“tanker seminar” madrid 19 may 2010 peter m swift, md intertanko

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“TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

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Page 1: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

“TANKER SEMINAR”

Madrid19 May 2010

Peter M Swift,MD INTERTANKO

Page 2: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Tanker Seminar

• INTERTANKO• Tanker Shipping’s Record• Key issues• GHG Emission Reductions• Piracy• Other commercial/operational issues• Markets and more• Incident data

Page 3: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

INTERTANKO Today

260 + members operating ca. 3,100 ships > 75% of the independent oil tanker fleet and > 85% of

the chemical carrier fleet

300 + associate members: in oil and chemical tanker related businesses

15 Committees – 5 Regional PanelsPrincipal Offices – London and Oslo

Representative Offices in US, Asia and BrusselsObserver Status at IMO, IOPC, OECD and UNCTAD

International Association of Independent Tanker Owners

Page 4: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

INTERTANKO’s Strategic Objectives

To develop and promote best practices in all sectors of the tanker industry, with owners and operators setting the example.

To be a positive and proactive influence with key stakeholders, developing policies and positions, harmonising a united industry voice, and engaging with policy and decision makers.

To profile and promote the tanker industry, communicating its role, strategic importance and social value.

To provide key services to Members, with customised advice, assistance and access to information, and enabling contact and communication between Members and with other stakeholders.

Page 5: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

                     

                                    

Global dependence on oil tanker transportation

World Oil Consumption 3.8 billion ts

Transported by sea 2.4 billion ts

> 60% transported by sea

Page 6: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Tanker Incidents and accidental pollution

Number incidentsNumber incidents

Based on data from LMIU, ITOPF + othersBased on data from LMIU, ITOPF + others

0

210

420

630

840

1050

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

0

120

240

360

480

600

Misc/Unknown

Fire/Expl

Hull & Machinery

Grounded

Coll/Contact

Oil pollution

Page 7: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Accidental oil pollution from tankers

Based on ITOPF/FearnleysBased on ITOPF/Fearnleys

1000 ts spilt

0

700

1,400

2,100

2,800

3,500

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

0

21

42

63

84

105

1000 ts spilt

'000 bntonne-miles

- 63% -3% -83%

1000 bn tonne miles trade

Page 8: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Oil price and freight rate – real and nominal

USD per barrel

0

20

40

60

80

10019

7019

7119

7219

7319

7419

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

09

Nominal price Arab Light

Real price Arab Light

Nominal freight rate AG-West

Real freight rate AG-West

Deflated by the Consumer Price Index (USD)CPI* index 1982-84=100

Page 9: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Tanker Shipping’s GREEN Credentials

• This car, weighing one tonne, uses 1 litre of fuel to move 20 kms

• This oil tanker uses 1 litre of fuel to move one tonne of cargo 2,500 kms

– more than twice as far as 20 years ago

Page 10: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Investment in New Tonnage - Move to Double Hulls

• More than USD 500 billion invested since 2000 with the result that ~95% of tanker fleet* double hulled by end 2010* over 10,000 dwt

622

5159

67 68 73 78 84 91 9694

78

4941

33 32 27 22 16 9 4

0

20

40

60

80

100

1991

1997

End 0

2

End 0

3

End 0

4

End 0

5

End 0

6

End 0

7

End 0

8

End 0

9

End 1

0

SH/DB/DS

DH

% dwt share:

Page 11: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Average age of tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt

Based on LRFairplayBased on LRFairplay

6

8

10

12

14

1619

70

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Average Age - Years

Page 12: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Tanker Industry is accustomed to being under the spotlight

Watched by:• Regulators• Politicians• Public

Licences to trade rigorously applied by:

• Flag states• Classification Societies• Insurers• Charterers

Monitored by:• Coastal and Port states

Page 13: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Key Issues for Tanker Owners Today

• Establishing and maintaining an international framework of consistent regulations and standards

• Delivering best environmental performance

• Ensuring availability of good people (and quality ships)

• Ensuring the welfare and well-being of ships’ crews

• Meeting the challenges of Piracy

Page 14: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Establishing an international framework of consistent regulations and standards

Shipowners supporting:

