GALAPAGOS

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NASA LCLUC Spring 2019 Science Team Meeting: Synthesis Studies

Synthesis of Drivers, Patterns, and Trajectories of LCLUC in Island Ecosystems

Stephen J. Walsh, PI

Lyle V. Jones Distinguished Professor Department of Geography

Director, Center for Galapagos Studies & Galapagos Science Center, San Cristobal Island

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Islands Science Team

Richard Bilsborrow, UNC-Chapel HillPhil Page, UNC-Chapel HillBrian Frizzelle, UNC-Chapel HillFrancisco Laso, UNC-Chapel HillLaura Brewington, East-West Center, HawaiiYang Shao, Virginia Tech UniversityHernando Mattei, University of Puerto Rico

GALAPAGOS

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Synthesize LCLUC for Global Islands

➢ Perform a meta-analysis of socio-economic, demographic, tourism,community infrastructure, geographic and biophysical drivers of LCLUC as wellas satellite imagery, analyses, and derived-products for global islands.

➢ Examine existing image archives for all available imagery for islands (e.g.,USGS Global Visualization Viewer, USGS EarthExplorer, NASA Earth Exchange).

➢ Assess primary (i.e., Hawaiian Islands, Galapagos Islands, and Puerto Rico),secondary (e.g., Fiji, Azores, Canary, Madagascar) islands that are informedthrough the meta-analysis, and tertiary sites for generalizability.

➢ Develop spatial/statistical rules and relationships for the social-ecologicaldrivers of LCLUC for islands; create dynamic systems models for the primaryset of islands, extended to the secondary set for testing; and generalize acrossdiverse island ecosystems using globally available, gridded data to create aglobal island template of LCLUC and social-ecological drivers.

GALAPAGOS

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GALAPAGOS

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GALAPAGOS

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Socio-Economic Searches (1988-2018)Keyword Examples & Tiers 2/1 Findings

(309 Papers)

➢ Search of Eight Databases – PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, GEOBASE, GeoRef, PAIS, IBSS, Environment Complete

➢ LCLUC (223/50)

➢ Agriculture, Deforestation, Reforestation (149/23)

➢ Population Migration & Fertility (81/15)

➢ Tourism & Household Impacts (99/20)

➢ Urbanization & Infrastructure (106/28)

➢ Climate Change (14/3)

➢ Trade (14)

➢ Econometric Modeling, Scenario System Modeling (164/34)

➢ Ecosystem Goods & Services (97)

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Remote Sensing of LCLUC (1988-2018)Keyword Examples & Tiers 2/1 Findings

(406 Papers)

➢ Categorization by Archipelago, Country, RS Data, Drivers, Methods & Products, Latitude/Longitude

➢ Papers Summarized by processes (e.g., deforestation) & variables (e.g., land tenure); analysis methods (e.g., logistic regression); findings & recommendations

➢ Satellites

➢ Classification

➢ Change-Detections

➢ Sensor Fusion

➢ Pixel vs. Object Based Image Analysis

➢ Time-Series Analysis

➢ Vegetation Indices

GALAPAGOS

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Global Islands – Studies & Papers

GALAPAGOS

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Southeast Asian – Studies & Papers by Island

GALAPAGOS

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Landsat Papers by Year

Orange – not sensor specific

GALAPAGOS

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Weigelt, P., Jetz, W., & Kreft, H. (2013). Bioclimatic and Physical Characterization of the World’s Islands. Proceedings of the

National Academy of Sciences, 110(38): 15307–15312.

➢ Bioclimatic and physical characterization of the world's islands –standardized dataset to perform a comprehensive global environmentalcharacterization for 17,883 of the world's marine islands >1 km2 (∼98% oftotal island area). We use island area, mean temperature, meanprecipitation, seasonality in temperature and precipitation, past climatechange velocity, elevation, isolation, and past connectivity as key islandcharacteristics and drivers of ecosystem processes.

