synthesis report on ten asean countries disaster risk assessment

8/2/2019 Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN Countries Disaster Risk Assessment

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Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN

Countries Disaster Risks Assessment

December 2010ASEAN Disaster Risk Management Initiative


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The countries o the Association o SoutheastAsian Nations (ASEAN), which comprises Brunei,Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, isgeographically located in one o the most disasterprone regions o the world. The ASEAN regionsits between several tectonic plates causingearthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis.The region is also located in between two greatoceans namely the Pacifc and the Indian oceans

causing seasonal typhoons and in some areas,tsunamis. The countries o the region have ahistory o devastating disasters that have causedeconomic and human losses across the region.Almost all types o natural hazards are present,including typhoons (strong tropical cyclones),oods, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions,landslides, orest-fres, and epidemics thatthreaten lie and property, and droughts that leaveserious lingering eects.

Typhoons are the most prevalent hazard inthe region, causing destruction to human lie,buildings, agriculture and inrastructure alike,while causing ooding and landslides/mudslides.The region provides compelling evidence o thedestructive power o such disasters. For example,the recent tropical cyclone Nargis o May 2008in Myanmar killed over 133 thousand people,aected over 2.4 million people and caused anestimated economic loss o over $ 4 billion. Over600 thousand hectares o agriculture land was

ooded, killing about 50 per cent o the draughtanimals. In the same year, on June 21, 2008,Typhoon Fenghsen in the Philippines killed 573and aected at least 4 million people in just ourhours. In October 2009, cyclone Pepang (Parma)in the Philippines killed 539 people, aected 4.5million and caused an estimated economic loss o$592 million.

Some o the major disasters o recent times in theregion are: the December 26, 2004 Indian Oceantsunami, September 16, 1990 Luzon earthquake(Philippines), May 26, 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake(Indonesia), June 1991 volcanic eruption o MountPinatubo (Philippines), 2005 (Thailand), and 1997

(Vietnam) droughts, September 2009 cycloneKetsana (known as Ondoy in the Philippines),catastrophic ood o October 2008, and January2007 ood (Vietnam), September 1997 orest-fre(Indonesia) and many others. Climate change isexpected to exacerbate disasters associated withhydro-meteorological hazards.

Oten these disasters transcend national bordersand overwhelm the capacities o individual

countries to manage them. Most countries inthe region have limited fnancial resources andphysical resilience. Furthermore, the level opreparedness and prevention varies rom countryto country and regional cooperation does notexist to the extent necessary. Because o this highvulnerability and the relatively small size o mosto the ASEAN countries, it will be more efcientand economically prudent or the countries tocooperate in the areas o civil protection, anddisaster preparedness and prevention.

With the aim o reducing ASEANs vulnerabilityto the risk o disasters, the World Bank, UnitedNations International Strategy or DisasterReduction (UNISDR), through the Global Facilityor Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR), and incollaboration with other international partnershave started support or implementing theASEAN Agreement or Disaster ManagementEmergency Response (AADMER) to promotesustainable development in ASEAN region. The

AADMER is a regional legally binding agreementthat binds ASEAN Member States together topromote regional cooperation and collaborationin reducing disaster losses and intensiying jointemergency response to disasters in the ASEANregion. AADMER is also ASEANs afrmation o itscommitment to the Hyogo Framework or Action2005-2015 (HFA). The HFA, endorsed by 168countries, is coordinated by UNISDR to providenations and communities the roadmap to disaster-proo the signifcant development gains.

To support ASEAN, the World Bank, UNISDRand ASEAN secretariat signed a tripartiteMemorandum o Cooperation (MoC) on disaster

Preface


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UNISDR and the World Bank would like to thankMr. Sushil Gupta (RMSI), the main author o thisreview.

Special thanks or the guidance and expertiseprovided are also extended to: UNISDR and TheWorld Team

This study has been possible thanks to thecontributions o several national and regional

interlocutors.

Acknowledgments

National interlocutors:

Brunei: Mr. Yaha bin Haji Abdul Rahman, Director, NDMCCambodia: Mr. Peou Samy, Secretary General, NCDMIndonesia: Mr. Sugeng Tri Utomo, Deputy, BNPBLaos: Mr. Vilayphong Sisomvang, Head, NDMOMalaysia: Hon. Datuk Mohamed Thajudeen Abdul Wahab, Secretary, NSCMyanmar: Mr. Soe Aung, Director General, RRDPhilippines: Mr. Ronald Ignacio Flores, Director/ Civil Deense Executive Ofcer, NDCC

Singapore: Ms. Lim Lay Eng, Senior Meteorological Ofcer, NEAThailand: Mr. Wiboon Sanguanpong, Director General, DDPMVietnam: Mr. Nguyen Xuan Dieu, Chie, CCFSC


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Table of Contents

Preface i

Acknowledgments iii

Table of Contents iv

Executive Summary 11.1 Key findings 2

1.2 Way forward 4

1.3 Limitations of the Study 4

1.4 Report structure 5

Risk Assessment: An Overview 7

The Study Area 9

Methodology 114.1 Data review 11

4.2 Hazard risk and vulnerability estimates 15

4.3 Risk assessment 15

4.4 Presentation of results 16

Country Risk Profiles 175.1 Brunei Darussalam 18

5.2 Cambodia 21

5.3 Indonesia 25

5.4 Lao PDR 29

5.5 Malaysia 33

5.6 Myanmar 37

5.7 Philippines 41

5.8 Singapore 455.9 Thailand 48

5.10 Vietnam 52

ASEAN Regional Profile 576.1 Overview 57

6.2 Regional setting 58

6.3 Socio-economic setting 59

6.4 Disasters overview 59

6.6 Disaster risk profile 78

6.7 Social and economic vulnerability analysis 79


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v

Trans-boundary Disaster Risks and their Effects 837.1 Indian Ocean Tsunami, 2004 83

7.2 2004-05 Drought in Southeast Asia 85

7.3 Mekong Flooding and Transboundary Water Dispute 85

7.4 Typhoon Ketsana, September 2009 88

7.5 1997-98 Southeast Asian Haze 89

Population Growth and Economic Highlights 918.1 Brunei 91

8.2 Cambodia 92

8.3 Indonesia 92

8.4 Laos 93

8.5 Malaysia 94

8.6 Myanmar 94

8.7 Philippines 96

8.8 Singapore 96

8.9 Thailand 97

8.10 Vietnam 98

Climate Change Assessment 1019.1 Climate change trends from climate models 101

9.2 Observed and Projected climate change in ASEAN 107

9.3 Climate change impacts on ASEAN 115

Hazard Risk Management Framework Status of ASEAN Countries 117

Priority Areas for Detailed Risk Assessments 11911.1 Selection of indicators to define priority areas 119

11.2 Population at risk 119

Conclusions and Recommendations 12912.1 Conclusions 129

12.2 Recommendations 131

References 135

Relevant Internet Sites 142


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List of Figures


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List of Tables


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Abbreviations, Acronyms and Symbols

AADMER ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and EmergencyAAL Average Annual LossACDM ASEAN Committee on Disaster ManagementADB Asian Development BankADPC Asian Disaster Preparedness CenterADRC Asian Disaster Reduction CenterARPDM ASEAN Regional Programme on Disaster ManagementASC Asian Seismological CommissionASEAN Association o Southeast Asian NationsBAU Business-As-Usual

CRED Centre or Research on the Epidemiology o DisastersDLNA Damage, Loss and Needs AssessmentDMP Disaster Management PlanDRI Disaster Risk IndexDRM Disaster Risk ManagementDRR Disaster Risk ReductionEM-DAT Emergency Events Database, developed by the Ofce o US Foreign Disaster

Assistance and the Centre or Research on the Epidemiology o DisastersENSO El Nio Southern OscillationERAT ASEAN Emergency Rapid Assessment TeamESCAP Economic and Social Commission or Asia and the Pacifc

EU European UnionEV Economic VulnerabilityGCM Global Circulation ModelGDP Gross Domestic ProductGEF Global Environment FacilityGFDRR Global Facility or Disaster Reduction and RecoveryGHG Greenhouse GasesGIS Geographic Inormation SystemGLOF Glacial Lake OutburstGNI Gross National IncomeGNP Gross National Product

GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard ProgramHDA Human Development IndexHFA Hyogo Framework or Action 2005-2015IFRC International Federation o Red Cross and Red Crescent SocietiesIIEES International Institute o Earthquake Engineering and SeismologyINCEDE International Center or Disaster-Mitigation EngineeringIMF International Monetary FundITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence ZoneJICA Japan International Cooperation AgencyMDG Millennium Development GoalsMDRD Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction into DevelopmentMoC Memorandum o CooperationMRC Mekong River CommissionMRI Meteorological Research InstituteMSL Mean Sea Level


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Synthesis Reportx

NGDC National Geophysical Data CentreNGI Norwegian Geotechnical InstituteOFDA Ofce o the US Foreign Disaster AssistancePDNA Post-Disaster Needs AssessmentPDR Peoples Democratic RepublicPGA Peak Ground AccelerationPRECIS Providing Regional Climates or Impact StudiesRCM Regional Circulation ModelRSV Relative Social VulnerabilitySDC Swiss Agency or Development and Cooperation