• International rather than unilateral legislation• Ratification of IMO (and ILO) Conventions• IMO Member State Audit scheme (Flag & Coastal

States) • Harmonisation and uniformity across Port State

Control regimes• Development and Application of Common Structural

Rules for Tankers• Classification societies’ procedural requirements,

unified requirements and unified interpretations• Greater uniformity in chartering practices and

standards

Page 15: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Delivering best environmental performance

• Air emissions

- Green House Gases

- Exhaust Gas emissions (Annex VI & its revisions)

- VOC emissions

• Spill Prevention and Response Planning• Ballast Water management • Biofouling• Antifouling systems• Ship Recycling• Port Reception Facilities (adequacy & affordability) • Waste management (onboard and ashore)• Radiated Noise pollution• Cetacean strikes

Page 16: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Ensuring availability of good people - recruitment, training and retention

Both a quantity and quality challenge !

Recruitment initiatives covering:

• Raising awareness of the industry:

- www.maritimefoundation.com and Careers outreach programme - www.shippingfacts.com - www.careers-at-sea.org and DVD: Careers in International Shipping - www.bimco.org/Corporate%20Area/Seascapes.aspx

• Attracting entrants to the Maritime Professions (IMO: “Go to Sea” and other industry campaigns)

Human Resources are respected as an asset, not treated as a cost !

Page 17: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

The Maritime Industry Knowledge Centre

www.maritimeindustryfoundation.com

OBJECTIVES

To improve the image of shipping

To heighten awareness of international shipping

To attract young people both to the seafaring professions and to careers onshore

Page 18: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Ensuring availability of good people - recruitment, training and retention

Both a quantity and quality challenge !

Training and retention initiatives covering:

• Provision of Cadet berths and training facilities on ALL new ships and maximum utilisation of cadet berths on existing ships

• Revision of STCW Convention• Development of Tanker Officer Training Standards

(TOTS), covering proficiency and experience, as the industry standard

• Establishment of Seafarer Focus Groups to provide feedback of experiences

Page 19: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Ensuring welfare and well-being of ships’ crews

Initiatives covering: • Unjustified criminalisation• Support for IMO-ILO guidelines on Fair Treatment of

Seafarers (in event of Maritime Accident)

• Improved conditions for shore leave and access • Reduction in number of inspections• Less bureaucracy and associated paperwork• Guidelines for safe handling of cargoes and fuels,

tank cleaning and entry• Greater clarity in Operating Manuals• Guidelines on implementing ILO Convention on

“work and rest hours” • Higher standards of accommodation as industry

“norms” (including e.g. access to internet, etc.)

Page 20: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Other current commercial/operational issues

• Mercury in crudes

• Chinese Marine Pollution Regulations

• Sanctions on oil products to Iran

• Model clauses – Piracy, Vetting, Virtual arrival

• Facilitation payments

• “Smart vetting” – multiplicity of inspections

• Conditions of Class project

• Reaction in the USA to Deepwater Horizon spill

Page 21: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

• Key Dates

• Outcome of COP15

• IMO (MEPC) Programme

• “Virtual Arrival”

• Industry study/TEEMP/Other

Low Sulphur Fuel Issues

Greenhouse Gas & Low Sulphur

Emissions

Page 22: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Shipping’s GHG Emissions

Selected Key Dates

12/2009 UNFCCC COP15 Meeting, Copenhagen3/2010 IMO MEPC 60

3-9/2010 Industry Study Group5-6/2010 UNFCCC, Bonn5 to 8 /2010 IMO MBM-Expert Group6-7/2010 IMO MEPC Intersessional

9-10/2010 IMO MEPC 6110-11/2010 UNFCCC COP16 Meeting, Cancun

7/2011 IMO MEPC 6212/2011 EU Deadline for IMO/International Agreement

Page 23: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

IMO/MEPC Challenge remains !

IMO Principle:

“No More Favourable Treatment”

Versus

Kyoto Protocol principle:

“Common But Differentiated Responsibility”

Page 24: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

COP15, Copenhagen 2009

What was the outcome ?

• NO targets• NO resolution of Kyoto/IMO Treaty conflict

• NO direct reference to international shipping in Copenhagen Accord

No change yet !