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Number of Islands in our Study by Country, only Countries with >5 Islands

GALAPAGOS

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Number of Islands in our Study by Island Group/Archipelago, only Groups with >5 Islands

GALAPAGOS

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Distance to Mainland of Islands in our Study

GALAPAGOS

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Disaster-Related – Studies & Papers

GALAPAGOS

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Anthropogenic-Related – Studies & Papers

GALAPAGOS

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Stock-Flow Diagram of the Number of Yearly Tourist Arrivals & Resident Populations

.

GALAPAGOS

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P of P 3.0 (2017)C. Sampedro, F. Pizzitutti, D. Quiroga, S.J. Walsh, C.F. Mena 2018 ” Food Supply System Dynamics in in the Galapagos Islands: Agriculture, Livestock, and Imports”, in press. Applied Geography.

1. Food Security

P of P 4.0 (2019)Generalizability of Core Model and Development of Modular Subsystems by Island Types & Contexts

P of P 2.0 (2016)Espin, P., Mena, C.F., Pizzitutti, F. (2018). A Model-Based Approach to Study Tourism Sustainability in an Island Environment: The Case of Galapagos Islands. Urban Galapagos: Transition to Sustainability in Complex Adaptive Systems , Springer Nature.

1. Employment & Migration

P of P 1.0 (2013)Pizzitutti, F., Walsh, S.J., Rindfuss, R.R., Reck, G., Quiroga, D., Tippett, R., Mena, C.F. (2016). Scenario Planning for Tourism Management: A Participatory and System Dynamics Model Applied to the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador. Journal of Sustainable Tourism.

Pizzitutti, F., Mena, C.F., Walsh, S.J. (2014). Modeling Tourism in the Galapagos Islands: An Agent Based Model Approach. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (17(1).

Touristic arrivals1. Resident2. Natural environment3. Infrastructure4. Transports5. Solid wastes6. Energy7. Land use8. Protected areas carrying capacity

P of P Models - Taxonomy

Tourism

Residents

Em p loym en t

M ig ration

Land Use Solid W astes

In frastructures

NaturalEn vironm en t

Energ y

Tran sp orts

Food SecurityW ater

Protected Areascarryin g cap acity

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Tourism is the Main Driver of change in Galapagos; Impacts the Resident Population through

Migration

GALAPAGOS

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NUMBER OF TOURISTS SINCE1979:

3.3 M

TOURISM GROWTH RATE IN THE LAST 10

YEARS:

7.2%

FOREIGN TOURISTS:

69%

DOMESTIC TOURISTS:

31%

218,365Tourists

2015

Analysis by tourist typology shows that the increase of tourist arrivals in the last 7 years is due exclusively to the increase of land-based tourism.

Tourism Trends in Galapagos

foreign

0

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

180,000

210,000

240,000

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Yearly touristic arrivals in Galapagos

Extranjeros

Nacionales

Total

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Scenario 2035 Change

High touristic growth

86,861 +160%+8.1% /year

Moderate touristic growth

60,680 +81%+4% /year

Zero touristic growth

50,927 +52%+3% /year

Fluctuating population= residents + tourists in Galápagos at the same time

Year 2015: 33,453 people

Scenario 2035 Change

High touristic growth

15,927 +361%+18% /year

Moderate touristic growth

6,910 +100%+5% /year

Zero touristic growth

3,947 +14%+0.7% /year

Tourists at the same timeYear 2015: 3,460 people

Outcomes – Fluctuating Population

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Model Processes

tourist

demand of labor

unemployment ratio

immigration

population

labor forcesupply

+

-

+

+

+

tourism revenuesper capita

pressure toincrease tourism

-

-

+

R1

tourism-population

growth loop 1

R4

labor demand -immigration loop 4

B

labor supply -immigration loop

touristsexpenditures

+

+

emigration

+

-

R6

labor demand -

emigration loop

B

tourism

expenditures loop

R5

tourism-population

growth loop 2

Ecuadorunemployment

laboravailability

-

+

-

R3

tourism-populationgrowth loop 3

R2

labor demand -immigration loop 5

-

unemployment

-

+

Tourism, population and labor dynamics

Additional subsystems:• Population & employment• Tourism expenditures• Tourism and natural