SIC Scientifc Inormation CenterSIDA Swedish International Development Cooperation AgencySV Social VulnerabilityTDRM Total Disaster Risk ManagementUN United NationsUNDAC United Nations Disaster Assessment and CoordinationUN DESA United Nations Department o Economic and Social AairsUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUNEP United Nations Environmental ProgrammeUNICEF United Nations Childrens Fund

UNISDR United Nations International Strategy or Disaster ReductionUNOCHA United Nations Ofce or the Coordination o Humanitarian AairsUSAID United States Agency or International DevelopmentWB World BankWMO World Meteorological OrganizationWSSI World Seismic Saety Initiative

$ US dollar% per centC degree Celsius

cc cubic centimetrecm centimetrecu m cubic meterha hectareskg kilogramkg/ha kilogram per hectarekm kilometrekm/h kilometre per hourm meterMW megawattppm parts per millionsq km square kilometre


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This synthesis report on ASEAN disaster risks hasbeen prepared by carrying out a desk review oalready available reports, studies, maps, analysesand assessments regarding disaster risks at thecountry and regional levels within the scope o thetripartite Memorandum o Cooperation (MoC) onDisaster Risk Reduction (DRR), between ASEANSecretariat, the UNISDR and the World Bank.The MoC on DRR is a part o ASEAN Agreementor Disaster Management Emergency Response

(AADMER), which is in line with the Hyogo Frame-work or Action 2005 2015 (HFA). The objectiveo this synthesis report is to carry a simplifedquantitative risk assessment to determine thesocial and economic loss potentials and the likeli-hood o occurrence o dierent hazards at countryand regional levels.

The review analyses and assesses disaster risk atcountry and regional levels, ocusing on naturalhazards such as earthquakes, tropical cyclonic

storms (typhoons), oods, landslides, tsunamis,droughts, and orest fres. It analyses trans-boundary disaster risks (common risks) and theireects, and projected losses in the absence omitigation measures (Average Annual Loss, AALand economic losses or dierent probabilitieso exceedance). The review also analyses climatechange assessment, economic developments, andurban expansion and rural development in ASEANcountries.

ASEAN consists o the ten ollowing countries -Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia,Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and

Vietnam. It covers a total land area o 4.48 millionsq km and has a population o 593 million (2009).The Peoples Republic o China borders the regionto the north, the Pacifc Ocean and Papua NewGuinea to the east, Australia to the southeast,the Indian Ocean to the south, Bay o Bengal andAndaman-Nicobar Islands (India) to the west andIndia and Bangladesh to the northwest.

The ASEAN region is geographically diverse andincludes high hills and rugged mountains, elevat-ed plateaus, highlands, oodplains, coastal plains

and deltas. It is home to large river systems suchas the Mekong and Ayeyarwady, and major waterbodies such as the Tonle Sap and Lake Toba, thelatter being the largest volcanic lake in ASEANregion. Most part o ASEAN has hot and humidtropical climate, an exception being the mountain-ous areas in the Indochina Peninsula that experi-ence a milder temperature and drier landscape.

A major part o the population in the region lives

in riverine plains, delta and coastal plains. Hence,the most populous areas are subjected to periodicand extensive hazards such as ood, tsunami, andcyclone. Moreover, the unique geographic and cli-matic conditions make ASEAN one o the worldsmost vulnerable regions to disasters caused bynatural hazards as well as climate change impact.Almost every year, powerul typhoons that causeooding and landslides batter the region. In ad-dition, the region aces risk rom earthquakes,volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, and orest fres that

threaten lie and property, and drought that leavesserious lingering eects.

A review o the existing hazard, vulnerability andeconomic loss data at country level was per-ormed. The main data sources consulted includethe CRED EM-DAT, ADRC, NGDC, GSHAP, MRC,WAMIS, DWR, Munich Re, World Bank, UNISDR,GAR, InTerragate, IFNet, and CCFSC, DESINVEN-TAR, country specifc reports and research paperswere also reviewed.

The socio-economic data was analyzed alongwith the mortality risk or various hazards to quan-tiy the vulnerability (ISDR, 2009). As most o thedata available in the public domain are related todisasters rather than hazard risk, this study reliedon the Global Assessment Report (GAR) previewplatorm database (GAR, 2009) or mortality risk orvarious hazards such as earthquake, ood, land-slide, cyclone and drought; GSHAP hazard dataor earthquake and NGI hazard data or landslide.The GAR preview platorm (http://preview.grid.unep.ch) has created spatial data or the entireworld using simplifed modeling techniques. Thehazard risk data or the region was extracted rom

1Executive Summary


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this global data and graded into our/fve catego-ries o very high, high, medium and low/very lowor earthquake, ood, landslide, drought, cyclonicstorm, and multi-hazards. The hazard risk datawere analyzed along with grid based populationdata to assess the population exposed to varioushazard risks.

To analyze risk profles at country and regional lev-els, reported economic disaster data (1970-2009)

have been used. However, or earthquake andtsunami (1900-2009), a longer duration o disasterdata have been used. Analyses o projected lossesin the absence o mitigation measures expressedin the orm o average annual loss (AAL) and eco-nomic loss potential or selected probabilities oexceedance have been carried out.

1.1 Key findings

Disasters

The disasters risk assessment analyses show thatin terms o human casualties, cyclonic storms arethe dominant disaster risk in ASEAN ollowed byearthquakes, tsunamis, oods, epidemics, land-slides, droughts, volcanic eruptions and orest-fres. During the last 40 years (1970-2009), 1,211reported disasters have caused over 414,900deaths. Out o the reported disasters, 36 per centwere oods, 32 per cent were cyclonic storms, 9per cent were earthquakes, 8 per cent were epi-demics, and 7 per cent were landslides. Cyclones

(storms) caused the maximum number o deaths:over 184,000, ollowed by earthquakes (114,000)and tsunamis (83,600).

VulnerabilityThe social vulnerability (SV) ranking o each coun-try was estimated based on the average numbero people killed per year per million (relative socialvulnerability). The analysis o disaster data or theperiod 1970-2009 shows that the average numbero people killed per year per million or ASEAN

region is 17.5. In Myanmar, the relative SV is morethan 3.5 times that o Indonesia (the second high-est). In terms o relative SV ranking, Myanmar hasthe highest ranking ollowed by Indonesia, Philip-

pines, Thailand, Vietnam, Lao PDR, Cambodia,and Malaysia. Due to paucity o disaster loss data,the SV ranking could not be carried out or Bruneiand Singapore. The quantitative risk assessmentperormed in this study confrms the ollowing riskpatterns or the ASEAN countries:

Cambodia: oods represent the dominantrisk ollowed by droughts

Indonesia: orest (wild) fres, earthquakes

and tsunamis, and oods representthe dominant risks ollowed by volcanoes,droughts, and landslides

Lao PDR: cyclonic storms, and oods arethe dominant risks ollowed by droughts

Malaysia: oods are the dominant risksollowed by orest fres, tsunamis, and cyclonic storms

Myanmar: cyclonic storms are thedominant risk ollowed by tsunamis, oodsand orest-fres

Philippines: typhoons (cyclonic storms) arethe dominant risk ollowed by oods, earth-quakes; volcanoes, droughts, and landslides

Thailand: oods are the dominant risk ol-lowed by tsunamis, cyclonic storms, anddroughts

Vietnam: cyclonic storms, and oods are thedominant risk ollowed by droughts, andlandslides

Brunei and Singapore: no disaster data isavailable

Disasters can have enormous economic conse-quences. The quantitative risk assessment per-ormed in this study confrms that a catastrophicevent with a 200-year return period (0.5 per centannual probability o exceedance) would have amajor impact on ASEAN countries economies,some o which are already ragile. To gauge thepotential economic impact, the economic vulner-ability (EV) ranking o each country has been esti-mated in terms o likely economic losses that anevent with a 200-year return period would causeas a percentage o that countrys Gross DomesticProduct (GDP PPP) (Figure A). According to thiscategorization, Myanmar has the highest EV rank-


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ing in the region, ollowed in descending order byLaos, Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines,Thailand, and Malaysia.

Due to paucity o economic loss disaster data, theAverage Annual Loss (AAL) and economic lossanalysis or dierent probabilities o exceedancecould not be carried out or Brunei and Singapore.

Urban areas are especially vulnerable to the ad-

verse impact o disasters. Capital cities: Manila,Jakarta, Bangkok, Ha Noi, and Singapore areamongst the most populated cities in the ASEANregion and all are undergoing intense economictransormation. In terms o earthquake risk, Manilais at highest risk ollowed by Jakarta and Bangkok.In terms o ood risk, Manila is also at highestrisk ollowed by Jakarta, Bangkok, and Ha Noi.In terms o tropical cyclonic risk, Manila is also athighest risk ollowed by Ha Noi, and Jakarta. Interms o overall risks rom these hazards, Manila is

at highest risk, ollowed by Jakarta, Bangkok, HaNoi, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Naypyidaw, PhnomPenh, Vientiane, and Bandar Seri Begawan.