Page 25: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

IMO Programme

To develop:

EEDI for new ships

SEEMP & EEOI for all ships

and, if possible/needed:

Market Based Measure (Instrument) for shipping

Page 26: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Intersessional Working Group

To improve the text for mandatory requirements of EEDI and SEEMP in terms of:

• coverage of ship types and ship sizes for the EEDI;• establishment of EEDI baseline(s); • frequency of reducing the mandatory value of EEDI

(reduction in 3 phases); • reduction rate from the baseline for the phases for the

EEDI;

To develop various guidelines:• on the method of calculation of EEDI;• for the calculation of baselines for attained EEDI;• to support the regulatory framework for verification of the

EEDI

Page 27: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

MBM – Expert Group

Group of MBM schemes which would require all ships to pay a contribution:

1. International Fund for Greenhouse Gas emissions from ships – suggested by Denmark and supported and complemented by some other Administrations such as Cyprus, Marshall Islands and Nigeria.

2. Global Emission Trading System for International Shipping, as proposed by Norway, France and Germany; and a Global Emissions Trading System for GHG Emissions from International Shipping, as proposed by UK.

Group of MBM schemes which provide rewards to more energy efficient ships:

3. Leveraged Incentive Scheme based on the International GHG Fund - proposed by Japan.

4. Trading with Efficiency Credits based on Efficiency Standards for All Ships - proposed by the USA.

5. Vessel Efficiency System - proposed by the World Shipping Council.

Page 28: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Virtual Arrival OCIMF /INTERTANKO project

Virtual Arrival is all about managing time and managing speed.

It’s not about blanket speed reduction to match current market conditions.

Virtual arrival is about identifying delays at discharging ports, then managing the vessel’s arrival time at that port/terminal through well managed passage speed, resulting in reduced emissions but not reducing capacity.

Page 29: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Virtual Arrival - Summary

• Cooperation between Charterer (Terminal Operator) and Owner

• Speed is “optimised” when ship’s estimated arrival is before the terminal is ready

• Owners and Charterers agree a speed adjustment

• May use an independent 3rd party to calculate / audit adjustment

• Owners retain demurrage, while fuel savings and any carbon credits are split between parties

Next Steps:• OCIMF-INTERTANKO running joint workshops• Charter Parties being reviewed (INTERTANKO/BIMCO/BP/Chevron)

– indemnity and liability issues, including bills of lading• Individual oil majors and owners “trialling” system• Bulk carrier sector examining feasibility

Page 30: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

GHG emissions - OTHER

TEEMP – Tanker Energy Efficiency Management Plan

Industry Study – RT, OCIMF, WSC:

Achievable targets ?

Cooperation with others – e.g. Carbon War Room ?

Page 31: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Industry Study Group:Possible Abatement Measures

• Gas fuelled engines• Electronic engine control• Waste heat recovery• Air cavity lubrication• Contra-rotating propeller• Fuels cells as auxiliary

engines• Frequency converters• Exhaust gas boilers on

auxiliary engines• Energy efficient light

systems• Wing generator• Wind power – kite• Wind power – fixed sails

or wings• Solar panels

• Solar panels• Trim/draft optimising• Weather routing• Voyage execution• Steam plant operational

improvements• Speed reduction due to port

efficiency• Propeller condition• Speed reduction due to fleet

increase• Hull condition• Propulsion efficiency devices• Cold ironing• Engine monitoring• Reduced auxiliary power

usage

Page 32: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Low Sulphur Fuel Issues

• EU Sulphur Directive- 0.1% at berth requirement- Revision timetable- Finnish concerns & Annex VI Revision

• CARB requirements – legal challenge

• North American ECA

Regulation without recognition of the impact on seafarers Greater consideration of the ramifications of new regulations and legislation at IMO and elsewhere/Somebody has to make it work - or carry the can if it doesn’t !

