine the biophysical impact of SLR on socio-economic sectors and human population

Justification for conducting Vulnerability Assessment on Grenada’s Coastal Zones

ArcGIS 8 Development TeamMarch 2000 Source: ESRI Data & Maps CDCreated in ArcGIS 8 using ArcMap

Central America& Caribbean

0 100 200 30050

Miles

:Legend

!( Cities

Rivers

Administrative Units

Lakes

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

Caribbean Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Pacific Ocean

Gulfof

Mexico

Tropic of Cancer

Panama

Havana

Managua

San Juan

Kingston

San Jose

Belmopan

Guatemala

Tegucigalpa

San Salvador

Port-au-PrinceMexico

Cuba

Nicaragua

HondurasGuatemala

Panama

Haiti

Costa Rica

Belize

Dominican Republic

El Salvador

Jamaica Puerto Rico

Trinidad & Tobago

The Bahamas

Guadeloupe

Martinique

Dominica

St. Lucia

Barbados

GrenadaAruba

Virgin Is.

Netherlands Antilles

Cayman Is.

Antigua & BarbudaSt. Kitts & Nevis

Anguilla

Turks & Caicos Is.

United States

-90°

-90°

-80°

-80°

-70°

-70°

-60°

-60°

10

°

10

°

20

°

20

°

Robinson ProjectionCentral Meridian: -60.00

View of Pink Gin Beach showing a section of La Source Hotel.

SHELL gas plant, Grand Mal Bay, located in close proximity to beach

Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment was conducted under component 9 of the regional Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Project (CPACC). Results and findings were included in the first National Communication.

Main objective of CPACC is to support Caribbean countries in preparing to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change particularly sea level rise, in coastal and marine areas through vulnerability assessments, adaptation planning and capacity building linked to adaptation planning

Strengthen the regional capability for monitoring and analyzing climate and sea level dynamics and trends, seeking to determine the immediate and potential impacts of global climate change. Identify areas particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and sea level rise. Develop an integrated management and planning framework for cost effective response and adaptation to the impacts of climate change on coastal and marine areas.

Methodology used by the CPACC Pilot Study was based on the UNEP V&A methodology and utilized a staged approached, viz:

Stage One - Identification of problems and scope of analysis. Stage Two - Scenarios for Coastal Vulnerability Assessment. Stage Three - Impact Assessment. Stage Four - Autonomous and Planned Adaptation.

Biophysical Impact

Human Settlements

Water Resources

Tourism Recreation !nfrastructure Fishing Ports Historic/Cultural

Erosion 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 3

Inundation 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1

Eco-system Loss

2 None 2 None None 1 None 3

Salinization 2 2 3 None 3 None 3 3

1 = Major Impact; 2 = Significant Impact; 3 = Minor Impact

Grenada Screening Assessment Matrix

Vulnerability analysis focus on the Impact of sea level rise and storm surge and flooding on the following sectors

Impact on socio-economic activities.

Impact on critical infrastructure.

Beach erosion and inundation.

Impact on water resources, including potential for saline intrusion of the water table.

Impact on coastal ecosystems.

Review of institutional arrangement for responding to sea-level rise.

Scenarios for Coastal Vulnerability AssessmentThe scenarios used in the analysis were:Sea Level RiseSLR1 = 0.2 meters for 2020SLR2 = 0.5 meters for 2050SLR3 = 1 meter for 2100

100-year storm surge levelsSS1 = SSpx1.2 (assumes 20% increase)SS2 = SSp (assumes no changes)SS3 = SSpx0.8 (assumes 20% decrease)SS2 should be applied to three years into the futureSS1 and SS3 should be applied for the year 2050 and 2100

Vertical movementVM = 0 (assumes no vertical movement along the coast of Grenada)

These scenarios are consistent with the predictions for sea level rise in the IPCC Second Assessment Report

Storm Surge/Flooding Impacts Associated with HurricanesHURRICANE STRENGTH WIND SPEED (mph) PRESSURE (mb) STORM SURGE FLOODING

IMPACT

Category 1 74 – 95 > 980 4 – 5 ft

Category 2 96 – 110 965 – 979 6 – 8 ft 3 ft [1]

Category 3 111 – 130 945 – 964 9 – 12 ft 5 ft

Category 4 131 – 155 920 – 944 12 – 18 ft 10 ft

Category 5 >155 < 920 > 18 ft 15 ft

Source: National Hurricane Center

Year

2020 0.20 - 1 - 1.2 3.94

2050-1 0.50 1.2 - - 1.7 5.58

2050-2 0.50 - 1 - 1.5 4.92

2050-3 0.50 - - 0.8 1.3 4.27

2100-1 1.00 1.2 - - 2.2 7.22

2100-2 1.00 - 1 - 2 6.56

2100-3 1.00 - - 0.8 1.8 5.91

Flood Impact (ft)SLR (m) SS1 (m) SS2 (m) SS3 (m)Net storm

surge level (m)