Climate change impactClimate change is considered as one o the mostsignifcant developmental challenges conront-ing ASEAN nations in the 21st century. Accord-ing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Executive Summary

Change (IPCC, 2007) reports, the mean surace airtemperature in Southeast Asia increased at therate o 0.1 0.3C per decade between 1951 and2000. Following the global trend, the mean sealevel is projected to rise by 40 cm on average by2100 in comparison to 1990. Moreover, the regionexperiences decreasing rainall and increasingsea levels (13 mm per year). The requencies oextreme weather events like heat waves, heavyprecipitation, and tropical cyclones have been

increasing considerably. These climatic changeshave brought massive ooding, landslides, anddroughts in dierent regions and have causedextensive damage to property, assets, and humanlie. High concentration o population and intenseeconomic activities in coastal areas, and a highdependence on agriculture and orestry in manycountries o the region are making the situationmore complex and may hinder the regions sus-tainable development.

Global Circulation Models addressing climatechange do not present a uniorm view o theimpact o climate change on ASEAN as they havelimited capabilities to orecast the present me-teorological patterns. A high-resolution climatechange model o the region appears to be morestable and predicts a temperature increase o 3 to4 0C over the next 80 years.

Economic Loss Potential for annual probability of exceedance of 0.5 per centFigure A


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Developing countries are especially vulnerableto climate change because o their geographicexposure, low incomes, and greater reliance onclimate sensitive sectors such as agriculture. Thecost o climate change in ASEAN could be as highas a 6-7 per cent loss in GDP by 2100 compared towhat could have been achieved in a world withoutclimate change.

1.2 Way forward

Based on the analyses, the review makes the ol-lowing recommendations to reduce disaster risk inASEAN:Additional analysesThree levels o analyses are envisioned to refnethe results presented in this report. These analy-ses should emphasize more on oods, typhoons(tropical cyclonic storms), and earthquakes andtsunamis, as they are the most damaging quick-onset disasters.

Level 1: An analysis similar to this one based onlyon historical records should be repeated at ahigher level o resolution. Instead o limiting theresolution o the analysis at the country level, ahigh-resolution grid (or example a 100-km grid)should be considered. Risk aggregation by hazardtype and area would provide, at low cost, a muchmore refned picture o the risk than is oered bythe present analysis.

Level 2: On a second level, using the same meth-

odology, worst-case scenarios should be consid-ered or the highly populated cities. This analysiswould provide a reasonable quantifcation o loss,given the occurrence o a particular disaster sce-nario. The uncertainty around the risk could thenbe bracketed by scientifcally estimating the rangeo probability o occurrence o such scenarios.Such worst-case scenario studies can be used inpreparation o city specifc Disaster ManagementPlans (DMP).

Level 3: On a third level, ully probabilistic analy-sis containing all the elements o standard riskanalysis should be perormed or the hazards andregions identifed as high risk in levels 1 and 2.

Drought hazard should be addressed in thecontext o climate change and long-term adapta-tion strategies should be considered. Climate riskassessments study should merge traditional riskassessments with climate change assessments.

Use o Open Source Risk Models is recommend-ed, in which probabilistic techniques are appliedto the analysis o various natural hazards. At thislevel o analysis, hazard inormation is combined

with exposure and vulnerability data allowing theuser to determine the risk simultaneously on aninter-related multi-hazard basis. In recent years,several open source GIS-based multi-hazard riskplatorm has/are being developed. HAZUS-MHis a powerul risk assessment platorm or analyz-ing potential losses rom earthquakes, oods, andwinds. CAPRA- Central American ProbabilisticRisk Assessment is another GIS-based platormor risk analysis o earthquakes, tsunamis, tropi-cal cyclones, oods, landslides, orest-fres, and

volcanoes. HazSanaa and HazYemen are othertwo such open source GIS-based multi-hazard riskplatorm being developed or Sanaa city and Ye-men country, respectively. These open source plat-orm should build upon existing initiatives, withthe objective o consolidating methodologies orhazard, exposure, and risk assessment, and raisingrisk management awareness in the region.

1.3 Limitations of the StudyThis report is a quick assessment study o the

region, carried out in a short time o 4 months.Risk is commonly quantifed as the product o haz-ard, exposure, and vulnerability. However, in thisstudy, the approach or risk assessment is muchsimpler than the standard probabilistic methodsand estimation o average annual economic losses(AAL) and losses or dierent annual probability oexceedance (AEP) are carried out directly basedon recorded historical losses. Thus, the approachis dependent on availability o historical loss data.

The other limitations may be due to the use ohistorical data. Oten damage estimates o large,catastrophic events tend to be overestimated,while those o more requent, less severe events


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are oten underestimated. Socio-economic lossesrom typhoons (strong tropical cyclones) occurmore in the orm o ooding caused by typhoons.However, losses are oten reported as caused bythe typhoons only, since separating the reportedlosses caused by typhoon and ood inducedtyphoon is a difcult proposition. Economic lossescaused due to orest-fres in the past in Indonesiaare very high. Risk assessment carried out in thisstudy, shows AAL or orest fres is highest in In-

donesia, which is contrary to popular belie in thecountry. The economic loss probability estimatespresented in this report are not intended ordesigning catastrophe insurance schemes, whichrequire a much more detailed approach that mod-els hazard, exposure and vulnerability o buildingsand inrastructure.

1.4 Report structureThe report is organized as ollows:

risk assessment, taking into account theshit in disaster management practices to-wards an integrated DRR approach.

and demographic characteristics o theASEAN region.

-ed to carry out the risk assessments used inthis study.

analyses o disaster risk assessment at coun-try level. This includes an examination othe socio-economic and biophysical contexto individual countries, as well as specifcssuch as disaster risk statistics. Inormation ispresented in a concise ormat or easy andquick reerence.

analyses disaster risk assessment at regionallevel. The chapter also includes risk mapstailored to ASEAN countries using GlobalRisk Assessment (GAR) PREVIEW GlobalRisk Data Platorm.

risk and its eects, including a look at majortrans-boundary disasters in the ASEANregion.

highlights o each country.

change assessments, identifes the vulnera-bilities o individual countries, and examinesthe potential impact o such changes acrossthe region.

-agement ramework, assessing the levels oindividual countries emergency prepared-ness, institutional capacity building, riskmitigation investments and catastrophe riskfnancing.

detailed risk assessment based on the datagathered or this report.

-mary recommendations.

-ology, reerences, list o organizations andinstitutions, and relevant Internet sites.

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Risk Assessment: An Overview

Building a culture o prevention is noteasy. While the costs o prevention haveto be paid in the present, its benefts liein a distant uture. Moreover, the beneftsare not tangible; they are the disastersthat did NOT happen.(Kof Annan, 1999)

The requency and impact o disasters triggeredby natural hazards have grown dramaticallysince the early twentieth century, rising by morethan 800 per cent worldwide over the last 40years alone (Munich Re, 2005; CRED EM-DAT,2005). Moreover, the global trend is set toworsen now that climate change has becomea threat, prompting an anticipated increase inthe requency and severity o weather-relateddisasters.

Disasters due to natural hazards can havecatastrophic impacts on nations and regions.These events can disrupt the social, economicand environmental status o societies at anumber o dierent levels. The social impact odisasters includes loss o livelihoods, assets andinrastructure, as well as harm to emotional andphysical well-being. Disasters can cause socialunrest, which can lead to the discontinuation odevelopment programmes. Environmental lossesare oten signifcant.

Disasters tend to hit the poorest most as theyhave little or no fnancial or physical resilience. Thepoor tend to depend most on a well-unctioningenvironment or their livelihoods and strugglemost to rebuild their lives and assets in theatermath o a disaster.

The extent o damage caused by disastersdepends on the vulnerability o the aected areaas well as the severity o the hazard. Consequently,eorts aimed at reducing vulnerabilities through

such measures as prior hazard orecasting orenhancing resilience can help to greatly reducethe impact o disasters.

Until the 1990s, disaster risk assessments weregiven lower priority than disaster response (rescueand relie). Since then, there has been a strategicshit in disaster management practices towardsan integrated DRR approach, which includesincorporating DRR planning in the developmentprocess o countries and regions. There areseveral international initiatives, particularly thoseo the UNDP (2004), UNISDR (2004), UNISDRGlobal Assessment Report (GAR, 2009) and the

World Bank (Dilley et al., 2005), that encouragenations to integrate disaster preparedness andmitigation into their development plans. This hasbrought a new dimension and perspective to theeorts to manage disasters.

In the ASEAN countries, priorities on the issueso monitoring, orecasting and early warningo disasters caused by natural hazards aregaining importance, and there is a shit romthe traditional response-oriented approach to a

mitigation-oriented approach. In addition, thereis a gradual shit towards incorporating disasterrisk management into development plans. It issignifcant that all the ten countries participatedin the second World Conerence or DRR, held inHyogo in January 2005, and committed to adoptthe Priorities or Action outlined in the HFA.

The recognition o the greater need or protectivestrategies to saeguard societies and economiesrom the adverse eects o disasters has ocused

attention on vulnerabilities and risk actors, andthe benefcial role o disaster risk management.Appreciating the need or DRR and implementingthe concept requires a proper understandingo actors including the nature and severity othe impact o disasters, knowledge o previousoccurrences, an identifcation o any trends and anunderstanding o the vulnerability o populationsand property.

To acilitate the implementation o DRR, UNISDRand UNDP are currently revising a core set oindicators and a methodology developed in 2004(UNDP, 2004) to guide and monitor progresstowards the reduction o risk rom natural hazards.

