Tackling Gun Crime: Tackling Gun Crime: What research can tell usWhat research can tell us

Chris Lewis, Dan SilverstoneChris Lewis, Dan SilverstoneUniversity of PortsmouthUniversity of Portsmouth

Jayanthi SanthanamUniversity of Liverpool

Sources of information

• Home Office Statistics• Home Office Policy analyses (eg TGAP)• Police intelligence• ACPO sources (eg NBIS)• Academic research:

Interviews with offendersFocus groups (offenders, community, police)Modelling

Portsmouth research

• Brent Research (interviews with offenders: police: local databases)

• Home Office Research (80 interviews: London, Manchester, Nottingham, Birmingham)

• MAGNET Modelling (Manchester)

Gun culturesMorality of firearm possession• Half indicated firearm possession acceptable under some

circumstances • Useful distinction between acceptability and need

“I wouldn’t say there is ever going to be a time when it’s acceptable but there’s always a need… The need is when you’re under pressure and you’re threatened.” (West Midlands)

• Inability of police to protect them“If your life was in danger… You know the police are not on your side and there’s nothing you can do… That’s self-defence, right. Then you have to protect yourself, any way you know of.” (London)

• Worst case scenario considerations“…I’d rather carry it with a chance of getting a prison sentence than getting killed, or something happen to me where I get badly hurt.” (Nottinghamshire)

Gun cultures

Plural Gun Cultures: two ‘ideal types’

Reflects ‘changing criminal culture’ theme

1. Instrumental gun culture

– Guns used only for offensive criminal purposes

2. Complex gun culture

– Role of firearms more generalised

– Three key themes:• Ascendancy of criminal role models

• Market in illegal drugs: systemic violence

• Cultures of gang membership

Policy proposals

1. Tackling the market in illegal firearms

• Converted imitation firearms• Realistic imitation firearms• Ammunition• Circulation of illegal firearms• Tackling attitudes

Policy proposals

2. Criminal justice system

• Sentencing• Victim/witness protection• Policing• Civil law

Policy proposals

3. Diversion from crime

• Perceptions about drug dealing• Criminal role models• Employment• Enhance youth service provision• Gang disruption and mediation

4. Harm reduction in the criminal economy• Seek to minimise levels of violence within the criminal

economy

What is a Model?

Representation of Reality - e.g., aircraft

SIMPLE MODELS CAN BE OF HELP!

PRISON (P) RESISTANT (R)

SUSCEPTIBLE (S)

USER (U)

birth

NAIVE (N)

Depends on the availability of guns, G.

NSPUR

MODEL

death

death

death

death

What can we learn from our model?

PrisonUser

INTERVENTION 2

TARGETING SUSCEPTIBLE IN THE COMMUNITY

e.g. targeting non-firearm offenders to reduce escalation of activities to gun use

PRISON (P) Resistant (R)

Susceptible (S)

USER (U)

birth

Naïve (N)

Depends on the availability of guns, G.

NSPUR

MODEL

death

death

death

death

What is the effect of interaction between susceptibles and users in prison?

WHAT IF A SMALL PROPORTION OF GAOLED SUSCEPTIBLES REOFFEND AS USERS ON RELEASE?

Non-firearm offenders learn how to acquire & use guns

PRISON (P) Resistant (R)

Susceptible (S)

USER (U)

birth

Naïve (N)

Depends on the availability of guns, G.

NSPUR

MODEL

death

death

death

death

Effect of interventions on gun crime

• Large Reduction

– Targeting non-firearm offenders

– Gun Control

– Increasing conviction or detection rate

– Reduce interactions in prisons

• Little effect

– Interventions for ALL naives (e.g. school children)

– Reducing re-offence rate