Year

2020 0.20 - 1.52 - 1.72 5.64

2050-1 0.50 1.82 - - 2.32 7.61

2050-2 0.50 - 1.52 - 2.02 6.63

2050-3 0.50 - - 1.22 1.72 5.64

2100-1 1.00 1.82 - - 2.82 9.25

2100-2 1.00 - 1.52 - 2.52 8.27

2100-3 1.00 - - 1.22 2.22 7.28

Flood Impact (ft)SLR (m) SS1(m) SS2 (m) SS3 (m)Net storm

surge level (m)

Year Potential Storm Surge Impact 2020 3.94 – 5.64 ft 2050 4.27 – 7.61 ft 2100 5.91 - 9.25 ft

Flooding Impacts under CPACC Scenarios for 12 ft. Historical Storm Surge (5 ft Flooding)

THE CARTOGRAPHIC MODEL OF THE APPLICATION

The Vulnerability analysis was constrained by a number of factors

Availability Baseline DataBathymetry Data The unavailability of bathymetry data made it impossible to assess the full impacts of either sea level rise, or storm surges. This data on wave dynamics and wave energy was important to facilitate analysis of the erosion potential, and the run-off potential of the waves under the different scenarios. Its unavailability meant that the analysis that was done was a static flooding and inundation analysis. It also meant that the impacts of the various reefs and headlands that protect Grenada’s coasts on wave action and energy were not taken into consideration

Contour Maps – The unavailability of contour maps below the 25 ft. contour made it impossible to model any impacts within the 0 – 1 m range

Geo-referenced Cadastral Information – The unavailability of census or cadastral information for households, location of coastal infrastructure and levels for groundwater wells, in a format that could have been inputted into the GIS models limited the ability to assess socio-economic impacts.

Unavailability of Relevant Models The technical team did not have many sea-level rise models to work with. It therefore had to conduct most of its analyses from first principles, relying on the technical capacities of the sectoral consultants and their abilities to incorporate climate change considerations into their technical analyses.

Simulated beach erosion for Carriacou due to sea level rise

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Sea level rise (cm)

Per

cen

tag

e to

tal b

each

lo

ss

dL1

dL100

Storm surge impact on coastal Zone

Stage Four involves an assessment of adaptation options, which are feasible .

Autonomous Adaptation refers to responses that will happen spontaneously without policy intervention for example the moving inland of coastal wetlands.

Planned Adaptation refers to policy suggestions, which could be put in place as a result of the outputs vulnerability studies, for example setbacks for buildings or new building codes.

NEXT STEPSDespite its limitations, this Pilot Study has demonstrated that Grenada is very vulnerable to the potential negative impacts of climate change. It is important therefore that measures be initiated immediately to begin the process of adaptation to climate change.

Sensitization of Policy Makers and Key Stakeholders

It is important that the policy-makers and key stakeholders be sensitized to the potential consequences of climate change at the earliest opportunity. This is necessary, as the implementation of any response measures will require their approval and support

Public Awareness and EducationIt will facilitate their participation in the process of developing a national response strategy; and

It will provide a supportive basis for the implementation of national policies and measures initiated in response to the threat of climate change.

Development of an Adaptation Framework

The development of an Adaptation Framework, within the context of a National Climate Change Policy Framework, is therefore a necessary first step

Capacity Building to Enhance future V&A Analyses

This will require a strengthening of the capacity of the current national technical team in the short run and a broadening of the skill base to include other technical personnel in the medium to long term. Such capacity building should include.

Training in the use of modeling techniques relevant to the respective sectors.

Training in the establishment and use of systematic monitoring and observation processes to enhance data collection for their respective sectors.

Training in the assessment and analysis of climate change impacts, including the analysis of climate variability to assess its implications for understanding the longer-term impacts of climate change

Technical and human resource needsThe immediate technical needs include:

Technical and human resource needs (Technical needs)

An identification of the available models that can be used to further enhance the various components of the vulnerability and adaptation analysis.

An identification of the data needs required for the utilization of these models.

An identification and initiation of the systematic observation and monitoring processes required for the collection of the required data on a systematic basis.

An identification of all relevant equipment required for the data collection and analyses.

The establishment of an institutional framework for the management of the overall Vulnerability and Adaptation process

Human resource needs (capacity building at two levels) The capacity building needs for the members of the technical team include: Further training in the V&A methodologies that are relevant to their respective sectors. Training in appropriate V&A modeling techniques relevant to their respective sectors. Training in data collection and analysis techniques relevant to their respective sectors.

The capacity building for the managerial and technical personnel in the affected institutions include:

Understanding the causes and effects of climate change in general.

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on their respective sectors, the causes of the specific impacts and the options available for responding.

Training in techniques for monitoring and analysis of the impact of climate change on their sectors, including data collection and modeling techniques.

Training in implementing options for responding to climate change, including monitoring the impact of response measures that have been initiated. Support for integrating climate change considerations into the day-to-day management of their institutions and sectors.