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The Study Area

The Association o Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) region (Figure 1) covers an area o4.48 million sq km, and has a total population(2009) o 593 million (Table 1). ASEAN, consistingo 10 independent countries, namely, Brunei,Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar(Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and

Vietnam is a region o Southeast Asia extendingrom the south o China, east o India and north oAustralia. Cambodia, Laos, peninsular Malaysia,

Myanmar (Burma), Thailand, and Vietnam arepart o mainland Southeast Asia (Indochina) whileBrunei, East Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines,and Singapore are part o maritime SoutheastAsia.

Geographically, ASEAN is an extremely largeregion with varied geography, and includes highhills and rugged mountains, elevated plateaus,highlands, oodplains, coastal plains and deltas.It is home to large river systems such as the

Mekong and Ayeyarwady, and major water bodiessuch Tonle Sap and Lake Toba, the later beingthe largest volcanic lake in ASEAN. Most part

o ASEAN has a hot and humid tropical climate,an exception being the mountainous areas inthe Indochina Peninsula that experience mildertemperature and drier landscape.

A major part o the population in the region livesin riverine plains, delta and coastal plains. Thus,most populous areas are subjected to periodicand extensive hazards like ood, tsunami, andcyclone. Moreover, the unique geographic

and climatic conditions make ASEAN one othe worlds most vulnerable regions to naturalhazards as well as climate change impact. Almostevery year, powerul typhoons with ooding andlandslides, and earthquakes aect some countriesin the ASEAN region with similar requency.

Locationmap ofASEANcountries

Figure 1

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Table1:OverviewofcountriesinASEANregion(2009statistics)#

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Methodology

A simple and straightorward approach toestimating risk is to base calculations solely onthe data provided by historical records. I the datasets are relatively complete, and cover a periodsufciently long enough to include several returnperiods o the events under consideration, thenreliable risk estimates can be derived. Approachesthat are more robust model the physics o eventgeneration and introduce physical parameters tosupplement the incompleteness o the historical

records. It consists o hazard (scenario and groundmotion) module, exposure (inventory) module,vulnerability module, damage module and lossmodule. The sketch below presents a generalisedearthquake-modeling ramework.

However, the development and implementationo such models require signifcant time andresources, way beyond the scope o the presentstudy.

This synthesis report on the Ten ASEAN Countriesis based on a desk review o existing studiesby academia, governments and internationalgovernmental and non-governmentalorganizations. The ollowing sections describe themethodology being adopted in carrying out thehazard, vulnerability and risk assessments.

4.1 Data reviewA survey o literature on economic loss data dueto disasters shows that or most ASEAN countries,

disaster economic loss data or all hazards except

earthquakes and tsunamis are available rom thelate 1960s. Thus, the report will present analysesand estimates o the hazard, vulnerability and riskbased on the historical events that have aectedthe countries and the region over the last 40 years(1970 to 2009).

Because most hazards have short return periods,o less than 40 years, this window will providea reliable picture o the characteristics o the

phenomena. Nevertheless, signifcant disasterevents at country and regional levels thatpredate the late 1960s have also been reviewed.Earthquakes and tsunamis that have long to verylong return periods required special treatment.Consequently, in terms o economic losses, alonger duration o earthquakes and tsunamis datacovering about 100 years has been reviewed,analyzed and simulated based on the damagedescription and the number o people killed andaected. However, to provide consistency with

the other hazards, disaster risk statistics or all thehazards will be provided or a 40-year time period.

Since data quality and completeness are criticalin the implementation o the proposed approach,special eorts have been made to identiy,document, veriy, and process the data. Theremainder o this section addresses the dataresources, and their use and limitations in thecontext o this study.

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ASEAN countries, in the orm o countryand regional reports.

secretariat at Lao PDR was establishedin 1995 by an agreement between thegovernments o Cambodia, Lao PDR,Thailand and Viet Nam. MRC also providesood and drought disaster data in the ormo reports.

was created in March 2003. IFNet is anetwork aiming to promote activities thatwill contribute to reduce the negativeimpacts o oods all over the world. Itprovides ood disaster data in the orm oreports.

Service (WAMIS) main objective o WAMISis to provide a dedicated web serveror disseminating agro-meteorologicalproducts available to the global agricultural

community on a near real-time basis issuedby WMO Members. It also provides oodand drought disaster data in the orm oreports.

unit has prepared brie country disaster riskprofles or Cambodia, Indonesia, and VietNam.

preview platorm (ISDR, 2009; http://preview.grid.unep.ch) has created spatial

data or the entire world using simplifedmodeling techniques and has providedmortality risk data or tropical cyclone(typhoon), earthquake, ood, landslide, andmultiple hazards or the ASEAN region.

(NGDC) database is an exhaustive databaseon earthquake events since 1900 or mostcountries in the world. The database hasan approximate economic loss rangeor events, where exact economic lossestimates are not available.

ood data across the world or major eventssince 1980. The site has documented the

Data sourcesSince 1970, signifcant eorts have been made byvarious academic and multilateral developmentagencies to compile historical disaster data andgenerate standardized data across the globeor disaster risk mitigation activities. As a result,numerous databases are available in print andon the Internet. This section describes the mostrelevant data sources that have been identifed orthis study.

Epidemiology o Disasters (CRED)maintains the EM-DAT global emergencyevents database on disasters (natural andtechnological hazards), which is one o themost exhaustive sources o data availablein the public domain. While EM-DAT datadate back to the 1900s, data on economiclosses caused by disasters in most ASEANcountries have become generally available

since the 1980s. As per EM-DAT, or anemergency event to be classifed as adisaster must meet at least one o theollowing criteria:

(ADRC) has compiled data rom varioussources, including: UNOCHA, DesInventar,

the Government o the United States, theGovernment o Japan, OFDA, IFRC, WMO,and the reinsurance industry and privateagencies. The data in the orm o countryreports are available or all o the ASEANcountries except Brunei.

Thailand (www.dwr.go.th) has providedsocio-economic loss analyses (or theperiod 2000-2008) or ood and drought inthe Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) coveringCambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam.

has compiled data rom various sources.The data are available or most o the


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ood extents or dierent periods usingsatellite data. Dartmouth data has recordeda Glide number or each event, which is aunique identifer and a standard practicemany international organizations are nowollowing. The site is exclusively or ooddata, though economic losses are sparselydocumented.

In addition, there are various hazard-specifc

studies analyzing particular events at the countrylevel. However, these reports all short in providingdetailed country-level risk inormation.

Apart rom the above-mentioned sources,specifc reports and data on countries and theASEAN region are being reviewed and analyzed,especially those on climate change assessment,population growth, economic and urbanexpansion, and identifcation o priority areas(Mega cities) or detailed risk assessment. Several

key institutions and organizations in the regionwere contacted while compiling this report.

Data issuesIn spite o the eorts o data gatheringorganizations, historical data on disasters havemany inherent problems. Guha-Sapir and Hargitt(2004) have highlighted several issues on theavailability o disaster-related data in the reportThirty Years o Natural Disasters 1974-2003: TheNumbers. The key problems highlighted in the

report include:

data collection and compilation, whichcan lead to lack o standardization in datacollection methodologies and defnitions.

dierences in the rationale behind datagathering.

many years) may be recorded as multipleevents.

dierent political boundaries, such as oodsor earthquakes, can be recorded in all the

aected countries and may be counted asdierent events.

also cause ambiguities and difculties incomparing historical data.

over the dierent types o disasters can leadto inconsistencies in loss and social impactestimation.

In addition to these, there are concerns regardingthe lack o standardized methods or assessingdamage across the globe. Most databasemanagers gather data rom a variety o publicsources, such as newspapers, insurance reports, orthrough aid agencies. The original inormation isnot gathered specifcally or analytical purposes,so even i the compiling organization appliesstrict defnitions, there can still be inherentshortcomings in the data.

There are other issues in disaster data gatheringthat concern the impact diusion o events.Hazards such as droughts do not have clear-cutstart and end dates as the occurrences start slowlyand their impacts linger long ater the ofcial endo the events. Furthermore, the impact can extendar beyond the visible physical damage and canoten aect livelihoods.

All the datasets obtained rom the identifedsources are being examined with these issues in

mind. The steps required to resolve at least someo them are presented in the next section.

Data selection and cleaningAs described in the previous section, a largenumber o sources contain data gathered bydierent agencies and under dierent programs.An important part o the risk assessment processis to identiy the most reliable sources, cross checkthem with other sources, and identiy and resolveinconsistencies in order to create a best-estimatedatabase or use in the study. Table-2 presents thedata sources used or each hazard listed. The resto this section presents some o the steps ollowedto assure that the most reliable data have been


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Details on data sources used and period covered for each hazard in the studyTable 2

gathered and used.

Another specifc problem aced in the studyo smaller countries concerns the problem odisasters spreading across national boundaries.Many events, including tropical cyclones(typhoons), oods, earthquakes, and droughts,transcend borders and are recorded in more thanone country, resulting in duplication o event and

impact values, when data are used or analysis at aregional level. To avoid this issue, data sources likeDartmouth have documented data by event rather

than by country. In such cases, the ormat adoptedin the CRED EM-DAT database is used to identiy,correlate and record data or individual countrylosses.