Page 33: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Meeting the challenges of Piracy

Gulf of Aden / Somali Basin Guidance:

• Register Company and Ship with MSCHOA

• Plan for Transit• Following Best Management

Practices (V2) • Report regularly to UKMTO Dubai (or

MARLO)

Best Management Practices to Deter Piracy in the Gulf of Aden

and off the Coast of Somalia

(Version 2 - August 2009)

I n an effort to counter piracy in the Gulf of Aden and off the Coast of Somalia, these best management practices are

supported by the following international industry representatives:-

1. I nternational Association of I ndependent Tanker Owners (INTERTANKO)

2. I nternational Chamber of Shipping (ICS) 3. Oil Companies I nternational Marine Forum (OCIMF) 4. Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) 5. Society of I nternational Gas Tanker and Terminal Operators (SIGTTO) 6. I nternational Association of Dry Cargo Ship Owners (I NTERCARGO) 7. I nternational Group of Protection and Indemnity Clubs (I GP&I ) 8. Cruise Lines I nternational Association (CLI A) 9. I nternational Union of Marine I nsurers (I UMI ) 10. J oint War Committee (J WC) & J oint Hull Committee (J HC) 11. I nternational Maritime Bureau (IMB) 12 I nternational Transport Workers Federation (I TF) These best management practices are also supported by:- 1) Maritime Security Centre Horn of Africa (MSCHOA) 2) UK Maritime Trade Organisation (UKMTO Dubai) 3) Maritime Liaison Office (MARLO)

A problem in many regions, including South China Sea, Somali Basin and Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Guinea and South America !

Page 34: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Piracy: Development update

• Industry involvement via UN Contact Group/SHADE/IMO-MSC • Encouraging continuing Naval support but also a new strategy

for Western Indian Ocean

• Issues on under active discussion:- push for prosecutions – gathering/providing evidence- impact of US “Ban” on Ransom Payments

- increasing calls for the Arming of Ships

• Industry developing: Best Management Practices – Version 3 Guidance to companies, masters & crews on: - “Capture to Release” - the care of seafarers & others who have been hijacked

• New focus on the Gulf of Guinea / Malacca Straits

Page 35: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Markets and More !Tanker Markets Today ?

• Demand down, but recovering ?• Supply up, and still growing ?• Rates down, and ?

Page 36: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Markets and more

• Demand : World oil trade

• Supply : Ships on Order & Fleet development

• Tanker market

• Shipbuilding capacity

Page 37: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

World Oil Demand vs. GDP

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

61

98

1

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

% c

ha

ng

e (

ye

ar

on

ye

ar)

IMF GDP

Oil Demand

Source: Clarksons (September 2009)

Page 38: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Orderbook – All ships (>999GT)

Source: Clarksons, April 2010

Orderbook Development (All ship types)

Page 39: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Orderbook by ship type(as % existing fleet)

Source: Clarksons (September 2009)

33

64

41

15

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Tanker Chemical Bulk carrier Container ship LPG carrier

per

cen

tag

e o

f cap

acity

Page 40: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Tanker Contracting 1996-2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

901

99

6

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

mil

lio

n d

ead

wei

gh

t

Handy

MR

Panamax

Aframax

Suezmax

VLCC

Source: Clarksons, April 2010

Page 41: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Fleet Growth

-5

0

5

10

15

20

VLCC Smax Amax Pmax MR Handy

% c

ha

ng

e y

-o-y

2000-2009 2009 2010 2011

*Includes slippage, cancellation and removal ideas

Source: Clarksons, April 2010

Page 42: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Tanker Fleet Development

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

dea

dw

eig

ht

(mill

ion

)

10-24 tanker

handy

MR

Panamax

Aframax

Suezmax

VLCC

Source: Clarksons (September 2009)

Page 43: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Newbuilding Tanker Prices

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Ja

n-7

6

Ja

n-7

8

Ja

n-8

0

Ja

n-8

2

Ja

n-8

4

Ja

n-8

6

Ja

n-8

8

Ja

n-9

0

Ja

n-9

2

Ja

n-9

4

Ja

n-9

6

Ja

n-9

8

Ja

n-0

0

Ja

n-0

2

Ja

n-0

4

Ja

n-0

6

Ja

n-0

8

Ja

n-1

0

$ m

illi

on

VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR Product

Source: Clarksons, April 2010

Page 44: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Tanker Age Profile

0

100

200

300

400

500

19

70

-19

74

19

75

-19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

no

of

ve

ss

els

Handy

MR

Panamax

Aframax

Suezmax

VLCC

Source: Clarksons, April 2010

Page 45: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Tanker Fleet Comparisons