capital erosion

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Model Processes

Additional Subsystems:Natural capital exhaustion

tourist

demand of labor

unemployment ratio

immigration

population

labor forcesupply

invasivespecies

naturalattractiveness

erosion

desiredurban land

urbanizationrate

urban land

carrying capacitysaturation

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+ +

+

-

tourism revenuesper capita

pressure toincrease tourism

-

-

+

R1

tourism-population

growth loop 1

R4

labor demand -immigration loop 4

B

labor supply -

immigration loop

B

urbanizationloop

CC saturationloop

B

B1

uniqueness of

natural capitalerosion loop 1

B5

landtransformation

loop 5 touristsexpenditures

+

+

emigration

+

-

R6

B

tourismexpenditures loop

R5

Ecuadorunemployment

laboravailability

-

+

-

R3

R2

-

unemployment

-

+

+

B4

uniqueness of naturalcapital erosion loop 4

naturalcoverage

-

-

B2

uniqueness of naturalcapital erosion loop 2

B3

uniqueness of naturalcapital erosion loop 3

B6

land transformationloop 6

B7

land transformationloop 7

GALAPAGOS

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NativePrimary ecosystems, Beaches

AgriculturalSubsistence Crops, Cash Crops,Trees cultivationsAbandoned lands

InfrastructuresNot urban roads, Ports, Airports, Landfills, Mines

UrbanHouses, Sport infrastructures, Transport infrastructure, Production Plants

Classes of Land CoverTypes of Land cover

Drivers of change

GALAPAGOS

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Classes of Drivers of Land Cover ChangeTypes of Drivers of Land Cover Change

Primary Drivers (determining when, why and how changes happen)

• Socioeconomic: Demography (growth, migration, density, distribution (rural-urban),

transition rates, temporary migrants, vulnerability indicators), Economy (labor market, tourism, import-export, production, illegal activities , etc.)

• Biophysical: Climate (hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, ENSO), Climate Change (droughts, costal

line erosion, costal storms), Volcanoes, Fire, Mineral Resources, Natural capital, Invasive Species

• Management: Government interventions (economy, agriculture policies, nature conservation

public policies), Private interventions (Natural Reserves)

• Exogenous: Geographic accessibility and connectivity, Global markets (demands for import

and export, investments), Main land of reference socioeconomic indexes, biophysical and political conditions

Secondary Drivers (determining where changes happen -> important to be included only in a

spatially explicit model): roads, rivers, topography, urban areas, coasts, soil fertility

Limiting Drivers (determining thresholds of change): soil fertility, topography, total island surface,

areas suitable for infrastructures, climate, natural capital, etc.

GALAPAGOS

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System Dynamics model of LCLUC in island ecosystem first draftsLevel 0 diagramGalapagos case

study• Governmental

policies drivers that are not represented explicitly

• Exported to “development stage” islands types

p op ulation

tourism

+

demand oflabor

+

imm ig ration

em ig ration

+

-

+-

m ain lan dunem p loym en t

+

natural capital-

-

ag riculturelabor

-

cl im atech an g e

-Costal erosion +

demand forurban area

urb an lan d

n ative lan d-

+

+

+

ag ricultural

lan d

-

demand forlocal food

+

+

demand forinfrastructures

+

in frastructures

+

local fisheries+

-

-

in vestim en ts incash crop s

+

+

-

ag ricultural areasabandonement

-

invasive flora+

Volcan icactivity

+

invasive fauna

-

+

Privatein terven tion s

+

-

-

-

protected areascarrying capacity

saturation+

-

GALAPAGOS

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Model Transfers from Island to Island

• Matrix of drivers of change can be tuned to switch on and off to reflect different island typologies.

• Galapagos Islands can be the prototype of the “development stage” type of island. Can we define types of islands depending on the development stage in a generalized model of islands development where tourism is substituted with economic development? Hawaiian Islands may be in the stagnation stage? What about Puerto Rico? Can we identify islands in the decline stage?

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

Year

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

Hawaii

Visitors Residents