To deal with these anomalies, data rom dierentsources are compared on an event-by-event basis.The event was ignored i it was not reported inany o the above-mentioned sources. I an event

was only recorded in one data source, it wascrosschecked using published reports, papersand media news reports, particularly i there were


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social vulnerability using participatory methods atthe local level (Douglas, 2007).

In this study the social vulnerability was estimatedbased on the average number o people killedper year at country level. The social vulnerabilityranking at country level was estimated based onthe average number people killed per year permillion (relative vulnerability). Hazard risk mortalitymaps and gridded population data were analyzed

using Geographic Inormation System (GIS) toidentiy the population at risk to the varioushazards.

Countries were compared based on population atrisk or a single hazard as well as multiple hazards.Average number o people killed per year permillion were calculated to compare all countrieson a consistent scale. Economic and socialindicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP)PPP and population density were also considered

to describe the social and economic vulnerability.

The country-level socio-economic indicators arebeing taken rom the World Fact Book (CIA, 2010;http://www.cia.gov); UNDP (http://esa.un.org/unup/; http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/); IMF(http://www.im.org) and disaster risk statistics areprepared based on reported disaster data. Wherea socio-economic indicator is not available orthe year 2009, the corresponding value availableor the latest year is used. For the ASEAN region,

socio-economic indicators are derived romcountry-level socio-economic indicators.

4.3 Risk assessmentRisk is commonly quantifed as the product ohazard and exposure. In this study, the intent isto quantiy the risk directly based on recordedhistorical losses. This approach is much simplerthan the standard probabilistic methods, but itprovides reliable estimates as long as recordscover a sufcient period, as explained earlierin this chapter. In the case o this study, datacovering a 40-year period (1970-2009) areconsidered or all hazards except earthquakesand tsunamis (1900-2009). As outlined in section

major variations in the reported number o deaths,the size o aected population, and economiclosses.

4.2 Hazard risk and vulnerability estimatesHazard risk and vulnerability at the regional andcountry levels are derived rom the sets o datadiscussed in the previous section. The hazard risksare estimated semi-quantitatively rather than ullyprobabilistically. They are urther investigated

to assess their geographical commonalityand overlap. Vulnerability is defned as beingproportional to the population at risk. Forvulnerability assessment, quantitative techniquesare used to relate the hazard risks with the socio-economic actors o the region.

Hazard Risk AnalysisShort o presenting a ully probabilistic estimateo hazard risk, this study regionally classifes thehazard risks as low, medium, high and very high. A

more quantitative defnition o these descriptors isgiven by hazard in their respective sections.

The earthquake, ood, landslide, cyclone anddrought hazard risks maps were derived rom theGAR Preview platorm (GAR, 2009; http://preview.grid.unep.ch) along with country specifc disasterdata.

Vulnerability AnalysisThe assessment and mapping o human

vulnerability is less advanced than the hazardassessment work (UNISDR, 2004). There isno straight orward methodology or humanvulnerability modeling due to reasons such asthe lack o observational data on the hazard,the lack o proper estimate o hazard impactas it propagates into the livelihood o thesociety and the lack o mechanism to assess thelingering impact o the atermath o some events.Methodologies or modeling physical vulnerabilityhave been developed and are in are an advancedstage. However, as social vulnerability is societyspecifc, depending on actors such as lie style,its quantifcation is more involved and at presentthere are eorts to develop methods or assessing


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4.1, data or earthquakes and tsunamis are usedwhich cover a longer period because damagingearthquakes and tsunamis generally have longerreturn periods than those or other hazards.

In addition to the general data issues identifedin Section 4.1, it is important to consider theollowing additional issues:

computation may have someshortcomings. Oten damage estimateso large, catastrophic events tend tobe overestimated, while those o morerequent, less severe events are otenunderestimated. Moreover, smaller events,particularly those that individually causerelatively little damage, are oten notreported at all.

are available the one with the more

conservative estimate is considered.

depends on the economy o the aectedarea, even though the intensity o thehazard may be similar. For example, oodsin developed countries tend to cause highereconomic losses per unit area ooded thanoods in countries such as Myanmar.

(strong tropical cyclones) occur more inthe orm o ooding caused by typhoons.

However, losses are oten reportedas caused by the typhoons only, sinceseparating the reported losses caused bytyphoon and ood induced typhoon is adifcult proposition.

The methodology or loss analysis was adoptedrom The World Bank and UNISDR publicationISDR (2009). Central Asia and Caucasus DisasterRisk Management Initiative (CAC DRMI): RiskAssessment or Central Asia and Caucasus, DeskStudy Review and is presented in Annex 1.

Statistical methods were applied to determine theprobability and requency o a hazards occurrence

and the level o economic losses it could cause.Number o deaths, deaths per year, deaths permillion population, and aected populationwere also estimated. Economic loss potential ordierent probabilities o exceedance and AAL wascalculated or each country and regional level.

4.4 Presentation of resultsThe results are presented at country, and regionallevels. Data are presented to capture the

composition o disasters by hazard type within acountry, and the relation between the events andtheir impacts is examined along with estimationso socio-economic losses.

There is a strong link between natural hazardsand their biophysical settings, while vulnerabilitydepends largely on socio-economic conditions.Consequently, a brie overview o each countryis provided as background inormation prior tothe disaster risk assessment. The report presents

analyses o disaster events and their impact atthe country, and regional levels in the context obiophysical and socio-economic settings.


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Country Risk Profiles

This section deals with the preliminary assessmento disaster risks in Ten ASEAN countries. Theassessment is conducted rom both hazard-specifc and country-level perspectives. Reporteddisaster data or various hazards at country levelare used or hazard-specifc and country-level riskassessment. The approach adopted or economicloss analysis is presented in Annex 1.

An event with a 0.5 per cent annual probability o

exceedance (AEP) in one year occurs on averageevery 200 years and generally corresponds to acatastrophic event. An event with a 5 per centand 20 per cent annual probability o exceedanceoccurs on average every 20 years and 5 years,respectively.

As a preamble to the country-level riskassessments, the physical and social settingso each country are provided in brie. This isimportant as disaster requency and intensity

have a direct relationship with the biophysical andsocio-economic setting o the country.

The country-level socio-economic indicatorshave been taken rom the World Fact Book (CIA,2010; http://www.cia.gov); the World Bank (2010;http://web.worldbank.org); Asian DevelopmentBank (ADB, 2010; http://www.adb.org); UNDP(http://esa.un.org/unup/; http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/); and IMF (http://www.im.org)and disaster risk statistics have been prepared

based on reported disaster data. Where a socio-economic indicator is not available or the year2009, the corresponding value available or thelatest year is used. For the ASEAN region, socio-economic indicators have been estimated romcountry-level socio-economic indicators.

For an emergency event to be classifed as adisaster it must meet at least one o the ollowingcriteria:

5


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5.1 Brunei Darussalam

Overview

Percentage distribution of reported disasters in BruneiFigure 2


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Regional setting

Brunei Darussalam is situated on the northwesterncoast o the island o Boreno between eastlongitudes 11404 and 11523 and north latitudeso 400 and 505. The country is surroundedon three sides by the eastern Malaysian state oSarawak and to the north by the South China Sea.It is divided into two parts by Sarawak. It has aland area o 5,765 sq km, a coastline o about 161km along the South China Sea, and a populationo 388,190 with Bandar Seri Begawan as the mainpopulation centre. The western part o Brunei ispredominantly hilly lowland whereas the eastern

part consists o mostly rugged mountain terrain.The summit ridge o Bukit Pagon, in the westernpart, contains the highest point o the countrywith an elevation o 1,850m above sea level andlowest point is South China Sea (0m). The coasthas a wide, tidal and swampy plain. Brunei has anequatorial climate characterized by uniormly hightemperature, high humidity and heavy rainall.Temperatures range rom 23 - 32 degree Celsius,while annual rainall varies rom 2,500 mm on thecoast to 7,500 mm in the interior.

Hazard profleHistorically, Brunei is one o the least vulnerablecountries to natural hazards. The country is

Average annual economic loss ($ million) of BruneiFigure 3

vulnerable to low-level hazards rom earthquakes,

cyclonic storms, oods, landslides, and seasonalsmoke/haze resulting rom orest fres in Indonesia(Figure 2). However, in the recent years it has aceda ew disasters (http://news.brunei.m/2009/08/06/country-experiencing-worst-disaster-year/).In2009, Brunei aced oods, landslides, a pandemic,serious fre outbreak, and the haze. In 2008, Bruneiexperienced landslides, oods, and strong winds,while in 2007, the country experienced oods, andstrong winds.

The region is reputedly a region o high seismic

hazard. However, Brunei is ortunate not to belocated in an earthquake hazard prone area andis in a low seismic hazard region (GSHAP, 1998).Its capital city, however, has experienced smallearthquakes (in the range o 4-5 magnitude),which caused swaying o some high-rise buildings(5-6 stories) in 1992 (Waiong, 1993) and 2005. Dueto low seismic hazard, there was a general eelingo complacency as mentioned by Waiong in 1993,in a conerence on Seismic risk management orcountries o the Asia Pacifc region, Bangkok.

However, in 2006, the country established aNational Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) totake on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) initiatives.