12 6 5 9 6

19

3833

21

29

1320

6968 6973 75

58

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR Handy

pe

rce

nta

ge

of

ex

isit

ing

fl

ee

t

non-double hull On Order Built since 2000

Source: Clarksons, April 2010

Page 46: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Where next for Single Hull Tankers ? Current trading status

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR Handy TotalFleet

% o

f si

ng

le h

ull

flee

t

Storage%

Inactive%

DomesticTrading%

NormalTrading%

Source: Clarksons, April 2010 (datasource: Clarksons/LLI)

Page 47: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Where next for Single Hull Tankers ? Trading beyond 2010 ?

Australia NoChina NoEU NoMexico NoRomania NoS Korea No*Philippines No*UAE No*

(*No official note sent to IMO yet)

Bahamas Yes

Barbados Yes

Liberia Yes

Marshall Isl. Yes

Panama Flag Yes

Japan Yes

Singapore Yes

India Yes

Hong Kong Yes**

(** Max. 20 years old)

Flag/Port State positions re MARPOL 13G trading up to the age of 25 years

United States N/A (OPA90)

Page 48: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Tanker sales for demolitionand VLCC freight rate

Source: INTERTANKO

m dwt USD / day

* Until week ending 4 September** Sales for demolition until 4 September*** Clarkson Freight rate AG-Japan week ending 4 September

0

6

12

18

24

30

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09*0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000VLCCs sales for demolition

<200,000 dwt sales for demolition**

VLCC freight rate***

Page 49: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Source: Baltic Exchange/INTERTANKO

USD/dayUSD/day

Average tanker freight rates (based on Baltic Exchange rates)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 8m09

VLCC AG-Japan, 250,000 ts

Suezmax Wafr-US 130,000 ts

Aframax N Sea-UKCont, 80,000 ts

Product Caribs-US, 38,000 ts

Page 50: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Market Forecast !

or

Page 51: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Lower Freight Rates & Fleet surpluses

Implications ?

• Challenge to maintain quality and standards, - e.g. maintenance, training

• Challenge to meet the issues of the day – e.g. including environmental challenges

Potentially made even worse if new ships are of low standard ?

Page 52: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Shipbuilding capacity

• A future unknown factor !

Page 53: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Shipbuilding output and forecast

Source: Worldyards/INTERTANKO Aug 09

m cgtm cgt

2631 33

38

26

26

55

42

15

3 0

914% 26

38%

4876% 62

95%67

99%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Available capacity

Orderbook

Historical deliveries

Page 54: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Shipbuilding output potential

Source: Worldyards/INTERTANKO Aug 09

m cgtm cgt

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Availability small

Availability big

Orderbook small

Orderbook big

Deliveries small

Deliveries big

Worldwide estimates in m cgt - small and big ships (Aug 09)

Page 55: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Shipyard output potential - surplus

Implications ?

• Distressed sales / lower prices

• Quality and standards maintained or weakened

• Pressure on suppliers and sub-contractors

• Greater customer focus & customisation

• and any government interventions ?

Page 56: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Incident data

• Learning from feedback and analysis

• Sharing information

Page 57: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Tanker Incidents and accidental pollution

Number incidentsNumber incidents

Based on data from LMIU, ITOPF + othersBased on data from LMIU, ITOPF + others

0

210

420

630

840

1050

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

0

120

240

360

480

600

Misc/Unknown

Fire/Expl

Hull & Machinery

Grounded

Coll/Contact

Oil pollution

Page 58: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Sharing Information – Tanker incidents in 2009

Based on data from LMIU + othersBased on data from LMIU + others

Groundings 22%

Fire & explosions, 7%

Hull & Machinery

28% 82 incidents53 engine

related

Misc, 17%

Collision contact 26%

Collision/contact Grounding Fire/Explosion Hull & machinery Misc/unknown

Page 59: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Tanker hull & machinery incidents