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Risk profleAs per reported historical disaster data (http://www.preventionweb.net, EM DAT), Brunei sueredrom one orest fre disaster in 1998, which causedan economic loss o $ 2 million with no reportedcasualties. However, in recent years, the countryhas aced a ew disasters as reported in Bruneinews. In 2009, Brunei aced oods, landslides,a pandemic, serious fre outbreak and the haze.In 2008, Brunei experienced landslides, oods,

and strong winds, while in 2007, the countryexperienced oods, and strong winds (http://news.brunei.m/2009/08/06/country-experiencing-worst-disaster-year/).

Thus, the country is at risk rom natural hazardssuch as earthquakes, landslides, oods,orest-fres, storms (winds), and haze. Therisk rom earthquakes and haze is low romwithin the country and moderate to large romtransboundary events.

Due to non-availability o disaster data (exceptone orest-fre event), the disaster risk analysis-economic loss potential (AAL and economic lossesor dierent probabilities o exceedance) has notbeen carried out.


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5.2 Cambodia

Overview

Percentage distribution of reported disasters in CambodiaFigure 4


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Average annual economic loss ($ million) of CambodiaFigure 5

Regional settingThe Kingdom o Cambodia is located in SoutheastAsia, bordering Thailand to the north and west,Laos to the northeast, Vietnam to the east andsoutheast and the Gul o Thailand in the south.The country covers an area o 181,035 sq km witha population o 14.49 million (2009). The totallength o land boundary is 2,572 km and coastlineo 443 km. About 75 per cent o the country liesat elevations o less than 100 m above mean sealevel mostly comprising low-lying alluvial plain.

The highest and lowest elevations in Cambodiaare 1,813 m (Phnom Aural) and 0 m (Gul oThailand), with respect to mean sea level. Theclimate in Cambodia is tropical monsoon withthe rainy season extending rom May to October.The country has an average annual rainall o1,400 mm on the central plain and about 3,800mm in the mountains and along the coast. Theaverage annual temperature is 27C. The heaviestprecipitation occurs in September-October,whereas January-February remains the driest

period. The Mekong River ows in a north-southdirection through the country. The Tonle Sap(Great Lake) o Cambodia is the largest in ASEANregion. The lake covers an area o 2,700 sq km in

the dry season and reaches more than 10,000 sqkm during the monsoon season.

Hazard profleCambodia is vulnerable to disasters causedby natural hazards, including oods, droughts,cyclonic storms, epidemics, landslides, andearthquakes. Figure 4 shows the hazard-specifcdistribution o various disasters that occurredduring the period 1970-2009.Cambodia is susceptible to heavy monsoon

ash and riverine ooding, mainly because odeorestation, erosion o riverbanks causingthe river to become shallower. On an average,the Mekong River and its tributaries and localdownpours ood 25 per cent o the plainsannually. Rainall-runo is oten blocked by thehigh water level in the Mekong River and TonleSap Great Lake. The country is rarely hit bycoastal oods. Analysis o disaster data show thatoods have aected a large number o peopleand caused signifcant economic losses. For

example, the July-August 2000 ood killed 347people, aected 3.45 million people and causedan economic loss o $160 million. The othersignifcant ood events occurred in 1991, 1994,


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1996, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, and2007.

The imbalance in the distribution o monsoonrainall results in drought conditions in some partso Cambodia. During the rainy season rom May toNovember, a dry spell o 10-20 days can give riseto extensive drought and damage paddy crop.Prolonged drought in some part o the countrymay result in signifcant losses. For example, the

2002 drought aected 650,000 people and causedan economic loss o $38 million; another severedrought in 19941996 aected 5 million peopleand caused an economic loss o $100 million.

Some provinces o Cambodia also experiencedcyclonic storms. In November 1997, LindaTyphoon hit Pou lo wei island wreckaging 81fshing boats and leaving hundreds o victims(1998 Country Report, ADRC). The September 29to October 05, 2009, typhoon Ketsana killed 43

persons and aected 49,000 amilies (CambodiaPDNA report, 2010).

Cambodia lies in a region o low seismic hazard(GSHAP, 1998) and there has been no reporteddisaster event due to earthquakes in the pastthree decades.

The country is also aected by landslidestriggered by oods. In 1997, the ow o theMekong River caused landslides in Kandal and

Kampong Chain Prey Veng provinces, and inPhnom Penh city. Almost every year peopleliving near the riverbanks ace destruction bylandslide (1998 Country Report, ADRC). However,no disaster events have been reported in variousdisaster databases due to landslides.

Risk profleVulnerability indicators such as the number odisaster events, deaths, aected population andeconomic losses have been plotted against hazardtypes as well as or 5-year intervals covering the40-year period 1970-2009. Figure 6 (a, b, c) showsthe plots o the total number o deaths, aectedpopulation and economic losses against each

hazard type, while Figure 7 (a, b, c) presents thesame variables plotted against 5-year periods.

Figure 6 shows that among natural hazards, oodscaused the largest number o deaths (1,245),aected the largest population (9.66 million) andcaused the highest economic loss ($532 million).

The period 1995-1999 (Figure 7) was the worstin terms o number o deaths (750), while 2000-

2004 was the worst in terms o number o peopleaected (7.537 million) and economic loss ($302.5million), caused mainly by the oods o 2000, 2001,and 2004.

Floods have the highest requency (0.35) anddeath rate (31.13). The relative vulnerabilitywas also highest or oods (2.15), ollowed byepidemics (1.36) and storms (tropical cyclones0.05).

Floods are the dominant risk in Cambodia, withan economic AAL o $16.1 million, ollowed bydroughts ($7 million) (Figure 5).

The 20-year return period (an event with 5 percent probability o exceedance) loss or all naturalhazards is $112 million (0.4 per cent o GDP PPP);while the 200-year return period (an event with0.5 per cent probability o exceedance, generallycorresponds to a catastrophic event) loss is $299million (1.07 per cent o GDP PPP).


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Cambodia: Disaster events and socio-economicimpact by hazard type (1970-2009)

Figure 6Cambodia: Disaster events and socio-economicimpact by 5-year periods (1970-2009)

Figure 7


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5.3 Indonesia

Overview

Percentage distribution of reported disasters in IndonesiaFigure 8


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Average annual economic loss ($ million) of IndonesiaFigure 9

Regional setting

The Republic o Indonesia is one o the largestarchipelagos in the world and is worlds 16thlargest country in terms o land area. Accordingto the Indonesian Naval Hydro-Oceanographicofce, it consists o 17,508 islands (5 major islandsand about 30 smaller groups). Sumatra is thelargest island covering an area o 473,606 sq km.The other important islands are Java/Madura,Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Papua. The countrybridges two continents, Asia and Australia,orming an archipelago between the Indian

Ocean and the Pacifc Ocean. Indonesia has atotal area o 1.905 million sq km and a populationo over 240 million (2009). It is predominantlymountainous, with about 400 volcanoes, 100 owhich are active. Puncak Jaya in Papua is thehighest point o Indonesia with an elevation o5,030 m and the lowest point is Indian Ocean (0m) rom mean sea level. Several important riversow through the country like Musi, Batanghari(Sumatra), Barito, Mahakam (Kalimantan),Memberamo, Digul (Papua) and Bengawan Solo,Citarum (Java). Lake Toba, located in Indonesia,is the largest volcanic lake in the world. Owingto its location along the equator, Indonesia hasa tropical climate. The average annual rainall

ranges rom 1,780 mm in the lowlands to 3,175

mm in the mountainous region. The averagetemperature in Indonesia is 27.7 C and theaverage temperature range is 1.5 C.

Hazard profleAmongst all the ASEAN countries, Indonesia isone o the most vulnerable countries to naturalhazards including orest (wild) fres, earthquakesand tsunamis, oods, volcanoes, droughts,landslides, typhoons (storms), and epidemics.Figure 8 shows the hazard-specifc distribution o

various disasters that occurred in the country orthe period 1970-2009.

As a tropical country with orestland, orest freevents are requent in Indonesia. Forest fresnot only cause environmental damage but alsocause haze, thereby inuencing lives o people inand around the country. The major fre event oSeptember 1997 in the Forest o Sumatra Islandkilled 240 people, aected 32,070 people andcaused an estimated loss o $8.0 billion.The country is located in the Ring o Fire wherethree earthquake belts run through the country,subjecting the areas o Sumatra, Java, Bali, EastNusa Tenggara, Maluku, Sulawesi and Irian Jaya to


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seismic activities. The December 26, 2004 (Boxingday) earthquake (magnitude 9.1) and tsunamievents killed 165,708 people, aected morethan 0.5 million people and caused an economicloss o $4.45 billion in Indonesia. Indonesia liesin a region with low to very high seismic hazard(GSHAP, 1998).The uncontrolled population growth, improperdevelopment and management o rivers causesoods during the rainy season and droughts

during the dry season almost every year in someparts o Indonesia. The recent ood event oJanuary 2007 in the Jakarta region killed 68people, aected 217,087 people and caused anestimated damage o about $ 971 million.

Droughts also cause signifcant socio-economiclosses in the country. A major drought in theyear 1997 killed 672 people, aected 1.07 millionpeople and caused an estimated damage o $ 88million.

Risk profleVulnerability indicators such as the number odisaster events, deaths, aected population andeconomic losses have been plotted against hazardtypes as well as or 5-year intervals covering the40-year period 1970-2009. Figure 10 (a, b, c) showsthe plots o the total number o deaths, aectedpopulation and economic losses against eachhazard type, while Figure 11 (a, b, c) presents thesame variables plotted against 5-year periods.