Number of MACHINERY incidentsNumber of MACHINERY incidents

Based on data from LMIU, ITOPF + othersBased on data from LMIU, ITOPF + others

Year <10 years 10-24 years >25 years TotalAverage

age

2002 4 15 3 22 17.5

2003 3 8 3 14 18.4

2004 2 7 2 11 18.8

2005 9 20 5 34 17.6

2006 12 17 3 32 14.3

2007 20 25 3 48 13.2

2008 25 24 10 59 15.6

2009 18 22  13 53 16.7

Total 93 138 42 273 15.6

Page 60: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Muchas gracias / Thank you

For more information, please visit:www.intertanko.com

www.poseidonchallenge.comwww.shippingfacts.com

www.maritimefoundation.com

London, Oslo. Washington, Singapore and Brussels

Page 61: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Kyoto Protocol

• Established under UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and adopted in 1997

• Ratified by 181 countries – not the USA• Categorises Annex 1 (Developed) Countries and Non-

Annex 1 (Developing) Countries • Annex 1 Countries are committed to make GHG reductions

with set targets, but also flexible mechanisms • Runs through to 2012, with Conference of Parties (COP15)

to meet in Copenhagen in Dec 2009 to develop successor• Kyoto recognises “common but differentiated

responsibilities”, i.e. developed countries produce more GHGs and should be “responsible” for reductions

• Kyoto looks to IMO to address Shipping and ICAO to address Aviation, and as such these emissions are currently excluded from Kyoto targets

Page 62: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

IMO Principles for MBMs

1. Effective in contributing to the reduction of total global GHG emissions

2. Binding & equally applicable to all flag States3. Cost-effective4. Able to limit or effectively minimize competitive

distortion5. Based on sustainable environmental development

without penalizing global trade and growth6. Based on a goal-based approach and not prescribe

specific methods7. Supportive of promoting and facilitating technical

innovation and R&D in the entire shipping sector8. Accommodating to leading technologies in the field of

energy efficiency 9. Practical, transparent, fraud free and easy to

administer

Page 63: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Industry Study

Page 64: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Virtual Arrival

- a way to reduce emissions

Background

• Potential emission reduction for existing shipping said to be up to 15% (at no cost?)• Fuel represents 60-80% of operation/running costs for owners • What drives/restricts emission reduction?• It is recognised that commercial and practical restrictions sometimes apply• Virtual Arrival is a project that involves several stakeholders• Virtual Arrival implies co-operation and removing commercial restrictions

Page 65: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Virtual Arrival- a way to reduce emissions

by taking advantage of known inefficiencies in the supply chain andreducing speed when the terminal is not ready to discharge the cargo In addition to directly reduced emissions, other benefits are:• Reduced congestion and emissions in the port area • Improved safety• Reduced use of fuels• Potentially increased use of weather routing Important pre-conditions:•  The safety of the vessel remains paramount• The authority of the vessel’s Master remains unchanged• The basic terms of trade remain the same

Page 66: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

What is needed to do to make Virtual Arrival work?

1. A known delay at the discharge port2. A mutual agreement between two (or more) parties to

adapt the ship’s arrival time to take advantage of the delay3. An agreed Charter Party clause that establishes the terms

for reducing the speed to adapt to the new arrival time4. An agreement on how to calculate and report the Virtual

Arrival and the performance of the vessel5. This may involve a Weather Analysis Provider (WAP)6. OCIMF/INTERTANKO and class are producing transparent

standards for verification of WAPs

But mainly it’s a win–win situation for all,based on trust and transparency

 

Page 67: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Squeeze on costs = Squeeze on Quality ?

• Challenge to maintain quality and standards, - e.g. maintenance, training

• Challenge to meet the issues of the day – e.g. including environmental challenges

Page 68: “TANKER SEMINAR” Madrid 19 May 2010 Peter M Swift, MD INTERTANKO

Acting together- examples

• Pilotage in international straits as per IMO recommendations

• Development of a Marine Electronic Highway

• Establishment of a lifeboat user group with manufacturers to seek remedies for shortcomings

• Campaign to ensure availability of safety-related information on the characteristics of dangerous cargoes

• Development of Incident Information exchanges

• Development of guidelines on tanker maintenance and repair procedures