Figure 10 shows that among all hazards,earthquakes and tsunamis combined togethercaused the largest number o deaths (180,691)ollowed by oods (5,420), landslides (1,845),typhoons/storms (1,692), droughts (1,329),volcanoes (661) and wildfres (300). Floods aectedthe largest number o people (7.581 million),ollowed by earthquakes and tsunamis combinedtogether (7.477 million) and droughts (4.600million). Earthquakes and tsunamis combined,also caused the highest economic loss ($9.412billion); ollowed by wildfres (9.329 billion),volcanoes ($344 million), droughts ($160 millionand landslides ($122 million).

The period 2000-2004 (Figure 11) was the worst interms o number o deaths (168,588); 2005-2009was the worst in terms o the number o peopleaected (7.203 million); while economic losseswere worst in the period 1995-1999 ($10.213billion), mainly due to the 1997-98 wildfres, 1996oods, 1998 earthquake and 1997 drought.

Floods had the highest requency (3.20), ollowed

by earthquakes (2.10), landslides (1.03) andvolcanoes (0.93). The relative vulnerability washighest or earthquakes (10.11), ollowed bytsunamis (8.69) and oods (0.56).

Forest fres, earthquakes and tsunamis combined,and oods are the dominant risks in Indonesia,with an economic AAL o $440 million, $363million, and $84 million respectively (Figure 9). Itmay be noted that AAL or orest fres is highest,which is contrary to popular belie in the country.

The 20-year return period (an event with 5 percent probability o exceedance) loss or all naturalhazards is $3.623 billion (0.37 per cent o GDPPPP); while the 200-year return period (an eventwith 0.5 per cent probability o exceedance,generally corresponds to a catastrophic event) lossis $10.64 billion (1.10 per cent o GDP PPP).


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Indonesia: Disaster events and socio-economicimpact by hazard type (1970-2009)

Figure 10 Figure 11Indonesia: Disaster events and socio-economicimpact by 5-year periods (1970-2009)


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5.4 Lao PDR

Overview

Percentage distribution of reported disasters in LaosFigure 12


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Average annual economic loss ($ million) of Lao PDRFigure 13

Regional settingThe Lao Peoples Democratic Republic (PDR) alsoreerred to as Lao PDR or Laos is a landlockedcountry, located in the heart o the Indochinapeninsula in the Southeast Asia. The country isbordered by Myanmar and the Peoples Republico China to the northwest, Vietnam to the east,Cambodia to the south and Thailand to the west.It covers a total area o 236,800 sq km and hasa population o 6.834 million (CIA, 2009). The

landscape o country mostly consists o ruggedmountains (75 per cent) with some plains andplateaus. Phou (means mountain) Bia is thehighest mountain in Xiengkhuang province withan elevation o 2,817 m above sea level and thelowest point is in the Mekong River (70 m). Laos iscriss-crossed by many rivers and streams, o whichthe Mekong is the largest, owing through 1,898km o the country rom north to south with 22 maintributaries. Its climate is characterised as warm,tropical climate dominated by two monsoons:

October, heavy and requent rainall andhigh humidity, wind, warm and wet

March, the atmospheric pressure is high,low temperature and humidity, cool dry air

The dry season spans during December-April.However, the weather remains semi-tropical in thenorthern mountains as well as in the high rangeo the Annamite Chain bordering Vietnam to theeast. The annual rainall varies rom 1,000 mm 3,000 mm with an average rainall o 1,714 mm and

the temperature varies rom 15C to 40C.

Hazard profleLao PDR is vulnerable to natural hazards includingtyphoons (storms), oods, droughts, landslides,earthquakes, volcanoes and epidemics. Figure 12shows the hazard-specifc distribution o variousdisasters that occurred in the country rom 1970 to2009.

Flood is the major cause o disasters in Lao

PDR - both in terms o requency as well as interms o consequences. There are oods alongthe Mekong River every year in the central andsouthern parts o the country and ash oods


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in northern part o the country. In 2002, oodsaected over 0.25 million people and in 2005this number was over 48 million people. Duringperiod 1970-2009, about 30 oods have beenrecorded in the country, including large oodsthat occurred in 1971, 1978, 1995, 1996, 2000,2001, 2002, 2005, 2008 and 2009. The direct andindirect losses experienced by Lao PDR in 2008were urther compounded by the biggest oodever in the history o the country in August 2008.

The Mekong River exceeded historical levels andreached its highest peak in 100 years (personalcommunication, 2010).

Typhoons are a major cause o ooding in LaoPDR. The peak typhoon months are Septemberand October and maximum they aect thecountry above 15 N. The October 2009, typhoonKetsana killed 16 persons, aected more than 0.12million, and caused a reported economic loss o$100 million. Another major tropical storm Lewis

in the year 1993 killed 8 people, and caused anestimated damage o about $ 302 million.

Droughts have also caused socio-economicdamages in Lao PDR. They occur over the wholecountry, with the central and southern provincesbeing the most aected. A major drought evento 1988 aected 730,000 people, and caused areported economic loss o $ 40 million.

Lao PDR lies in a region with low to high seismic

hazard (GSHAP, 1998). There are a ew lowmagnitude earthquakes reported in the northernpart o the country, such as the November1996 earthquake in Houay Xay district o Bokeoprovince (1998 Country Report, ADRC) and May16, 2007 earthquake with magnitude o 6.3 locatedat a western border area o LAO PDRs withThailand, Myanmar, and China (NGDC). However,no disaster caused by earthquakes in the countryhas been reported.

Landslides also pose a hazard and are triggeredmost oten due to heavy rainall causing damageto roads, especially in northern part o the country,where terrain is hilly (2005 Country Report, ADRC).

Risk profleVulnerability indicators such as the number odisaster events, deaths, aected population andeconomic losses have been plotted against hazardtypes as well as or 5-year intervals covering the40-year period 1970-2009. Figure 14 (a, b, c) showsthe plots o the total number o deaths, aectedpopulation and economic losses against eachhazard type, while Figure 15 (a, b, c) presents thesame variables plotted against 5-year periods.

Figure 14 shows that among all hazards,epidemics caused the largest number o deaths(786), ollowed by typhoons (223) and oods (143).Droughts aected the largest number o people(4.25 million) ollowed by oods (4.155 million) andtyphoons (1.591 million); while typhoons causedthe largest economic loss ($406 million) ollowedby oods and droughts.

The period 1990-1994 (Figure 15) was the worst

in terms o number o deaths (683) and economiclosses; while 1975-1979 was worst in terms onumber o people aected (3.959 million). The1990-1994 economic losses ($353.68 million) werecaused mainly by the 1993 typhoon Lewis. Floodsdisasters have the highest requency (0.68); whileepidemics have the highest death rate (19.65),ollowed by typhoons (5.58) and oods (3.65). Therelative vulnerability was highest or epidemics(2.88), ollowed by typhoons (0.82), and oods(0.53).

Typhoons (Cyclonic storms) and oods are thedominant risk in Lao PDR with an economic AALo $17.6 million and $8.3 million, respectivelyollowed by droughts ($4.7 million) (Figure 13).

The 20-year return period (an event with 5 percent probability o exceedance) loss or all naturalhazards is $133 million (0.91 per cent o GDP PPP),while the 200-year return period (an event with0.5 per cent probability o exceedance, generallycorresponds to a catastrophic event) loss is $426million (2.91 per cent o GDP PPP).


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Lao PDR: Disaster events and socio-economicimpact by hazard type (1970-2009)

Figure 14 Figure 15Lao PDR: Disaster events and socio-economicimpact by 5-year periods (1970-2009)


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5.5 Malaysia

Overview

Percentage distribution of reported disasters in MalaysiaFigure 16


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Average annual economic loss ($ million) of MalaysiaFigure 17

Regional settingMalaysia, located just north o the equator, is aSoutheast Asian country consisting o 13 statesand three Federal Territories. The country isseparated into Peninsular Malaysia and MalaysianBorneo (East Malaysia) by the South China Sea.The Peninsular region is bordered by Thailandand Singapore whereas Malaysian Borneo sharesborders with Indonesia and Brunei. Malaysia hasan area o 329,847 sq km, with a population o25.72 million (2009). The country has a coastline o4,675 km (Peninsular Malaysia 2,068 km; MalaysianBorneo 2,607 km). Both Peninsular and EastMalaysia consist o coastal plains rising to ruggedorested mountainous interiors. The highest andlowest elevations o Malaysia are Gunung Kinabalu(4,100 m above mean sea level) in East Malaysiaand Indian Ocean (0 m mean sea level). Malaysiahas a hot and humid tropical climate. The countryexperiences both the southwest (April to October)and northeast (October to February) monsoons.The average temperature in Malaysia is 27.5C.The highest monthly average temperature is 33C

whereas the lowest monthly average is 22C. Itreceives an average rainall o 2,409 mm.

Hazard profleMalaysia is vulnerable to natural hazards includingoods, orest fres, tsunami, cyclonic storms,landslides, earthquakes, epidemics, and haze.Figure 16 shows the hazard-specifc distribution ovarious disasters that occurred in the period 1970-2009.

Floods have caused signifcant damages in thecountry. The recent ood event o January 2007,in the Johor-Pahang region killed 17 people,aected 137,533 people and caused the economicloss o about $ 605 million.

Forest fres have caused signifcant socio-economic losses in the country. The major event oAugust 1997 caused economic losses o about $300 million.

The Boxing Day (26th December) Tsunami evento 2004 caused a major disaster in the countryby killing 80 people, aected 5,063 people andcaused economic loss o $ 500 million.

The Storm events are also on the rise in thecountry, the major events o 1996, 1997 and therecent event o 2004 have altogether killed 273


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people, aected a population o about 46,291 andcaused an economic loss o $ 53 million.

Malaysia lies in a region with high to very highseismic hazard (GSHAP, 1998). However, nodisaster caused by earthquakes in the country hasbeen reported.

Landslide hazards are also signifcant in thecountry. However, no disaster caused by landslides

in the country has been reported.

Risk profleVulnerability indicators such as the number odisaster events, deaths, aected population andeconomic losses have been plotted against hazardtypes as well as or 5-year intervals covering the40-year period 1970-2009. Figure 18 (a, b, c) showsthe plots o the total number o deaths, aectedpopulation and economic losses against eachhazard type, while Figure 19 (a, b, c) presents the

same variables plotted against 5-year periods.

Figure 18 shows that among natural hazards,epidemics caused the largest number o deaths(538), ollowed by storms (275), oods (255),landslides (152) and Tsunami (80). Floods aectedthe largest number o people (792,058) andcaused the highest economic loss ($1.116 billion),ollowed by tsunami ($500 million), orest-fre ($302million) and storms ($53 million).

The highest number o deaths rom disasterscaused by natural hazards was in the period1995 - 1999 (Figure 19), when 556 people died.The period 2005-2009 was the worst in termso number o people aected (322,526) andeconomic loss ($1.056 billion), mainly caused bythe devastating oods o 2007.

The disasters caused by oods has the highestrequency (0.83 per year), ollowed by epidemics,storms, landslides and orest fres. The death ratewas highest or epidemics (13.45), ollowed bystorms (6.88), oods (6.38), landslides (3.8) andtsunami (2.0). The relative vulnerability was highestor epidemics (0.52), ollowed by storms (0.27) and

oods (0.25).

Floods are the dominant risk in Malaysia with aneconomic AAL o $ 39.9 million, ollowed by orestfres ($17.9 million), tsunami ($14.3 million) andstorms ($3.2 million) (Figure 17).

The 20-year return period (an event with 5 percent probability o exceedance) loss or all naturalhazards is $327 million (0.09 per cent o GDP PPP),

while the 200-year return period (an event with0.5 per cent probability o exceedance, generallycorresponds to a catastrophic event) loss is $1.032billion (0.27 per cent o GDP PPP).


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Malaysia: Disaster events and socio-economicimpact by hazard type (1970-2009)

Figure 18 Figure 19Malaysia: Disaster events and socio-economicimpact by 5-year periods (1970-2009)


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5.6 Myanmar

Overview

Percentage distribution of reported disasters in MyanmarFigure 20


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Average annual economic loss ($ million) of MyanmarFigure 21

Regional settingMyanmar lies between 932 N and 2831 Nlatitude and between 9210 E and 10111 Elongitude. The country is bordered by China onthe northeast, Laos on the east, Thailand on thesoutheast, Bangladesh on the west, India on thenorthwest and the Andaman Sea/Bay o Bengalon the south and southwest. Myanmar has a totalpopulation o 48.138 million (2009) with a totalland area o 676,578 sq km. The country has aland boundary o 5,876 km and coastline o 1,930

km. The topography is characterized by centrallowlands, which are ringed by steep, ruggedhighlands. Based on topographic condition,Myanmar is divided into three parts the westernranges (Himalayan ranges that divide India andMyanmar), the central plains (Ayeyarwadi deltaand other river basins) and the eastern hillyregions (Shan Plateau). Hkakabo Razi is the highestpoint o Myanmar with an elevation o 5,881 mabove mean sea level and the Andaman Sea is thelowest point (0 m). Ayeyarwadi is countrys longest

river and the major part o Myanmars populationlives in this river valley.

Myanmar has a tropical monsoon climate.

However, due to diverse topographic conditionsthe climate varies widely within the country.The country has a cloudy, rainy, hot, humidsummer during the southwest monsoon (June toSeptember) and a less cloudy, scanty rainall, lowerhumidity, mild temperature during the northeastmonsoon (December to April). The averagetemperature in Myanmar is 27C. The highestand lowest monthly average temperature rangesrom 38C in April to 13C in January. The countryreceives an average rainall o 776 mm per year.

Hazard profleMyanmar is one o the most vulnerable countriesto natural hazards, including cyclonic storms,oods, earthquakes, tsunamis, orest fres,landslides, and epidemics. Figure 20 shows thehazard-specifc distribution o various disastersthat occurred in the country or the period 1970-2009.

Having a long coastline along the western part o

the country, the Bay o Bay o Bengal is regardedas a cyclone vulnerable area. Being a heavy rainallcountry, Myanmar suers rom oods in the mid-monsoon period o August to October (2005


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Country Report, ADRC). The complex topographyo this mountainous country, its high rainall levels,and the large number o glaciers mean thatMyanmar is highly exposed to the ood hazard.

Analysis o disaster data shows that the country isseverely aected by cyclonic storms. The recenttropical cyclone Nargis o May 2008 killed 138,366people, aected about 2.42 million people, andcaused an estimated economic loss o $ 4.0

billion.

The single major Tsunami event o 26th December2004 caused a major disaster in the country bykilling 71 people, aecting 15,700 people andcausing an economic loss o $ 500 million.

Flood events are also very requent in the country.There were 17 ood events in the past threedecades. The ood events o 1991 and 1992together killed 28 people, aected 364,601 people

and caused an economic loss o $ 135 million.

Landslide hazard is also signifcant in Myanmar.

Myanmar lies in a region with moderate to veryhigh seismic hazard (GSHAP, 1998). The seismichazard in the northern part o the country inthe Kachin state is very high in comparison tosouthern part o the country. There are threeregions o earthquake epicentres concentrationin Myanmar. The frst one lies along the eastern

oothills o Rakhine Yoma, Chin Hills and NagaHills. The second zone is located along theSagaing acet, the third zone is situated along thenorthern edge o Shan plateau south o Mogok.These belts are closely related to the tectonics oMyanmar. Large earthquakes occurred in Bagoin 1930, in Yangon in 1970, and in Pagan in 1975(2003 Country Report, ADRC).

Risk profleVulnerability indicators such as the number odisaster events, deaths, aected population andeconomic losses have been plotted against hazardtypes as well as or 5-year intervals covering the40-year period 1970-2009. Figure 22 (a, b, c) shows

the plots o the total number o deaths, aectedpopulation and economic losses against eachhazard type, while Figure 23 (a, b, c) presents thesame variables plotted against 5-year periods.

Figure 22 shows that among natural hazards,cyclones (storms) caused the largest number odeaths (138,864), ollowed by oods (364), tsunami(71), landslides (41), epidemics (40), and orest fre(8). Cyclones aected the largest population (2.738

million) and caused the highest economic loss($4.011 billion).

The period 2005-2009 (Figure 23) was the worstin terms o number o deaths (138,501), numbero aected people (2.658 million), and in terms oeconomic loss ($4 billion), mainly caused by the2008 cyclone Nargis on May 02-03, 2008.

Floods had the highest requency (0.43), ollowedby cyclones (0.18), earthquakes, landslides, orest

fres, and epidemics with the same requency(0.05). The death rate was highest or cyclones(3,472), ollowed by oods (9). The relativevulnerability was also highest or cyclones (72.12),ollowed by oods (0.19) and landslides (0.02).

Cyclones are the dominant risks in Myanmar(Figure 21), with an economic AAL ($147.4 million),ollowed by tsunami ($14.3 million), oods ($6.4million), and orest fres ($0.8 million).

The 20-year return period (an event with 5 percent probability o exceedance) loss or all naturalhazards is $873 million (1.54 per cent o GDP PPP),while the 200-year return period (an event with0.5 per cent probability o exceedance, generallycorresponds to a catastrophic event) loss is $3.093billion (5.48 per cent o GDP).


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Myanmar: Disaster events and socio-economicimpact by hazard type (1970-2009)

Figure 22 Figure 23Myanmar: Disaster events and socio-economicimpact by 5-year periods (1970-2009)


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5.7 Philippines

Overview

Percentage distribution of reported disasters in PhilippinesFigure 24


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Average annual economic loss ($ million) of PhilippinesFigure 25

Regional settingThe Republic o Philippines, comprising omore than 7,100 islands in Southeast Asia, isan archipelago between the Philippine andSouth China Seas. The country is bounded bySouth China Sea in the west, Pacifc Ocean inthe east, Sulu and Celebes Sea in the south andthe Bashi Channel in the north. It covers a totalarea o 300,000 sq km and has a population o97.977 million (2009). It has three major islandgroups- Luzon in the north, Visayas in the middle

and Mindanao in the South. The topography oPhilippines is mostly mountainous with narrowto extensive coastal lowlands. Most o themountainous islands

synthesis report on ten asean countries disaster risk assessment

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